Great Free Agent > Top Draft Pick

Scott Boras produces a range of largely disgruntled and heated reactions within baseball front offices. He is the game's pre-eminent super-agent, and as such knows how to manipulate MLB's system for mountains of cash that would make Scrooge McDuck blush.

Scrooge McDuck. Animated gif posted by user jazzyana at
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There are countless examples of Scott Boras's expertise. One of his better jobs in recent memory is Prince Fielder. Boras created a glitzy binder all about Fielder and sent it to all MLB general managers and owners. There appeared to be no market for him until Victor Martinez got injured January. Then, all of a sudden, the Tigers found $214 million they could spare the slugger.

It is easy to see why Boras is often painted as a necessarily evil in baseball. Teams consistently balk at his demands, but at the end of the day he is too good at what he does. He represents premium talent, knows it, and demands astronomical sums. Boras drives hard bargains, but inevitably some team seems willing to pony up.

By the way, the Tigers, after stunning baseball with the $214 million Fielder contract, went to the World Series this past season. It is safe to assume that Scott Boras notices when such things happen.

Process of Elimination

Anxiety keeps ratcheting up every day the Mariners do not sign a hitter. It is especially tough to watch a division rival like the Angels swoop stealthily in and sign Josh Hamilton. That might trigger a reaction from the Rangers, meaning yet another division rival may acquire a hitter before the moribund Mariners.

The waiting, in the end, will pay off. The reality is that the Mariners cannot compete with teams like the Angels and the Rangers in the open market right now anyway without paying way, way more than them. The fiscally responsible move is to wait the market out. The only risk with that approach is losing out on everyone. That's unlikely to happen for the Mariners though. It's a simple process of elimination.

Normal Keeps Getting Bigger

I often shake my head when Jon Heyman analyzes baseball moves. The man is well-connected and probably can get scoops with one eye open, but his opinions are often...fascinating. Anyway, this is all a precursor to say that I promise I am not about to poke fun at Heyman in this post. A tweet of his caught my eye the other night:

in last 2 days, guy w/ .298 on base percentage and guy w/ .211 batting average got big deals.
— Jon Heyman (@JonHeymanCBS) November 30, 2012

Heyman is referring to B.J. Upton (5 years, $75 million) and Russell Martin (2 years, $17 million), respectively. He rightfully points out flaws in both of these players' talents, and infers that both are getting more money than they should.

What if these aren't big deals though?

Kuma And Ollie Coming Back

The Mariners hit free agency with the pitching staff in solid shape, thanks to keeping Hisashi Iwakuma and Oliver Perez before either hit the open market. Iwakuma got a two-year deal with a third-year option. Perez got a one-year contract with performance incentives.

I won't spend much time writing about either deal because there isn't much to say. Both Iwakuma and Perez finished 2012 strong and the deals will look nice if they carry their success into 2013.

Iwakuma was a logical fit in the rotation, given his familiarity with the team already, and his reasonable $6.5 million price tag annually for only two or three years. Iwakuma should join Felix, Jason Vargas, and Erasmo Ramirez as "locks" for the rotation, and the Mariners should be able to find an in-house option for the fifth spot from their minor league pitching depth. That projects to be a respectable rotation in my eyes. Felix is amazing, and everyone else should keep their team in games (provided the teams scores

Felix still needs a true sidekick for a formidable 1-2 punch before the Mariners rotation is really good. Iwakuma isn't that, but Taijuan Walker or Danny Hultzen might be in the next few years. Iwakuma can bridge the gap until the youth is ready to shine.

Personally, I wouldn't have signed Oliver Perez, but I'm not about to quibble over a $1.5 million commitment. Charlie Furbush established himself as the first lefty in the bullpen, so Perez is redundant - especially with Bobby LaFramboise and Brian Moran looking like serviceable bullpen lefties in AAA Tacoma for the league minimum. The Mariners did not need to bring Perez back, but I suppose he also costs next-to-nothing by MLB standards.

I will write more when the Mariners find themselves some hitters.

Payroll Kind Of Matters I Guess

I keep trying to come up with fresh ideas for blog posts. The obvious one for free agency is a grand off-season plan. That would have been fun, and I have my preferences. However, I don't expect the Mariners to do much in the free agent market, and trades are nearly impossible to sniff out. So what's the point?

Instead, I have an overwhelming (but interactive!) data extravaganza. Free agency boils down to money, and in particular the Mariners payroll seems to be a topic of concern most off-seasons. The payroll has sunk about $20 million while revenues across baseball have risen, and it is fair to wonder if the shrinking funds have something to do with the team's struggles. Below is a visualization tool so you can explore just about anything you want relating team payrolls to team victory totals from 1997 through 2012. I would say more, but I still am yet to play with all the options:



Bottom line: payroll does not seem to matter as much as we might intuitively think. There is a connection between payroll and success, but not much of one in baseball.