The Biggest Trade In Mariners History

The Cliff Lee deal is probably hours away from being official. Word this morning is that somebody failed their physical (perhaps Aumont?), so maybe I am jumping the gun. I'll cross my fingers and say the deal still gets done somehow.

As of yesterday, there were still whispers of someone besides Lee coming to the Mariners, so perhaps we do not know all the details quite yet. Still, it's obvious that Cliff Lee is the centerpiece coming to Seattle, and Phillipe Aumont, Tyson Gillies, and JC Ramirez is the price the M's paid.

There's that whole Roy Halladay end to the trade too. That's kind of a big deal.

There are also reports that Michael Taylor will go to the A's for Brett Wallace, once Taylor officially goes to the Blue Jays in the impending blockbuster Lee-Halladay blockbuster duel deals.

As of now, including that aforementioned A's-'Jays side deal, four teams and nine players are involved at the least. It is a complex deal, and rather than go through the entire thing, I'll stick to this blog's title and muse about the Mariners.

The players the M's gave up, although young prospects, are guys we've heard about. Gillies was in the Futures game over the summer, and so many (including me) have written about him. He has tremendous speed, and coaches say power will start to pop through. Aumont has been on the radar ever since the M's made him their first round draft pick a couple years ago. As we saw in the World Baseball Classic, he has the kind of stuff to make guys like David Wright look completely overmatched. However, he does not have the control to do that on a consistent basis, as evidence by struggles in AA and the Arizona Fall League.

JC Ramirez (also known as Juan Ramirez) is an interesting third prospect in the deal. Scouts universally rave about his stuff and his mental make-up. Although I'm yet to see him, it seems that he looks like a top-of-the-rotation starter in the making. The catch is that his production is yet to match that potential, and he is on the verge of AA. Ramirez is still young, and I respect scout evaluations. However, prospects destined to be impact MLB players tend to "out-talent" others in low-level minor leagues, in my experience. Whatever flaws they have can't be exposed by the level of talent. That's not the case with Ramirez, though he has had flashes of brilliance.

Do I really have to say much about who the M's are getting? Cliff Lee is awesome. We saw him own the Yankees in the World Series. That's Lee at his finest. He is durable, he is a workhorse, and he is unflappable. He's worth at least double his $9 million salary in 2010. Lee also only has only one year left on his deal though.

I am still in shock about this deal. It's a total steal for the Mariners. Aumont is nice, but the M's have other power bullpen arms. David Aardsma isn't going anywhere for a few years (provided he stays as effective as he was). Mark Lowe is young too, and Josh Fields was in AA and the Fall League along with Aumont, and outperformed him at both levels. Aumont is a talented young pitcher, but redundant.

Lots of the same can be said about Tyson Gillies. I'm sad to see him leave, but Michael Saunders has already made the majors, Ezequiel Carrera should be in AAA to start 2010, and there's Dustin Ackley now too (although maybe he's the future at second base). At the MLB level, Gutierrez and Ichiro aren't going anywhere anytime soon. There is still a bit of a glut in the outfield, even without Gillies.

Lastly, JC Ramirez is far from a sure thing, considering he is yet to have good production. With the pitching depth Z has added the past year, and impending returns of Ryan Feierabend and Michael Pineda from injuries, JC's loss is more than manageable.

In other words, the Mariners are on the verge of acquiring a Cy Young award-winner in his prime for three prospects they already have replacements for in their system. That's a little different than the Bedard deal, agreed?

Furthermore, Cliff Lee will almost certainly be a Type A free agent, and if he leaves the Mariners, will even more certainly join a contender. That means if he walks, the M's will get two draft picks, the signing team's first-rounder, and a compensatory pick between the first and second rounds. So, even if Lee walks at the end of the year, Seattle should have a chance to directly replace two of the prospects lost with comparable (or maybe even better) ones. That's the worst case scenario in this deal.

Not bad, not bad at all.

Enough about risk management. The Mariners just acquired Cliff Lee, a Cy Young award-winner in his prime. They ripped headlines away from the Red Sox as they signed John Lackey to a monster deal. They dashed the Angels' hopes of acquiring Roy Halladay. They may very well have shifted the balance in the AL West with this deal.

Seriously, dream with me for a second. Let's say the M's beat out the Rangers and Angels for the AL West title. That's looking more and more reasonable by the day. Even without an offense that lights the world on fire, what team would want to face Cliff Lee and King Felix in a short series? Those are low-scoring games waiting to happen, and one of the lineups will have Ichiro and Chone Figgins at the top, and the other won't. That's a nucleus a team can ride to a championship. It's not enough by itself, but it is a long ways towards enough.

It's a whole bunch closer than Jose Vidro and Miguel Batista, that's for sure.

This is the biggest trade in Mariners history. Cliff Lee probably is not the greatest pitcher the Mariners have ever acquired in a trade. That honor has to go to Randy Johnson. However, Randy Johnson wasn't the Big Unit when the M's got him. He was an erratic, but promising, lefty. On the other hand, Cliff Lee is Cliff Lee. He is a finished product. He is a Cy Young winner. He threw a complete game shutout in game one of the World Series against the eventual world champions only a couple months ago. The Mariners have never acquired a player of Lee's caliber in his prime.

This is huge. This is what the big boys do. This is a statement. Even if the report of the failed physical makes the whole deal fall apart (which would be devastating), the statement has been made. Jack Zduriencik has the guts, the brains, and the skills to pull off mega-deals. I think we all saw that potential with the Putz trade, and all the rumors that swirled at the Winter Meetings.

It is no longer potential though. Z pulled off this deal. A failed physical would be an unfortunate glitch. Physicals don't happen until the sides of discussed and agreed to the deal though. (Honestly, I don't think a failed physical stops the deal at this point too)

The statement has been made. Angels, we're coming for you, and we will catch you. It's only a matter of time.

A Rosterful Weekend

The Mariners set their 40-man roster heading into free agency by the Friday deadline. Players not on the 40-man roster are eligible for the Rule 5 Draft, unless they are still pretty young (highly imprecise definition, but that's the basic idea). As we have come to expect under Jack Zduriencik, the M's were one of the most active teams. They added six prospects to the roster, lost a couple pitchers through waivers, and through it all the most interesting note from the weekend might be a potential position switch for a top prospect.

First off, the additions:

• Dan Cortes, RHP - Cortes was the prize of the Yuni Betancourt trade. He still has good stuff, but has control issues. Still, he is likely to hit AAA at some point this year. Definitely worth protecting.
• Ricky Orta, RHP - Orta spent most of the season in AA West Tennessee's bullpen, and enjoyed his finest professional season to date. He has a live arm, and maybe something clicked for him this past year. He should be in AAA in 2010.
• Edward Paredes, LHP - I am surprised that Paredes was added to the roster. He is yet to show much potential, and he has not played above advanced A ball. I don't think a team would have looked at Paredes as a possible Rule 5 pick, and even if they did, I'm not sure I'd feel real bad.
• JC Ramirez, LHP - The pitcher formerly know as Juan Ramirez (and still listed by most sources as Juan Ramirez) is an interesting case. Scouts continue to rave about his stuff and mental makeup. However, he is yet to turn that into real solid success, even in the low minors. Given how much some think of his future, he definitely is worth protecting, even though he has at least a few years before he is ready for the majors.
• Anthony Varvaro, RHP - Like several M's pitching prospects this past season, Varvaro was shifted from the rotation to the bullpen, and found much more success. His stuff is electric, though he doesn't always know exactly where the ball is going. Still, especially after a solid AFL showing, it was time to protect Varvaro. It wouldn't be shocking if he plays with the M's at some point this season either.
• Ezequiel Carrera, OF - As if the Putz deal didn't look bad enough for the Mets already, Carrera exploded in AA for the M's in 2009. He doesn't have power, but he makes consistent contact, has a great eye at the plate, and uses his speed for all it is worth. He has the skillset of a prototypical leadoff hitter, and will be in AAA in 2010.

In the process, the M's exposed three players to waivers. Josh Wilson was outrighted to AAA, so the Mariners held on to him. However, they lost RHP Chris Jakubauskas to the Pirates, and RHP Robert Manuel to the Red Sox. Jakubauskas was the surprise of last year's spring training, and carved out a spot in long relief for most of 2009. He had a long road to the majors, which certainly showed with how much he enjoyed his time with the Mariners. For all those personal reasons, I am sorry to see him leave.

Manuel never appeared in a game for the Mariners. He was the player acquired in the Wladimir Balentien trade. In the end, he was a Mariner barely long enough to say hi before we say bye.

Ultimately, Jakubauskas and Manuel are the definition of replaceable relievers. Every team can use a few of them, but they are not highly difficult to find. I would much rather have guys like Varvaro, Ramirez, and Cortes protected, because there are good reasons to think that they will be above replacement level once they develop. Holding on to replacement level players for dear life was part of what got Bavasi in trouble as a GM. It destroyed roster flexibility for no good reason.

All the moves leave the Mariners with 37 players on their 40-man roster. That number does not include free agents like Russell Branyan, Adrian Beltre, and Erik Bedard. Obviously, additions will be made, so the space is needed. Still, since I didn't have to give up Manuel and Jakubauskas yet, I probably would have kept them. On the flip side though, if it was certain that they were going to leave, it is nicer for their futures to let them move on as early as possible.

Now, despite all those transactions, the biggest news of the weekend regards Dustin Ackley. The Mariners are going to have him work out at second base in January. For now it is an experiment, but I think it is an experiment that Seattle really hopes works out.

The Mariners have a logjam in the outfield. Franklin Gutierrez and Ichiro are not going anywhere anytime soon. Michael Saunders may be the opening day left fielder, and his future seems to be pretty bright. Ezequiel Carrera and Tyson Gillies both are promising top-of-the-order bats. Joe Dunigan performed fairly well in the AFL after a breakout 2009 campaign, so he can't be ignored either. It is hard to think that nobody out of that bunch of youngsters pans out.

The infield, however, is a different story. Matt Tuiasosopo is close to ready, but most do not see him sticking at second base long-term, if he ever plays there regularly. Carlos Triunfel lost a year with the broken leg, and he also does not appear to be a second baseman long-term. As of now, the M's best second base prospect might be Kyle Seager, Ackley's UNC teammate and fellow 2009 draftee.

If Ackley can play at second base, his bat would become even more valuable. There are not many good hitting second baseman, and even fewer of them defend well. Ackley, with his athleticism, baseball acumen, and work ethic, has a good chance to be the complete package at second.

I am excited that the Mariners are going to work Ackley out at second base. It makes some sense with where the roster is at right now. It further paves the way for Jose Lopez to get traded, or move to third base. Either move makes more sense than keeping him at second base.

This team continues to find ways to get better. It is either a sign of progress, or of complete ineptitude, when a guy who pitched as much as Jakubauskas is let go for nothing. In this case, it is progress. Two years ago, the M's were cutting players loose like Richie Sexson and Jose Vidro. Now, teams want the M's scraps. This roster still has a long way to go, but it has also come a long way.