2011 Arbitration Eligibles

2011 Mariners week continues with a look at the arbitration eligible players. Arbitration functions as a process to transition players from the league minimum salary to whatever their value is on the open free agent market. As such, all arbitration eligible players are a good value in theory.

There is a catch in most cases though. Often, players are out of minor league option years by the time they hit arbitration. So, offering arbitration to a player is often attached to a commitment to keeping the player on the team.

While there is the occasional budding star mixed in arbitration, the majority of these players are in the serviceable to solid range. In other words, the majority are supporting pieces on a roster. Since the majority of arbitration deals come at good value, the real question is if the piece is worth keeping or not.

Here are the decisions the 2011 roster has to make. Current salary is in parentheses:

Roster Moves Galore

There were roster moves made by the Mariners today that involved a grand total of seven players. The biggest are at the AAA level, which says all you need to know about the way this season is going. Nonetheless, here are brief looks at all the moves:

• Sean White demoted to AAA Tacoma - White hasn't been very good this year, to say the least. So he goes down to Tacoma where he won't be bad for Seattle until he's back.
• Chad Cordero became a free agent - The Mariners didn't release Cordero. They gave him the chance to go to AAA, but he elected for free agency. Chad has been nowhere close to his pre-injury self, which isn't surprising. He was a nice story, but a remarkably hittable reliever that got by mostly with guts and poise. I hope he catches on somewhere else, but I wouldn't be surprised if he didn't.
• Chris Seddon called up - Remember last year, when Jason Vargas was a fringy, soft-tossing left-hander? Chris Seddon is the new Jason Vargas, except with cooler hair. I think Seddon looks kind of like Tim Lincecum from the back, or maybe like a bizarro version of him, since Chris throws left-handed.
• Jamey Wright signed - Who can forget Wright's glorious spring training campaign with the M's back in 2003? Wright reminds me of Brett Tomko - always has had an intriguing arm, but the results have never been what was expected. He is the definition of a veteran journeyman at this point, and I think he is only here until Erik Bedard and/or Shawn Kelley are healthy anyway.
• Edward Paredes, Anthony Varvaro, and Dustin Ackley all promoted to AAA Tacoma - The most interesting move today is definitely the Ackley promotion. It seemed logical after the Cliff Lee deal, or more particularly, after the M's announced that Matt Lawson, from the Lee deal, was going to AA. Rumor on the twittersphere is that Ackley homered in his first AAA at-bat! Paredes and Varvaro are also prospects, but in the bullpen, so not the same sizzle as Mr. Ackley. I would still rate their promotions as more interesting than the MLB moves though, aside from perhaps Seddon.

Pretty soon I am going to put together a post diving into 2011 a little deeper, but it makes all the sense in the world to push some of the guys standing out in AA up into AAA for the second half of the year. The 2011 roster is deeper if the current AA group is able to step up and provide organizational depth, even if they figure to be more important pieces down the road. This organization is definitely shifting to more of an assessment mode.

More Minor Moves

First of all, upon further review, Edwin Encarnacion is not such a slam dunk to claim. He is making almost $5 million this year, and he certainly is not the type of player I would clear salary for. However, perhaps Toronto could be interested in swapping Ian Snell for him in what would technically be a minor league trade, but with MLB-sized salaries.

The transaction wire continues to percolate with small deals. Today word is breaking that the Astros have acquired Tommy Everidge from the Rainiers. I am not sure what Houston is planning to do with him, but they have him now. Anything besides a straight-up purchase of his contract would surprise me, so I do not expect anyone of interest to come back to the M's organization in the deal.

A couple more mildly interesting players were designated for assignment today. The first is former Mariner Greg Dobbs. His first couple years in Philadelphia he proved to be a quality bench player, but his hitting has slipped since then. It is easy to argue that no one can be sure if he really has slipped with the limited plate appearances he gets, but I am willing to trust the Phillies on this one. Dobbs will find a home somewhere, but he is replacement level talent at this point.

The other somewhat interesting guy placed on waivers today was Cla Meredith. He is a side-arming reliever that has bounced around considerably, but always seems to land on his feet. Despite a low K rate and slightly above average BABIP, his career ERA sits at 3.62, thanks mostly to a low home run rate. Projections seem to think that the home run rate is unsustainable, but I am not so certain. Meredith's windup is deceptive, and the home run rate has stayed below average through 286 career appearances. At just 27 years old, Cla should still have plenty left in the tank too.

If I am the Mariners, I would not put a claim on Dobbs, but I would think about Meredith. He is what he is at this point, a serviceable middle reliever, but the bullpen has made a habit of melting down recently. Also, Mark Lowe is gone for the season, so some added depth would be nice. Meredith, at the very least, is better than Sean White in my eyes. I wouldn't be considering him if we still had Kanekoa Texeira around, but I digress.

I wonder if baseball teams pay someone to sit by a fax machine all day and see who gets designated for assignment. I would sign up for that job. The last few days in particular have featured all sorts of guys who could legitimately fill out the end of a roster.

Disappointment #2

Kanekoa Texeira (Getty images)

I was disappointed when the Mariners fired Alan Cockrell, mostly because they made it clear they did it just because someone had to be the scapegoat. The organization seemed beyond such traditional, purely cosmetic moves.

I am disappointed again. The Mariners announced a pair of moves after last night's loss. Designated for assignment are Jesus Colome and Kanekoa Texeira. Up are Sean White and Garrett Olson.

First of all, I am happy to see Colome finally cut loose. I specifically mentioned that I would ditch him in my rant on the M's over the weekend. I also said I would let Wak call up whomever he wanted to take his place, and I figured that man would be Sean White.

So, White for Colome is a fine move in my book. I don't think it makes much of a difference, but Colome clearly was not an answer, short term or long term. He was a logical guy to make a change with, especially after such a wild outing in Anaheim.

Bringing up Garett Olson doesn't bother me much either. He was pitching fine in Tacoma's starting rotation, but shifted to the bullpen by the M's several weeks ago. As a reliever, he has looked quite good, albeit with a small sample size. Still, Olson has demonstrated better command and a better ability to miss bats in AAA than he did a year ago, and the team is yet to find a reliable left-handed reliever since Z and Wak have been in town (though they haven't exactly gone looking either).

What bothers me is DFAing Texeira. He is only 24 years old, and making the jump from AA to the major leagues. An adjustment period should have been expected. On top of that, he only got 16 appearances in the first two months of the season. Many established relievers would be inconsistent with such sparse work, so a youngster trying to make major adjustments on the fly is likely to have problems as well.

Sure enough, Kanekoa posted a 5.30 ERA out of the bullpen this year in his appearances. However, even that number is misleading. His FIP is 3.39, and BABIP a remarkably high .363. Both numbers suggest that Texeira should have more success moving forward, and that doesn't count any development that could occur as he matures and adjusts to major league hitters.

As a brief aside, Colome also projects to be better moving forward, but not as good as Texeira...and Colome is eight years older, and teams have been trying to improve his command for a decade now (with no success).

I doubt the Mariners just gave up on the next Robb Nen or Trevor Hoffman, but they never took the time to find out what they had with Texeira. To me, it is eerily reminiscent to what Bill Bavasi did with guys like Scott Podsednik and Greg Dobbs. Neither are stars, but the Mariners could have used them, and had to burn through resources to find replacements.

Kanekoa Texeira should have been in Colome's role all season. Based on what I saw, he was good enough to handle the mop-up role just fine. I wonder if this team would have cut him if he had been given the opportunities to pitch that should have been his in the first place.

Based on what I have seen, the Mariners are not good enough to justify giving up on a guy like Texeira, especially in a season like this. It wreaks of another short-sighted, mostly cosmetic fix. However, unlike firing the hitting coach, this move has a chance to come back and bite them.

2007 Fall and Winter League Spotlights

In the final post of this three-part series, I take a look at the fall and winter leagues. Major League Baseball may wrap up by the end of October, but that is when seasons begin in Arizona, Hawai'i, Mexico, the Dominican Republic, and Venezuela. A diverse set of players participate in these leagues, and a certain number shine. Though there are many others worth mentioning, here are 30 players whose performances are noteworthy. They are organized by league they played in, and a brief introduction to each league is included as well. The parentheses () next to a player's name includes the rating they have based on the stats they have accumulated in the league, followed by their rating according to their minor league numbers in the 2007 regular season.

Arizona Fall League

As you will notice, nearly half of the players highlighted in this post come from the Arizona Fall League (AFL). In essence, the AFL is like the Futures Game that takes place All-Star Weekend, except with more teams and for an entire month. With so much young talent on display, the AFL gets the most coverage of any post-season league. However, since it is only a month long, it is also possible for players to perform drastically above or below their capabilities. For the most part, I focused on the players who performed the absolute best, and even though many performed equally well in the AFL, they are not of equal talent.

RP Mitch Stetter (107, 77/89), Brewers - Stetter's ERA was mysteriously high in the minors, given his impressive numbers. However, he still got a quick look at the end of the season in the majors, and then Milwaukee sent him to the AFL, where he absolutely dominated. A 6'4" left-hander, Stetter definitely deserves to be in Milwaukee's bullpen next year. His numbers suggest he could be the 2008 version of Hideki Okajima (80).

OF Sam Fuld (106, 58/75), Cubs - Fuld was named the AFL MVP, as he should of been with the numbers he put up. With that being said, he played well over his head in the league, and still is not a real interesting prospect. He should start the year in AAA, but will likely get called up at some point in 2008.

RP Dewon Day (99, 66/77), White Sox - Chicago picked Day up in the minor league phase of the Rule 5 Draft a couple years ago, and have unearthed an interesting prospect. Day racks up a ton of strikeouts, but he also racks up a ton of walks. His numbers were much more impressive in the AFL because he cut down on his walks. My guess is that his Fall League performance was a bit of a fluke, but if he continues to show improved command in Spring Training, he may find himself on the opening day roster. Actually, even if his control is erratic he may still wind up on the team. His strikeout numbers are impressive enough to overcome his great weakness.

SP David Purcey (96, 61/78), Blue Jays - Toronto's pitching staff is quite strong, so there is not much of a path for Purcey to crack the majors. However, trading A.J. Burnett (82) may change that. Purcey is no blue-chip prospect, but he should be on the radar at this point.

RP Calvin Medlock (96, 64/81), Rays - Medlock started 2007 in the Cincinnati organization, but was one of the pitchers traded to Tampa Bay for 2B Jorge Cantu (66/77). Medlock is yet to make his Major League debut, but between the Rays atrocious bullpen last season and his success in the fall league, he is in good position to make the Rays opening day roster in 2008.

RP Fernando Hernandez (94, 60/82), White Sox - Fernando is still probably a year away from the majors, but he had a very good year in AA and followed that with a terrific AFL performance. He should be ticketed for AAA for sure in 2008, and may make the majors at some point during the year.

SP Jake Arrieta (93), Orioles - Arrieta was a draft choice this year and only played in the AFL. It will be interesting to see where Baltimore puts him next year, because I am guessing they sent him to the AFL just to give him some pro experience. I doubt they expected a performance quite this good. He did not even allow a run.

OF Brett Gardner (92, 63/81), Yankees - Trade rumors have circled around OF Melky Cabrera (76/86) and OF Hideki Matsui (84), and the team is less than thrilled with OF Johnny Damon's (79) 2007 performance, especially defensively. So, it seems potential outfield spots in the Bronx may be opening up in the next year or two. Gardner has great speed, and has also flashed good hitting ability. He may develop into a solid leadoff hitter, though he is still at least a year away from really pushing for a spot in the majors.

RP Brian Anderson (91, 52/73), Giants - San Francisco already has a pretty good pitching staff, so Anderson does not figure to get much of a look this year. However, his Fall League performance was good enough to merit consideration from other teams in trades which could net the Giants some much-needed younger position talent.

OF Nate Schierholtz (88, 74/87), Giants - The Giants are not completely devoid of young position talent. Nate Schierholtz had a great year in AAA, and he backed that up with a great AFL season. He should be ready to contribute in the major leagues now, though the Giants seem pretty set in the outfield with Randy Winn (80), Rajai Davis (79/85), Dave Roberts (70), and their big free agent signing, Aaron Rowand (84). I would look to trade Winn to a team needing a centerfielder (perhaps the Braves?) and get a couple decent prospects in return (perhaps SS/OF Brent Lillibridge (62/79) and someone else?). Maybe the Braves have no interest in Winn, but Schierholtz should be starting somewhere in the Giants outfield on opening day, and there is no spot for him right now.

OF Travis Snider (85, 46/80), Blue Jays - Really, at 19 years old after a season in A ball, Snider should still be a long way from the majors. However, his AFL performance is tantalizing. He did play in a pitcher-friendly league, and exploding in 2008 after this fall league performance is not out of the question. Snider probably played beyond his actual abilities right now, but he clearly was not outmatched despite being one of the youngest players in this league.

3B Evan Longoria (83, 63/85), Rays - Any hesitancy the Rays may have had handing the hot corner over to Longoria in 2008 seem to be squelched by his fall league performance. Only an injury could stop him from starting for the Rays on opening day at this point.

OF Matt LaPorta (81, 47/78), Brewers - The Brewers top pick in this year's draft (and #1 on my 25TW list) got a little pro experience after signing, and then got more of a look in the fall league. Camparing favorably to guys like Travis Snider and Evan Longoria in a month-long season is not enough to make LaPorta a great prospect himself, but it is a promising start.

3B Matt Tuiasosopo (77, 51/76), Mariners - Tuiasosopo failed miserably in the fall league last year, so while his performance was not spectacular, it was a huge leap forward. His best attribute is his plate discipline, and if he ever shows some power his stock will go up considerably.

Hawai'i Winter League

The Hawai'i Winter League is kind of like the AAA version of the AFL. Teams are only allowed to send a certain number of players to the AFL, and often if they have other younger players who they want to get an extended look at, they ship them to this league. The Hawai'i Winter League has only four teams, and interestingly a high number of Japanese players populate these rosters. Still, a few players from major league teams are worth taking a look at.

SP Blake Wood (90, 46/77), Royals - There were some Japanese pitchers that were better than Wood, but I am guessing they already have commitments to play in Japan. Wood was the best hurler from the states, which probably says more about the talent level of this league than it does about the Wood. He had a nice year in A ball, and a very nice season in Hawaii, but that is the general them with Wood. He is a nice-looking pitcher, but not a great-looking one, and his fantastic performance in Hawai'i does little to change that.

OF Michael Wilson (88, 45/67), Mariners - Wilson had enough of a breakout year in 2006 that the M's felt the need to protect him with a 40-man roster spot. However, if it is possible for a player to un-break-out, Wilson did that in 2007 by seemingly losing all hitting ability. The only thing that salvaged his rating was his tremendous power. Now, in Hawai'i, Wilsons seems to have re-emerged again. His raw power is about as good as it gets, but everything else about his game is checkered with question marks. Because I am not sold on the quality of competition in this league, I am not convinced Wilson has turned it around.

C Matt Wieters (79), Orioles - Wieters was easily the highest profile player in Hawaii, but his performance was not eye-popping. In fact, given that players like Wood and Wilson were significantly better, it is somewhat disappointing that Wieters did not make a stronger showing. However, this was his first taste of pro baseball after sitting around for over three months. Wieters likely had some rust to shake off.

Mexico Winter League

Mexico also has a full summer season, but in the winter some major league players migrate south to join the Mexican stars. Latin America and Japan get plenty of publicity for the baseball talent they produce, but Mexico should not be overlooked. Because this league features many veterans, the competition is much stiffer than in the AFL or Hawai'i. Also, the season is longer, so the performances are a bit more telling of a player's true abilities. Looking at this league, there are several Mexican players that I think are good enough to earn at least bullpen and bench roles in the majors, and I take the time to highlight one pitcher in particular. There were also some players who for sure will be looking to make MLB squads in 2008.

RP Adrian Ramirez (92) - A number of Mexican pitchers have made strong showings in this league, but I chose to highlight Ramirez in particular for a couple reasons. First, he is still young, as he turned 24 in October. Second, he is a left-handed reliever. Listed at 5'6" and 185 pounds, Ramirez is not exactly an imposing figure on the mound, but he obviously does something that makes him hard to hit in an underrated league. Some team should give this guy a look.

SP Dana Eveland (88, 75/88), Athletics - Acquired in the Dan Haren (86/89) mega-deal, Eveland is one of the newest A's, and should have a very good chance to make the A's starting rotation out of spring training. He was injured most of 2007, so my player rater uses his 2006 numbers to determine his rating. If Eveland's Mexico numbers are any indication, it appears he has recovered from his injury well, and should be more than ready to compete in spring training.

1B Jason Botts (84, 71/80), Rangers - Botts has received some fairly long looks in the majors the last couple years, and with 1B Mark Teixeira (87/90) gone figures to have a chance to stay in the majors for all of 2008. He certainly has not hurt his chances with his showing in Mexico this winter.

1B Brian Myrow (82, 78/83), Padres - Myrow has only received nominal looks in the majors the last couple years, in 2006 with Dodgers, and 2007 with the Padres. However, his minor league numbers suggest that he could be a real contributor if given the chance. At 31 years old he is not exactly a prospect at this point, but he is good enough to be on a major league team. Myrow has not shown much power in Mexico, but his .464 on-base percentage is sensational. At worst, he should be a good left-handed pinch-hitter.

Dominican Winter League

The Dominican Republic is a great baseball country, but the winter league is strengthened by the number of players shipped to it by MLB teams for further development. Often, these players are making some major transition, such as from starter to reliever, or from bench player to everyday starter. Also, some players looking for one more chance in the big leagues will perform here, hoping to catch the eye of some MLB team.

RP Julio Manon (92, 73), Athletics - At 34 years old, Manon is a player who is not a prospect, but he also has not logged much time in the majors. He did appear in 23 games for the Expos in 2003, and 22 games for the Orioles in 2006, but his cumulative major league numbers are not that impressive (4.66 ERA, 1.70 WHIP). Manon is not on the A's 40-man roster, so his affiliation with the organization is loose at best. The bottom line is that some team with thin relief pitching (Orioles, Rays, et al.) should give Manon a try.

RP Oneli Perez (91, 62/82), White Sox - Chicago had a couple young relievers light up the AFL, but this young reliever should not be overlooked. He posted great numbers in AA, and figures to be in AAA to start 2008, with a pretty good chance to see some action in the majors before the season over.

OF Vince Sinisi (90, 70/81), Padres - I have read some rumors that the Padres are interested in trading for OF/1B Xavier Nady (76/78) to serve as their top bench player, getting spot starts in the outfield and first base. While I am a fan of Nady, I think Sinisi is an in-house option the team should seriously consider. He had a solid year in AAA that suggests he is a good bench option, and he has backed it up with a huge winter league. Between Sinisi and Brian Myrow (refer to the Mexico League section for more on him), I think the Padres bench is in solid shape as is.

RP Francisco Cruceta (90, 73/85), Rangers - Faithful Rainiers fans may remember Cruceta from 2006, when he led the PCL in strikeouts while pitching for Tacoma, earning a fleeting glance in the majors with the Mariners. The Rangers picked him up off waivers last offseason and he pitched in Oklahoma the entire year, eventually getting switched to the bullpen. He has pitched exclusively out of the bullpen in the Dominican and looked very good. Texas would be wise to give Cruceta a very long look in Spring Training, because he is good enough to contribute to their bullpen.

SS Erick Aybar (74, 62/77), Angels - There is not much about Aybar's offensive game worth getting excited about, which is precisely why I am taking the time to point him out. Aybar, according to Angels manager Mike Scioscia, will get the first chance to replace SS Orlando Cabrera (79). Simply put, he will be a huge offensive downgrade. The Angels would be much wiser to give INF Maicer Izturis (79/83) the starting job, even despite the injury concerns.

Venezuela Winter League

Venezuela's winter league is quite similar to the Dominican Republic's winter league. Even though I do not think there is much of a difference in the talent level between the two leagues, I would send prospects to the Dominican if I were a major league team because of the ongoing political unrest in Venezuela (several years ago the M's pulled Gil Meche out of this league because the political tension was so high). Still, there are players in this league fighting for roster spots that have made strong showings.

RP Francisco Butto (92) - Butto has never appeared in the majors, but was with the Yankees in 2006 and made it as high as AAA. A native Venezualan, he played in the Mexican summer league this past season, where he had a 3.27 ERA with 51 strikeouts in 44 innings pitched. Running his 2006 numbers through my player rater yielded a 56 rating, with a peak of 75. Though I doubt Butto has suddenly transformed into an incredible pitcher, his performance is noteworthy, and considering he is only 27 years old it looks to me like he has developed into a potential middle reliever.

SP Sean White (87, 65/72), Mariners - Most that are paying attention to M's in the winter leagues have focused on Brandon Morrow (75/86) and Ryan Rowland-Smith (73/84) as they have been stretched out to prepare for potential starting rotation spots. However, under the radar, Sean White has also been stretched out, and his WHIP is comfortably under 1.00 for the winter league season. White's already slim chances to make the M's starting staff effectively went to zero with the signing of Carlos Silva (75), but if he does not make the team as a reliever he has shown enough to merit regular starts in AAA.

INF Edgardo Alfonzo (86) - At 34 years old, Edgardo Alfonzo's best days are well behind him. However, in his prime, he was a pretty good player, and it looks like he still has a little something to offer. If the Mariners are serious about bringing someone in to compete with 2B Jose Lopez (68/81) for the starting job, they should give Alfonzo a look. They likely would only need to give him a minor league contract with an invitation to spring training, so there would be no risk at all. I do not think Alfonzo is as good as Lopez, or maybe even the recently acquired Tug Hullett (66/78) at this point, but I think Lopez would perceive Alfonzo as a legitimate threat. A veteran like him could push Lopez to start realizing his potential, and he is the ideal option because he would not require a guaranteed major league contract.

2B Jose Castillo (86, 62/70), Marlins - Castillo was with the Pirates in 2007, and as his rating suggests, did not perform real well (even the Pirates let him go, enough said). He took a step backwards in 2007, but at 26 years old he could still take a couple steps forward. Florida is considering moving Castillo to third base, but they also are toying with the idea of switching 2B Dan Uggla (76/80) to third and keeping Castillo at second, since he is considered the superior defender between the two. Personally, I would stick the better of the two defenders at third base, because it is a more demanding defensive position. That decision is made even easier because Uggla is the incumbent at second. Ultimately, Castillo will not be in the lineup at all if he hits as poorly as he did in 2007. However, looking at his career numbers and strong showing in winter ball, he appears to be poised for a bit of a rebound.

These are only 30 of the hundreds of baseball players performing in these leagues. If history is any guide, huge performances in these leagues lead to better opportunities in spring training, which leads to major league opportunities and success for a couple players each year. The dynamic of watching older guys trying to squeeze one last chance competing against young guys just getting their feet wet as a professional adds a certain character to the winter leagues that even AAA does not have. The collision of prospects at all levels in the AFL is special to that league as well. Every league has at least a couple diamonds in the rough; the only question is if teams find them and give them a chance. They may not be stars, but a quality pinch-hitter or middle reliever is worth something.

Quick Look at September Call-Ups

With September comes expanded rosters, and the Mariners plan to take advantage of it. Yesterday, they announced that they planned to call up a total of 10 players. Five of them are part of the ballclub now, and four more will join it when the AAA season ends on Tuesday (John Parrish was supposed to be called up today but wasn't, so it is unclear what the Mariners are planning to do with him now). Here is a quick look at the players the Mariners are adding, and the impact of the moves:

CALLED UP TODAY

• UT Mike Morse (69) - Morse had a knee injury that kept him out for a couple months, but he when healthy he was productive. For as big of a man as he is, he still hasn't flashed much power, though he has shown the ability to hit for average both in AAA and the major leagues. Ultimately, Morse's greatest value to the team is his defensive versatility, and he'll likely see a few at-bats as a right-handed pinch-hitter.
• OF Charlton Jimerson (56) - With 25 home runs and 35 steals in the minors this year, Jimerson possesses a nice power/speed combo. However, his power is wiped out by an obscene number of strikeouts - 139 in 387 at-bats to be exact. He'll be the designated pinch-runner, a role that he should thrive in.
• C Rob Johnson (62/73) - The Mariners have long been high on Johnson, and though he likely won't play much he should make his major league debut sometime in the next month. Johnson's strength is his defense, and his hitting has developed some. Still, he will be the third-string catcher, so he will see little playing time.
• LHP Ryan Feierabend (59/67) - Since struggling mightily in the majors, Ryan has settled down and ended up having a solid year in Tacoma. Still, he's not ready for a pivotal role on this team. He should take over mop-up duty in any potential blow-outs down the stretch, freeing up Ryan Rowland-Smith for more important innings.
• RHP Sean White (68) - The Rule Five draft pick is back, and he is the biggest addition of the guys called up today. White will join Feierabend as a mop-up man, though he is a better pitcher than Ryan right now. The two of them should ease concerns of burning out the bullpen.

GETTING CALLED UP TUESDAY

• OF Jeremy Reed (68) - To a certain extent Reed has re-discovered the stroke that once made him a top prospect. He should be a good left-handed pinch-hitting option off the bench. McLaren may also use him as a defensive replacement as well, but that would be a mistake if he picks Reed over Adam Jones in any situation.
• OF Wladimir Balentien (71/83) - It will be interesting to see what the Mariners do with Balentien once he is called up. Wladimir is yet to make his major league debut, but he is the best player the M's are calling up. Balentien's greatest strength is a powerful bat, though he also has underrated speed. He has started to tap into his power potential thanks to remarkably improved plate discipline the last couple years. The odds are Wladimir will get very little playing time, though he should share pinch-hitting duties with fellow call-ups Mike Morse and Jeremy Reed.
• INF Nick Green (69) - Green has been tearing the cover off the ball ever since joining the Rainiers. Nothing about the rest of his career says he can maintain the type of hitting he has shown, but maybe this is just his year. Green can play around the infield, though his best position is second base, which has value on this team given Jose Lopez's struggles.
• C Jeff Clement (71/83) - Clement might be even more interesting to watch than Balentien in September. The former first-round pick is yet to make his major league debut, but after a slow start he really heated up. Thanks to his patience and power, he should see some pinch-hitting opportunities. Clement bats left-handed, but he absolutely crushed left-handed pitching. Hopefully McLaren realizes that he is much better against southpaws.
• LHP John Parrish (64) - When the Mariners traded for Parrish he had a 70 rating, but his rating has since dropped significantly despite very few innings pitched. He was supposed to be called up today, so I'm simply guessing that he will eventually be called up. Parrish should not be anything other than another mop-up man, but he is a better pitcher than he has shown in Seattle.

To make room on the 40-man roster for a number of these players, the following players had to be removed from it. They all are still part of the Mariners organization, but there is now a chance they could lose all of them (to put a complicated process way too simply):

• OF Mike Wilson (44/63) - Wilson got off to a horrible start, and though he had a much better second half, it still wasn't that impressive. He has great power, but struggles to make contact.
• INF Oswaldo Navarro (57/67) - Oswaldo looks like a light-hitting, decent-fielding shortstop at best. I don't know how he ever got on the 40-man roster to begin with.
• C Rene Rivera (41/59) - All I'll say is that I'm very glad the Mariners have Jamie Burke, because another year of watching Rene Rivera flail at the baseball like he's blindfolded was going to be painful. Rivera has inexplicably regressed as a hitter the last couple years to the point that he is not a viable option in the majors. How he stayed on the 40-man this long nobody will ever know.
• LHP Jake Woods (50) - After a pleasantly surprising season out of the bullpen last year, Woods has had a not-so-pleasantly surprising disaster of a season in Tacoma. Woods probably is not as good as he pitched in 2006, but also not as bad as he was this season. Still, given all the lefties the Mariners have on the roster, this was a logical move.

The Mariners September call-ups could actually be major difference-makers down the stretch. For the most part they won't be pitching or hitting in crucial situations, but they will allow McLaren to rest important contributors in non-crucial situations. It will allow important players to have days off that they otherwise would not get, especially in the bullpen. That will be especially valuable given how few days off the Mariners have the rest of the way.

M's Roster Taking Shape

Today the Mariners announced that they had re-assigned one player to minor league camp (RHP Aaron Small), and sent four others to AAA Tacoma (RHP Sean Green, LHP Eric O'Flaherty, C Rene Rivera, OF Jeremy Reed). Though the Mariners had made several cuts before today's round, no one was cut before today that was thought to have a shot at making the ballclub. Especially with the four optioned to AAA out of the picture, the opening day roster has begun to take shape. As of now, the Mariners have 33 players in camp and must be down to 25 in a matter of days. Here is who is still left (* = a player not on the 40-man roster):


POSITION PLAYERS
Kenji Johjima (C)
Jamie Burke (C)*
Richie Sexson (1B)
Ben Broussard (1B/LF/RF)
Jose Lopez (2B)
Jose Vidro (2B/DH)
Yuniesky Betancourt (SS)
Gookie Dawkins (SS/3B)*
Rey Ordonez (SS)*
Adrian Beltre (3B)
Raul Ibanez (LF)
Ichiro (CF)
Adam Jones (CF)
Jose Guillen (RF)
Willie Bloomquist (IF/OF)
Mike Morse (IF/OF)


PITCHING STAFF
Felix Hernandez (RHP)
Jarrod Washburn (LHP)
Miguel Batista (RHP)
Horacio Ramirez (LHP)
Jeff Weaver (RHP)
Cesar Jimenez (LHP)
Arthur Rhodes (LHP)*
George Sherrill (LHP)
Jake Woods (LHP)
Jon Huber (RHP)
Justin Lehr (RHP)*
Mark Lowe (RHP)
Julio Mateo (RHP)
Brandon Morrow (RHP)*
J.J. Putz (RHP)
Chris Reitsma (RHP)
Sean White (RHP)


With Rene Rivera being sent down today the Mariners have only two catchers remaining in camp, which means Kenji Johjima (of course) and more surprisingly Jamie Burke will be on the ballclub by process of elimination. Sexson, Lopez, Betancourt, Beltre, Vidro, Ibanez, Ichiro, and Guillen are all locked in as starters on the club, and Willie Bloomquist was a shoo-in as a reserve at the start of the spring, but he has removed any doubt with his performance as well. So, that is a total of 11 position players with spot on the squad, and since it looks like the M's are going to carry 12 pitchers, 2 vacant reserve positions remain. Since the Mariners would probably like one of these guys to bat left-handed, Ben Broussard has likely made the ballclub because he is the only left-handed hitter among those that are not already on the ballclub. Between him and Willie Bloomquist, the Mariners have all the defensive positions covered, so they have the luxury of selecting the best player out of the pool remaining. If I were them, I would go with Mike Morse because he has the best bat of everyone left, the most versatility of anyone left, and he also is already on the 40-man roster.


Now on to the pitching staff. Hernandez, Washburn, Batista, Ramirez, and Weaver are the starting five for sure. However, the bullpen is very much up for grabs. Jake Woods figures to return to the long-relief role he filled so well last year, Chris Reitsma will be the set-up man, and Dudley-favorite Julio Mateo is sure to pitch in some crucial inning when better options are available (though I should say Mateo has looked good this spring, and I anticipate a good year from him). J.J. Putz would be a lock to make the team as well, but the Mariners may opt to put him on the DL to start the year if he is hurt bad enough. I think they won't though, so I will lightly pencil him in on the opening day roster. So, 9 of the 12 pitching spots are taken, leaving 3 to be decided between 8 hurlers. Mark Lowe can be eliminated because he is still hurt, so really there are only seven competing. Arthur Rhodes and George Sherrill should be on the club, because Hargrove really wants three lefties, especially since one (Woods) fills the long-relief role. That leaves only one position up for grabs among Jon Huber, Justin Lehr, Brandon Morrow, and Sean White. Of this quartet, Lehr has probably been the most unimpressive (though Huber is right there with him), and he is also a non-roster invitee. So, his chances of making the Mariners are slim to none.


That leaves Huber, Morrow, and White. Huber was impressive in his September call-up last year, but he has been roughed up a couple times this spring. Brandon Morrow has been dominant, and he's got the best stuff of this trio. However, he has virtually no professional experience and he's also not on the 40-man roster. As for Sean White, he has also looked good this spring and if the Mariners don't keep him they will have to return him to the Braves, since he was a Rule 5 draft pick. The last bullpen spot is easily the toughest decision the Mariners have to make, but if I were making the call I would go with Sean White, because he and Huber are relative equal in my eyes but Huber can be sent down; and also because I would prefer to see Brandon Morrow develop as a starter in the minors (plus adding Morrow would kick another guy off the 40-man roster).


So, here is who I think the 2007 Mariners will be:


STARTING LINEUP
Kenji Johjima, C
Richie Sexson, 1B
Jose Lopez, 2B
Yuniesky Betancourt, SS
Adrian Beltre, 3B
Raul Ibanez, LF
Ichiro, CF
Jose Guillen, RF
Jose Vidro, DH


BENCH
Willie Bloomquist
Ben Broussard
Mike Morse
Jamie Burke


STARTING ROTATION
Felix Hernandez
Jarrod Washburn
Miguel Batista
Horacio Ramirez
Jeff Weaver


BULLPEN
Jake Woods, Long Relief
Sean White, Long Relief
Julio Mateo, Middle Relief
George Sherrill, Specialty Lefty
Arthur Rhodes, Left-Handed Set-Up
Chris Reitsma, Right-Handed/Primary Set-Up
J.J. Putz, Closer


In this scenario, two non-roster invitees make the squad, so two players must be removed from the 4o-man roster. To open up one spot I would put Mark Lowe on the 60-day DL, and for the last one I would designate Sean Green for assignment. If J.J. Putz starts the year on the DL, I would call up Jon Huber, but my feeling is that the Mariners will choose Morrow instead. If Morrow is added to the roster, my guess is Travis Blackley is designated for assignment. I've often criticize Bavasi and Dudley for how they have handled the roster, but so far I like what I see. I'm scared they are going to kill Morrow's future (though I think he would be a solid reliever), but I'm even more scared they are going to keep either Rey Ordonez or Gookie Dawkins around. The M's are due for a brain freeze at some point this spring.