Happy Trails, Rob Johnson

Jack Cust was officially signed today, but the real news is about whose 40-man roster spot he took: Rob Johnson's. Rob was designated for assignment today to make room for Cust, in what is a bit of a surprising move.

I will admit, the fan in me immediately heaved a sigh of relief. Rob Johnson, to date, hasn't shown anything that warrants a spot in the major leagues. He is a catcher that isn't that good at catching the ball, and he does it with no power and plate discipline only in name.*

*I would agree that Rob took plenty of pitches, but many of them he should have swung at. It's not like Rob Johnson is a guy that pitchers are pitching around. I don't have any real analysis for this point, but Johnson took a bunch of good pitches to hit, which in my book is not plate discipline.

However, after taking a step back to analyze the situation, this is a precarious move, especially right now. Until Miguel Olivo officially signs, the Mariners have only 1 catcher on the 40-man roster, and the roster is full. It's a good rule of thumb to have three backstops, so that's alarming.

The Hips Might Lie

Rob Johnson had hip surgeries in the offseason. We know that, and we know they are the reason he has been held back in spring training. However, despite Johnson's limitations, we have heard many positives about him coming out of spring training. Particularly, Wak has said Johnson's swing looks much freer, and he is able to drive the ball much better. He attributes the changes to Rob's healthy hips.

Biomechanically (I hope that is a word), what Wak is claiming makes sense. A good swing is like a whip. It starts from the core, and a batter's arms/hands twist around their pivoting core before they get involved in the swing. Fundamental to pivoting the core is twisting the hips. Limited range of motion in the hips would limit the twisting action that begins a swing, which should in turn limit bat speed and range of motion. Consequently, bad hips could keep a player from turning on pitches, and limit their power in general.

If Rob Johnson takes a step forward offensively this year, many people will probably point to his healthy hips. I don't want to say they don't make a difference. However, I'm not going to be as quick to credit them for any offensive progress.

Johnson spent the better part of three years in succession in AAA. His wOBA in those three years climbed dramatically - from .258, to .311, to .351. Those numbers were accumulated in 359, 465, and 459 plate appearances, respectively, so not terribly limited sample sizes. Clearly, Rob Johnson made significant progress as a hitter in AAA, without any hip surgeries.

Johnson's wOBA with the M's last year was .274, and none of the major projection systems have him topping .300 this year. If he makes a leap forward like he did in the minors, he will easily cross that threshold, and people will probably be surprised by his sudden improvement. Reasons for his sudden improvement will be sought, and undoubtedly, his hips will become the predominant explanation.

If/when Rob Johnson hits better in 2010 than he did in 2009, I don't think there is a way to discern what portion of it is natural progress, and what can be attributed to his surgeries. I find it interesting that he was clearly a better hitter in the second half of last season, when intuitively he should have gotten worse as his hips deteriorated. However, the obvious benefits of healthy hips can't be ignored.

I just hope Rob Johnson is a better hitter, one way or another. His hip surgeries should only make him a stronger candidate to improve, especially since there were reasons to think he would improve before the surgeries.

A Dramatic Comeback Bigger Than Most

I usually like to look ahead and stay focused on the big picture on the blog, but every now and then a game comes along that deserves a recap. This is one of those games. It was almost one of those games before the eighth inning, and definitely one of those after it.

The Mariners came into tonight a beat up team, more emotionally than physically. Rob Johnson and Russell Branyan were both back after attending funerals, but it is not as if the grieving process is completely over now that they are back. On top of that, the bullpen got taxed pretty badly yesterday as the team continues to stretch out Brandon Morrow, so it was up to Jarrod Washburn to pitch deep into tonight's ballgame, with a back that has been giving him problems lately. One look at the starting lineup gave a sense of how the team is faring right now. The last four hitters combined have hit a total of three home runs this season.

The game got frustrating quickly. The Mariners were getting hits off Jon Garland, but stranded runners all over the bases. Jarrod Washburn started to get squeezed a bit with the strike zone, and then got a really bad break with the Stephen Drew bunt. Drew was on the grass for a few steps, which is clearly inside the baseline. Not surprisingly, Washburn hit him with the throw to first, allowing a run to score without any out being recorded. Drew should have been called out, and the runners should not have advanced. That changed the whole complexion of the inning, allowed a couple runs to score, and ran up Washburn's pitch count on a night the M's needed him to work deep into the ballgame. Meanwhile, the offense continued to strand runners. It was a frustrating game.

Frustration gave way to despair in the fifth inning on a soft fly ball to short left field. It was in no man's land, and both Yuniesky Betancourt and Endy Chavez charged after it full speed. Betancourt caught it, but in the process uprooted Chavez, who went down hard, and immediately was writhing in obvious pain. It was an ugly collision that halted the game for several minutes. Endy was ultimately carted off the field, a very rare sight in baseball. The moment was sobering, and made the frustration of the game sink into an even worse feeling. With how the game was going, and how that past few weeks have gone off the field for this team, this felt like the latest blow. If there was ever a game to mail in, this was it.

Washburn had other plans though. He settled into a nice groove, and made it through seven innings. He has been criticized many times for his inability to pitch deep into ballgames as a Mariner, but he deserves credit tonight. Considering his back was not feeling completely healthy, and the bad non-call on the bunt early on, Washburn hung in the game valiantly. He deserves credit for stepping up and delivering a quality start in the face of adversity, frustration, and watching a teammate getting carted off the field. Washburn sent the message that this game was not over.

Then came the eighth inning. The Mariners still had not scored. Russell Branyan scorched a missile into the right field seats to finally get the Mariners on the board. Adrian Beltre got on base, bringing the tying run to the plate. With two outs, Wladimir Balentien was slated to come to the plate, but Don Wakamatsu decided to pinch-hit with Ken Griffey Jr. Safeco Field came to life with a standing ovation, as thousands of fans in the ballpark and across the Pacific Northwest got the same magical vision in their head, dreaming, "what if..."

Tony Pena set, and delivered his high-octane gas. Ken Griffey Jr., the aging, 30-something slugger that has lost more than a step or two, and sat on the bench the entire game through unseasonably cold weather, had the odds stacked against him. The odds should have been stacked against him at least. However, Griffey wasted no time and attacked the heater with that sweet black bat of his, and even sweeter swing.

The click.

The drop of the bat.

The gaze.

The deficit was erased. Ken Griffey Jr., the aging, 30-something slugger, is still Ken Griffey Jr.

The game was far from over though. The inning was far from over for that matter. Chris Woodward reached base for the second time on the night via a grounder that was just a tad too far to Stephen Drew's right. That set the stage for Rob Johnson, fresh off the bereavement list after attending the funeral for his mother-in-law, who unexpectedly lost her life in a car accident. Not known for his hitting anyway, Johnson found a way to turn on a Tony Pena fireball too, and laced it down the left field line. It kicked away from Eric Byrnes, easily allowing Woodward to score, and with a headfirst dive Johnson made it all the way into third base with his first triple of the season. It might be the sharpest Johnson has hit a ball all year. The Mariners, a team frustrated, battered, and bruised in about every way imaginable, dug down somewhere deep and pulled out some magic. An inspired David Aardsma came out of the bullpen, and shut the door emphatically, striking out the side with pure heat.

The Mariners came into the game a team that could use some good news. The road trip was not all that bad on the field, but spirits had to be down with the personal problems mounting. Throw on top of that injuries, especially the one to Chavez in the middle of tonight's game, and it all seemed unfair. In the end, this team made their own breaks tonight, and gutted out a magical victory that they can feel great about.

It is dangerous to put lots of stock in one game, especially in baseball, but tonight's game was bigger than most. This clubhouse needed something to go right after all the things that have unexpectedly gone wrong the past couple weeks. It was not to the point where this team was going to completely lose it, but you could feel the season slowly slipping away. Tonight stopped the bleeding. It may not be the start of a hot streak, and it did not transform the team, or fix any of its holes. However, this team really needed something to feel good about it, and it got exactly that tonight. This is the kind of victory the team can rally behind, and think back on when the next rough patch happens. Tonight said something about this team's mettle, and also galvanized the team further. The Mariners needed a game like this to stay in the pennant race.

Quick Look at September Call-Ups

With September comes expanded rosters, and the Mariners plan to take advantage of it. Yesterday, they announced that they planned to call up a total of 10 players. Five of them are part of the ballclub now, and four more will join it when the AAA season ends on Tuesday (John Parrish was supposed to be called up today but wasn't, so it is unclear what the Mariners are planning to do with him now). Here is a quick look at the players the Mariners are adding, and the impact of the moves:

CALLED UP TODAY

• UT Mike Morse (69) - Morse had a knee injury that kept him out for a couple months, but he when healthy he was productive. For as big of a man as he is, he still hasn't flashed much power, though he has shown the ability to hit for average both in AAA and the major leagues. Ultimately, Morse's greatest value to the team is his defensive versatility, and he'll likely see a few at-bats as a right-handed pinch-hitter.
• OF Charlton Jimerson (56) - With 25 home runs and 35 steals in the minors this year, Jimerson possesses a nice power/speed combo. However, his power is wiped out by an obscene number of strikeouts - 139 in 387 at-bats to be exact. He'll be the designated pinch-runner, a role that he should thrive in.
• C Rob Johnson (62/73) - The Mariners have long been high on Johnson, and though he likely won't play much he should make his major league debut sometime in the next month. Johnson's strength is his defense, and his hitting has developed some. Still, he will be the third-string catcher, so he will see little playing time.
• LHP Ryan Feierabend (59/67) - Since struggling mightily in the majors, Ryan has settled down and ended up having a solid year in Tacoma. Still, he's not ready for a pivotal role on this team. He should take over mop-up duty in any potential blow-outs down the stretch, freeing up Ryan Rowland-Smith for more important innings.
• RHP Sean White (68) - The Rule Five draft pick is back, and he is the biggest addition of the guys called up today. White will join Feierabend as a mop-up man, though he is a better pitcher than Ryan right now. The two of them should ease concerns of burning out the bullpen.

GETTING CALLED UP TUESDAY

• OF Jeremy Reed (68) - To a certain extent Reed has re-discovered the stroke that once made him a top prospect. He should be a good left-handed pinch-hitting option off the bench. McLaren may also use him as a defensive replacement as well, but that would be a mistake if he picks Reed over Adam Jones in any situation.
• OF Wladimir Balentien (71/83) - It will be interesting to see what the Mariners do with Balentien once he is called up. Wladimir is yet to make his major league debut, but he is the best player the M's are calling up. Balentien's greatest strength is a powerful bat, though he also has underrated speed. He has started to tap into his power potential thanks to remarkably improved plate discipline the last couple years. The odds are Wladimir will get very little playing time, though he should share pinch-hitting duties with fellow call-ups Mike Morse and Jeremy Reed.
• INF Nick Green (69) - Green has been tearing the cover off the ball ever since joining the Rainiers. Nothing about the rest of his career says he can maintain the type of hitting he has shown, but maybe this is just his year. Green can play around the infield, though his best position is second base, which has value on this team given Jose Lopez's struggles.
• C Jeff Clement (71/83) - Clement might be even more interesting to watch than Balentien in September. The former first-round pick is yet to make his major league debut, but after a slow start he really heated up. Thanks to his patience and power, he should see some pinch-hitting opportunities. Clement bats left-handed, but he absolutely crushed left-handed pitching. Hopefully McLaren realizes that he is much better against southpaws.
• LHP John Parrish (64) - When the Mariners traded for Parrish he had a 70 rating, but his rating has since dropped significantly despite very few innings pitched. He was supposed to be called up today, so I'm simply guessing that he will eventually be called up. Parrish should not be anything other than another mop-up man, but he is a better pitcher than he has shown in Seattle.

To make room on the 40-man roster for a number of these players, the following players had to be removed from it. They all are still part of the Mariners organization, but there is now a chance they could lose all of them (to put a complicated process way too simply):

• OF Mike Wilson (44/63) - Wilson got off to a horrible start, and though he had a much better second half, it still wasn't that impressive. He has great power, but struggles to make contact.
• INF Oswaldo Navarro (57/67) - Oswaldo looks like a light-hitting, decent-fielding shortstop at best. I don't know how he ever got on the 40-man roster to begin with.
• C Rene Rivera (41/59) - All I'll say is that I'm very glad the Mariners have Jamie Burke, because another year of watching Rene Rivera flail at the baseball like he's blindfolded was going to be painful. Rivera has inexplicably regressed as a hitter the last couple years to the point that he is not a viable option in the majors. How he stayed on the 40-man this long nobody will ever know.
• LHP Jake Woods (50) - After a pleasantly surprising season out of the bullpen last year, Woods has had a not-so-pleasantly surprising disaster of a season in Tacoma. Woods probably is not as good as he pitched in 2006, but also not as bad as he was this season. Still, given all the lefties the Mariners have on the roster, this was a logical move.

The Mariners September call-ups could actually be major difference-makers down the stretch. For the most part they won't be pitching or hitting in crucial situations, but they will allow McLaren to rest important contributors in non-crucial situations. It will allow important players to have days off that they otherwise would not get, especially in the bullpen. That will be especially valuable given how few days off the Mariners have the rest of the way.