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Showing posts with label Carlos Triunfel. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Carlos Triunfel. Show all posts

Minor League Recap

The minor league baseball season ended yesterday. Faithful readers might remember a minor league preview that I posted as the season began. I looked at players outside the Mariners top prospect lists that could establish themselves as parts of the Mariners future.

How did these players do? Let's take a look:

2012 Mariners Minor League Rosters

The Mariners set their opening day roster on Tuesday, which means they also set their minor league rosters. Plenty of good blogs will dig into the MLB roster, but really, opening day already happened. The juicier stuff is in the minors.

I've looked through the minor league rosters, and offer up a batter and pitcher I am interested in at each level (with honorable mentions). I've intentionally highlighted guys that don't grab headlines all the time. I don't have a real firm definition for who counts as a headline-grabbing prospect, but I generally tried to avoid players that pop up on most pre-season top 10 lists. My theory is that there will be plenty of coverage around those guys. The players I've chosen to write about might get overlooked though, and in some ways they are just as important to the vitality of the farm system.

Keep reading past the jump for some names to track in the M's farm system that aren't getting much hype, but might be poised to become a bigger part of the Mariners future:

Mariners Farm At A Glance

I feel like my annual list of MLB draft prospects needs some kind of build up, if for no other reason because it is so long. It would feel like a shock to the system without fair warning, and a little stretching.

So, why not ease into this year's draft coma with a look at the Mariners farm system as it sits right now?

All in all, I do not think it has been as exciting of a year so far in the minors for the M's, but that's not necessarily a bad thing. Many new players emerged last year, and some of them are following up break-out performances with worthy encores. That's good, because it makes it less likely that some of last year's youngsters are flashes in the pan.

Still, as in any year, there are surprises, both good and bad - as well as unsurprising performances, also good and bad. Below is my overview of the M's minor league affiliates, divided into hopefully useful groups:

2009 AFL Rosters Released

Arizona Fall League rosters were released today, and seven Mariners will play for the Peoria Javelinas. Every franchise selects players from their system that they want to participate in the league. There are six teams total in the fall league, so five franchises feed each team. The Javelinas are comprised of Mariners, Brewers, Dodgers, Tigers, and White Sox players.

Usually, the AFL does not get much attention. It will get a little more this year though, because Stephen Strasburg will make his pro debut as a Phoenix Desert Dog. The AFL gives teams a chance to get extra work for a handful of players. This year, teams are mostly using it to accelerate the development of their top prospects, so on paper this is one of the more talented AFLs. Here is a closer look at each player the M's are sending:
  • Dustin Ackley - Much like Strasburg, the second overall pick will debut in the Fall League. This was announced when Ackley signed, so it is no surprise at all. Gordon Beckham and Matt LaPorta played in the AFL the year after they were drafted, succeeded, and put themselves on the fast track to the majors. Ackley is certainly worth watching, because he seems capable of getting on a similarly fast track.
  • Philippe Aumont - The Mariners put Aumont on the fast track to the majors when they sent him to the bullpen. He has scuffled in recent AA outings, but a strong showing in the AFL may prime Philippe for a promotion to AAA...or maybe even the Mariners bullpen. Once Aumont is ready, he will be up, and the team is clearly giving him every chance to make it as quickly as possible.
  • Joe Dunigan - Lost in the shuffle of all sorts of stellar offensive performances in High Desert has been the steady production of Dunigan. It's partly because he is older than other High Desert prospects. Still, Joe has a nice blend of power and surprising speed for his size. He deserves more attention than he has received so far, and a nice showing in the AFL will help him garner it.
  • Josh Fields - Fields and Aumont are now both in AA, and both project as late-inning relievers. It sure seems like they are competing against each other, and they will yet again in the AFL. Josh still struggles with consistency, and on top of that he has been injured. Time spent in the AFL should help him out as much as anyone. He'll never become more consistent without ample opportunities.
  • Nick Hill - Nick seems to get stronger and stronger every year. He had been in the bullpen his entire time in the system until the second half of this year. The move did not faze Hill at all, as he continued to dominate in AA. I like his chances to make the 2010 Mariners better than any other Diamond Jaxx pitcher (that includes Aumont and Fields), and I like them even more now that he is going to get some work in the AFL.
  • Carlos Triunfel - The top M's position prospect in many minds pretty much lost the entire 2009 season to a leg injury. This is his chance to get some of that season back. If he can shake off the rust and play well, perhaps he will still be in line for a promotion to AAA to start 2010.
  • Anthony Varvaro - Varvaro has a great arm, but he lacks control, and is already 25 years old in AA. The Mariners need to decide what they think of him sometime soon. A little extra time in the AFL should help.
The Mariners are sending quite a bit of talent to the Arizona Fall League this year. It is a collection of players with high ceilings that are not that far from the big leagues. Between Ackley, Aumont, and Fields, the Mariners have all three of their most recent top draft picks going to the AFL. I thought Adam Moore and Matt Tuiasosopo might be heading to the league too, but it's hard to argue with this list. The 2009 AFL is more than worth keeping tabs on.

Bedard Rumors Continue to Swirl

Erik BedardRumors concerning the Mariners acquiring SP Erik Bedard (96/94) from the Orioles refuse to die. The latest I have seen is that the M's are willing to part ways with OF Adam Jones (73/85) and RP George Sherrill (86/83), but the Orioles want in addition to those two either SP Brandon Morrow (75/81) or SS Carlos Triunfel (43/85). Currently, it appears the Mariners would prefer to include Triunfel between the two.

Jones, Sherrill, and Triunfel is an awfully high price to pay for any player. Erik Bedard was incredible last year (the only pitcher better than him last year according to my formula was Jake Peavy), but what he is actually worth needs to be examined further. Looking at his numbers, he exploded last year, and I doubt he will ever have a better year despite the fact he is only 28 years old. In fact, I really do not think he will reach the 94 rating my rating system projects for him next year. That is not to say Bedard will not be a great pitcher in the future, but to expect him to duplicate his 2007 output for the next several seasons is intrepid, to put it nicely. Taking Bedard's last three seasons and plugging them into my rating formula (with a slight injury adjustment), his rating drops to 86, with an expected decay to 85. That means Bedard is still a great pitcher, but the difference between a 96 rating and an 86 is significant.

After taking a closer look at Bedard, I think offering Jones and Sherrill for him is a fair deal. Baltimore needs a center fielder, and Jones fits that need perfectly, especially because he could become the black superstar that connects with the Baltimore community, which the Orioles covet badly. Though the Orioles would not receive a starter to replace Bedard in the trade, they added depth in the off-season by acquiring SP Troy Patton (61/78) and Matt Albers (59/63) in the Tejada trade, both of whom the team considers rotation candidates (I'm not as sold on them, but all that matters is if Baltimore believes in them). If they really wanted a starter, I would be willing to offer either Carlos Silva (75/74), Miguel Batista (76/72), or Jarrod Washburn (74/72), and get any one of those contracts off the books while making room in the rotation for Morrow. I doubt the Orioles would be interested in one of those three though.

As for the Mariners, Bedard would team with Felix Hernandez (83/90) and the mediocre, but effective, trio of Batista, Silva , and Washburn to turn the starting rotation into a decent, if not borderline formidable, group. Furthermore, though Sherrill would be missed in the bullpen, the M's have still have two very good bullpen lefties in Eric O'Flaherty (78/83) and Ryan Rowland-Smith (73/77), and Morrow would be pitching in the later innings as well. Adam Jones would also be missed, but Wladimir Balentien (70/80) is not a bad option, and there have been rumors the Mariners would sign Luis Gonzalez (79/74) if they were to trade Jones. So, it is not as if there would be a giant void in the outfield if Jones were to be traded, making it reasonable to say the upgrade Bedard brings to the starting rotation more than counteracts the loss of Jones in the outfield.

Still, it looks like the Orioles are not interested in only acquiring Jones and Sherrill for Bedard, and I would not be willing to offer much more for that. I would be willing to include INF Mike Morse (69/75) because there is no longer room for him on the 25-man roster thanks to INF Miguel Cairo (70/68), and Baltimore would be smart to take a look at Morse because he could fill their hole at shortstop, but I doubt that would be enough either. Bedard would be a great addition to the Mariners, but Baltimore's asking price is just a little too steep.