Mariners Acquire Leonys Martin

Leonys Martin
(EricEnfermero, Wikimedia commons)

Jerry Dipoto's feverish schedule isn't compatible with my full-time teaching gig.  I have no room to complain though. It's nice to have a backlog of interesting things to talk about when it comes to the Mariners. It's been a while since I've felt that way.

Today's interesting topic: the big five-player swap the Mariners made with the Rangers this week. The Mariners acquired CF Leonys Martin and RHP Anthony Bass for OF James Jones, RHP Tom Wilhelmsen, and a player to be named later.

Let's start with whom the Mariners parted ways with in this trade.

James Jones is a likeable player with a skillset that the M's previous player development unit arguably ruined. Jones, when first drafted, was an intriguing two-way player who had pitched and played outfield. He was noted for his strong arm (unsurprisingly), and while raw at the plate, flashed both speed and power.

However, somewhere along the way, Jones lost most of his power in the minor leagues and transformed into a slap hitter. This had to be intentional, or at least sure looks intentional. Jones belted 34 home runs in his first four professional seasons, and has just 10 since (over three seasons), including none in 359 MLB plate appearances.

Jones's transformation wouldn't be a huge issue if he was a good slap hitter. His speed should play up well with a slap-hitting approach that gets the ball in play and lets him use his wheels. However, Jones still strikes out a bunch, and his rate is especially high for a player sacrificing power to make more contact. This is ultimately why Jones is not an MLB-caliber baseball player.

The Rangers are almost certainly hoping that their player development team can either help Jones become a bona fide slap hitter, or (more likely) help him find his missing power stroke. Texas has a good player development record under Jon Daniels, and given the M's horrible player development record under Zduriencik, there is good reason to expect Jones to take a step forward with this move. I hope he does, because like I said earlier, he seems like a quality human being.

Tom Wilhelmsen was one of my favorite Mariners of the past few years, so as a fan it is hard to see him go. His classic power-fastball power-curve combo was fun to watch when he was on. His background of quitting baseball, bartending, and then resuscitating his career with the Mariners is the stuff of magical baseball stories that aren't supposed to happen in the 21st century where sports is a multi-million dollar industry filled with athletes who have trained their entire life. Plus, Wilhelmsen just seemed like a cool dude - unafraid to dance, scream, and generally have a great time in the bullpen. I would want to be on a bullpen bench night in and night out with a person like Tom.

However, the analytic side of me has wanted to see Wilhelmsen traded. His spotty command makes him susceptible to hot and cold streaks. He is also becoming more expensive as he hits his arbitration years. Wilhelmsen is an above-average reliever, but he is above-average by being untouchable for stretches and unbearable in others. I was convinced some team - maybe many teams - would be convinced that they could coax the untouchable Wilhelmsen out of him a little more often. I was even more convinced of that when Tom went on his hot run as a closer at the end of the season. Dipoto is selling high on Wilhelmsen in this trade.

More importantly, Dipoto sold high on Wilhelmsen to get a very worthwhile return.

First of all, Anthony Bass is sort of Wilhelmsen's replacement, but not really. The recently acquired Joaquin Benoit is Tom's replacement, and an upgrade at that. Bass projects to a similar WAR as Wilhelmsen, so the same overall value, but he compiles it in a completely different way. Bass is anything but flashy, or at least his numbers suggest no flash. Bass simply absorbs innings quietly and relatively effectively, at least in 2015. He reminds me a bit of Ryan Franklin, for those of us who remember the last time the Mariners were relevant. Maybe a better comparison is a right-handed Vidal Nuno. Bass could provide multiple innings in middle relief or start as necessary. The Mariners needed a pitcher like Bass to lengthen their depth on the pitching staff.

However, the centerpiece of this deal is Leonys Martin. The Mariners have themselves a bona fide center fielder that is built for Safeco Field.

Martin became available for two reasons. First of all, Delino DeShields Jr. emerged as an everyday outfielder and leadoff hitter for Texas. Second, Martin struggled through a miserable 2015 season - at least at the plate. Martin has graded out as a well above-average defender in center field for three seasons running, including last year. He is 27 years old, so also just entering his prime. Martin is a safe bet to cover Safeco's cavernous gaps. He is the ideal defender the Mariners have sorely lacked in center field since Guti's health problems arose.

Moreover, there are reasons to believe the Martin's bat will rebound in 2016. Martin's BABIP was a rather low .270 last year, which appears to be unsustainably low. An average MLB player has a BABIP around .300, and Martin is not average. He possesses great speed, which shows up on the basepaths and also goes a long way towards explaining his excellent range defensively. Players with great speed also tend to have elevated BABIP. Sure enough, Martin's BABIP in 2013 and 2014 were .319 and .336 respectively. Simply regressing Martin's BABIP towards the league average or his previous seasons brings his 2015 batting line in line with others he has produced.

Make no mistake, Leonys Martin is unlikely to become an impact hitter in the Mariners lineup. However, he should not be a black hole. Dipoto expects Martin to plug into the lower third of the M's lineup and that is a great spot for him. Martin is not an automatic out and will wreak some havoc on the bases when he gets aboard. Moreover, he would be aboard for the top of the Mariners lineup, which should be rather good. Zduriencik assembled a good core of hitters. It was the steep dropoff from the core that was the problem.

The Mariners finally have an outfield that lets me rest easy at night. They look set to platoon Seth Smith and Franklin Gutierrez in left field with Leonys Martin in center field and Nelson Cruz in right. I am not crazy about Cruz in right, but it will work fine with the supporting parts. It also looks like Dipoto still wants to add one more outfielder and the odds of that player being a good defender are high.

All in all, the Mariners gave up a AAA outfielder that might have some upside along with an up-and-down reliever for a pedestrian bullpen innings-eater and a legitimately good defender in center field. That's a trade I make 11 times out of 10, especially given the glaring holes on the roster before the trade.

The Mariners have taken a step forward this offseason, and they were not all that far away from playoff contention last year. The offseason has barely begun too. It's good to be a Mariners fan at the moment.

Cuts Galore; Roster Taking Shape

A couple rounds of cuts this week leave the Mariners with 40 players left in camp. First, the cuts:

INEVITABLE: C Mike Dowd, C Jesus Sucre, 1B Ji-Man Choi, "1B" Jesus Montero, INF Carlos Triunfel, INF Ty Kelly, INF Chris Taylor, INF Nate Tenbrink, OF Xavier Avery, LHP Nick Hill, RHP Logan Bawcom, RHP Logan Kensing, RHP Matt Palmer

No offense to anyone in the "inevitables." Several of them have potential MLB careers. These were all players on the wrong side of the numbers game and more or less around for the experience of big league camp until it was time to get serious.

SOMEWHAT INTERESTING: LHP Bobby LaFramboise, OF James Jones

I though LaFramboise might have a chance to crack the opening day roster since Oliver Perez is now in Arizona. I thought that James Jones would eventually get cut but not for a while longer with all the playing time he got. I'm actually relieved Jones got cut at this point because I wondered if Lloyd McClendon was too in love with him. He has things to learn in the minors.

So who will make the team?

ON THE DL: Hisashi Iwakuma, Taijuan Walker, maybe Stephen Pryor (still recovering from last season). That brings us down to 37 players.

LOCKS (18): C John Buck, C Mike Zunino, 1B Justin Smoak, 2B Robinson Cano, 3B Kyle Seager, INF Willie Bloomquist, OF Dustin Ackley, OF Corey Hart, OF Logan Morrison, OF Michael Saunders, LHP Charlie Furbush, RHP Scott Baker, RHP Danny Farquhar, RHP Felix Hernandez, RHP Yoervis Medina, RHP Erasmo Ramirez, RHP Fernando Rodney, RHP Tom Wilhelmsen

I know Scott Baker is a non-roster invitee, but he just got moved from a start against the Angels to play in a minor league game. The M's open up the season against the Angels, and Baker has already faced them twice. Doubtful these facts have nothing to do with the change.

The remaining battles:

Shortstop: Brad Miller vs. Nick Franklin - I guess this is a battle because the Mariners say it is. Brad Miller should have been the favorite coming into the spring, and even if he wasn't he's had a very good spring that should shore up his standing. I almost included Miller as a lock. Nick Franklin will go to AAA unless/until he is traded.

Capable centerfielder on the bench: Abe Almonte vs. Endy Chavez - The cuts have at least made this battle clear, unless you also believe Cole Gillespie could play center field regularly. Quite honestly, I almost made Almonte a lock for this spot because he's already on the roster and Chavez quietly slipped to below replacement level last season and he's not getting any younger.

Fourth and fifth starters in the rotation: LHP James Paxton, LHP Randy Wolf, RHP Blake Beavan - I think Paxton nearly has a rotation spot nailed down given the control he's shown this spring. Beavan and Wolf are in an interesting duel though...or sort of interesting, at least. The reality is that the whoever wins this spring training battle will get booted from the rotation once Taijuan Walker or Hisashi Iwakuma is healthy, and neither project to sit out a ton of starts to begin the season. Still, Wolf vs. Beavan is at least too close to call. Beavan has outperformed Wolf, for what it's worth, but Wolf is more experienced and left-handed.

Bullpen lefty: Lucas Luetge vs. Joe Beimel - Again, younger guy verses veteran, though in a more limited role on the team. No idea how McClendon will choose with this one, though I'd simply stick with Luetge since he's already on the 40-man roster and Beimel isn't.

The last bullpen slot: This position could go to the odd man out in the rotation race or one of the remaining righties I am about to talk about. Both Zach Miner and Dominic Leone have appeared five times, which is tied for the most appearances by any M's pitcher this spring. It's a seven-way tie, so I don't want to make that too big of a deal, but playing time suggests that McClendon wants to see these guys for some reason. They have both done well for themselves, though I still like Carson Smith even more and he has performed very well in his 3.2 innings.

If you count up all the players you'll realized I totally ignored some that are still in camp. Those are folks I expect to go sooner rather than later.

There simply aren't interesting battles in camp this spring, unless you count the faux battle between Brad Miller and Nick Franklin. The other reality is that the winners of these battles simply get the first crack at the job and there will be movement during the season. We already know Iwakuma and Walker will be coming back, likely before April is over.

Still, there is something special about an opening day roster, and most positions have gone from an unruly glut to a few extra names after this week's cuts. The 2014 Mariners are taking shape.

Spring Training Update

The Mariners looked pretty good last spring, so their good start this year is nice but hardly a harbinger of things to come. Still, winning always beats losing - and I will write that line even though the M's lost pretty badly today. Overall, the spring has to be considered a success. I'm still skeptical of this team's talent though, which keeps me from getting real jazzed. Here are some of the more interesting developments as I see them at this point:

Plot thickening in the outfield

James Jones has emerged as the story of spring training thus far. He's hitting pretty well and Lloyd McClendon loves him. It shows up in his quotes and the amount of playing time he's giving Jones.

For the record, I don't think James Jones should make the Mariners. He's got holes in his swing and he's yet to really play in AAA. The junk-ball veterans that often litter AAA pitching staffs will find Jones's holes. I think he's got some thing to learn in Tacoma that would serve him well.

With that said, Jones can play center field, and the Mariners are quite thin at the position. Xavier Avery can probably play some center field. So can Abe Almonte. However, both of those players aren't hitting like Jones in spring training, and neither have the tools that Jones possesses either.

I would still go with Almonte as the fourth outfielder, but Jones has a case at this point. He's outperforming everyone who was thought to have a chance at the fourth outfielder spot, and McClendon has clearly taken note. The outfield depth chart is getting rewritten with each game, and it's clear that Jones will shoot up it when all is said and done. The only question is how far.

The rotation race

Only seven pitchers have started a game in spring training for the Mariners; five will crack the opening day rotation. So the real question is who are the two odd men out at the moment?

I say one is Brandon Maurer. He has been roughed up a bit, has a start and a relief appearance, and probably started the spring as an outsider looking in.

The second man out is tougher to figure out. The next worst performer (in very limited innings) is Randy Wolf, but he has a ton of experience and potentially won't take a minor league assignment if that means anything to the M's. He is likely battling with James Paxton and Blake Beavan. Paxton has the most upside of the three, and at this point he will likely break camp with the M's if they decide he doesn't have something major worth developing in the minors some more before he takes on a role in the majors.

So, the real question is if Lloyd McClendon would prefer Wolf or Beavan. Personally, I'd probably favor Wolf just a tad, mostly because he is a veteran and left-handed. But I wouldn't complain about Beavan cracking the opening day rotation. Beavan is organizational depth if you ask me, but the Mariners are going to open the season with two starting pitchers on the shelf. I'm totally fine with Blake Beavan as the sixth or seventh starter on the team depth chart.

Maybe the more interesting sub-story here is that I think Erasmo Ramirez and Scott Baker already have cinched up roster spots, given their early performances and the injuries in the rotation.

So, if you are looking for guys to watch for in the box scores, basically every starting pitcher is interesting, plus James Jones and his direct competition (likely Abe Almonte and Xavier Avery).

Prospects Under The Radar

Thankfully, the Mariners have finally had some young guys worth following and getting excited about. Even more exciting, many of those guys are in AAA now, meaning they are just a short drive away in Tacoma, and also that they are very close to the majors.

The other exciting thing is that the Mariners finally have enough promising guys to allow some to get lost in the mix a little. The following are a handful of Mariners prospects that haven't caught many headlines, but are worth some attention: