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MLB Projected Standings, Week 5

The Mariners' hot streak has clearly energized Seattle to some degree. Is it enough to push them into first place in the projected standings after falling just short last week? And are there any signs of the American League separating a bit into contenders and pretenders?

You can read about the model here, or keep on reading for the updated standings (change in win total from last week in parentheses).

MLB Projected Standings, Week 5:

AL WestAL CentralAL East
Mariners, 83-79 (+2), 0 GBIndians, 89-73 (+2), 0 GBRed Sox, 88-74 (+1), 0 GB
Astros, 82-80 (+1), 1 GBWhite Sox, 87-75 (+1), 2 GB     Blue Jays, 84-78 (+1), 4 GB
Angels, 77-84 (-2), 5 GBTigers, 80-82 (-2), 9 GBOrioles, 82-80 (-1), 6 GB
Rangers, 77-85 (0), 6 GBRoyals, 78-84 (-1), 11 GBYankees, 80-82 (-1), 8 GB
Athletics, 76-86 (-1), 7 GB     Twins, 71-91 (-3), 18 GBRays, 80-82 (+1), 8 GB
.
NL WestNL CentralNL East
Dodgers, 94-68 (-1), 0 GBCubs, 104-58 (+2), 0 GBMets, 97-65 (-2), 0 GB
Giants, 89-73 (0), 5 GBPirates, 88-74 (-2), 16 GBNationals, 95-67 (0), 2 GB
Rockies, 74-88 (+1), 20 GB     Cardinals, 85-77 (-1), 19 GBMarlins, 82-80 (+3), 15 GB
Diamondbacks, 73-89 (-2), 21 GB    Reds, 70-92 (+1), 34 GBPhillies, 69-93 (0), 28 GB
Padres, 71-91 (+2), 23 GBBrewers, 68-94 (0), 36 GBBraves, 58-104 (0), 39 GB

Wild card play-in games: Blue Jays at White Sox, Giants at Nationals
ALDS match-ups: play-in vs. Indians, Mariners vs. Red Sox
NLDS match-ups: play-in vs. Cubs, Dodgers vs. Mets

Some musings:
  • The Mariners are actually projected to make the playoffs at the moment! It helps that they play in a weak division, but it is still a playoff spot!
  • The Angels and their recent barrage of major injuries, most notably Garret Richards missing the rest of the season with Tommy John surgery, will test this project system's ability to adjust with the inclusion of WAR totals.
  • Maybe the Royals were just lucky for two straight years. They are a .500 ballclub so far this year and the projection system thinks they will be even worse here on out.
  • It would be fun to see the Marlins get hot. They could conceivably push for a wild card berth with a few breaks, especially a surprising winning streak in the next month or so.
  • No huge changes in the American League, but overall teams near the top improved and teams near the bottom got worse. So, perhaps this is the week where separation finally happened. Then again, it could just be statistical noise! Future weeks will clear up the picture, but as of now it is a trend worth noting.