Cuts Galore; Roster Taking Shape

A couple rounds of cuts this week leave the Mariners with 40 players left in camp. First, the cuts:

INEVITABLE: C Mike Dowd, C Jesus Sucre, 1B Ji-Man Choi, "1B" Jesus Montero, INF Carlos Triunfel, INF Ty Kelly, INF Chris Taylor, INF Nate Tenbrink, OF Xavier Avery, LHP Nick Hill, RHP Logan Bawcom, RHP Logan Kensing, RHP Matt Palmer

No offense to anyone in the "inevitables." Several of them have potential MLB careers. These were all players on the wrong side of the numbers game and more or less around for the experience of big league camp until it was time to get serious.

SOMEWHAT INTERESTING: LHP Bobby LaFramboise, OF James Jones

I though LaFramboise might have a chance to crack the opening day roster since Oliver Perez is now in Arizona. I thought that James Jones would eventually get cut but not for a while longer with all the playing time he got. I'm actually relieved Jones got cut at this point because I wondered if Lloyd McClendon was too in love with him. He has things to learn in the minors.

So who will make the team?

ON THE DL: Hisashi Iwakuma, Taijuan Walker, maybe Stephen Pryor (still recovering from last season). That brings us down to 37 players.

LOCKS (18): C John Buck, C Mike Zunino, 1B Justin Smoak, 2B Robinson Cano, 3B Kyle Seager, INF Willie Bloomquist, OF Dustin Ackley, OF Corey Hart, OF Logan Morrison, OF Michael Saunders, LHP Charlie Furbush, RHP Scott Baker, RHP Danny Farquhar, RHP Felix Hernandez, RHP Yoervis Medina, RHP Erasmo Ramirez, RHP Fernando Rodney, RHP Tom Wilhelmsen

I know Scott Baker is a non-roster invitee, but he just got moved from a start against the Angels to play in a minor league game. The M's open up the season against the Angels, and Baker has already faced them twice. Doubtful these facts have nothing to do with the change.

The remaining battles:

Shortstop: Brad Miller vs. Nick Franklin - I guess this is a battle because the Mariners say it is. Brad Miller should have been the favorite coming into the spring, and even if he wasn't he's had a very good spring that should shore up his standing. I almost included Miller as a lock. Nick Franklin will go to AAA unless/until he is traded.

Capable centerfielder on the bench: Abe Almonte vs. Endy Chavez - The cuts have at least made this battle clear, unless you also believe Cole Gillespie could play center field regularly. Quite honestly, I almost made Almonte a lock for this spot because he's already on the roster and Chavez quietly slipped to below replacement level last season and he's not getting any younger.

Fourth and fifth starters in the rotation: LHP James Paxton, LHP Randy Wolf, RHP Blake Beavan - I think Paxton nearly has a rotation spot nailed down given the control he's shown this spring. Beavan and Wolf are in an interesting duel though...or sort of interesting, at least. The reality is that the whoever wins this spring training battle will get booted from the rotation once Taijuan Walker or Hisashi Iwakuma is healthy, and neither project to sit out a ton of starts to begin the season. Still, Wolf vs. Beavan is at least too close to call. Beavan has outperformed Wolf, for what it's worth, but Wolf is more experienced and left-handed.

Bullpen lefty: Lucas Luetge vs. Joe Beimel - Again, younger guy verses veteran, though in a more limited role on the team. No idea how McClendon will choose with this one, though I'd simply stick with Luetge since he's already on the 40-man roster and Beimel isn't.

The last bullpen slot: This position could go to the odd man out in the rotation race or one of the remaining righties I am about to talk about. Both Zach Miner and Dominic Leone have appeared five times, which is tied for the most appearances by any M's pitcher this spring. It's a seven-way tie, so I don't want to make that too big of a deal, but playing time suggests that McClendon wants to see these guys for some reason. They have both done well for themselves, though I still like Carson Smith even more and he has performed very well in his 3.2 innings.

If you count up all the players you'll realized I totally ignored some that are still in camp. Those are folks I expect to go sooner rather than later.

There simply aren't interesting battles in camp this spring, unless you count the faux battle between Brad Miller and Nick Franklin. The other reality is that the winners of these battles simply get the first crack at the job and there will be movement during the season. We already know Iwakuma and Walker will be coming back, likely before April is over.

Still, there is something special about an opening day roster, and most positions have gone from an unruly glut to a few extra names after this week's cuts. The 2014 Mariners are taking shape.

One More For February

It's nice to have some games to talk about, even if they are meaningless ones. I also figured I should get one more post cranked out before March hits (though this is pretty late Friday night, so you will probably read it tomorrow, as in March 1). Whatever. Some notes on today's game, and perhaps this will morph into a weekly segment of sorts to keep track of spring training developments.

DOING THEMSELVES FAVORS

• Ji-Man Choi - It's hard to believe but the Mariners are crowded at first base (just, unfortunately with a pile of replacement level talent). Choi lacks power, but went 2-for-2 on Friday. He won't make the team out of camp, but a hot spring matters, especially with a new coaching staff. Brad Miller's strong spring last year played a role in his call-up midseason. Choi, particularly with Jesus Montero's weight concerns, has a chance to log more innings at first base than his complete lack of buzz suggests. Pay attention to him.
• Nate Tenbrink - Tenbrink is probably a bit old to be a prospect now, but injuries the past few seasons slowed his track to the majors. I like his versatility and I want him to show well in spring. He could be a surprising early call-up given how versatile he is. 2-for-3 days with a dinger help him stand out.
• Jesus Sucre - Sucre is known as a defensive catcher, so any hitting is gravy. He got some hits today and a torrid spring might give him a chance to challenge John Buck. Who knows. It's early, so I'm grasping for storylines.
• Carson Smith - I'm a believer in Smith, to the point that I think he is a dark horse to make the opening day roster. He quietly struck out 3 batters in relief today and also outshone fellow AA reliever Dominic Leone, who followed right after him. The injuries in the rotation might force several arms to move around the staff and open up a spot for a spring training surprise.

OOPS

• Ramon Ramirez - The veteran reliever threw a wild pitch and had a throwing error that let the lone Padres run score. Probably not a disastrous outing, but not good.
• Ty Kelly - Two strikeouts, no walks, for a guy that will live and die with his plate discipline. Not the best first game.
• Really, it's hard to find many bad performances in a 12-1 victory.

This spring is probably more important than last year's, if for no other reason than a new manager comes with a fresh perspective. Guys that perform well in spring are likely to get more opportunities with McClendon because he doesn't have much of a history with any of these players. It will be interesting to see who turns Friday's good game into a good week or two or whole month in the desert.

The Next Wave

The recent wave of promotions from AAA Tacoma has altered the M's farm system as much as the MLB roster. There aren't many of the M's top prospects that haven't been in the majors at this point. We are down to the big three - and of those three, I don't think Danny Hultzen stays down in AAA the whole season.

So who is worth watching in the M's farm system at this point? I have compiled a starting lineup, along with a left-handed and right-handed pitcher, with the following conditions:

1. No 2013 draft picks included
2. Nobody in AAA Tacoma included

The Mariners still have talent in the farm system, even with the limitations I've put on my search. Here are some players worth keeping an eye on, because some of them are bound to make the majors. Consider them the next wave of Mariners prospects:

2012 AFL Wrap-Up

I wrote an Arizona Fall League preview when rosters were announced back at the end of August. The league finished up play a few weeks ago, and the weekend after Thanksgiving seemed like a decent time see how M's prospects fared. The predictions/questions I had back in August now have answers:

2012 Fall Leaguers

The Arizona Fall League is a like a bonus month of minor league baseball where every team picks the players they want to send the most. As a result, the fall league often features many of baseball's most promising prospects. It's almost like a real-life prospect fantasy league. The rosters were announced on Wednesday.

The Mariners will send eight players to the Arizona Fall League. They are listed below with some brief comments on what they might stand to gain, and what to look for out of them: