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MLB Projected Standings, Week 6

This seemed to be the week where the projected standings largely reconciled with the actual standings. Is this is a trend that will hold moving forward? Time will tell.

You can read about the model here, or keep on reading for the updated standings (change in win total from last week in parentheses).

MLB Projected Standings, Week 6:

AL WestAL CentralAL East
Mariners, 85-77 (+2), 0 GBWhite Sox, 88-74 (+1), 0 GBRed Sox, 91-71 (+3), 0 GB
Astros, 82-80 (0), 3 GBIndians, 88-74 (-1), 0 GB     Orioles, 85-77 (+3), 6 GB
Rangers, 81-81 (+4), 4 GBTigers, 78-84 (-2), 10 GBBlue Jays, 83-79 (-1), 8 GB
Angels, 74-88 (-4), 11 GBRoyals, 77-85 (-1), 11 GBYankees, 81-81 (+1), 10 GB
Athletics, 73-89 (-3), 12 GB     Twins, 68-94 (-3), 20 GBRays, 79-83 (-1), 12 GB
.
NL WestNL CentralNL East
Dodgers, 94-68 (0), 0 GBCubs, 104-58 (0), 0 GBMets, 98-64 (+1), 0 GB
Giants, 88-74 (-1), 6 GBPirates, 87-75 (-1), 17 GBNationals, 94-68 (-1), 4 GB
Diamondbacks, 74-88 (+1), 20 GB     Cardinals, 87-75 (+2), 17 GBMarlins, 82-80 (0), 16 GB
Rockies, 74-88 (0), 20 GB    Reds, 70-92 (0), 34 GBPhillies, 71-91 (+2), 27 GB
Padres, 71-91 (0), 23 GBBrewers, 69-93 (+1), 35 GBBraves, 56-106 (-2), 42 GB

Wild card play-in games: Orioles at Indians, Giants at Nationals
ALDS match-ups: play-in vs. Red Sox, Mariners vs. White Sox
NLDS match-ups: play-in vs. Cubs, Dodgers vs. Mets

Some musings:
  • The White Sox project to 87.9 wins whereas the Indians project to 87.7 this week, hence the switch in the AL Central standings.
  • The National League remained pretty stagnant this week.
  • The American League saw quite a few changes in projected records. More importantly, some stratifying seemed to happen this week. The league does not look like a hodgepodge of .500 or so teams for the first time this year. Whether this is an overall trend or a one-week blip remains to be seen.
  • As expected, the Angels projected record plummeted this week. How much of this is due to injuries and how much is due to all the injuries (and their impact on rest of season WAR) is hard to say.
  • The Braves are embarrassingly bad, especially given their final season in Atlanta before moving off to Cobb county.
  • The Red Sox are emerging as a very good team. The AL East is deceptively strong because it runs so deep with solid teams. There are not truly bad teams in the AL East. The Cubs and maybe the Mets are the only teams better than them at the moment.