Mariners Decide They Want To Field Actual MLB Outfield

Austin Jackson (wikimedia commons)

Lo and behold, the Mariners were active at the trade deadline! When the dust settled the Mariners grabbed a pair of right-handed outfielders for nobody on the current MLB roster. Clearly they are better, and addressed their most glaring spots of need. Time to get to know the newest Mariners, just how much better they've made the team, and how much was given up to get them:

Mariners acquire OF Chris Denorfia from the Padres for OF Abe Almonte and RHP Stephen Kohlscheen

Denorfia is what he is, a right-handed bat with a bit of gap power and good corner outfield defense. He becomes a free agent at the end of the year and is 34 years old. He is a rental and marginal upgrade for most teams, though not the Mariners. Keep in mind he will replace a slew of right-fielders that have combined for about -1.5 WAR this season. He could be as much as a 2-win upgrade because he supplants players posting negative totals.

The Mariners gave up a surprising amount at first glance, though not an alarming amount. It depends on how much you like Almonte. I still like him as a fourth outfielder, and frankly he was a better option than James Jones in center this whole time (though Jones likely has more long-term upside). Kohlscheen also looks like a solid bullpen piece, but he was buried in the Mariners embarrassment of bullpen riches.

Usually, a player like Denorfia comes at virtually no cost (like cash or a player to be named later), but this wasn't a normal market. Very few bats were available, and the ones that went tended to go for surprising prices. Asdrubal Cabrera, in a down year, netted Cleveland a surprisingly decent shortstop prospect in Zach Walters. Gerardo Parra, an all-glove, limited-bat type, went to the Brewers for a pair of prospects. It seems to me that the price the M's paid for Denorfia is in line with this year's market values. More importantly, the Mariners kept their group of core prospects together. At least until a few hours later...

Mariners acquire OF Austin Jackson from the Tigers for 2B Nick Franklin (who goes to the Rays in the David Price blockbuster)

It's hard not to like this deal for the Mariners. Jackson is a bona fide center fielder, though his defense has slipped the last few years according to advanced metrics. Still, defensively, he's an upgrade over James Jones (at least until Jones develops further; I like his raw tools) and is lightyears ahead of Jones with the bat. Jackson strikes out a bit, but with some power. He was a 5-win player a few seasons ago and is still just 27 years old. He should be entering his prime right about now. Jackson is also under team control through next season, so he is not a pure rental.

Nick Franklin is a more than fair price for Jackson. Franklin had no spot on the Mariners once Robinson Cano signed. He continues to crush AAA pitching and strike out too much in the majors. Either he will figure out MLB pitching or he won't. I think Franklin will, and if/when he does he could be a good everyday player for the Rays. However, his high strikeout rates make me wonder if Sean Rodriguez is a reasonable comp for him at this point - and if that's the comp, then the Mariners swung a great deal.

Honestly, I am pleasantly surprised that the Mariners could get Jackson for Franklin, straight up, and also pleasantly surprised that Zduriencik pulled the trigger on this deal. I have a hard time imagining this trade turning into a disaster, even if Franklin develops into a good player.

Overall, the Mariners are probably 2 or 3 wins better between now and the end of the season with Jackson and Denorfia, and only gave up one core prospect to improve - and of the core prospects, Nick Franklin was the most expendable thanks to Robinson Cano.

The Mariners may or may not make the playoffs with the roster they have, but they should hang around the race. Their rotation could get huge boosts from James Paxton and Taijuan Walker if either can get totally healthy and locked in between now and September. Denorfia and Jackson aren't the same kind of additions the A's and Tigers made grabbling Lester and David Price, respectively, but I'm not sure what else the Mariners could have done that would have made good sense. Two thumbs up from me. Time to see how the pennant race unfolds.

Rainiers Recap - 7/3/14, Reno 1, Tacoma 5

Skydivers entered the stadium pre-game. America!

I attended the Rainiers' annual Independence Day spectacular, and it was spectacular indeed! I also chose it as my annual game to take score at, simply to find out if I still remember how to score a baseball game. It turns out that I do, and armed with my score card, I'm capable of a nice little game recap.

Aces 1, Rainiers 5

Summary: This game was a cluster luck special, though the Rainiers gleefully accepted the good fortune. Tacoma, according to Mike Curto's recap, went 20 innings without scoring a run before breaking though in the sixth inning last night. Jordan Pries stranded base runners left and right throughout his seven innings of work, while his adversary for the Aces, Charles Brewer, proved largely untouchable until the fateful sixth inning. The Rainiers strung together six consecutive hits in the sixth inning, with the pivotal blow stuck by Ji-Man Choi, a bases-clearing double (sort of - Justin Smoak got thrown out at the plate, so only two runs scored despite the emptied bases). Abraham Almonte added a home run that appeared to land on the hill across the street right outside the right field fence in the eight inning, adding a finishing touch to the game and serving as a fitting prelude to the fireworks extravaganza that followed the Rainiers victory.

Game notes:

• Jonathan Stewart, a current NFL running back for the Carolina Panthers, threw out the ceremonial first pitch. He graduated from Timberline High School and obviously maintains a connection with his hometown roots. It is odd to see the best athlete on a professional field throw out a ceremonial pitch and do nothing else. The wonders of AAA baseball, particularly on one of the biggest nights of the year.
• Jordan Pries makes the most of his talent thanks to his composure. Ultimately, his pitching line was pretty nice - 7 innings, 1 run, 6 hits, 3 walks, 7 strikeouts, 99 pitches. However, the line does not capture everything. Pries labored early on, throwing 18 pitches in the first inning and 25 in the second, where he also managed to wriggle out of a bases-loaded jam. His only clean 1-2-3 inning came in the third. He worked around a Chris Taylor error in the sixth. Pries had to deal with the stress of a very tight game too, given that the Rainiers did not score until the sixth inning. Pries topped out at 90mph, which is normal for him (I've seen him start a few times now), and if he threw a few miles an hour harder he would get way more buzz. His ability to manage his pitch count, continually strand base runners, and keep the Rainiers in the game until they broke through, was probably a bit lucky, but not all luck. Pries has high "pitchability" as scouts would say. He knows how to pitch.
• Stephen Kohlscheen pitched the eighth inning for the Rainiers. This was my first chance to see him and I was interested to see him. He hasn't generated much buzz despite blitzing through the M's minor leagues with impressive numbers out of the bullpen. He worked a fairly clean eighth inning, allowing no hits or runs with a walk and a strikeout. The first thing that stands out about Kohlscheen is his height - he's listed at 6'6" and looks every bit that tall. His eighth inning enthralled me because I'm not entirely sure how he generates the results that he does. Kohlscheen doesn't throw particularly hard. He consistently hit 90mph, and occasionally touched 91 or 92 when he reached back for a little extra on his fastball. However, he generated a surprising number of swings and misses, and some batters looked late and uncomfortable in the batter's box. The best explanation I have is Kohlscheen's wind-up. He uses his height to his full advantage with a high arm slot, which creates an abnormally downward angle for the ball's path to home plate. Moreover, Kohlscheen appears to hide the ball well from batters by keeping his pitching arm low behind his back and plant leg most of the delivery. The first comp that came to mind as I watched him last night is current Mariners miracle-worker Chris Young.
• Stephen Pryor worked the ninth inning for the Rainiers. He sat at 92mph early in counts with an easy delivery. However, the old flame-throwing Pryor seems to still be around, because once he got two strikes on a batter he dialed up to 95mph, again with a relatively easy delivery. He gave up a hard-hit double (that, by the way, probably gets caught by a better right fielder than Stefen Romero, who took a circuitous route before jumping up against the right field wall to try to catch it) but followed that with two strikeouts to finish off the Rainiers victory.
• Nick Franklin extended his hitting streak to 12 games with a double in the middle of Tacoma's sixth-inning barrage.

  

  Jesus Montero (#40) didn't play in the
  game, but warmed up Jordan Pries a
  few times between innings.

• Abe Almonte had a very promising night. He saw 10 total pitches in his first two at-bats before getting aggressive in his final two. He ended up with two hits, a solid single the opposite way to left field in the sixth inning (on the second pitch of the at-bat), and the aforementioned bomb he pulled to right field that led off the eighth inning. What also made the home run impressive to me is that it came on the first pitch of the at-bat, off of Kevin Munson, whom the Aces had just inserted into the game. This suggests to me that Almonte's confidence at the plate is on the rise. He went into that at-bat knowing he would swing if he saw a particular pitch - clearly, he got it, and did not miss it. He wasn't just swinging at anything thrown, as evidenced by his extended at-bats early in the game. Almonte has holes in his swing and must compensate for them with a disciplined approach at the plate. He exhibited great discipline in this contest.
• Justin Smoak had an unassuming night at the plate. He went 1-4, collecting a single in the middle of Tacoma's sixth-inning outburst. The single in the sixth inning was easily his most impressive at-bat as it came on the eighth pitch in a 2-2 count.
• Stefen Romero is too aggressive at the plate. He ended up with a single in the sixth inning on a hard-hit ground ball that just eluded the shortstop. He only saw seven pitches total in his three plate appearances on the night and did not make memorable contact.
• Chris Taylor, despite an error on defense and a strikeout in the seventh inning, had a solid night overall. He got two singles, one to left field and one to right, along with a stolen base. He also did a solid job working counts, seeing 15 pitches total in his 4 plate appearances. The only plate appearance he saw less than four pitches was his sixth inning single, which he hit on the second pitch of the at-bat and got an RBI out of. At the time, that single tied the score at one. It turns out Taylor's single was the first of Tacoma's six consecutive hits in the sixth inning.
• Xavier Avery deserves a shout-out. He went hitless on the night but was a pest. He only got three trips to the plate but saw 15 pitches. This is even more impressive given that he only saw one pitch in his second plate appearance, which he dropped down for a beautiful sacrifice bunt that moved Humberto Quintero to third base in the sixth inning (right before the Rainiers strung together six consecutive hits.) Avery lacks power but has good speed and does little things that at least make him an annoying out.

The Rainiers hit the road for a week before returning to Cheney July 11 for a quick three-game home stand against the Fresno Grizzlies before the AAA all-star break.

Story Lines to Follow (2014 Midseason Report, Part 3)

Taijuan Walker (photo credit: gty.im/451526750 by Bob Levey)

Taijuan Walker, as I type this post, makes his season debut tonight. That only seems appropriate as I wrap up my series of midseason reports (here's part 1 and part 2) by taking a look forward at some of the juiciest and most important story lines to follow through the rest of the season. The story lines at the MLB level are relatively well-known, which is why I'll also include some story lines sprinkled throughout the minors. I'll even offer some bold predictions!

Storyline #1: The starting rotation. The whole darn thing.

After three months the Mariners rotation has been okay, maybe even good. It's got the potential to derail or become one of the strongest units in the American League over the next three months. I'm serious.

What will Felix Hernandez do in the next three months? We know he'll be good, but how good? He's pitching as well as he ever has. It's unfair to expect him to keep up his current pace...but this is King Felix we are talking about. He's got a chance to win 20 games, and ERA title, and have the most strikeouts in the AL if he can keep his current pace up - and do all of that while likely pitching in the thick of a pennant race. How fun would that be to watch?

What will Roenis Elias do in the second half? Will he improve or trail off? He could do either. What about Chris Young? Will he get injured? History suggests he will. Is Taijuan Walker ready to take over a rotation spot? He starts to answer that question tonight. Can James Paxton get healthy? Can Erasmo Ramirez find his command by the end of the season?

I don't have a hard time imaging the Mariners rotation turning into the Felix and 'Kuma show, like last year, or rising up and featuring the King in his career year with a cavalry of number 2 and 3 starters behind him. It's interesting to have a starting rotation with such a range of possibilities at this stage in the season.

I predict that, as a unit, the starting rotation's production doesn't change - however, individual production changes greatly. Chris Young gets injured at some point and his loss is noticeable, but offset by Taijuan Walker's emergence. Adding another arm in a trade wouldn't be a bad idea, but I'm not convinced it's necessary. The Mariners have enough talent in house if it can get healthy.

Storyline #2: The missing bat

The Mariners could use another hitter. That answer could be Corey Hart, but I wouldn't bet on him at this point. In fact, I wouldn't bet on anyone in the organization right now being the answer. Instead, I predict the Mariners will pull a noteworthy trade in the next month. The centerpieces will be Nick Franklin and either Dustin Ackley or Stefen Romero, and in return the Mariners will get a left fielder or center fielder - perhaps a deal with D'Backs for either of their currently injured outfielders Mark Trumbo and A.J. Pollock, who should both be healthy by August.

Storyline #3: Who gets hot in Tacoma?

The Rainiers have a collection of players who could push their way onto the M's roster, especially if the M's offense slumps. It's easy to imagine Abe Almonte, Ji-Man Choi, Nick Franklin, Jesus Montero, Chris Taylor, or Stefen Romero in a Mariners uniform, partly because most of these players have already been up in the majors at some point this year. Somebody from the group is bound to get hot and generate buzz, especially considering that the Mariners are going with a large 13-man pitching staff for the time being. My bold prediction: Abe Almonte finds his stroke, and ends up in a center field platoon with James Jones.

Storyline #4: The Jackson third basemen

The Generals feature both Patrick Kivlehan and D.J. Peterson, two of the Mariners better hitting prospects. Peterson in particular is probably considered their best. Question marks surround both of their abilities to stay at the hot corner defensively. Obviously, they can't both play third base simultaneously. The easy fix would be alternating them between third base and DH, but this could also be a convenient excuse to give both of them playing time at different positions. My prediction is that Peterson plays some first base, but Kivlehan sticks between third and DH.

Storyline #5: Filling Vlad's Long Shadow

Fun fact: High Desert outfielder Gabby Guerrero is the nephew of retired Angels superstar Vladimir Guerrero. The older Gabby gets, the more he plays like Vlad. He's got a strong arm, power potential, and never walks. He's yet to have a crazy hot streak in High Desert, or a major slump. I predict he has one or the other, and I'll go bold and predict he has a hot streak. When that hot streak hits, Gabby Guerrero is going to look like Vlad. His hot streak will propel him up prospect lists and garner him recognition as one of the better outfield prospects in all of baseball going into 2015.

Storyline #6: More blasts, less punches

As mentioned in part 1, LumberKings prospect Tyler O'Neill flashed great power before breaking his hand when he punched a concrete wall in the dugout. How will he do when he gets back on the field? Did he start the year on a power surge, or is he simply a more powerful hitter than expected at this stage in his career? I predict that O'Neill slows down, though doesn't come to a screeching halt. He'll get to at least 11 home runs on the year, though with a mediocre average, low OBP, and high strikeout rate. He'll establish himself as a raw, intriguing talent.

Storyline #7: The next Mariners pitching prodigy

It's hard to analyze anything that happens in the short-season leagues for a plethora of reasons. Small sample size is an issue. That's combined with the majority of players getting their first taste of professional baseball. The short-season leagues are one big adjustment period for pretty much everyone involved. This is my long way of saying that there's no real reason to worry if guys like Alex Jackson and Gareth Morgan struggle this year, and there's also no real reason to think either of them will rocket through the minor league system if they show well.

However, very early on, it looks like something special is unfolding in Arizona. Luiz Gohara is about to burst on the prospect scene. He's already whispered about, but hasn't pitched much in the minors yet. He got 6 starts in Pulaski last season and looked very good. He has two starts in Arizona so far and looks utterly dominant. I predict that Gohara lights up the Arizona Rookie League, which won't get a ton of publicity, but will safely put him in position to make his full-season debut in Clinton next season. You might as well pay attention to him now before he blows up and becomes a big deal. Gohara is left-handed and I predict he will be at least as well-regarded as James Paxton, and could be the best M's left-handed prospect since Mark Langston.

The Mariners, unlike most seasons in recent memory, should be relevant through August and September. They are still relatively young and could get better from internal development. However, they could also go out and acquire some talent, especially as some of the really young players in the lower levels of the minors flash some promise. The Mariners have their holes, but they could produce a very fun three months, and this just might be the dawn of another golden age that at least gives M's fans something besides the late '90s to reminisce about with pride.

Honest Abe

The Mariners, for all intents and purposes, set their 25-man roster yesterday with the cuts they made. Perhaps you've caught on by now, but I've used spring training to feature particularly interesting players on the team - ranging from relative unknowns (Stefen Romero and Roenis Elias) to knowns that will hopefully take a step forward (Justin Smoak and Dustin Ackley). Today I round out the previews with Abraham Almonte.

The Mariners acquired Almonte last year from the Yankees when they traded away Shawn Kelley. It's hard finding much in terms of analysis about the trade because Almonte wasn't considered much beyond depth. He opened up last year in AA, despite being 23 years old, a rather advanced age for AA.

However, thanks to a lack of outfield depth combined with a surprising season at the plate, Almonte surged to AAA and muscled his way into the majors for a look in September which showed some promise. In particular, Abe flashed surprising power last year, blasting 17 home runs combined across AA, AAA, and MLB after his previous season-high in the minors was 8. His walk rate also improved without a loss in batting average. Lloyd McClendon reportedly likes Almonte's power-speed combo, so the spike in home runs is noteworthy.

Still, Abe Almonte, opening day center fielder? He's never been considered a bona fide outfield prospect. McClendon also appears set on making him the leadoff hitter, which further asserts that he's seen as a real piece on the 2014 Mariners. Is Almonte everything McClendon thinks he is?

Let's start with Almonte's defense. There's no way to know how good it is. Here's what is known though: the other options aren't good. Michael Saunders is capable, but below average and better suited for a corner. Ackley also didn't look big-league caliber in his short audition last season. Playing Almonte in center at least allows others to play better fits defensively; so, if Almonte can play center field capably, if not spectacularly, it's a real boost to the ball club. I am not convinced that Almonte is any better in center than Saunders, but why not find out? Nobody should argue that Ackley, Almonte, and Saunders are the M's best defensive outfield, given the other options on the roster.

My biggest bone of contention is with Almonte's hitting. He is not a leadoff hitter, plain and simple. Never has been, likely never will be. His strikeout rate in the minors has hovered in the 16%-20% range - in other words, a whiff roughly once every 5 or 6 trips to the plate. Predictably, that rate spiked a bit in the majors last season. He's likely to strikeout, on average, about once a game, which as a regular puts him on pace for 150-160 strikeouts in the season.

The strikeouts aren't enough of a reason on their own to bump Almonte down in the order but they point to the main issue, and in my humble opinion, the main error in McClendon's thinking. It seems that those in love with Almonte's skill set see a young man who hustles with great speed and surprising pop - basically a guy who will put lots of stress on the defense and stir things up at the top of the order.

Indeed, Almonte has great speed, and it results in both stolen bases and overall above-average base running according to the data available on FanGraphs. However, Almonte's greatest traits are only factors when he puts the ball in play, and he doesn't do that often enough, especially given his marginal power (even with the boost this past season) to be a true impact batter.

I worry that Abe Almonte will be for Lloyd McClendon what Brian Hunter was for Lou Piniella in 1999. Hunter was a gangly gazelle of sorts that the Mariners acquired as their latest, greatest solution in left field. He looked the part of a classic leadoff hitter - not much power but blazing speed. He stole 44 bases that season so he put that speed to good use. It was easy to see him flying around the bases in front of that loaded late '90s murder's row that the Mariners put together.

However, take a closer look, and Hunter was an abysmal lead off hitter in 1999. He sported a .277 OBP, which might explain how he scored only 71 runs with the Mariners despite Alex Rodriguez, Ken Griffey Jr., and Edgar Martinez (all in their primes) batting immediately behind him.

Almonte is a better hitter than Hunter ever was. That's not where I'm going with the comparison. My main point is that it seems McClendon only sees the positives in Almonte. That's the kind of thinking that leads managers to trot the Brian Hunters of the world out in pivotal positions despite crippling flaws.

There are good reasons that scouts have always projected Abe Almonte as outfield depth. He is versatile, with some speed, and even some power, but holes in his swing and only capable but unspectacular defense. The Mariners are thin in center field, to say the least, so it's not surprising that a fringe player like Almonte is about to get regular playing time, particularly after a career year (at least to date). Playing Almonte is not a bad idea, given the available options.

Maybe Almonte is about to break out and become a bona fide starter. However, the odds are against that. Raul Ibanez is the only outfielder I can think of in the past 25 years that emerged as a pleasant surprise from the M's farm system, and he blossomed with the Royals, not the Mariners. The only surprise from Almonte last year was 11 home runs in 396 PCL at-bats - a league that tends to favor hitters, by the way. That power surge, especially in such a short span in a hitter's league, shouldn't overwrite years of data and scouting reports, at least not yet.

Overall, Almonte's skills still scream outfield depth much more than leadoff center fielder. Maybe he is more, but expecting it isn't a smart gamble.

Cuts Galore; Roster Taking Shape

A couple rounds of cuts this week leave the Mariners with 40 players left in camp. First, the cuts:

INEVITABLE: C Mike Dowd, C Jesus Sucre, 1B Ji-Man Choi, "1B" Jesus Montero, INF Carlos Triunfel, INF Ty Kelly, INF Chris Taylor, INF Nate Tenbrink, OF Xavier Avery, LHP Nick Hill, RHP Logan Bawcom, RHP Logan Kensing, RHP Matt Palmer

No offense to anyone in the "inevitables." Several of them have potential MLB careers. These were all players on the wrong side of the numbers game and more or less around for the experience of big league camp until it was time to get serious.

SOMEWHAT INTERESTING: LHP Bobby LaFramboise, OF James Jones

I though LaFramboise might have a chance to crack the opening day roster since Oliver Perez is now in Arizona. I thought that James Jones would eventually get cut but not for a while longer with all the playing time he got. I'm actually relieved Jones got cut at this point because I wondered if Lloyd McClendon was too in love with him. He has things to learn in the minors.

So who will make the team?

ON THE DL: Hisashi Iwakuma, Taijuan Walker, maybe Stephen Pryor (still recovering from last season). That brings us down to 37 players.

LOCKS (18): C John Buck, C Mike Zunino, 1B Justin Smoak, 2B Robinson Cano, 3B Kyle Seager, INF Willie Bloomquist, OF Dustin Ackley, OF Corey Hart, OF Logan Morrison, OF Michael Saunders, LHP Charlie Furbush, RHP Scott Baker, RHP Danny Farquhar, RHP Felix Hernandez, RHP Yoervis Medina, RHP Erasmo Ramirez, RHP Fernando Rodney, RHP Tom Wilhelmsen

I know Scott Baker is a non-roster invitee, but he just got moved from a start against the Angels to play in a minor league game. The M's open up the season against the Angels, and Baker has already faced them twice. Doubtful these facts have nothing to do with the change.

The remaining battles:

Shortstop: Brad Miller vs. Nick Franklin - I guess this is a battle because the Mariners say it is. Brad Miller should have been the favorite coming into the spring, and even if he wasn't he's had a very good spring that should shore up his standing. I almost included Miller as a lock. Nick Franklin will go to AAA unless/until he is traded.

Capable centerfielder on the bench: Abe Almonte vs. Endy Chavez - The cuts have at least made this battle clear, unless you also believe Cole Gillespie could play center field regularly. Quite honestly, I almost made Almonte a lock for this spot because he's already on the roster and Chavez quietly slipped to below replacement level last season and he's not getting any younger.

Fourth and fifth starters in the rotation: LHP James Paxton, LHP Randy Wolf, RHP Blake Beavan - I think Paxton nearly has a rotation spot nailed down given the control he's shown this spring. Beavan and Wolf are in an interesting duel though...or sort of interesting, at least. The reality is that the whoever wins this spring training battle will get booted from the rotation once Taijuan Walker or Hisashi Iwakuma is healthy, and neither project to sit out a ton of starts to begin the season. Still, Wolf vs. Beavan is at least too close to call. Beavan has outperformed Wolf, for what it's worth, but Wolf is more experienced and left-handed.

Bullpen lefty: Lucas Luetge vs. Joe Beimel - Again, younger guy verses veteran, though in a more limited role on the team. No idea how McClendon will choose with this one, though I'd simply stick with Luetge since he's already on the 40-man roster and Beimel isn't.

The last bullpen slot: This position could go to the odd man out in the rotation race or one of the remaining righties I am about to talk about. Both Zach Miner and Dominic Leone have appeared five times, which is tied for the most appearances by any M's pitcher this spring. It's a seven-way tie, so I don't want to make that too big of a deal, but playing time suggests that McClendon wants to see these guys for some reason. They have both done well for themselves, though I still like Carson Smith even more and he has performed very well in his 3.2 innings.

If you count up all the players you'll realized I totally ignored some that are still in camp. Those are folks I expect to go sooner rather than later.

There simply aren't interesting battles in camp this spring, unless you count the faux battle between Brad Miller and Nick Franklin. The other reality is that the winners of these battles simply get the first crack at the job and there will be movement during the season. We already know Iwakuma and Walker will be coming back, likely before April is over.

Still, there is something special about an opening day roster, and most positions have gone from an unruly glut to a few extra names after this week's cuts. The 2014 Mariners are taking shape.

Spring Training Update

The Mariners looked pretty good last spring, so their good start this year is nice but hardly a harbinger of things to come. Still, winning always beats losing - and I will write that line even though the M's lost pretty badly today. Overall, the spring has to be considered a success. I'm still skeptical of this team's talent though, which keeps me from getting real jazzed. Here are some of the more interesting developments as I see them at this point:

Plot thickening in the outfield

James Jones has emerged as the story of spring training thus far. He's hitting pretty well and Lloyd McClendon loves him. It shows up in his quotes and the amount of playing time he's giving Jones.

For the record, I don't think James Jones should make the Mariners. He's got holes in his swing and he's yet to really play in AAA. The junk-ball veterans that often litter AAA pitching staffs will find Jones's holes. I think he's got some thing to learn in Tacoma that would serve him well.

With that said, Jones can play center field, and the Mariners are quite thin at the position. Xavier Avery can probably play some center field. So can Abe Almonte. However, both of those players aren't hitting like Jones in spring training, and neither have the tools that Jones possesses either.

I would still go with Almonte as the fourth outfielder, but Jones has a case at this point. He's outperforming everyone who was thought to have a chance at the fourth outfielder spot, and McClendon has clearly taken note. The outfield depth chart is getting rewritten with each game, and it's clear that Jones will shoot up it when all is said and done. The only question is how far.

The rotation race

Only seven pitchers have started a game in spring training for the Mariners; five will crack the opening day rotation. So the real question is who are the two odd men out at the moment?

I say one is Brandon Maurer. He has been roughed up a bit, has a start and a relief appearance, and probably started the spring as an outsider looking in.

The second man out is tougher to figure out. The next worst performer (in very limited innings) is Randy Wolf, but he has a ton of experience and potentially won't take a minor league assignment if that means anything to the M's. He is likely battling with James Paxton and Blake Beavan. Paxton has the most upside of the three, and at this point he will likely break camp with the M's if they decide he doesn't have something major worth developing in the minors some more before he takes on a role in the majors.

So, the real question is if Lloyd McClendon would prefer Wolf or Beavan. Personally, I'd probably favor Wolf just a tad, mostly because he is a veteran and left-handed. But I wouldn't complain about Beavan cracking the opening day rotation. Beavan is organizational depth if you ask me, but the Mariners are going to open the season with two starting pitchers on the shelf. I'm totally fine with Blake Beavan as the sixth or seventh starter on the team depth chart.

Maybe the more interesting sub-story here is that I think Erasmo Ramirez and Scott Baker already have cinched up roster spots, given their early performances and the injuries in the rotation.

So, if you are looking for guys to watch for in the box scores, basically every starting pitcher is interesting, plus James Jones and his direct competition (likely Abe Almonte and Xavier Avery).