Japan Series Recap

I like to write a game recap for the season opener. This isn't a blog that really does game-by-game analysis, but one game out of the year is fun. With a couple games (both in the wee hours of the morning), why not recap the "series" as a whole? Here are some unassorted bullet points, particularly if these games were just box scores for you:

Bedard Trade Finally Official

It may have taken the whole off-season, but SP Erik Bedard (96/94) is finally a Seattle Mariner officially. In the end it took five players to get him, OF Adam Jones (73/86), RP George Sherrill (86/83), SP Chris Tillman (46/76), SP Tony Butler (40/70), and RP Kameron Mickolio (65/80). Jones and Sherrill were both safe bets to be on the Mariners opening day roster, with Mickolio having a faint chance, and Tillman and Butler still far away.

A five-for-one swap definitely eliminates a bunch of the organizational depth, but it should be noted who was not in the deal as much as who was. To start with, though Jones was the Mariners' best young positional player, they still have OF Wladimir Balentien (70/81), C Jeff Clement (70/82), and SS Carlos Triunfel (43/79). Rumors were that the Orioles asked for Triunfel, so the Mariners have to get some credit for keeping him out of the deal. Also, though they gave up four pitchers, they did hold on to their best young one (outside of Felix of course), Brandon Morrow (75/81). In addition, it should be noted that Tillman, Butler, and Mickolio were all members of the 2006 draft class, and in my opinion the pitchers the M's drafted in 2007 look at least as good as the ones they selected in 2006, if not better. P Nick Hill (53/77), P Jake Wild (49/74), and P Robbie Dominguez (45/75), all members of the 2007 draft class, had strong showings in rookie leagues last year, and P Phillipe Aumont, the M's top pick from 2007, is yet to make his professional debut. Furthermore, though not from the draft, 19-year-old P Juan Ramirez (48/81) just made his professional debut in the organization this past summer. Ultimately, this trade certainly put a dent in the farm system, but it far from crippled the system. Former GM Pat Gillick left a very weak farm system for Bavasi, but to Bavasi's credit he has brought in guys like scouting director Bob Fontaine and built up the system to a point it has not been at since the mid '90s. Ultimately, there is little doubt in my mind that the system will be able to absorb the hit it just took in this trade.

However, are the Mariners really a better team with Erik Bedard? I am not so sure. He certainly makes the rotation better, even though he is booting out Morrow, who I think would have been a pretty good starter this year. Sherrill was arguably the best left-handed specialist in all of baseball last year, but the bullpen can handle the loss thanks to young southpaws Eric O'Flaherty (78/83) and Ryan Rowland-Smith (73/79). Actually, it would not shock me if O'Flaherty proves to be just as good as Sheririll next year.

Unfortunately, there is still the hole left by the departure of Jones that must be considered. The Mariners signed OF/1B Brad Wilkerson (69/68) to take his place, and in some ways the outcome of this trade falls on him. Personally, I think Adam Jones was going to be quite a bit better than the M's expected (I think he will approach Guillen's 2007 offensive production with vastly better defense), and I also think Wilkerson will not be as good as the M's expect. Wilkerson is a noticeable downgrade, and I do not think any other team in baseball would hand him an opening day job right now as the Mariners appear to be doing. I would at the absolute least make right field an open competition between Wilkerson and Balentien, and perhaps the M's will do this as well.

In the end, two factors will determine how good the Erik Bedard trade is. First, how much better Bedard is than Morrow. Second, how much worse Wilkerson (or potentially Balentien) is than Jones. I discussed how good I think Bedard is in a previous post, and under my rating system I think Bedard will be 6 to 8 points better than Morrow. On the flip side, I think Wilkerson will be about 8 to 12 points worse than Jones in 2008 (though I think Balentien would prove to be 5 to 10 points worse). All in all, this deal is about making the M's better now, and I am not convinced it does. If Bedard stays as good as he was this past year, there is no doubt that this is a fantastic deal for the M's. However, nothing about Bedard's career path predicted such a high level of excellence, though he looked like he would become a very good pitcher.

The unknown is so large in this trade because there are so many young players involved, and because the supposedly established ace to this point has had one incredible year, and it is unknown yet if it was a spike or the start of an epic run like Johan Santana (89/88) has enjoyed. I am definitely looking forward to seeing Felix Hernandez (83/90) and Bedard in the same rotation, and I am going to love this trade if Bedard goes out and tears up the AL just like he did last year. It could happen, but I do not think it is the most likely outcome. Likely, this is a lateral move for the current team talent-wise, though it also added payroll and hurt the farm system. This trade could go down as a great one, but it could also turn out to be a terrible one, and for me the risk is not worth the reward in this case. I credit Bavasi for not shying away from a bold move and aggressively trying to make the team better, but this is not a trade I would have done.

Bedard Rumors Continue to Swirl

Rumors concerning the Mariners acquiring SP Erik Bedard (96/94) from the Orioles refuse to die. The latest I have seen is that the M's are willing to part ways with OF Adam Jones (73/85) and RP George Sherrill (86/83), but the Orioles want in addition to those two either SP Brandon Morrow (75/81) or SS Carlos Triunfel (43/85). Currently, it appears the Mariners would prefer to include Triunfel between the two.

Jones, Sherrill, and Triunfel is an awfully high price to pay for any player. Erik Bedard was incredible last year (the only pitcher better than him last year according to my formula was Jake Peavy), but what he is actually worth needs to be examined further. Looking at his numbers, he exploded last year, and I doubt he will ever have a better year despite the fact he is only 28 years old. In fact, I really do not think he will reach the 94 rating my rating system projects for him next year. That is not to say Bedard will not be a great pitcher in the future, but to expect him to duplicate his 2007 output for the next several seasons is intrepid, to put it nicely. Taking Bedard's last three seasons and plugging them into my rating formula (with a slight injury adjustment), his rating drops to 86, with an expected decay to 85. That means Bedard is still a great pitcher, but the difference between a 96 rating and an 86 is significant.

After taking a closer look at Bedard, I think offering Jones and Sherrill for him is a fair deal. Baltimore needs a center fielder, and Jones fits that need perfectly, especially because he could become the black superstar that connects with the Baltimore community, which the Orioles covet badly. Though the Orioles would not receive a starter to replace Bedard in the trade, they added depth in the off-season by acquiring SP Troy Patton (61/78) and Matt Albers (59/63) in the Tejada trade, both of whom the team considers rotation candidates (I'm not as sold on them, but all that matters is if Baltimore believes in them). If they really wanted a starter, I would be willing to offer either Carlos Silva (75/74), Miguel Batista (76/72), or Jarrod Washburn (74/72), and get any one of those contracts off the books while making room in the rotation for Morrow. I doubt the Orioles would be interested in one of those three though.

As for the Mariners, Bedard would team with Felix Hernandez (83/90) and the mediocre, but effective, trio of Batista, Silva , and Washburn to turn the starting rotation into a decent, if not borderline formidable, group. Furthermore, though Sherrill would be missed in the bullpen, the M's have still have two very good bullpen lefties in Eric O'Flaherty (78/83) and Ryan Rowland-Smith (73/77), and Morrow would be pitching in the later innings as well. Adam Jones would also be missed, but Wladimir Balentien (70/80) is not a bad option, and there have been rumors the Mariners would sign Luis Gonzalez (79/74) if they were to trade Jones. So, it is not as if there would be a giant void in the outfield if Jones were to be traded, making it reasonable to say the upgrade Bedard brings to the starting rotation more than counteracts the loss of Jones in the outfield.

Still, it looks like the Orioles are not interested in only acquiring Jones and Sherrill for Bedard, and I would not be willing to offer much more for that. I would be willing to include INF Mike Morse (69/75) because there is no longer room for him on the 25-man roster thanks to INF Miguel Cairo (70/68), and Baltimore would be smart to take a look at Morse because he could fill their hole at shortstop, but I doubt that would be enough either. Bedard would be a great addition to the Mariners, but Baltimore's asking price is just a little too steep.

Mariners First Half Review

Nobody can be disappointed with the first half the Mariners just turned in. Between snowouts, struggles at the back end of the rotation (to put it lightly), injuries to Felix and several bullpen arms, and the stunning resignation of Mike Hargrove, the first half wasn't particularly easy. Yet somehow, through all that, the Mariners find themselves only two and a half games behind the Angels for the AL West lead. The team should get a collective pat on the back for a job well done, and that's largely what this post is going to be. Using my hitter and pitcher rating formulas, I have rated every player who has appeared for the Mariners this season. They are listed in order from best to worst.

Ichiro (95) - What more is there to say? Ichiro is at it again. Despite all the great seasons he has had, this is arguably his finest offensively, and defensively he is amazing. I know Ichiro has six gold gloves, but he's not getting the credit he deserves this year. He's right there with Ken Griffey Jr. and Mike Cameron in their best years in Seattle. Really, he is that good. If the M's get into the playoffs, only Magglio Ordonez can stop Ichiro from being the AL MVP.

Jamie Burke (88) - Once again, what more is there to say? In limited action, Burke has been sensational. To properly estimate Burke's value I should include AAA and/or MLB at-bats from previous years (which would knock his rating down considerably), but this is the M's first-half review and this is what he has done when he has played. I hope McLaren plays Burke a little more and gives Kenji more rest. It wouldn't hurt Kenji, and thanks to Burke it won't hurt the M's.

J.J. Putz (85/95) - J.J.'s "true" value is an 85, but an average reliever is a 65 instead of a 75. So, basically, Putz in his role is a 95, and there is no better closer in baseball. I never thought he could live up to last year, but he might be even better. Make no mistake, Putz is the best closer in Mariners history, and there is nobody else in baseball I'd rather hand the ball to in the ninth inning right now.

George Sherrill (84/94) - J.J. has turned games into eight-inning affairs, and George Sherrill has turned them into seven-inning ones. Hargrove used him pretty much solely against lefties, and admittedly that is tempting because nobody is tougher on lefties in all of baseball than him. However, it looks like McLaren knows that George is also pretty darn effective against righties too. Hideki Okajima got the All-Star nod, but Sherrill was just as deserving. Sherrill and Putz have re-captured the Rhodes-Nelson-Sasaki magic, if not taken it a step further.

Jarrod Washburn (83) - Rather quietly, Washburn is putting together a really good year. On a starting staff that's had consistency issues, Jarrod has really been a rock. He's no ace, but he's going to go six innings and keep the team in the game. Washburn has really earned his money this year, and should get a little more credit for the M's success this year than he has.

Felix Hernandez (80) - Felix's rating is adjusted to reflect his time on the DL, and with no adjustment it would've been 86. It's really amazing how off his game he can be and still end up being a really good pitcher. Felix looks like he has regained his form, and he could be heading for a monster second half.

Ben Broussard (79) - Relegated to the bench by Hargrove but called upon when injuries mounted, Broussard has been another real bright spot on the ball club. I hope McLaren gets Ben on the field more, because he's a more than adequate fill-in for Ibanez, Guillen, or Sexson.

Kenji Johjima (78) - Kenji has really trailed off in the last month, but he still had a great first half, especially for a catcher. I think a little more rest would be good for him, and luckily the M's have a surprisingly great back-up in Jamie Burke.

Adrian Beltre (78) - Beltre was red-hot as the break hit, and with the M's he has tended to put up much better numbers in the second half. This is the best first half he has had since being a Dodger, and it will be interesting to see if his surge continues.

Jose Guillen (77) - The Mariners took a risk when they signed this guy, but so far it could not have turned out any better. Guillen's range in right field leaves much to be desired, but he has provided some needed punch to the lineup.

Jose Vidro (75) - Vidro doesn't supply any power, but he does still know how to hit. He's not the most inspiring DH, but thanks to him the position is no longer the black hole that it was the last couple years.

Cha Seung Baek (74) - Baek's ERA doesn't show it, but he was really a solid starter for the M's. His rating would have been higher if not for going on the DL too. Baek is no ace, but he stepped up when Weaver was horrible and Felix went down with the arm injury. Baek also deserves more credit for the M's first half success than he has received.

Raul Ibanez (74) - After a career year, it should have been expected that Ibanez would regress some, but not this much. He's been a little banged up the whole year, but seems to be getting healthier, and with improved health his power seems to be returning. The offense will be even better if Raul can return to his career averages in the second half. Even if he duplicates his first half though, he's still serviceable.

Jose Lopez (73) - Jose's production doesn't match his talent, and it's because he still isn't very selective at the plate. He's slowly improving, but until he gets better this is about what to expect.

Eric O'Flaherty (73/83) - The whole bullpen is filled with unsung heroes, and O'Flaherty is another one of them. I thought he needed more seasoning in AAA, but he's proven me wrong. He's tough on lefties, but can also be stretched out and go multiple innings. His emergence has provided depth in the bullpen that wasn't expected.

Miguel Batista (73) - He isn't worth the money, but he continues to get better as the season wears on. He's now a consistent bet to pitch six innings and keep the M's in the game.

Ryan Rowland-Smith (70/80) - Surprised to see this guy so high? Granted, the vast majority of his innings are with the Rainiers this year, so this rating is pretty much a reflection of his AAA stats adjusted. However, The Hyphenated One has looked good in the limited chances he has had, and I hope the M's strongly consider keeping him in the bullpen for the remainder of the year. A trio of lefties like Rowland-Smith, O'Flaherty, and Sherrill could give the team a huge advantage.

Sean Green (69/79) - I also included Green's AAA numbers for his rating, and adjusted it accordingly. However, he has seen extended action with the Mariners this year and has forced himself into later roles thanks to the job he has done. His ERA is deceptive because it should be higher, but that doesn't take away from the really good job he has done.

Brandon Morrow (68/78) - I'm interested to see what the ballclub does with Brandon as other pitchers get healthy. He probably does have the best stuff of anyone down in the bullpen, but he's easily got the worst command. It all adds up to about an average reliever right now, though as he learns to harness his stuff he'll really be something. Personally, I would send Morrow down once Mark Lowe is healthy and start to develop him into a starter.

Yuniesky Betancourt (68) - Of the position players, Betancourt is the biggest disappoint this side of Richie Sexson. He's young though, and he was in a slump at the plate to end the first half. By the end of the year, I think his throwing problems will be mostly hammered out, and his batting average will be approaching .300.

Richie Sexson (67) - Here's the biggest disappointment on the team, and even Richie is showing signs of life. He's still got his power, and if he can have a second half as good as last year's, this offense could be really dangerous. I'm not sure he will rebound, but there is reason to believe he will.

Julio Mateo (64/74) - At this point, Mateo's adjusted AAA numbers have more weight than what he has done with the Mariners. It looked like Seattle had a hard decision with what to do with him after his assault charge, but thanks to the emergence of so many guys in the bullpen he shouldn't be with the team right now, even if he did not have any legal troubles.

Jeff Weaver (62) - How can Weaver's first half be summed up with one rating? Really, it can't, but given his horrendous start it's hard to fathom that his rating is even this good. I really have to give the M's credit for sticking with him.

Willie Bloomquist (62) - Willie's .272 batting average and two homers are much nicer to look at, but he's still a bench player, though a valuable one thanks to his versatility.

Jon Huber (62/72) - The focus is on Ramirez and Lowe as they rehab, but Huber's close to returning too. He's likely to stay in AAA once completely healthy, but he's another solid option to call up if someone gets injured.

Sean White (58/68) - White's injury has dampened his rating some, but at this point he shouldn't be with the team once he's healthy. The only problem is he'll have to be returned to the Braves if not put back in the bullpen. Maybe Bill Bavasi can go to the Braves and work out a "trade" that allows the Mariners to send White to Tacoma.

Horacio Ramirez (57) - The Ho-Ram era has been far from glorious, but he's a better option than Feierabend as the fifth starter. Plus, he has been much better than this over his career, so there is reason to believe that he can bolster the rotation in the second half.

Ryan Feierabend (51) - Speaking of Feierabend, here he is. His adjusted AAA numbers are factored in for his rating too, which really works in his favor thanks to some really rough outings he has had recently. The bottom is that he's just not ready right now, no matter how much departed manager Mike Hargrove likes his competitiveness and grit.

Chris Reitsma (50/60) - This isn't a very fair rating thanks to two DL stints, and trying to pitch through arm problems. Chris is another candidate to do much better in the second half, and I'm glad McLaren has decided to make him the primary set-up guy instead of Morrow.

Jason Davis (49/59) - Davis just got DFA'd, so the chances of him ever wearing a Mariner uniform again are pretty low. He was ineffectively wild in his brief Seattle tenure, but he did eat up some innings, which was worth something with how the first half schedule unfolded.

Jake Woods (46/56) - Woods was up at the beginning of the year for a little bit, and he's a far cry from what he was last year. He may get called up with the expanded rosters in September, but he shouldn't be before that.

Jason Ellison (45) - This isn't a fair rating at all since the guy never gets to hit, but maybe he'll get a few more opportunities with McLaren. Mac is already using him as a defensive replacement more, which is good to see. Ellison does get big props for sprinting in with his fists clenched to defend Ichiro from Joe Blanton yesterday. Plus, Ellison and Willie Bloomquist were great friends in high school, so it's nice that the two of them can keep each other entertained while they sit around.

It's nice to write about a bunch of bright spots and pleasant surprises. Here's hoping that the second half is just as good, if not better.