The Biggest Trade In Mariners History

The Cliff Lee deal is probably hours away from being official. Word this morning is that somebody failed their physical (perhaps Aumont?), so maybe I am jumping the gun. I'll cross my fingers and say the deal still gets done somehow.

As of yesterday, there were still whispers of someone besides Lee coming to the Mariners, so perhaps we do not know all the details quite yet. Still, it's obvious that Cliff Lee is the centerpiece coming to Seattle, and Phillipe Aumont, Tyson Gillies, and JC Ramirez is the price the M's paid.

There's that whole Roy Halladay end to the trade too. That's kind of a big deal.

There are also reports that Michael Taylor will go to the A's for Brett Wallace, once Taylor officially goes to the Blue Jays in the impending blockbuster Lee-Halladay blockbuster duel deals.

As of now, including that aforementioned A's-'Jays side deal, four teams and nine players are involved at the least. It is a complex deal, and rather than go through the entire thing, I'll stick to this blog's title and muse about the Mariners.

The players the M's gave up, although young prospects, are guys we've heard about. Gillies was in the Futures game over the summer, and so many (including me) have written about him. He has tremendous speed, and coaches say power will start to pop through. Aumont has been on the radar ever since the M's made him their first round draft pick a couple years ago. As we saw in the World Baseball Classic, he has the kind of stuff to make guys like David Wright look completely overmatched. However, he does not have the control to do that on a consistent basis, as evidence by struggles in AA and the Arizona Fall League.

JC Ramirez (also known as Juan Ramirez) is an interesting third prospect in the deal. Scouts universally rave about his stuff and his mental make-up. Although I'm yet to see him, it seems that he looks like a top-of-the-rotation starter in the making. The catch is that his production is yet to match that potential, and he is on the verge of AA. Ramirez is still young, and I respect scout evaluations. However, prospects destined to be impact MLB players tend to "out-talent" others in low-level minor leagues, in my experience. Whatever flaws they have can't be exposed by the level of talent. That's not the case with Ramirez, though he has had flashes of brilliance.

Do I really have to say much about who the M's are getting? Cliff Lee is awesome. We saw him own the Yankees in the World Series. That's Lee at his finest. He is durable, he is a workhorse, and he is unflappable. He's worth at least double his $9 million salary in 2010. Lee also only has only one year left on his deal though.

I am still in shock about this deal. It's a total steal for the Mariners. Aumont is nice, but the M's have other power bullpen arms. David Aardsma isn't going anywhere for a few years (provided he stays as effective as he was). Mark Lowe is young too, and Josh Fields was in AA and the Fall League along with Aumont, and outperformed him at both levels. Aumont is a talented young pitcher, but redundant.

Lots of the same can be said about Tyson Gillies. I'm sad to see him leave, but Michael Saunders has already made the majors, Ezequiel Carrera should be in AAA to start 2010, and there's Dustin Ackley now too (although maybe he's the future at second base). At the MLB level, Gutierrez and Ichiro aren't going anywhere anytime soon. There is still a bit of a glut in the outfield, even without Gillies.

Lastly, JC Ramirez is far from a sure thing, considering he is yet to have good production. With the pitching depth Z has added the past year, and impending returns of Ryan Feierabend and Michael Pineda from injuries, JC's loss is more than manageable.

In other words, the Mariners are on the verge of acquiring a Cy Young award-winner in his prime for three prospects they already have replacements for in their system. That's a little different than the Bedard deal, agreed?

Furthermore, Cliff Lee will almost certainly be a Type A free agent, and if he leaves the Mariners, will even more certainly join a contender. That means if he walks, the M's will get two draft picks, the signing team's first-rounder, and a compensatory pick between the first and second rounds. So, even if Lee walks at the end of the year, Seattle should have a chance to directly replace two of the prospects lost with comparable (or maybe even better) ones. That's the worst case scenario in this deal.

Not bad, not bad at all.

Enough about risk management. The Mariners just acquired Cliff Lee, a Cy Young award-winner in his prime. They ripped headlines away from the Red Sox as they signed John Lackey to a monster deal. They dashed the Angels' hopes of acquiring Roy Halladay. They may very well have shifted the balance in the AL West with this deal.

Seriously, dream with me for a second. Let's say the M's beat out the Rangers and Angels for the AL West title. That's looking more and more reasonable by the day. Even without an offense that lights the world on fire, what team would want to face Cliff Lee and King Felix in a short series? Those are low-scoring games waiting to happen, and one of the lineups will have Ichiro and Chone Figgins at the top, and the other won't. That's a nucleus a team can ride to a championship. It's not enough by itself, but it is a long ways towards enough.

It's a whole bunch closer than Jose Vidro and Miguel Batista, that's for sure.

This is the biggest trade in Mariners history. Cliff Lee probably is not the greatest pitcher the Mariners have ever acquired in a trade. That honor has to go to Randy Johnson. However, Randy Johnson wasn't the Big Unit when the M's got him. He was an erratic, but promising, lefty. On the other hand, Cliff Lee is Cliff Lee. He is a finished product. He is a Cy Young winner. He threw a complete game shutout in game one of the World Series against the eventual world champions only a couple months ago. The Mariners have never acquired a player of Lee's caliber in his prime.

This is huge. This is what the big boys do. This is a statement. Even if the report of the failed physical makes the whole deal fall apart (which would be devastating), the statement has been made. Jack Zduriencik has the guts, the brains, and the skills to pull off mega-deals. I think we all saw that potential with the Putz trade, and all the rumors that swirled at the Winter Meetings.

It is no longer potential though. Z pulled off this deal. A failed physical would be an unfortunate glitch. Physicals don't happen until the sides of discussed and agreed to the deal though. (Honestly, I don't think a failed physical stops the deal at this point too)

The statement has been made. Angels, we're coming for you, and we will catch you. It's only a matter of time.

2009 AFL Rosters Released

Arizona Fall League rosters were released today, and seven Mariners will play for the Peoria Javelinas. Every franchise selects players from their system that they want to participate in the league. There are six teams total in the fall league, so five franchises feed each team. The Javelinas are comprised of Mariners, Brewers, Dodgers, Tigers, and White Sox players.

Usually, the AFL does not get much attention. It will get a little more this year though, because Stephen Strasburg will make his pro debut as a Phoenix Desert Dog. The AFL gives teams a chance to get extra work for a handful of players. This year, teams are mostly using it to accelerate the development of their top prospects, so on paper this is one of the more talented AFLs. Here is a closer look at each player the M's are sending:

• Dustin Ackley - Much like Strasburg, the second overall pick will debut in the Fall League. This was announced when Ackley signed, so it is no surprise at all. Gordon Beckham and Matt LaPorta played in the AFL the year after they were drafted, succeeded, and put themselves on the fast track to the majors. Ackley is certainly worth watching, because he seems capable of getting on a similarly fast track.
• Philippe Aumont - The Mariners put Aumont on the fast track to the majors when they sent him to the bullpen. He has scuffled in recent AA outings, but a strong showing in the AFL may prime Philippe for a promotion to AAA...or maybe even the Mariners bullpen. Once Aumont is ready, he will be up, and the team is clearly giving him every chance to make it as quickly as possible.
• Joe Dunigan - Lost in the shuffle of all sorts of stellar offensive performances in High Desert has been the steady production of Dunigan. It's partly because he is older than other High Desert prospects. Still, Joe has a nice blend of power and surprising speed for his size. He deserves more attention than he has received so far, and a nice showing in the AFL will help him garner it.
• Josh Fields - Fields and Aumont are now both in AA, and both project as late-inning relievers. It sure seems like they are competing against each other, and they will yet again in the AFL. Josh still struggles with consistency, and on top of that he has been injured. Time spent in the AFL should help him out as much as anyone. He'll never become more consistent without ample opportunities.
• Nick Hill - Nick seems to get stronger and stronger every year. He had been in the bullpen his entire time in the system until the second half of this year. The move did not faze Hill at all, as he continued to dominate in AA. I like his chances to make the 2010 Mariners better than any other Diamond Jaxx pitcher (that includes Aumont and Fields), and I like them even more now that he is going to get some work in the AFL.
• Carlos Triunfel - The top M's position prospect in many minds pretty much lost the entire 2009 season to a leg injury. This is his chance to get some of that season back. If he can shake off the rust and play well, perhaps he will still be in line for a promotion to AAA to start 2010.
• Anthony Varvaro - Varvaro has a great arm, but he lacks control, and is already 25 years old in AA. The Mariners need to decide what they think of him sometime soon. A little extra time in the AFL should help.

The Mariners are sending quite a bit of talent to the Arizona Fall League this year. It is a collection of players with high ceilings that are not that far from the big leagues. Between Ackley, Aumont, and Fields, the Mariners have all three of their most recent top draft picks going to the AFL. I thought Adam Moore and Matt Tuiasosopo might be heading to the league too, but it's hard to argue with this list. The 2009 AFL is more than worth keeping tabs on.

2009 West Tenn Diamond Jaxx At a Glance

My Mariners midyear organizational review continues with a look at their AA team, the West Tennessee Diamond Jaxx. It has been a tough year for the team, though they are hot right now with six wins in a row. Even with the winning streak, their overall record for the season is 38-48. Still, there are a few Mariners prospects on the team worth mentioning and watching in the second half of the season:

Phillipe Aumont, RHP - The M's 2007 first-round draft pick was recently promoted to West Tennesee from High Desert, and so far so good. The new M's regime switched Aumont to the bullpen because they feel his mentality is better suited for it, and it also puts him on a faster track to the majors. His stuff is ready for the majors (remember how silly he made David Wright look in the World Baseball Classic?), but it is a matter of consistency for Phillipe. Considering he is only 20 and still growing into his 6'7" frame, a little inconsistency is more than understandable. It is only a matter of when Aumont joins the M's bullpen, not if. I think at least half a season in Tacoma would do him good, but a strong spring training in 2010 could land him a spot on the opening day roster. I would definitely send Phillipe to the Arizona Fall League after this season for a little extra work.

Ezequiel Carrera, CF - With all the players the M's acquired in the Putz trade that have already contributed at the major league level, it is easy to forget about the younger prospects in the deal. Carrera was one of them, and all he is doing is batting .320 with a .438 on-base percentage and great speed at the top of the Diamond Jaxx lineup. He just turned 22 and should be in Tacoma by next year. Carrera is similar to High Desert prospect Tyson Gillies.

Josh Fields, RHP - Last year's first round draft pick has a 4.70 ERA so far, but in his case that is a terrible judge of the season he is having. Josh is all about a power fastball and power curve, and after nearly a year off thanks to how long contract negotiations were, he figured to be rusty. He was, as evidenced by his high walk rate. However, his batting average against is under .200, and he is striking out well over a batter per inning. Moreover, half his walks came in April, and his ground ball to fly ball ratio has gone from around .5 to 1 at the start of the season to around 1 to 1 now. Josh is getting the ball down and in the strike zone as he shakes the rust off. His stuff is already major league quality, so it is only a question of command. I would definitely send Fields to the Arizona Fall League once the season is over, and prime him to come into spring training next year and compete for a spot in the Mariners bullpen. He is closer than his season statistics indicate.

Greg Halman, OF - A break-out 2008 season transformed Halman from a toolsy talent to one of the M's top prospects. Just 21 years old, Halman is having an interesting season in AA. His batting average is only .215, which is not surprising with his 114 strikeouts and just 17 walks in 274 at-bats. His plate discipline leaves plenty to be desired. However, 34 of his 59 hits are for extra bases, including 20 home runs! Halman has serious power, especially for his age. He also has good speed, though his stolen base numbers have plummeted this year. Halman needs to work counts more, and shortening his stroke would not be a bad idea either. Still, despite major flaws that would sink most 21-year-olds in AA, Halman is staying afloat. He probably has the most raw talent of any Mariner farmhand.

Nick Hill, LHP - The 24-year-old West Point graduate has found a home in the bullpen this year. Though a southpaw, he has been more effective against righties, but the split is not too drastic even in a limited sampling size. Hill keeps the ball on the ground and strikes out more than his fair share of batters. He should be in Tacoma next year, but also could be a dark horse to make the M's 2010 opening day roster, like 2008 Diamond Jaxx pitchers Chris Jakubauskas and Shawn Kelley did.

Kyle Parker, RHP - The 24-year-old UW graduate is putting together a solid season for the Diamond Jaxx. He has been solid and productive at every level so far, and though nothing stands out, he is a local product on track to be in Tacoma next year. Parker reminds me a bit of Ryan Franklin as a prospect - nothing real flashy, but if he gets a chance in the majors, he may stick around for a while.

Justin Souza, RHP - Justin split last year between low and high A, pitching primarily out of relief. This year, he has pitched primarily as a starter, and despite the new level and role is putting up comparable numbers to his 2008 performance. Souza generally does not work deep into ballgames, so his home may ultimately be in relief. He is also a fly ball pitcher, though those fly balls do not leave the ballpark often. Souza's good command certainly helps.

Between Aumont, Fields, and Hill, it seems likely that at least one player currently on the West Tennessee roster will play for the Mariners at some point next year. Looking down the road (perhaps as early as 2011), Aumont and Fields could be an end of the game tandem unlike Seattle has ever had. Can you imagine King Felix or Brandon Morrow handing the game to those two after seven strong innings of work? It is fun to think about.

Tomorrow wraps up the minor league portion of the Mariners midseason review with a look at AAA Tacoma. It will be a bit of an anticlimactic finish because so much of the talent has been up with the Mariners already, but it is where any help from inside the organization this year will come from.

Aumont to AA

It just came across this afternoon that the Mariners have promoted RHP Phillipe Aumont from High Desert to West Tennessee. Aumont, a 6'7", 220-pound righty from Quebec, was the Mariners first round draft pick a couple years ago, and you may remember him from the World Baseball Classic. He caused a stir pitching for Canada out of the bullpen, when he loaded the bases against the USA, but then made the heart of the order look silly with his wicked two-seamer, and a slider that will be death to all righties if he can locate it somewhat consistently.

Perhaps in response to watching Aumont out of the bullpen in the WBC, the Mariners switched Aumont to the bullpen this year. In 29 appearances for the Mavericks in high A ball, Aumont pitched 33.1 innings, allowing 24 hits and 3 home runs, while walking 12, striking out 35, and posting a 3.24 ERA. He was getting better as the season went along though - in his past 10 outings, he had a 1.42 ERA, with 6 hits, 4 walks, and 17 strikeouts in 12.2 innings of work.

The timing is a little odd on the promotion. High Desert just clinched the first half title in the California League, and will be in the playoffs shortly. Any promotions figured to take place after that. I cannot find any injury news on Diamond Jaxx players though. Also, presumably Aumont is going to stay in the bullpen, but presumably the Mariners also want to develop Josh Fields as a closer, who is still in West Tennessee. Could he possibly be promoted to Tacoma in the next few days? Opponents are only batting .131 off Fields, but the real concern with him is control.

The Aumont promotion itself is not terribly surprising; what makes it interesting is the timing, and the lack of additional/corresponding promotions. Maybe keeping Morrow in the majors to transition him to starter and Aumont's promotion have nothing to do with each other, but they are both moves that make sense, yet are puzzling at the same time. Why all of a sudden is Morrow staying in the majors to stretch out? Why is Aumont in AA now? I get the sense that something is going on behind the scenes that is not public yet. Maybe it is just me looking for a bigger story where there is none, but some of the recent moves have not been adding up the way moves had been all year long.

Mariners Announce Spring Invitees

Yesterday the Mariners announced that they had invited 18 players not on the 40-man roster to spring training. For any of these players to make the team a player would have to be dropped from the 40-man roster and thus potentially lost to another team for nothing, so it stacks the odds against any of them. However, just last year P Brandon Morrow (75/81), P Arthur Rhodes (76/72), and C Jamie Burke (69/70) were in these players' shoes and made the opening day roster.

Every year three types of players are on this list: prized prospects that will not make the ballclub, but that the team wants to introduce to the major league environment, prospects the front office wants to take a closer look at, and veterans of either the majors or minors who could make it on the opening day squad, but more than likely are ticketed for AAA as needed organizational depth. Though prospects tend to get the headlines, I enjoy looking at the veterans because they have the best chance to make the team, and also because it showcases what I believe is Bavasi's greatest talent - finding players cast away by other teams that probably should not have been set free. He drives much nuts as a GM much of the time, but I admire his exceptional ability to find quality role players for cheap. Here is this year's list of spring training invitees:

P Phillipe Aumont (-/-) - Aumont definitely falls into the category of prized prospect with no chance to make the team. He will likely be compared to Morrow at some point, especially if he looks good in his first couple appearances, but he is much younger and even more inexperienced than Morrow was at this point last year. That being said, I am eager to get a chance to see how he does.

P Phillip Barzilla (59/63) - Barzilla is a 28-year-old lefty that had been in the Astros organization his whole career until now. He has major league experience, though only one-third of an inning's worth. I do not think he is much, but he was switched to the bullpen mid-season last year and posted a sub-1.00 ERA. I am guessing that is what prompted the Mariners to extend him an invite.

P Roy Corcoran (65/70) - Corcoran got cups of coffee in the majors in three different seasons with the Expos/Nationals, but spent all of last year in AAA at Albequerque, Florida's affiliate. He is a classic example of the kind of player Bavasi is great at finding. Corcoran is not a guy I would like to see working the late innings, but he is good enough to be a middle reliever on many ballclubs.

P Brodie Downs (56/66) - Downs is somewhere between "unique" and "intriguing." At 28 years old and a former 23rd round draftee, he does not seem to be exactly a prospect. However, he was drafted just last June, making him the only player besides Aumont invited to camp from the most recent draft class. His rating is the reflection of only 25.1 innings worth of work last season, so I do not know how well it reflects his actual ability. He is worth keeping an eye on.

P Stephen Kahn (50/68) - Kahn missed all of last season thanks to reconstructive knee surgery, so his rating is based on his 2006 numbers. A reliever, Kahn struck better than a batter per inning and kept his home run rate low, but also walked a bunch of batters and gave up a fair number of hits too. Much like Downs, he is a prospect the Mariners want to take a closer look at, but is quite unlikely to make the team.

P Kameron Mickolio (65/76) - I really like this guy, and so do the Mariners. He was drafted in the 18th round in 2006, but logged ample time in AAA last year and excelled. At 6'9" he is an imposing presence on the mound and has a bright future. Of all the prospects on this list, I think Mickolio has the best chance to make the team.

P Chris Reitsma (50/50) - Reitsma has really fallen off the table the last couple season, thanks in large part to injuries. If he has truly healed he may have some gas left in the tank and make a run at a spot in the bullpen. I think his chances are slim, but the real question is how much allegiance John McLaren has to him. If McLaren wants Reitsma on the roster, he will get every opportunity to make it.

P Arthur Rhodes (72/68) - Wisdom says that a pitcher in his late 30s coming off of major elbow surgery that made him miss all of last season would have almost no chance of making the team. However, this is Arthur Rhodes, and he is an exception for two reasons. First and foremost, McLaren remembers how dominant Rhodes was for the M's back in his prime, and without a doubt he would like to add Rhodes to the bullpen. However, beyond that, the numbers indicate that if he has recovered from the elbow surgery, he still has something to offer. Of all the veterans invited to camp, Rhodes has by far the best chance to stick.

P Robert Rohrbaugh (65/75) - Rohrbaugh has torn through the minors the past couple years rather quietly, only garnering attention the second half of last year when he was promoted to Tacoma and ultimately was named the Rainiers Pitcher of the Year. He was one of my darkhorses for the fifth starter spot until the M's signed Carlos Silva (75/74), but even without a spot to compete for on the roster, he will probably survive several cuts in spring training.

P Chris Tillman (46/78) - Many people are high on this former prep star, including the Mariners. They are treating him like a big-time prospect by inviting him to camp this year, though I think he is ultimately going to start the year in AA. I am not as sold on him as most, though I like his potential and do think he could take a big stride forward in 2008.

P Jake Woods (51/57) - He was a quality middle reliever in 2006, but struggled mightily in 2007. If he is sticking in the M's organization past March, he will be in Tacoma.

C Jair Fernandez (42/71) - Jair got invited most likely because the Mariners needed more catcher to handle all the pitchers. He is only 20 years old, but did not log even 200 at-bats in low A Wisconsin last year. He will likely be cut once enough pitchers are cut.

C Adam Moore (52/71) - Moore also gets an invite because of a need for catchers, but he may very well have received an invite regardless. He opened many eyes with an impressive season at Inland Empire, though it should be noted he was a bit old for the league at 23. He should open up the season in AA, and if he duplicates his performance last year he will become an even more interesting prospect.

C Brant Ust (56/61) - Much like Fernandez, Ust is here just for the pitchers. He is a 28-year-old utility player who did not even play much catcher last year in Tacoma. Still, it is a nice gesture by the team to give this career minor-leaguer a chance to play in a major league camp, even if it ends up being for only a few weeks.

2B Tug Hulett (66/72) - Hulett is a new-comer to the organization acquired in the Ben Broussard (73/72) trade. Hulett is not a star in the making, but he would be a good bench player. I would not be surprised if he hung around until one of the final cuts.

3B Mark Kiger (63/74) - Though Kriger has never appeared in a regular season MLB game, he has appeared in the playoffs with the A's in 2006! In fact, according to the Elias Sports Bureau, Kiger is the only player in major league history to make his major league debut in the playoffs. Last year he was in the Mets organization, where he spent most of his time in AA. He posted great numbers, though at 27 years of age he was rather old for the league. Kiger has played mostly third in his career, though he has played some at all infield spots. Kiger is another example of a quality role player that Bavasi has a knack for finding. He likely will not make the M's, but he should provide depth down in Tacoma.

3B Matt Tuiasosopo (51/70) - Tui has been invited several times to major league camp now, and it would still be stunning if he made the team. With that being said, I expect the team to give him a longer look this spring training, because I think he will ultimately start the year in Tacoma.

OF Bronson Sardinha (62/68) - Sardinha is a former first-round pick of the New York Yankees, and finally made the majors last year as a September call-up, appearing in only 10 games. His numbers were disappointing in AAA last year, but his combination of power and speed is intriguing, and at 24 years old he certainly could bounce back. Bronson is this year's version of OF Charlton Jimerson (59/69), except a little younger and a little better.

Mariners Sign Aumont

It took until the final day, but the Mariners were able to sign their first round pick, Phillipe Aumont. The young Canadian right-hander received a $1.9 million signing bonus, which is just a little bit higher than the suggested amount by Major League Baseball for the 11th pick this year, but right around the suggested amount for the same pick last year. The M's certainly did not break the bank for him like other teams had to do to get their players in the fold (see the Devil Rays, Royals, Cubs, Orioles, and Tigers). It may take a few weeks for Aumont to get a visa, so the chances of him getting in some minor league games before the end of the season are slim.

So, now that Aumont is signed, what exactly are the Mariners getting? At 6'7", 225 pounds, he is a big pitcher, and he already throws in the mid-90s consistently from a 3/4 arm slot, which is especially difficult on right-handed hitters. Scouts say Phillipe also has a slider which has shown flashes of greatness, but he has difficulty keeping on top of it and driving it down through the strike zone thanks to his arm angle. Furthermore, Aumont's mechanics aren't bad, but they are inconsistent, which is to be expected from a 6'7" 18-year-old.

However, there is no denying that the raw talent is there. Despite the noticeable inconsistencies in Aumont's stuff, he has dominated against some pretty good competition. Also, he is athletic and his innings have been limited by the Canadian national team, both factors that greatly reduce his injury risk as a professional.

I'll never be a big fan of drafting high-schoolers (especially pitchers) with high draft picks because the statistics show that they pan out at a much lower frequency than college players, but with that being said Phillipe Aumont is a high-schooler worth taking a risk on. The biggest trouble with prep pitchers is that many develop arm problems working their way through the minors, and the main causes seem to be a lack of athleticism and overuse at too young of an age, two things that won't be a concern with Aumont. His fastball alone should be enough to get him to the majors some day, but if he refines his delivery and develops that slider further, or some other off-speed pitch, then the Mariners should really have something on their hands.