Happ to Pirates

News of another Mariners trade broke just after the deadline. Happy trails to LHP J.A. Happ. Pittsburgh acquired him by giving the Mariners AAA RHP Adrian Sampson.

Happ has struggled mightily his last few outings, but put a string of solid ones together at the start of the year. He remains, overall, a decent lefty in all likelihood. However, there was a good chance he would get moved to the bullpen and he is a free agent at the end of the season. Happ was another likely player to go today simply because...why not trade him?

Adrian Sampson is a more interesting return than one might expect for a guy like Happ. For one thing, he is a local kid, born in Redmond and drafted out of Bellevue Community College. He is in AAA just two and a half years into his pro career, and while he hasn't posted amazing numbers at any one minor league stop, he has held his own. Sampson gives the Mariners some pitching depth at the end of their staff, either as sixth/seventh starter or long reliever.

There is no word on cash involved in this deal, but I would not be surprised if the Mariners are picking up Happ's remaining salary. Sampson seems a little too good of a get without some cash involved. This is another small, but pleasant, move from the Mariners - unless you go back and remember the M's got Happ for Michael Saunders straight up. But Saunders has been hurt all season, so I guess everybody lost that offseason trade. True to the blue.

Mariners Could Exploit a Seller's Market

The Mariners remain in a precarious position, to say the least. Although they did not play yesterday, the A's did, and won - which puts the Mariners in the AL West cellar. However, Fangraphs still projects the Mariners to have the best winning percentage in the AL West the rest of the season. Of course, this is simply an analytical way of saying what any fan has easily noticed so far: the Seattle Mariners have badly underperformed so far this year.

Interestingly, Fangraphs still places the M's playoff odds at 18.4% - basically suggesting that if this 2015 M's team, from the position they are in right now in the division and league they are in right now, would find a way to make the playoffs about once in five attempts.* Frankly, that's a higher percentage than I expected. It speaks to how good the Mariners could (and should) be because the projection assumes that the Mariners revert back to that team projected to be the best in the AL West from now to the rest of the season.

*Some of this is due to the extreme parity in the AL. The top four playoff odds at the moment all belong to NL teams, which is especially amazing when you consider there are only five playoff spots up for grabs in each league. This includes three NL Central ballclubs (Cardinals, Pirates, Cubs) with odds ahead of every AL team.

I remain worried that Jack Zduriencik will feel some heat on his job and make some deadline deals to go for it and make the playoffs this year. The playoff odds suggest making the postseason is not an impossible task for the Mariners, but bolstering the roster is a different story. The following tweet came from respected MLB reporter Ken Rosenthal today:

Meanwhile, improved play of #Reds, #Athletics also is tightening trade market. One GM says, "No one is available, really."

— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) June 26, 2015

The trade deadline market projects as an extreme seller's market because so many teams think they have a shot at the playoffs. In an odd way the Mark Trumbo trade already looks better than expected in hindsight, even with Trumbo's mighty struggles, given that the Mariners completely one of only two significant trades during the season so far. The other also included the Diamondbacks, who shipped Bronson Arroyo and top pitching prospect Touki Toussaint to the Braves for Phil Gosselin. Gosselin is basically a glorified version of Willie Bloomquist. Advantage: Braves in a landslide. The Mariners gave up nobody of Toussaint's caliber to get a (theoretically) superior player in Trumbo.

Perhaps the Diamondbacks are just dumb, but even if that's the case, at least the Mariners took advantage.

Both logic and reports like Rosenthal's strongly suggest that whoever decides to sell players and build for the future will get deals they almost never would get in other markets, particularly in the offseason. Even though the Mariners have an outside chance at the playoffs, I believe there is some wisdom to exploring and exploiting this trade market to reload for 2016. I'm not suggesting that this team needs to get blown up. What I am suggesting is that the 2015 Mariners have some players that contenders might like to have who do not ruin the M's chances in 2016 - especially depending on who the M's can get back in a trade.

Here are five Mariners who could get traded at the deadline that might not harm the M's chances of competing in 2016 at all, especially if the Mariners can acquire some talent in return:

'Kuma is an impending free agent
(image posted on Wikimedia commons by LiAna Davis)

Hisashi Iwakuma - Iwakuma is a free agent at the end of this season. Moreover, the Mariners all of a sudden have a bit of a glut in the starting rotation with the emergence of Mike Montgomery. Although Iwakuma would be a rental for a contender, he comes with a track record of success, a very affordable contract, and his injury this season might work in his favor. It has limited Iwakuma's innings, which means if he can have a couple of solid starts between now and the trade deadline, other teams should have confidence that Iwakuma won't lose any gas in a potentially deep playoff run.

J.A. Happ - Similar to Iwakuma, Happ is a free agent at the end of the season. Safeco Field makes him look a bit better than he actually is, but that hasn't stopped teams in the past from acquiring Mariners (remember when the Tigers traded for Jarrod Washburn at the deadline?) It wouldn't make sense to trade both Happ and Iwakuma away unless one of those deals netted a decent starting pitcher in return. Then again, Vidal Nuno could jump in the rotation for the rest of the season and a guy like Danny Hultzen could add depth in 2016.

Austin Jackson - Jackson will become a free agent at the end of this season. This limits his trade value, but the whole point of going into the market is because it's an extreme seller's market. Jackson might still demand something more than usual. Trading him away would only make sense if A) The Mariners get a center fielder back in the trade or B) They decide to get creative from within their own ranks. A three-way trade which brings Ben Revere from the Phillies could make some sense, or perhaps giving Brad Miller an audition in center field which would clear room for Chris Taylor and/or Ketel Marte at shortstop for an audition between now and the end of the season.

Willie Bloomquist - A popular target to get DFAd, maybe somebody in the National League wants him for his defensive versatility and veteran presence. He is another free agent at the end of the season, and with the M's infield depth in the minors I don't see a spot for him moving forward. Might as well ask around and see if anyone would give up a player for his services.

Fernando Rodney - Hey, if Rodney gets hot and a team sees him as closer insurance, why not? Rodney is a free agent at the end of the season anyway. I doubt he nets much in return in a trade, but you never know until you ask.

Perhaps none of these impending free agents appeal to other clubs, but if the market is as devoid of available players as it seems to be, I would think a few of these players would generate some interest. None of them would create holes for the Mariners that do not already exist (with the possible exception of Austin Jackson). Again, this isn't about blowing up the team and starting again. It is about prepping for 2016 a little early and exploiting a market where the vast majority of teams are hungry to bolster themselves for a pennant chase this year.

I doubt the Mariners would get major prospects in return, but I like their chances to get a few useful role players that they do not have at the moment. That may not sound huge, but then the Mariners would have a little bit of time the rest of this season to season some rookies and find out what they have going into 2016. Moreover, a little more organizational depth in the right places (like catcher...) would allow Zduriencik and company to focus on one or two major additions this offseason. Assuming this year is a fluke, which both traditional scouts and statheads agree could be the case, the Mariners could be in line to win something like 90 games next year.

Or the Mariners could blow all their depth in trades to try to squeak into the playoffs this year and then lose a fifth (or more) of their roster in free agency and scramble for replacements. Or, perhaps more likely, the Mariners could stand pat at the deadline and hope their current roster catches fire and passes up the rest of the American League, then worry about replacing all their impending free agents in the offseason.

I know which path I would explore at this point.

Obligatory Oswalt Trade Analysis

Roy Oswalt got traded from the Houston Astros to the Philadelphia Phillies. I debated letting this one go, because there is more than enough analysis out there already. However, it's just way too fascinating of a deal.

Here are my two cents, and then some.

The Perfect Deadline Deal

I will write a trade deadline recap looking at all the deals. However, for me, one stands out way beyond the rest. Minutes after the deadline passed, a bombshell dropped across the newswires. Jake Peavy got traded to the White Sox for pitchers Clayton Richard, Aaron Poreda, Adam Russell, and Dexter Carter.

I don't even know where to start with this trade. It's as good as a deadline deal gets.

Jake Peavy is one of baseball's best pitchers when healthy. He has not been for months though. In fact, he is still on the DL. Chicago likes Peavy's chances to be back by the end of August. Jake is a former Cy Young award-winner, and relies on a wicked fastball-slider combo to overwhelm hitters. When healthy, he and Mark Buehrle will be a formidable 1-2 punch.

Clayton Richard is a 25-year-old southpaw in the midst of his first full season in the majors. He slid into the White Sox rotation in the middle of this year, and has been okay. His better days are ahead of him, and he will immediately look better in Petco's much more spacious confines. He looks like a third or fourth starter to me.

Aaron Poreda is the gem of the deal. He is only 22 years old, but has flown through Chicago's minor league system. A former first-round pick, he is a tall lefty with a powerful arm and good stuff. He has been effective in the White Sox bullpen in limited opportunities, but make no mistake, his future is as a starter. San Diego will send him to AAA for a little seasoning, which is a good idea. He should get a look in September though, and be in the rotation by 2010. He has as good of a chance to become a top-of-the-rotation starter as any prospect in baseball.

Adam Russell is a tall right-handed reliever (interestingly, all the pitchers the Padres got are abnormally tall). He is a bit older at 26 years of age, and got in 22 games for the White Sox last year out of the bullpen. Russell looks like an average reliever, but it's worth noting that he is inducing way more ground balls this year, and he is also moving to Petco. He could be a pleasant surprise in this deal, though he will not be a star.

Dexter Carter is the prospect by far the longest away from the majors. The 22-year-old from Old Dominion has plenty to like though. He has overpowered hitters since his pro debut around this time last year. Just this year, he has 143 strikeouts in 118 innings. Carter has been pitching in the pitcher-friendly Carolina League, and he is if anything a little old for the league. Still, the insane strikeout numbers speak to a powerful arm. It is too early to say how good Carter may be, but I will take my chances with an arm like that.

As a baseball fan, I love this trade. It's got everything you could ever want. A bona fide star player is involved. A top prospect is involved. Peavy turned down the White Sox earlier this year, but apparently has had a change of heart. Nobody saw the deal coming. It was stunning when it became public.

The deal is so risky for Chicago. Peavy may only get five or six starts before the end of the year. On top of that, the White Sox are not an elite team. They are in a winnable division, but they aren't that much better than the Mariners. Granted, Peavy is under contract for the next three years (and a fourth if the White Sox exercise a massive $22 million option), so Peavy is not a rent-a-player. Still, at least part of the motivation for making the deal now is to win now, and Peavy will be healthy for a month at best.

This is the boldest deal I've ever seen. It's no secret that White Sox GM Ken Williams loves Jake Peavy, and he also loves making bold deals. However, I never imagined something this bold or risky.

This was a no-brainer for the Padres. Even if they pick up all of Peavy's salary this year, it's a terrific deal for them. They rid themselves of a hefty contract, and in the process get some premium talent back. Clayton Richard will be plugged into the rotation immediately, and it shouldn't take long for Poreda to join him. He and Latos have the potential to become a fantastic duo at the top of the rotation for years to come. San Diego still really needs some hitting, but their pitching is all of sudden young, cheap, and good.

This was not a no-brainer for the White Sox. Peavy is obviously the best player in this deal, and he should be great for several years once he is healthy. However, I am not as high on him as Ken Williams is. Peavy is a bit of a max effort guy, and his stuff strains his arm more than a guy like Mark Buehrle. Peavy also has quite a bit of mileage on his arm for as young as he is. I think Peavy will develop arm problems within the next few years, or if he doesn't, his velocity will sink a little, and the slider will flatten out a little.

On top of my concerns over Peavy, I am very high on Aaron Poreda. It would not surprise me if he is a better pitcher than Jake within the next few years. He will certainly be better for the price - $15-17 million versus $400-500K - but he may just be flat-out better if Peavy fades some as I think he may. Add in the rest of the talent in the deal, and the financial aspect, and that's why it is such a no-brainer for San Diego.

As a final note, I wonder what kind of discussions Ken Williams had with J.P. Ricciardi about Roy Halladay. Williams said he made a push for Roy, and was disappointed with the response. Granted, Halladay is not under contract for as long as Peavy, and he is a few years older. I also have a hunch that Williams simply like Peavy better. However, you would have to think the Blue Jays got a comparable offer for Halladay to what the Padres just accepted for Peavy.

If Chicago wouldn't part with Poreda for Halladay, I would understand. However, for the sake of argument, let's say they offered Poreda, Clayton Richard, and Josh Fields. That seems plausible. I like that package better than the rumored Phillies deals. I prefer Poreda to Kyle Drabek, and Richard is comparable to J.A. Happ at worst. Fields is a young third baseman with power potential. I don't like him as much as Dominic Brown, but he is closer to the majors and plays a more premium position. Plus, as I said earlier, I prefer Poreda to Drabek, so Fields does not have to be better than Brown to make the deal worth it.

Was Ricciardi really that stuck on getting four players? Granted, I'm speculating a ton here with my proposed trade. However, looking at the Peavy deal, and knowing that the White Sox went after Halladay, I question how Toronto and Chicago did not come to an agreement. More specifically, I question Ricciardi. It's only excusable if the White Sox would not include Poreda. Otherwise, Ricciardi blew it.

In the end, I'm glad the White Sox did not get Roy Halladay. This Jake Peavy deal is everything a baseball fan could ask for. It came out of nowhere. It's bold and risky. It has star power. It happened right up against the deadline. It's dramatic no matter what angle you look at it from. This is what the trade deadline is all about.