MLB Influence - June 2012

Last year I rolled out an MLB Influence infographic every month, in place of projected standings. This year, I'm more or less doing the same thing, with an added piece of data.

FanGraphs and Sports Illustrated have teamed up for MLB power rankings this season. The rankings are based on team WAR totals. I've now added this to the Cool Standings data, and search traffic data from Google Insights. I've also tried to make the graphic a little more interactive by sharing it on Google Docs. The result? It's below:

MLB Influence - April 2012

Last year I rolled out an MLB Influence infographic every month, in place of projected standings. This year, I'm more or less doing the same thing, with an added piece of data.

FanGraphs and Sports Illustrated have teamed up for MLB power rankings this season. The rankings are based on team WAR totals. I've now added this to the Cool Standings data, and search traffic data from Google Insights. I've also tried to make the graphic a little more interactive by sharing it on Google Docs. The result? It's below:

MLB Influence Rankings

My semi-hiatus from blogging is over! Today I'll release what might be the final influence rankings of the year. We'll see. I'm just not sure it will be interesting after today. As usual, click on the image below for a closer (in other words, bigger) look:

All the previous rankings can be found here. An explanation of what the bubble sizes and positions mean can be found here. Click "continue reading" for a few thoughts on the rankings.

MLB Influence Rankings

I got the latest rankings done a day later than I wanted, but oh well. The numbers are still from before the second half of the season started. Click on the image to enlarge it:

All the previous rankings can be found here. An explanation of what the bubble sizes and positions mean can be found here. Click "continue reading" for a few thoughts on the rankings.

MLB Influence Rankings

With all the draft coverage, the monthly influence infographic had to wait until now. Here are the latest influence rankings:

An explanation of how this graphic is created, and what it represents, can be found here. Click on the picture above to see the graphic full size. For comparison, here are the April and May graphics. Click "continue reading" for a few thoughts on the graphic.

MLB Influence Rankings

Click on the picture above to enlarge it. The file size isn't too big, but it's pixel size is quite large (just as a heads up). A full explanation on this infographic can be found here, including my methodology behind the bubble sizes and positions. If you want to compare and contrast this picture to the previous one (on April 10), it is available here.

MLB Influence Rankings

Sometimes, a picture is worth 1,000 words. I hope the one below is as well. Click here for a full explanation of this infographic. Click "continue reading" for some things I found interesting in the picture. Click the picture to open it in a separate window:

Projected MLB Standings

How to read the projected standings:
Team name, Projected record (wins gained/lost since last projection), Games back

AMERICAN LEAGUE			NATIONAL LEAGUE
West			West
Rangers	91-71 (+2)	-	Giants	90-72 (0)	-
Athletics	81-81 (-1)	10	Padres	90-72 (0)	-
Angels	79-83 (+1)	12	Rockies	88-74 (0)	2
Mariners	63-99 (-2)	28	Dodgers	80-82 (-1)	10
			Diamondbacks	67-95 (-1)	23
Central			Central
Twins	96-66 (+2)	-	Reds	90-72 (0)	-
White Sox	87-75 (-1)	9	Cardinals	85-77 (-2)	5
Tigers	80-82 (-1)	16	Astros	76-86 (+1)	14
Indians	68-94 (0)	28	Brewers	75-87 (-1)	15
Royals	67-95 (+1)	29	Cubs	73-89 (+1)	17
			Pirates	55-107 (-1)	34
East			East
Rays	98-64 (+1)	-	Phillies	94-68 (+1)	-
Yankees	97-65 (-2)	1	Braves	91-71 (-1)	3
Red Sox	91-71 (+1)	7	Marlins	82-80 (0)	12
Blue Jays	80-82 (-1)	18	Mets	81-81 (+1)	13
Orioles	65-97 (+2)	33	Nationals	70-92 (0)	24
Wild Card			Wild Card
Yankees	97-65 (-1)	-	Braves	91-71 (-1)	-
Red Sox	91-71 (+1)	6	Padres	90-72 (0)	1
White Sox	87-75 (-1)	10	Rockies	88-74 (0)	3
.
ALDS Match-ups			NLDS Match-ups
Rangers vs. Rays			Giants vs. Phillies
Yankees vs. Twins			Braves vs. Reds

The Twins are surging, to the point that they could end up with the best record in the American League. At the very least, they probably snuffed out any hope of a shocking surge from the White Sox...Meanwhile, in the NL, the west is red hot right now. It is a three-team race, and to add another dimension to the race, their records put them right in the middle of the wild card hunt too. It looks like there will be a nation-wide pennant chase in the final weeks, as seemed likely throughout the year according to the projected standings.

Projected MLB Standings: 2009 Review

The regular season is over, and thus project standings Fridays are over until 2010. The projected standings live on through the playoffs, though through the series odds page I update nightly.

Even thought we are now in the middle of the playoffs, it is still Friday. This post will officially wrap up the 2009 projected standings. I kept track of the a team's projected record each time I updated the standings, just to take a look at the results at the end. They are summarized in the table below.

The analysis is very simple. Each team's projected records were sorted from worst to best. The most extreme record was thrown out. This was either the team's highest win, or highest loss, total. This is the record in the "outlier" column. The median is the middle record in the data, the mode the most common record, Q1 is the record in the middle between the worst and median record, while Q3 is the record in the middle between the median and best record. The minimum and maximum are self-explanatory, as is their actual record. Teams are sorted alphabetically by city name. Click on the chart to enlarge it:

The projected standings give a good feel for how the season went. Several teams, like the Yankees and Twins, surged. Teams like the Dodgers and Pirates faded. Looking at the outliers, it's clear just how useless the projected standings are for the entire first month. I figured many teams would have wacky projected records, but almost every team's most extreme record was from the first week. Don't be surprised if the projected standings debut the first Friday in May next year.

MLB Power Rankings

In addition to the Projected MLB Standings, I'll be calculating power rankings this year. The system is based on my hitting and pitching rating formulas (which are new and improved, with .95 correlations to runs scored/allowed). The rating is simply the team's hitting and pitching ratings added together, so a team with a higher score will have a higher power ranking. This is a completely separate system from the projected standings formula, but since both at their core are concerned with a team's runs scored/runs allowed differential, there should be a correlation. In theory, the projected standings and power rankings should look more and more similar as the season rolls along, but earlier on the power rankings may be a better prognosticator of future success, because of the nature of the data. I'll work on formatting the data nicer in future weeks. For several teams, adding their hitting and pitching ratings does not equal their total rating. This is due to rounding errors (ex: 70.4 + 70.4 = 140.8 --> 141, but ratings round down to 70).

How to read the ratings: team (total rating, hitting rating, pitching rating)

1. Braves (160, 79, 82)
2. Diamondbacks (159, 79, 81)
3. Cubs (158, 80, 78)
4. Red Sox (158, 82, 77)
5. Cardinals (156, 78, 78)
6. Athletics (155, 73, 81)
7. Marlins (154, 78, 76)
8. White Sox (154, 74, 80)
9. Rays (153, 74, 79)
10. Blue Jays (153, 73, 80)
11. Dodgers (153, 77, 76)
12. Yankees (152, 76, 76)
13. Mets (150, 76, 75)
14. Phillies (150, 76, 73)
15. Orioles (148, 73, 76)
16. Tigers (148, 77, 71)
17. Angels (148, 75, 73)
18. Indians (148, 72, 76)
19. Padres (147, 70, 78)
20. Rockies (147, 75, 72)
21. Rangers (147, 77, 70)
22. Reds (147, 75, 72)
23. Giants (146, 74, 73)
24. Astros (146, 76, 71)
25. Royals (146, 71, 75)
26. Mariners (145, 72, 73)
27. Twins (144, 73, 72)
28. Pirates (144, 74, 70)
29. Brewers (143, 73, 70)
30. Nationals (142, 71, 71)

Expected MLB Standings

How to read the projected standings:
Team name, Expected Record (actual wins better/worse), Games back

AMERICAN LEAGUE			NATIONAL LEAGUE
West			West
Angels	90-72 (+4)	-	Rockies	91-71 (-2)	-
Mariners	80-82 (+8)	10	Padres	89-73 (0)	2
Athletics	80-82 (-4)	10	Dodgers	83-79 (-1)	8
Rangers	79-83 (-4)	11	Diamondbacks	79-83 (+11)	12
			Giants	78-84 (-7)	13
Central			Central
Indians	91-71 (+5)	-	Cubs	85-77 (0)	-
Tigers	89-73 (-1)	2	Brewers	81-81 (+2)	4
Twins	81-81 (-2)	10	Reds	74-88 (-2)	11
Royals	74-88 (-5)	17	Astros	71-91 (+1)	14
White Sox	68-94 (+4)	23	Cardinals	70-92 (+8)	15
			Pirates	69-93 (-1)	16
East			East
Red Sox	102-60 (-6)	-	Braves	89-73 (-5)	-
Yankees	97-65 (-3)	5	Phillies	87-75 (+2)	2
Blue Jays	87-75 (-4)	15	Mets	86-76 (+2)	3
Orioles	72-90 (-3)	30	Marlins	72-90 (-1)	17
Devil Rays	68-94 (-2)	34	Nationals	70-92 (+3)	19
Wild Card			Wild Card
Yankees	97-65 (-3)	-	Padres	89-73 (0)	-
Tigers	89-73 (-1)	8	Phillies	87-75 (+2)	2
Blue Jays	87-75 (-4)	10	Mets	86-76 (+2)	3
.
ALDS Match-ups			NLDS Match-ups
Angels vs. Red Sox			Cubs vs. Rockies
Yankees vs. Indians			Padres vs. Braves

The expected record is calculated according to my adjusted Pythagorean theorem, which takes Bill James's pythagorean theorem but also factors in strength of schedule.

It seems plausible that a 162-game season would dampen a team's chance to over or underachieve to the point that their record is completely indicative of how they played. That simply is not the case. While a majority of teams do perform as would be expected, every year has exceptions, and this year's exceptions are particularly interesting to look at.

Starting with the American League, the four best teams made the playoffs. In fact, the ALDS match-ups are exactly as how they turned out in reality. However, it is clear that the Red Sox and Yankees should have been the two best teams, instead of all four teams finishing with nearly the same record. The National League is much more interesting to look at, where the Rockies on paper should have home field throughout but instead they must play a one-game playoff with the Padres (statistically the second best team in the NL) to make it as the Wild Card. This is thanks to the Diamondbacks, who miraculously exceed their expected win total by a whopping 11 games, easily the greatest anomaly of 2007. In the NL East, there should have been no race, because as it turns out the Mark Teixeira trade did make the Braves much better. However, oddly enough, it did not translate into wins on the field.

The expected record ultimately has no bearing on actual results; wins and losses only correlate strongly with the formula. What it does is show who the best teams really were, and give an idea of how the playoffs will most likely go. It also illuminates teams like the Mariners and Diamondbacks, which have to improve in the off-season just to match their win totals this year because they overachieved greatly.

Projected MLB Standings: Review And Preview

Thanks to the All-Star Break, there's not much use in doing another round of projected standings this week. Instead, I offer an overview of the projected standings for the first half, and what they may indicate about the second half. The data is fairly simple to read, especially if you are familiar with box plots.

The following table includes every MLB team, and a summary of their projected wins for the first half. The first column (7/6) is the projected win total for that team on July 6, the most recent projected standings. The next five numbers are the five used for a box plot: minimum (min), Q1, median (med), Q3, and maximum (max). Maximum, minimum, and median are rather self-explanatory. Q1 and Q3 aren't as well known, but they are just as simple. Basically, if a set of data is split into four equal parts, the median is the number that splits the whole thing in half, Q1 is the number that splits the lower half in half, and Q3 is the number that splits the upper half in half.

This means that half of the data lies between Q1 and Q3, so calculating the Inter-quartile range (the difference between Q1 and Q3) is a simple way to analyze variance in the data (more on inter-quartile range later). Also, I should note that maxes and mins with asterisks are ones that were adjusted. If the true min or max of the data was an outlier (which I defined to be farther than twice the inter-quartile range from either Q1 or Q3, depending on whether the min or max was being evaluated), then it was thrown out of the data set. Without further ado, here is the table:

TEAM	7/6	Min	Q1	Med	Q3	Max
Angels	96	90*	91	95	98	99
Astros	71	67	68	71	77	81
Athletics	85	84	85	89	90	92
Blue Jays	81	69	76	79	83	84
Braves	85	82	83	85	94	95
Brewers	91	83	85	91	97	103
Cardinals	72	55	61	67	70	72
Cubs	86	82	86	89	95	100
Devil Rays	61	57	58	61	65	66
Diamondbacks	81	74	77	81	84	86
TEAM	7/6	Min	Q1	Med	Q3	Max
Dodgers	89	88	89	91	96	107*
Giants	76	70	75	83	87	87
Indians	94	92*	93	94	94	96*
Mariners	86	69	74	79	86	86
Marlins	76	70	76	78	80	83
Mets	90	89	93	102	112	133
Nationals	62	41	44	62	64	68
Orioles	75	75	75	76	80	81
Padres	95	81	88	94	96	100
Phillies	81	77	78	81	82	85
TEAM	7/6	Min	Q1	Med	Q3	Max
Pirates	71	60	66	68	69	74
Rangers	71	63	63	67	69	71
Red Sox	102	100	102	105	109	114
Reds	68	67	67	69	79	80
Rockies	78	62	66	70	78	84
Royals	71	50	60	62	67	71
Tigers	97	87	90	95	97	99
Twins	84	77	81	84	85	86*
White Sox	70	66	68	74	80	85
Yankees	86	86	86	87	90	92*

First of all, the table gives a nice summary of the first half of the season. However, it also lends some insight into what might unfold in the second half. To start with, I will focus on the inter-quartile range (from now on abbreviated IQR). As previous stated, the IQR quantifies the variance in a set of data, which in terms of the projected standings shows how consistent or inconsistent teams have been. Teams with a small IQR have been very consistent, while ones with a larger one have been more up-and-down. The average IQR was 8. The Indians had the smallest IQR with 1, which means they are about the safest bet to win 93-94 games that you'll ever see. Other teams with low IQRs were the Marlins, Twins, and Yankees, all with four. So, don't expect any of those teams to make big runs, even though many expect to see the Twins and Yankees surge.

On the flip side, there are plenty of teams with large IQRs, led by the Washington Nationals with a whopping IQR of 20! Unfortunately, they are a really bad team, so it's pretty much the difference between 100 losses and 120 losses in their case. On the other hand, the Mets (IQR 19) are a good team most likely heading to the playoffs. However, it will be interesting to see if they just squeak into the playoffs, or if they are the class of the National League by the end of the year. Based on their first half, they could be either. Making matters even more interesting in the NL East is the fact that the Braves, with an IQR of 11, are also hard to predict. So, as of now, the Braves could end up winning the East if everything fell just right, or the Mets could run away with the division again, or anything in between could happen. Other teams with high IQRs are the Brewers, Giants, Mariners, Reds, Rockies, and White Sox.

Of course, all this analysis is dependent upon teams not changing much in the second half. Between injuries and the trading deadline, that is unrealistic. Really, the statistics show just how beautiful baseball is. Without trades and injuries, the variance that teams show makes the season unpredictable. Add in trades and injuries and it's a recipe for great intrigue and drama.

Projected MLB Standings

September has arrived! Every week I update the projected standings based on my version of Bill James's baseball pythagorean theorem. Like the orginal, the projections are based on a team's runs scored and runs allowed. However, I only project a team's remaining games and add that on to what has already transpired, and I also factor in a team's strength of schedule and the strength of the division they play in. Without further ado, here are the projected standings (the +/- after a team's projected record is how many projected wins the team has gained/lost since last week):

AL WEST
1. Athletics, 93-69, +3
2. Angels, 84-78, 0
2. Rangers, 83-79, -1
4. Mariners, 77-85, +3

AL CENTRAL
1. Tigers, 100-62, -2
2. White Sox, 94-68, -1
2. Twins, 94-68, 0
4. Indians, 79-83, +2
5. Royals, 59-103, +1

AL EAST
1. Yankees, 97-65, -1
2. Red Sox, 87-75, -3
3. Blue Jays, 84-78, -2
4. Orioles, 73-89, +2
5. Devil Rays, 64-98, -2

AL WILD CARD
1. White Sox, 0 GB
2. Twins, 0 GB

DIVISION SERIES MATCHUPS: Athletics vs. Tigers, White Sox vs. Yankees

NL WEST
1. Dodgers, 86-76, +2
2. Padres, 82-80, 0
3. Giants, 80-82, +1
4. Diamondbacks, 78-84, -1
5. Rockies, 76-86, 0

NL CENTRAL
1. Cardinals, 86-76, +2
2. Reds, 81-81, -3
3. Astros, 80-82, +3
4. Brewers, 74-88, -4
5. Cubs, 66-96, -3
6. Pirates, 65-97, 0

NL EAST
1. Mets, 100-62, +1
2. Phillies, 82-80, 0
3. Marlins, 79-83, +2
4. Braves, 78-84, +1
5. Nationals, 68-94, -1

NL WILD CARD
1. Phillies, 0 GB
1. Padres, 0 GB
3. Reds, 1 GB
4. Astros, 2 GB
4. Giants, 2 GB
6. Marlins, 3 GB

DIVISION SERIES MATCHUPS: Cardinals vs. Mets, Phillies vs. Dodgers

The A's are absolutely on fire and charging fast. If Rich Harden comes back and has any impact, this team will be really scary. Quietly Oakland has asserted itself as a power in the American League that rivals anyone...The National League wild card is tightening up again. It looked like a few teams may separate last week...I kept waiting for the Reds to fade and they may finally be giving up the ghost.

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