thoughts on the Mariners, MLB draft, and more homelinksdraftabout me

MLB Projected Standings, Week 7

One team shifted a total of five games in the projected standings this week. A couple others shifted four. How much did this shake up the projected playoff picture?

You can read about the model here, or keep on reading for the updated standings (change in win total from last week in parentheses).

MLB Projected Standings, Week 7:

AL WestAL CentralAL East
Mariners, 85-77 (0), 0 GBIndians, 90-72 (+2), 0 GBRed Sox, 90-72 (-1), 0 GB
Astros, 81-81 (-1), 4 GBWhite Sox, 86-76 (-2), 4 GB     Orioles, 86-76 (+1), 4 GB
Rangers, 80-82 (-1), 5 GBTigers, 79-83 (+1), 11 GBBlue Jays, 82-80 (-1), 8 GB
Angels, 75-87 (+1), 10 GBRoyals, 79-83 (+2), 11 GBYankees, 82-80 (+1), 8 GB
Athletics, 74-88 (-3), 11 GB     Twins, 66-96 (-2), 24 GBRays, 81-81 (+2), 9 GB
.
NL WestNL CentralNL East
Dodgers, 93-69 (-1), 0 GBCubs, 105-57 (+1), 0 GBMets, 95-67 (-3), 0 GB
Giants, 91-71 (+3), 2 GBPirates, 88-74 (+1), 17 GBNationals, 95-67 (+1), 0 GB
Rockies, 75-87 (+1), 18 GB     Cardinals, 86-76 (-1), 19 GBMarlins, 80-82 (-2), 15 GB
Diamondbacks, 74-88 (0), 19 GB    Brewers, 70-92 (+1), 35 GBPhillies, 73-89 (+2), 22 GB
Padres, 70-92 (-1), 23 GBReds, 67-95 (-3), 38 GBBraves, 58-104 (+2), 37 GB

Wild card play-in games: White Sox at Orioles, Giants at Nationals
ALDS match-ups: play-in vs. Red Sox, Mariners vs. Indians
NLDS match-ups: play-in vs. Cubs, Dodgers vs. Mets

Some musings:
  • The Mets project to 95.3 wins this week, the Nationals 94.6.
  • The Tigers project to 78.79 wins this week, the Royals 79.78. This is the closest projected gap yet in the standing this year (fun fact!)
  • The Braves are this week's biggest movers in the standings, gaining five games on the first place Mets. It seems trivial though, to say the least.
  • The model includes a rest of season win percentage that is then adjusted for the competition level a team faces. Comparing the "raw" rest of season win percentages gives some feel for how strong divisions are relative to each other. The two worst divisions are the AL West and NL East, though for totally different reasons. The AL West has no great teams while the NL East has two great teams and two awful teams. It just so happens that one of those awful teams in particular is atrocious.
  • The strongest division by far is the AL East. This should not be too surprising - the MLB season over a quarter of the way done and there are no teams projected to have losing records in the AL East.