So, does Bill James see the 2011 M's offense rebounding at all? Let's look at the wOBA projections:
| 2010 | 2011 projection | |
| Adam Moore | .224 | .303 |
| Justin Smoak | .300 | .343 |
| Chone Figgins | .302 | .323 |
| Jack Wilson | .262 | .290 |
| Jose Lopez | .268 | .307 |
| Michael Saunders | .296 | .313 |
| Franklin Gutierrez | .300 | .322 |
| Ichiro | .338 | .338 |
| Milton Bradley | .289 | .349 |
Of the nine players listed, eight are expected to be noticeably better, and Ichiro is expected to be as good as this past year. These are only projections of course, so there is no guarantee that the season plays out anything close to these numbers. Nobody predicted the M's offense to be as bad as it was last year.
But, to a degree, that is the point. The only thing less likely than the year the M's just went through at the plate would be another year just like it. James's projections illustrate the concept of regression to the mean, and why it is reasonable to expect the Mariners offense to be better next year, even if they do nothing at all.
