Mariners Play Hardball With Wolf, Everybody Loses

The camo can't hide that Randy Wolf's best days are
behind him at this point in his career.

Another day, another starting pitching casualty, this time thanks to some odd roster gerrymandering. Today was when MLB players signed to minor league deals needed to be told whether they made the opening day roster or not across Major League Baseball. The M's had three such players in this boat - OF Endy Chavez, C Humberto Quintero, and LHP Randy Wolf. The M's had two such players in this boat - OF Endy Chavez and C Humberto Quintero. For good measure they gave LHP Randy Wolf a decision today as well.

Both Chavez and Quintero were informed they would not make the club. Quintero was a no-brainer with Mike Zunino and John Buck in the fold. Endy Chavez also was an unsurprising decision, and there is word the he already agreed to a minor league deal. I look forward to seeing him roam Cheney Stadium's outfield this summer (I make it to many more Rainiers games than Mariners ones).

Then there was Randy Wolf. He made the team and as a result got released, because this team is just loaded with starting rotation options at the moment. Bob Dutton tweets that Hector Noesi is now in the mix for a rotation spot after most (including me) assumed he would be among the first in line to get cut loose for 40-man roster space.

Only the Mariners. Is this what it means to be "true to the blue?"

Ryan Divish has nicely detailed breakdown of what happened with Randy Wolf today. Basically, Wolf made the Mariners, which guaranteed him $1 million this season - with one catch. The Mariners asked him to sign a 45-day out clause, which essentially gives the M's the option to cut him loose after a month and not give him all $1 million. Zduriencik says that it is a common agreement with players in Wolf's situation, and Divish points out that the rules do not allow the Mariners (or any team) to offer the clause until they have formally told a non-roster invitee like Wolf that they have made the team.

So, the Mariners didn't really offer a bait-and-switch or poison pill, but the damage was done. Wolf felt the clause substantially altered the contract he initially agreed to and he wasn't going to stand for that. Wolf wouldn't sign the out clause, so he and the Mariners are going their separate ways.

It's painfully easy to see why the Mariners wanted Wolf to sign the out clause. Both Taijuan Walker and Hisashi Iwakuma will likely be ready to go 45 days into the MLB season, which will come in mid-May. Wolf would have to outpitch either James Paxton or Erasmo Ramirez to keep a spot in the rotation, and potentially by a noticeable margin given that both could be long-term fixtures on the team for years to come. Wolf decided to take his chances now in the free agent market than a month down the road.

Wolf wasn't all that amazing in spring training, though not horrible either - but the fact remains that he is an old starting pitcher who didn't pitch at all last season and is even farther removed from being a productive contributor. I doubt he will find an MLB deal anywhere without signing that 45-day clause and he's even less likely to find a team as starved for starting pitching as the Mariners right now. It's plausible that Randy Wolf just turned down his best, and maybe even final, chance to make it back to the big leagues. It's also possible he gets scooped up tomorrow. The next week will be an interesting one for him, but at best he's making a lateral move, and the lateral move probably represents a better outcome than he can expect.

The Mariners clearly had the leverage in this situation and good reasons to both offer Wolf the out clause and expect him to take it. I don't think they were malicious or misguided offering it. Also, although the Mariners rotation depth is maligned, they have other options in guys like Blake Beavan and Hector Noesi. They are the kind of options that make a fan crinkle their nose, but to be honest Randy Wolf is much closer to smelling salts than citronella or chamomile at this stage in his career too.

However, in the end, I am not sure the Mariners made a good decision, even though it is easy to justify. Think about it: 45 days in the majors is roughly 40 or 41 games, depending on off days. In other words, a quarter of the season. So, the out clause would allow the Mariners to pay Randy Wolf about $250,000 instead of $1 million.

The Mariners just stood firm and let Randy Wolf walk over $750,000 after deciding he was good enough to make the opening day roster. The M's projected payroll as of right now is $74 million, $10 million below last year's mark (even after signing Cano.)* Ownership said the money is there to expand payroll for the right player, but the team's actions aren't remotely close to these words. Somehow they decided to tighten the purse strings further with Cano, even though he came out and publicly said that the Mariners need more pieces.

*Worth noting that this projection does not include bonuses which Corey Hart could earn. Those would push the payroll closer to $80 million. Doesn't change the overall point I'm making.

In the end, the Wolf saga leaves everybody a loser. Wolf increased his risk substantially of making an opening day roster with no realistic chance at more money or guarantees. The Mariners lost another rotation option in a group already considered thin. In the end, given that Wolf is near the end of his career and probably not much beyond a replacement-level pitcher, none of the on-field ramifications mean all that much. It's the fact that the Mariners were so stubborn over $750,000 that sticks with me, given the rotation needs and the context of their offseason. I don't get it; I really don't get it at all.

Cuts Galore; Roster Taking Shape

A couple rounds of cuts this week leave the Mariners with 40 players left in camp. First, the cuts:

INEVITABLE: C Mike Dowd, C Jesus Sucre, 1B Ji-Man Choi, "1B" Jesus Montero, INF Carlos Triunfel, INF Ty Kelly, INF Chris Taylor, INF Nate Tenbrink, OF Xavier Avery, LHP Nick Hill, RHP Logan Bawcom, RHP Logan Kensing, RHP Matt Palmer

No offense to anyone in the "inevitables." Several of them have potential MLB careers. These were all players on the wrong side of the numbers game and more or less around for the experience of big league camp until it was time to get serious.

SOMEWHAT INTERESTING: LHP Bobby LaFramboise, OF James Jones

I though LaFramboise might have a chance to crack the opening day roster since Oliver Perez is now in Arizona. I thought that James Jones would eventually get cut but not for a while longer with all the playing time he got. I'm actually relieved Jones got cut at this point because I wondered if Lloyd McClendon was too in love with him. He has things to learn in the minors.

So who will make the team?

ON THE DL: Hisashi Iwakuma, Taijuan Walker, maybe Stephen Pryor (still recovering from last season). That brings us down to 37 players.

LOCKS (18): C John Buck, C Mike Zunino, 1B Justin Smoak, 2B Robinson Cano, 3B Kyle Seager, INF Willie Bloomquist, OF Dustin Ackley, OF Corey Hart, OF Logan Morrison, OF Michael Saunders, LHP Charlie Furbush, RHP Scott Baker, RHP Danny Farquhar, RHP Felix Hernandez, RHP Yoervis Medina, RHP Erasmo Ramirez, RHP Fernando Rodney, RHP Tom Wilhelmsen

I know Scott Baker is a non-roster invitee, but he just got moved from a start against the Angels to play in a minor league game. The M's open up the season against the Angels, and Baker has already faced them twice. Doubtful these facts have nothing to do with the change.

The remaining battles:

Shortstop: Brad Miller vs. Nick Franklin - I guess this is a battle because the Mariners say it is. Brad Miller should have been the favorite coming into the spring, and even if he wasn't he's had a very good spring that should shore up his standing. I almost included Miller as a lock. Nick Franklin will go to AAA unless/until he is traded.

Capable centerfielder on the bench: Abe Almonte vs. Endy Chavez - The cuts have at least made this battle clear, unless you also believe Cole Gillespie could play center field regularly. Quite honestly, I almost made Almonte a lock for this spot because he's already on the roster and Chavez quietly slipped to below replacement level last season and he's not getting any younger.

Fourth and fifth starters in the rotation: LHP James Paxton, LHP Randy Wolf, RHP Blake Beavan - I think Paxton nearly has a rotation spot nailed down given the control he's shown this spring. Beavan and Wolf are in an interesting duel though...or sort of interesting, at least. The reality is that the whoever wins this spring training battle will get booted from the rotation once Taijuan Walker or Hisashi Iwakuma is healthy, and neither project to sit out a ton of starts to begin the season. Still, Wolf vs. Beavan is at least too close to call. Beavan has outperformed Wolf, for what it's worth, but Wolf is more experienced and left-handed.

Bullpen lefty: Lucas Luetge vs. Joe Beimel - Again, younger guy verses veteran, though in a more limited role on the team. No idea how McClendon will choose with this one, though I'd simply stick with Luetge since he's already on the 40-man roster and Beimel isn't.

The last bullpen slot: This position could go to the odd man out in the rotation race or one of the remaining righties I am about to talk about. Both Zach Miner and Dominic Leone have appeared five times, which is tied for the most appearances by any M's pitcher this spring. It's a seven-way tie, so I don't want to make that too big of a deal, but playing time suggests that McClendon wants to see these guys for some reason. They have both done well for themselves, though I still like Carson Smith even more and he has performed very well in his 3.2 innings.

If you count up all the players you'll realized I totally ignored some that are still in camp. Those are folks I expect to go sooner rather than later.

There simply aren't interesting battles in camp this spring, unless you count the faux battle between Brad Miller and Nick Franklin. The other reality is that the winners of these battles simply get the first crack at the job and there will be movement during the season. We already know Iwakuma and Walker will be coming back, likely before April is over.

Still, there is something special about an opening day roster, and most positions have gone from an unruly glut to a few extra names after this week's cuts. The 2014 Mariners are taking shape.

Spring Training Update

The Mariners looked pretty good last spring, so their good start this year is nice but hardly a harbinger of things to come. Still, winning always beats losing - and I will write that line even though the M's lost pretty badly today. Overall, the spring has to be considered a success. I'm still skeptical of this team's talent though, which keeps me from getting real jazzed. Here are some of the more interesting developments as I see them at this point:

Plot thickening in the outfield

James Jones has emerged as the story of spring training thus far. He's hitting pretty well and Lloyd McClendon loves him. It shows up in his quotes and the amount of playing time he's giving Jones.

For the record, I don't think James Jones should make the Mariners. He's got holes in his swing and he's yet to really play in AAA. The junk-ball veterans that often litter AAA pitching staffs will find Jones's holes. I think he's got some thing to learn in Tacoma that would serve him well.

With that said, Jones can play center field, and the Mariners are quite thin at the position. Xavier Avery can probably play some center field. So can Abe Almonte. However, both of those players aren't hitting like Jones in spring training, and neither have the tools that Jones possesses either.

I would still go with Almonte as the fourth outfielder, but Jones has a case at this point. He's outperforming everyone who was thought to have a chance at the fourth outfielder spot, and McClendon has clearly taken note. The outfield depth chart is getting rewritten with each game, and it's clear that Jones will shoot up it when all is said and done. The only question is how far.

The rotation race

Only seven pitchers have started a game in spring training for the Mariners; five will crack the opening day rotation. So the real question is who are the two odd men out at the moment?

I say one is Brandon Maurer. He has been roughed up a bit, has a start and a relief appearance, and probably started the spring as an outsider looking in.

The second man out is tougher to figure out. The next worst performer (in very limited innings) is Randy Wolf, but he has a ton of experience and potentially won't take a minor league assignment if that means anything to the M's. He is likely battling with James Paxton and Blake Beavan. Paxton has the most upside of the three, and at this point he will likely break camp with the M's if they decide he doesn't have something major worth developing in the minors some more before he takes on a role in the majors.

So, the real question is if Lloyd McClendon would prefer Wolf or Beavan. Personally, I'd probably favor Wolf just a tad, mostly because he is a veteran and left-handed. But I wouldn't complain about Beavan cracking the opening day rotation. Beavan is organizational depth if you ask me, but the Mariners are going to open the season with two starting pitchers on the shelf. I'm totally fine with Blake Beavan as the sixth or seventh starter on the team depth chart.

Maybe the more interesting sub-story here is that I think Erasmo Ramirez and Scott Baker already have cinched up roster spots, given their early performances and the injuries in the rotation.

So, if you are looking for guys to watch for in the box scores, basically every starting pitcher is interesting, plus James Jones and his direct competition (likely Abe Almonte and Xavier Avery).

More Pitching

Fernando Rodney

The Mariners have signed a trio of arms since the last time I wrote. Might as well lump them together and call it a blog post. Here they are:

Fernando Rodney - Rodney is the one of the bunch signed to an MLB deal, and will take over as closer from Lord Farquhar. By in large I hate this move, with no offense meant towards Rodney (and I really mean that! I kind of like Rodney's "magic plantain" thing). Rodney is an aging reliever with questionable control and unquestionably electric stuff. His 2012 campaign was magical, and while not quite the product of smoke and mirrors, fueled largely by all sorts of things breaking his way. Bottom line: Rodney is an old reliever with strengths and flaws. Danny Farquhar is a young reliever with strengths and flaws, and arguably better strengths with fewer flaws. I think Rodney will be a fine addition on the field, but not at the price the Mariners paid. Inefficient investment, which the M's can't afford to make because apparently they don't have much left since signing Robinson Cano to a massive deal.

Randy Wolf - Nothing will probably come from Wolf's minor league invite, but I like it. Wolf is an aging lefty coming off of Tommy John surgery. He didn't pitch at all last year, and was roughly replacement level in 2012. He'll have to be a born-again pitcher to be an asset...but Tommy John surgeries spur pitcher revivals from time to time. If Wolf finds a second wind with his new elbow ligament he brings a decade of solid starting pitching to the table. My best guess is that he's out of gas, but I don't mind at all that the Mariners decided to find out if he has something left. The M's should always look to bring guys in like this because Safeco Field can cover warts as veteran pitchers shake some rust off and try to revive their careers.

Zach Miner - Miner is pretty much the definition of a replacement level pitcher. I expect him to quietly produce some solid innings in Tacoma. He's coming to camp on a minor league deal, so no qualms, but I'm not going to write more unless he lights up the Cactus League - which he won't, because he pitches to contact, as evidence by a career K/9 rate below 6.

So there you go, more moves, none of consequence, other than the bullpen shuffling around for no good reason.