thoughts on the Mariners, MLB draft, and more homelinksdraftabout me

2007 Championship Series Previews

None of the division series proved to have much drama, but in a way that created some intrigue seeing if all the series would be sweeps. The quick division series could set up some intriguing championship match-ups, since all of the teams remaining are on a roll and well-rested. Here's a quick preview for each series:

Lineup and starting pitching ratings are based on my hitter and pitcher rating systems. Odds of winning series is based on my adjusted pythagorean formula. The two are completely separate formulas, but in theory should correlate.


Rockies vs. Diamondbacks

Lineup Ratings:
Rockies - 83
Diamondbacks - 76

Starting Pitching Ratings:
Rockies - 70
Diamondbacks - 76

Odds of Winning Series:
Rockies - 66%
Diamondbacks - 34%

Bottom Line: According to the baseball pythagorean theorem, the odds are well stacked against the D'Backs. However, looking at lineup and pitching ratings, the match-up does not seem to be so lopsided. The Diamondbacks do have home-field advantage, they showed the ability to flex their muscles, and they have the stronger pitching staff. It's a match-up between the team that shouldn't have been first (the D'Backs), and the team that never was first but made it somehow anyway (the Rockies). Both teams seem to have destiny on their side, so I'll stick with the numbers and pick the Rockies in five games.

Indians vs. Red Sox

Lineup Ratings:
Indians - 79
Red Sox - 82

Starting Pitching Ratings:
Indians - 82
Red Sox - 82

Odds of Winning Series:
Indians - 36%
Red Sox - 64%

Bottom Line: Both of these teams feature lineups built upon power and patience, and they are accompanying by strong starting staffs. However, the Red Sox have home field advantage and much more playoff experience. Boston made an interesting move flipping Schilling and Matsuzaka in the rotation, and it will be interesting to see if that makes a difference. Ultimately, the pivotal match-ups will be the ones where C.C. Sabathia and Josh Beckett square off. Usually I believe game two is more crucial than game one, but in this series the first game really is as important as it gets. Ultimately, I think the starting pitching is equal but Boston's offense is a little better, so I'm going with the Red Sox in six games.