So Many Remaining Free Agents

Justin Morneau (William Andrus, UCinternational: Wikimedia Commons)

This year's free agent market is moving slowly,  meaning several good players remain available. It seems likely that there will be an uptick in movement after the new year as both teams and players feel some urgency to hammer out agreements before spring training begins.

Jerry Dipoto has publicly stated that the Mariners are done making major moves. With that said, there are many decent free agents remaining with only so much time and so many roster spots up for grabs. It seems likely that somebody who could be valuable to the Mariners can be found for cheap - perhaps even as a non-roster invitee signing.

Fangraphs has a helpful sorter that lists remaining free agents with projected 2016 WAR totals. I have split the free agents into three major groups - up the middle defenders, corner defenders, and pitchers. Within those groups I stratified them by projected WAR total for 2016.

Obviously, the best players would help the Mariners most, but I am assuming that the Mariners have little to no money left and largely an interest in bolstering depth. The question is which players as free agents could bolster the Mariners and be interested in a supporting role. I have highlighted my best guesses as good fits in each group:

Second base, shortstop, center field

• 2 WAR: Howie Kendrick (2.6), Denard Span (2.4)
• 1 WAR: Dexter Fowler (1.7), Ian Desmond (1.5), Austin Jackson (1.4), Jimmy Rollins (1.4)
• 0 WAR: Alexei Ramirez (0.8)

The Mariners look quite good up the middle of their infield thanks to the presence of both Chris Taylor and Shawn O'Malley. Taylor may not have hit much in the majors (yet) but his glove is good enough to make him a capable starter for many teams. It is good the Mariners already have infield depth because the free agent market has little to offer up the middle defensively.

However, another player who can patrol center field would sure be handy. Leonys Martin is the everyday man, but what if he does not hit again? Or gets injured?

Austin Jackson could, ironically, be a fit. He would certainly be nice to have as a reserve, given his solid defense, good speed, and youthful age (still just 28, which is young for a free agent).

The real question is if the Mariners are a good fit for Jackson. Ultimately, I doubt it, but the market for center fielders seems tepid at best for now. It could make some sense for Jackson to accept a one-year deal somewhere he thinks he can carve out playing time before trying free agency again. If there are few offers for Jackson and he thinks the Mariners offer the best chance at playing time, perhaps he bites.

First base, third base, left field, right field

• 3 WAR: Alex Gordon (3.5)
• 2 WAR: Yoenis Cespedes (2.9), Justin Upton (2.8), Juan Uribe (2.4), Chris Davis (2.3), Steve Pearce (2.0)
• 1 WAR: David Freese (1.4), Gerardo Parra (1.0)
• 0 WAR: Justin Morneau (0.8), Shane Victorino (0.8), Matt Joyce (0.8), Ryan Raburn (0.8), Will Venable (0.5), Kelly Johnson (0.4), David Murphy (0.2), Chris Denorfia (0.1), Marlon Byrd (0.1)

The Mariners largely filled their first base hole when they signed Adam Lind but he could use a platoon partner to face lefties. Jesus Montero could be that answer but I would still be monitoring the free agent market if I was Jerry Dipoto. Justin Morneau, believe it or not, has run a reverse platoon split for his career! He is better against lefties and still hits pretty well when healthy. His age and health concerns likely limit his market. He could be a good fit in Seattle, where he would not be expected to play every day but could help the lineup stay strong if Lind or Nelson Cruz goes down with an injury for some time.

Steve Pearce intrigues me the most though. Projection systems really like him. He doesn't fit the Dipoto mold perfectly - he strikes out a ton and does not have great on-base skills - but he has power and struggled last year thanks largely to a bad BABIP rate. He is a strong candidate for a rebound. Moreover, he has experience playing both first base and left field, and he rates as a passable defender in the outfield according to the stats. I don't know what kind of market has developed around him, but he could be a steal as a non-roster invitee. Seattle would have to be an intriguing place to him because there is a clear path to playing time for him as Lind's platoon partner and the chance to slide into the outfield rotation if any of the current quartet (Smith, Gutierrez, Martin, Aoki) goes down with an injury.

I highlighted Kelly Johnson for similar reasons, minus the bullish projection. He would be passable depth, but he has already transitioned into a reserve role. He would seem to be open to that again.

Will Venable and Shane Victorino could both provide potential outfield depth. Venable in particular seems like a great fit because he could slide over to center and be passable. Victorino has a similar skillset but is much older and would have to accept a reserve role. He would essentially have to be willing to take the route of Franklin Gutierrez, and he would be Guti's replacement if Guti were to get injured. Those are big 'if's.

Pitchers

• 3 WAR: Cliff Lee (3.3), Wei-Yin Chen (3.0)
• 2 WAR: Scott Kazmir (2.8), Josh Johnson (2.8), A.J. Burnett (2.5), Ian Kennedy (2.3), Brandon Morrow (2.2), Mat Latos (2.1)
• 1 WAR: Yovani Gallardo (1.9), Mark Buehrle (1.6), Doug Fister (1.5), Alfredo Simon (1.1), Edwin Jackson (1.0)
• 0 WAR: Aaron Harang (0.9), Tim Lincecum (0.9), Kyle Lohse (0.9), Chad Billingsley (0.8), Joe Blanton (0.7), Ross Ohlendorf (0.6), Jeremy Guthrie (0.6), Jeff Francis (0.5), Tommy Hunter (0.4), Antonio Bastardo (0.4), Fernando Rodney (0.4), Gavin Floyd (0.4), Chris Capuano (0.3), Matt Thornton (0.3), Manny Parra (0.3), Matt Albers (0.3), Neal Cotts (0.2), Ryan Webb (0.2), Randy Choate (0.2), Carlos Villanueva (0.2), Joe Nathan (0.2), Tom Gorzelanny (0.1), Peter Moylan (0.1), Tyler Clippard (0.1), Eric O'Flaherty (0.0), Blaine Boyer (0.0), Franklin Morales (0.0), Matt Belisle (0.0)

No team can have too much pitching. I expect all of these pitchers to sign before the season starts, though it would be reasonable to guess that many of these pitchers will be choosing which team to accept a non-roster spring training invite from. The Mariners are probably not an enticing fit from a non-roster standpoint because the rotation already has six capable arms. However, Safeco's spacious dimensions is also the kind of locale that could allow a pitcher to recover some value and try to get a bigger deal next offseason.

If the Mariners want to go after a reclamation project, Josh Johnson and Brandon Morrow fit the mold. Both have power arms and both have broken down over the past few seasons. A transition to full-time bullpen work might make sense for both of them. Morrow has already experienced success in the bullpen, albeit early in his career.

Players with connections to the northwest are always fun to speculate about too. Both Doug Fister and Tim Lincecum could be looking for places to rebound and would make for fun stories if signed by the Mariners.

Now, on to the most realistic options. Tommy Hunter has been a quietly effective reliever the past three seasons, though he took a step back in 2015. However, he possesses a huge fastball that averages over 96 MPH out of the bullpen, and he has some command of it. You would expect more strikeouts from such a big arm, but the results are still solid and he largely fits the mold of a Dipoto pitcher. It's easy to imagine him in middle relief for a Dipoto team and he could get lost in the free agency shuffle. Another big arm that might be had on a non-roster invitee deal is Fernando Rodney. Snicker all you want, but he could be interesting on a non-guaranteed deal.

Manny Parra and Carlos Villanueva both have experience starting in their past with at least decent results. They have also experienced success in the bullpen. Parra throws harder than Villanueva so seems like the better fit for Dipoto's style, but both could be the type of solid innings absorbers that keep quality arms from getting overused.

The next few weeks could be indirectly interesting for the Mariners. They hardly seem in position to pursue anyone, but a handful of players are going to lose out in the game of musical chairs that is MLB free agency. A player or two who could be of surprising value to the Mariners might slip through the cracks and be had for a price that fits the Mariners budget at this point.

Mariners Could Exploit a Seller's Market

The Mariners remain in a precarious position, to say the least. Although they did not play yesterday, the A's did, and won - which puts the Mariners in the AL West cellar. However, Fangraphs still projects the Mariners to have the best winning percentage in the AL West the rest of the season. Of course, this is simply an analytical way of saying what any fan has easily noticed so far: the Seattle Mariners have badly underperformed so far this year.

Interestingly, Fangraphs still places the M's playoff odds at 18.4% - basically suggesting that if this 2015 M's team, from the position they are in right now in the division and league they are in right now, would find a way to make the playoffs about once in five attempts.* Frankly, that's a higher percentage than I expected. It speaks to how good the Mariners could (and should) be because the projection assumes that the Mariners revert back to that team projected to be the best in the AL West from now to the rest of the season.

*Some of this is due to the extreme parity in the AL. The top four playoff odds at the moment all belong to NL teams, which is especially amazing when you consider there are only five playoff spots up for grabs in each league. This includes three NL Central ballclubs (Cardinals, Pirates, Cubs) with odds ahead of every AL team.

I remain worried that Jack Zduriencik will feel some heat on his job and make some deadline deals to go for it and make the playoffs this year. The playoff odds suggest making the postseason is not an impossible task for the Mariners, but bolstering the roster is a different story. The following tweet came from respected MLB reporter Ken Rosenthal today:

Meanwhile, improved play of #Reds, #Athletics also is tightening trade market. One GM says, "No one is available, really."

— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) June 26, 2015

The trade deadline market projects as an extreme seller's market because so many teams think they have a shot at the playoffs. In an odd way the Mark Trumbo trade already looks better than expected in hindsight, even with Trumbo's mighty struggles, given that the Mariners completely one of only two significant trades during the season so far. The other also included the Diamondbacks, who shipped Bronson Arroyo and top pitching prospect Touki Toussaint to the Braves for Phil Gosselin. Gosselin is basically a glorified version of Willie Bloomquist. Advantage: Braves in a landslide. The Mariners gave up nobody of Toussaint's caliber to get a (theoretically) superior player in Trumbo.

Perhaps the Diamondbacks are just dumb, but even if that's the case, at least the Mariners took advantage.

Both logic and reports like Rosenthal's strongly suggest that whoever decides to sell players and build for the future will get deals they almost never would get in other markets, particularly in the offseason. Even though the Mariners have an outside chance at the playoffs, I believe there is some wisdom to exploring and exploiting this trade market to reload for 2016. I'm not suggesting that this team needs to get blown up. What I am suggesting is that the 2015 Mariners have some players that contenders might like to have who do not ruin the M's chances in 2016 - especially depending on who the M's can get back in a trade.

Here are five Mariners who could get traded at the deadline that might not harm the M's chances of competing in 2016 at all, especially if the Mariners can acquire some talent in return:

'Kuma is an impending free agent
(image posted on Wikimedia commons by LiAna Davis)

Hisashi Iwakuma - Iwakuma is a free agent at the end of this season. Moreover, the Mariners all of a sudden have a bit of a glut in the starting rotation with the emergence of Mike Montgomery. Although Iwakuma would be a rental for a contender, he comes with a track record of success, a very affordable contract, and his injury this season might work in his favor. It has limited Iwakuma's innings, which means if he can have a couple of solid starts between now and the trade deadline, other teams should have confidence that Iwakuma won't lose any gas in a potentially deep playoff run.

J.A. Happ - Similar to Iwakuma, Happ is a free agent at the end of the season. Safeco Field makes him look a bit better than he actually is, but that hasn't stopped teams in the past from acquiring Mariners (remember when the Tigers traded for Jarrod Washburn at the deadline?) It wouldn't make sense to trade both Happ and Iwakuma away unless one of those deals netted a decent starting pitcher in return. Then again, Vidal Nuno could jump in the rotation for the rest of the season and a guy like Danny Hultzen could add depth in 2016.

Austin Jackson - Jackson will become a free agent at the end of this season. This limits his trade value, but the whole point of going into the market is because it's an extreme seller's market. Jackson might still demand something more than usual. Trading him away would only make sense if A) The Mariners get a center fielder back in the trade or B) They decide to get creative from within their own ranks. A three-way trade which brings Ben Revere from the Phillies could make some sense, or perhaps giving Brad Miller an audition in center field which would clear room for Chris Taylor and/or Ketel Marte at shortstop for an audition between now and the end of the season.

Willie Bloomquist - A popular target to get DFAd, maybe somebody in the National League wants him for his defensive versatility and veteran presence. He is another free agent at the end of the season, and with the M's infield depth in the minors I don't see a spot for him moving forward. Might as well ask around and see if anyone would give up a player for his services.

Fernando Rodney - Hey, if Rodney gets hot and a team sees him as closer insurance, why not? Rodney is a free agent at the end of the season anyway. I doubt he nets much in return in a trade, but you never know until you ask.

Perhaps none of these impending free agents appeal to other clubs, but if the market is as devoid of available players as it seems to be, I would think a few of these players would generate some interest. None of them would create holes for the Mariners that do not already exist (with the possible exception of Austin Jackson). Again, this isn't about blowing up the team and starting again. It is about prepping for 2016 a little early and exploiting a market where the vast majority of teams are hungry to bolster themselves for a pennant chase this year.

I doubt the Mariners would get major prospects in return, but I like their chances to get a few useful role players that they do not have at the moment. That may not sound huge, but then the Mariners would have a little bit of time the rest of this season to season some rookies and find out what they have going into 2016. Moreover, a little more organizational depth in the right places (like catcher...) would allow Zduriencik and company to focus on one or two major additions this offseason. Assuming this year is a fluke, which both traditional scouts and statheads agree could be the case, the Mariners could be in line to win something like 90 games next year.

Or the Mariners could blow all their depth in trades to try to squeak into the playoffs this year and then lose a fifth (or more) of their roster in free agency and scramble for replacements. Or, perhaps more likely, the Mariners could stand pat at the deadline and hope their current roster catches fire and passes up the rest of the American League, then worry about replacing all their impending free agents in the offseason.

I know which path I would explore at this point.

More Pitching

Fernando Rodney

The Mariners have signed a trio of arms since the last time I wrote. Might as well lump them together and call it a blog post. Here they are:

Fernando Rodney - Rodney is the one of the bunch signed to an MLB deal, and will take over as closer from Lord Farquhar. By in large I hate this move, with no offense meant towards Rodney (and I really mean that! I kind of like Rodney's "magic plantain" thing). Rodney is an aging reliever with questionable control and unquestionably electric stuff. His 2012 campaign was magical, and while not quite the product of smoke and mirrors, fueled largely by all sorts of things breaking his way. Bottom line: Rodney is an old reliever with strengths and flaws. Danny Farquhar is a young reliever with strengths and flaws, and arguably better strengths with fewer flaws. I think Rodney will be a fine addition on the field, but not at the price the Mariners paid. Inefficient investment, which the M's can't afford to make because apparently they don't have much left since signing Robinson Cano to a massive deal.

Randy Wolf - Nothing will probably come from Wolf's minor league invite, but I like it. Wolf is an aging lefty coming off of Tommy John surgery. He didn't pitch at all last year, and was roughly replacement level in 2012. He'll have to be a born-again pitcher to be an asset...but Tommy John surgeries spur pitcher revivals from time to time. If Wolf finds a second wind with his new elbow ligament he brings a decade of solid starting pitching to the table. My best guess is that he's out of gas, but I don't mind at all that the Mariners decided to find out if he has something left. The M's should always look to bring guys in like this because Safeco Field can cover warts as veteran pitchers shake some rust off and try to revive their careers.

Zach Miner - Miner is pretty much the definition of a replacement level pitcher. I expect him to quietly produce some solid innings in Tacoma. He's coming to camp on a minor league deal, so no qualms, but I'm not going to write more unless he lights up the Cactus League - which he won't, because he pitches to contact, as evidence by a career K/9 rate below 6.

So there you go, more moves, none of consequence, other than the bullpen shuffling around for no good reason.