2010 Draft: Mariners Day Three Recap

MLB players come around from time to time this late in the draft, but it's very rare. Teams are done drafting the guys they really are pinning hopes on, for the most part. Today's picks mostly fall into two categories: easy college signs that will fill out the short-season minor league teams, and higher upside guys almost impossible to sign for one reason or another. The impossible signs are team's fallback options in case one of their higher picks doesn't look like they will sign.

With the nature of day three in mind, I have decided against breakdowns of every single player. If you are that interested, e-mail me (the contact info is in the right-hand column in the about me section). Instead, I have broken down the M's picks into the three main groups, based on their chances of signing:

EXTREMELY LIKELY TO SIGN

• Andrew Giobbi, C,Vanderbilt
• Billy Marcoe, C, Cal State Fullerton - Hometown is Bellevue
• Ethan Paquette, 1B, Hofstra
• Matt Browning, 3B, James Madison
• Patrick Brady, INF, Bellarmine College (KY) - Put up an impressive .379/.406/.694 slash line with 27 steals in 30 attempts too! Definitely a great pick in the 48th round.
• James Wood, OF, Trinity College (CT) - Put up a HUGE .441/.504/.881 slash line in his senior year, and also went 9 for 10 stealing bases. Could be a pleasant surprise as a 47th round pick.
• Tyler Whitney, LHP, Mississippi State
• Ryan Kiel, LHP, Marshall
• Josh Krist, RHP, Cal Poly
• Tim Boyce, RHP, Rhode Island
• Nathan Reed, LHP, Kutztown - Reed was drafted by the White Sox in the 20th round last year, but slipped to the 40th round this year. I think teams forgot about him once he transferred to Kutztown from Pitt, because his numbers are intriguing. Lots of walks, but not many hits, and I see some potential in his breaking ball. See if you agree.

UNLIKELY TO SIGN

• Douglas Peterson, 3B, Gilbert HS (AZ)
• Colton Keough, OF, Tesoro HS (CA)
• David Holman, RHP, Hutchinson CC (KS) - M's drafted Holman last year in the 47th round, and I don't see any good reason he will sign as a 50th round pick this year

OTHERS

• Jake Schlander, SS, Stanford - Would you walk away from Stanford as a junior if you were drafted late? There is a pretty highly regarded prep shortstop (Lonnie Kauppila, 44th round pick of the A's) committed to the Cardinal, which may or may not be relevant too.
• Forrest Snow, RHP, Washington - A junior at the UW with a fantastic pitching body, at 6'6". If he adds velocity to match his frame, he is intriguing. I think he signs if he likes the idea of pitching for the home team.
• Ben Versnik, RHP, Wisconsin-Whitewater - Burly right-hander with good numbers out of the bullpen. He is only a junior, so he can got back in the draft next year. But, he also has experience in summer leagues, so he seems pretty set on giving baseball a chance.
• Mike Aviles, RHP, St. Thomas Aquinas College (NY) - I don't have much on this guy, but he might be the older brother of Robert Aviles, a prep pitcher taken in the 7th round by the Indians. Aviles is a unique enough  name, and they went to the same high school. Mike is a junior, so he could go back to school.
• Stephen Kohlscheen, RHP, Auburn - Another huge pitcher (6'6"), and he throws the ball in the low 90s. He is listed as a junior, so he should have some college eligibility left. He was drafted in the 30th round by the Phillies last year, and the 45th round this year by the M's. He may decide to sign, and his frame and velocity aren't that common for signable guys this late in the draft.
• David Rollins, LHP, San Jacinto College - There's one pitch in this video that I think is a change-up (the one that was clocked at 76 MPH), and looks like a promising pitch. The M's drafted Rollins last year in the 35th round, and this year in the 46th. They definitely like him. He appears set to pitch in the Cape Cod league this summer, and he could for a bit before signing. Worth watching, because he could be a steal this late if he performs well. Rollins also is listed as a sophomore (though he is a year older than most sophomores), so he should still have college eligibility.

If you really want a thorough breakdown of the third day in the MLB draft, I'm sorry for the terribly slow day you are having at work. The most interesting guys to me out of these picks are Patrick Brady, James Wood, Nathan Reed, and David Rollins. One thing I like about the day is how heavy it was on college guys. Many teams pick a ton of prep players as fallback options for if they can't sign their top picks. Essentially, one way or another, that strategy punts several draft picks away. The Mariners at least gave themselves a chance to find a diamond in the rough, which several organizations more or less cut themselves off from.