Walker's Progress

The Taijuan Walker that shut down the Angels last night is the not the Taijuan Walker that took the mound in April for the Mariners. His early season struggles were well documented, and now his hot streak is garnering just as much attention. I, for one, said that he needed to stay in the majors when he was struggling because his biggest problem was how well hitters were doing when Walker was ahead in the count. He needed to figure out how to put MLB batters away, and I wasn't convinced AAA hitters would provide enough of a challenge for Walker to take this next step.

Here are what Walker's count maps look like now. A reminder that the map on the left shows wOBA by count with red bad and green good. The map on the right shows frequency of counts, with darker shades occurring more often:

Right now Walker is on an incredible walkless tear, with only three this month (!!) However,  I could go out on the mound and walk that few batters in a month by simply grooving pitches. Sort of similarly, throwing strikes wasn't really Walker's problem early in the season. His inability to put away batters once he got ahead was his main problem, so part of the reason he walked more batters was because they hung around long enough to draw four balls if they couldn't find a way to square up a pitch before that. Now, Walker is back to destroying batters when they get behind, and his walk rate has predictably plummeted.

However, that is only half the story. Walker has also improved his command slightly but noticeably. 0-1 continues to be his most frequent count, but both 1-0 and 1-1 counts have diminished while 0-2 and 1-2 counts have increased. So, not only is Walker much better in pitcher's counts, he is also forcing batters into more pitcher's counts.

Some of Walker's turnaround is probably some simple regression to the mean. He flashed dominant ability when ahead in the count in his cups of coffee with the Mariners the last few seasons. Now his 2015 numbers look more like that version of Walker too. He will likely have some wild starts between now and the end of the season where he looks more like the April pitcher that had so many worried, but now his overall body of work this season looks more like what was reasonable to expect at the start of the season.

Taijuan Walker has undeniably found his identity again. There's no reason to think he can't keep up the good work as long as he is blessed with his golden fastball, and just as importantly, above average command of it. Walker's secondary stuff, particularly his changeup of late, is good enough to flummox batters once he is ahead in the count, but the high wOBA averages when he gets behind suggests that batters can make Walker very one dimensional when he gets behind. So, his next area of growth is harnessing an offspeed pitch (or two) enough to really start mixing up pitches in all counts. If he can do that, then he'll take another step forward and be a true front-of-the-line starter. However, even if he can't figure that out, he'll be what he is now - a good pitcher that gives his team a chance to win when he's on the mound.

Walker's Struggles Demand Patience

Taijuan Walker, despite a very strong spring, has struggled mightily so far this season. His ERA sits above 8.00 as I write this post.

Like any pitcher with such a woeful ERA, Walker is the "victim" of "bad luck." In other words, there are rates in his stats that should be unsustainable. For instance, Walker has only stranded 58.3% of baserunners (unsustainably low), yielded a .386 BABIP (unsustainably high), and sports a 15.3% HR/FB rate (extremely high, and unlikely to stay so high).

That's lazy analysis though. Just assuming that Taijuan Walker will get better through the magic of regressing to the mean is dangerous. The idea of regressing to mean presupposes that Walker should act like the majority of the MLB starting pitching population. Let me explain further with an absurd thought experiment. What if I told you that I had an unsustainably high HR/FB rate in the major leagues? You'd double over laughing, or at least I'd hope you would. I would be a glorified batting practice pitcher against MLB competition, and I bet batters could muster an "unsustainable" home run rate against me.

Why can't a similar argument hold for Taijuan Walker? If he had one peripheral stat that looked way out of line, I might buy the argument that he will regress to the mean with time. However, everything is out of line. There is something deeper going on.

I went into this post with a theory: Taijuan Walker is more of a thrower instead of a pitcher. In other words, he throws his fair share of strikes but often extremely hittable ones. I watched this happen in several Tacoma starts last year and he was too good to get touched up too often against AAA competition. Eventually it was bound to catch up to him in the majors.

Below are some color-coded tables. All of them are matrices that represent counts.

The left-hand ones show wOBA by count. The old adage that the best pitch is strike 1 is extremely true, and shows up in data. Hitters typically perform much worse when they are behind in the count and much better when they are ahead. The left-hand tables make a heat map of sorts to show what counts a pitcher is well above average in (those show up green) and well below average in (those show up red). A typical pitcher would have green zones in the bottom left corner, where counts they are way ahead in live, while exhibiting red zones in the top right corner, where hitters counts live.

The right-hand ones show how often Taijuan Walker faces a batter in each count. A typical pitcher will have a dark orange color in the top left corner that dissipates across the diagonal towards the bottom-right corner. This is because most pitchers throw a few more strikes than balls, and the average at-bat lasts 3 or 4 pitches. The extremes in the far reaches of the table require lots of pitches. The two tables together give a feel for what counts Walker typically works a batter to in an at-bat, and how batters fare in those counts:

Taijuan Walker, interesting enough, is NOT getting hit harder across the board in 2015. He got tattooed when he was behind the count in 2014, though like most effective pitchers he limited the opportunities that batters had to swing away ahead in the count. Overall, early in the season, Walker is roughly as ineffective when behind in the count.

It is worth noting that Walker's control has been shaky so far this season, which is born out in an elevated walk rate. It also shows up in the right-hand tables, which show darker colors in 2 and 3 ball counts this season. This starts to explain Walker's struggles. Batters are getting Walker in more advantageous hitting situations.

However, the real difference is when Walker gets ahead in the count. Last season he was quite stingy and flashed an ability to put away batters. This is what should happen when a pitcher has electric stuff. Once a batter is forced to expand the zone and chase, as with what happens when a pitcher gets ahead in the count, all that nasty swing-and-miss stuff translates to strikeouts and bad contact.

This year, at least so far, Walker is getting drilled when he is ahead in the count. In fact, one of the least effective counts for him so far is 0-2, which is insane. It would be easy to chalk this up to bad luck if only one specific count looked out of whack, but Walker is getting hit hard across the board.

The most likely culprit is Taijuan Walker's cutter. He is using it twice as often this season and has moved away from his curve ball. Cutters, even when they are super good, tend to generate weak contact instead of swings and misses. Walker is still pretty new to the cutter though, and if the results are any indication, his cutter is inconsistent at best. At worst it is a pitch that spins across the plate in the high 80s or low 90s, which is glorified batting practice for an MLB hitter.

Taijuan Walker is still a 22-year-old pitcher trying to find his identity in the major leagues. It's easy to forget that, given his tastes of success at the end of 2013 and 2014, plus his dominating performance in spring training. There are lots of predictable reasons that Walker is likely struggling right now though. For starters he is actively redefining his repertoire with his newfound emphasis on his cutter. This has a good chance to pay off down the road because it should theoretically be an easier pitch for him to command than his curve. Walker is also starting to face batters who have faced him in the past, and scouts have gotten several good looks at him against MLB competition. He has never in his past faced batters as prepared to face him.

The answer, long term, is not for Walker to go back to AAA. MLB hitters are illuminating holes in Walker's game that I am not convinced AAA batters would find. This isn't about something as simple as throwing strikes, and his stuff is good enough to overwhelm a number of AAA batters without really paying attention to command.

Taijuan Walker, despite being a top prospect on a team that expects to contend, is still developing and the Mariners would be wise to stick with him through the growing pains. He is not that far from being the kind of pitcher the M's can depend on for a run deep into October, and his odds of becoming that pitcher in the next few months are better if MLB-caliber hitters are pushing him to refine his craft.

Does Loe Have a Look in his Eyes?

I listened to my first Mariners game of the year on Sunday, which was awesome. The first action I catch is always soothing and refreshing to my baseball-starved ears. It was even nicer that the Mariners battered an aged Freddy Garcia and dispatched the Padres handily.

I also caught some of the pre-game show, where Rick Rizzs asked Eric Wedge about Saturday's ballgame. In particular, he asked about the pitchers, which included Taijuan Walker and Danny Hultzen looking quite good, not to mention starting rotation candidate Blake Beavan rolling out a new-look windup with success.

Yet the pitcher that Wedge described as most impressive was Kameron Loe. I'm dead serious. Wedge couldn't get enough of the action on Loe's sinker. Wedge talked about that more than Hultzen throwing seven pitches (all strikes) in an inning of work that included two strikeouts. He about talked about Loe's sinker more than the easy 97 miles per hour that Walker popped on the radar gun.

Justin Upton's Rejection a Shame

Justin Upton rejected a trade to the Mariners a couple days ago. This is the biggest news of the whole offseason for the Mariners, which sums up how the offseason has felt. The Mariners seems to have options, but none of them seem to happen.

The rumored package to get Upton was headlined by Taijuan Walker, and filled out with Charlie Furbush, Stephen Pryor, and Nick Franklin.

Basically, I whole-heartedly agree with Dave Cameron's analysis. This was a fair trade for the Mariners. It would have hurt to see Walker leave, but great to see Upton in the M's lineup. Trades are trades, not free acquisitions of talent. A team loses something to gain something else.

This deal made incredible sense for the Mariners, particularly in light of who is on the roster right now.

Kuma And Ollie Coming Back

The Mariners hit free agency with the pitching staff in solid shape, thanks to keeping Hisashi Iwakuma and Oliver Perez before either hit the open market. Iwakuma got a two-year deal with a third-year option. Perez got a one-year contract with performance incentives.

I won't spend much time writing about either deal because there isn't much to say. Both Iwakuma and Perez finished 2012 strong and the deals will look nice if they carry their success into 2013.

Iwakuma was a logical fit in the rotation, given his familiarity with the team already, and his reasonable $6.5 million price tag annually for only two or three years. Iwakuma should join Felix, Jason Vargas, and Erasmo Ramirez as "locks" for the rotation, and the Mariners should be able to find an in-house option for the fifth spot from their minor league pitching depth. That projects to be a respectable rotation in my eyes. Felix is amazing, and everyone else should keep their team in games (provided the teams scores

Felix still needs a true sidekick for a formidable 1-2 punch before the Mariners rotation is really good. Iwakuma isn't that, but Taijuan Walker or Danny Hultzen might be in the next few years. Iwakuma can bridge the gap until the youth is ready to shine.

Personally, I wouldn't have signed Oliver Perez, but I'm not about to quibble over a $1.5 million commitment. Charlie Furbush established himself as the first lefty in the bullpen, so Perez is redundant - especially with Bobby LaFramboise and Brian Moran looking like serviceable bullpen lefties in AAA Tacoma for the league minimum. The Mariners did not need to bring Perez back, but I suppose he also costs next-to-nothing by MLB standards.

I will write more when the Mariners find themselves some hitters.

Let's Get Real About Vargas

I wrote about a plausible trade for Jason Vargas before the trade deadline. Now, after a brilliant performance largely responsible for handing Jered Weaver his second loss on the season, I'm going to argue why Vargas should not be King Felix's sidekick long-term. If you think I hate Vargas, well, I guess I can't blame you.

The irony is that I thoroughly enjoy watching Jason Vargas pitch. He reminds me of Jamie Moyer in many respects. They are both quintessential examples of crafty left-handers. Vargas, by in large, forces his opponents to beat him*, and sometimes they can. However, Vargas has a terrific defense and Safeco's spacious pastures behind him, which makes the job tough for an opponent.

*This sounds like a "duh" statement, but pay close attention to baseball highlights some night. Most hard hits start with a meat pitch in a hitter's count and/or a hitter anticipating a specific pitch and getting it. Sure, the batter still struck the ball well, but the pitcher made their job a little too easy.

Vargas hysteria seems to be hitting Seattle. Maybe it is those Viva Las Vargas shades. Getting honored as the AL Pitcher of the Month in July probably didn't hurt either. The showdown with Jered Weaver yesterday isn't the only feather in Vargas's cap, merely the most recent.

I love what Vargas is accomplishing right now but I was struck by how excited other fans are. I listened to some of the radio post-game show yesterday on 710 KIRO and I couldn't believe some of the comments. One fan called Vargas a 20-game winner. Another implied that he compares favorably to Cole Hamels. Others talked about Felix and Vargas as one of the premiere one-two punches in the American League. In general, I got the sense that Jason Vargas is currently seen as more than a good pitcher in a good stretch. Has he ascended to a new level?

No.

Mariners Farm At A Glance

I feel like my annual list of MLB draft prospects needs some kind of build up, if for no other reason because it is so long. It would feel like a shock to the system without fair warning, and a little stretching.

So, why not ease into this year's draft coma with a look at the Mariners farm system as it sits right now?

All in all, I do not think it has been as exciting of a year so far in the minors for the M's, but that's not necessarily a bad thing. Many new players emerged last year, and some of them are following up break-out performances with worthy encores. That's good, because it makes it less likely that some of last year's youngsters are flashes in the pan.

Still, as in any year, there are surprises, both good and bad - as well as unsurprising performances, also good and bad. Below is my overview of the M's minor league affiliates, divided into hopefully useful groups: