Mariners Done Or Waiting?

It is hard to tell what the Mariners are up to right now. It is always somewhat hard to tell with how quickly and quietly the front office moves. We know for sure there is action behind the scenes; they have proven that time and time again. What exactly is going on right now though?

The Mariners could be done for the time being. Jack Zduriencik has made it abundantly clear that nobody in the media knows the M's budget constraints. Estimates range from virtually nothing left to around $10 million. Still, no matter what the number is, it seems safe to say that there is relatively little left to spend.

Personally, I would be fine taking the current team to spring training. The Mariners hardly sat on their hands this off-season. The 2010 M's aren't going to look like the 2009 version. Some friendly faces are gone, but some shiny new parts have been added. It isn't a perfect team, but nobody is in the AL West. I like this roster's chance to be in the hunt around the trading deadline, when new options will be available.

However, the Mariners could also be playing a waiting game right now. The free agent market is still saturated with a fair amount of solid talent. The landing places for the players still out there have dwindled too. It all adds up to some of them being left out in the dark.

For instance, look at Jarrod Washburn. Where will he land? The Brewers were a logical landing place until they signed Doug Davis. I am pretty sure Jarrod's top choice at this point would be Seattle. That's not a choice that excited me at the start of the off-season, but what if he could be had for around $2 million?

The same can be said for Orlando Hudson, Felipe Lopez, Erik Bedard, Jermaine Dye, John Smoltz, Rocco Baldelli, and Pedro Martinez (in no particular order). Throw Johnny Damon in the group too, now that the Yankees are out of the running (though Oakland seems legitimately interested in him).

I don't see the Mariners making any moves the next few weeks, though I have to admit that goes against pretty much everything we've seen out of the Jack Z front office. He always has something up his sleeve. Maybe I would be a little more proactive about adding a starting pitcher, but for the most part, I would wait out the market right now. The M's have flaws, but not enough to cripple the season. They can afford to wait, play the percentages, and maybe net a decent addition for a bargain price.

2009 Offseason Plan (v2.0)

The time has come for a revised off-season plan. You can check out my first here. It came before the M's had made any moves. Obviously, much has changed between then and now, most notably the stunning deals for Cliff Lee and Milton Bradley. Here is what I'd be doing now, in order of priority:

1. One more bat - I think packaging Brandon Morrow and Jose Lopez could bring in a quality hitter. I'd have to figure out who, but that is who I would offer. That would leave a hole at second base, but that can be filled in free agency by a guy like Kelly Johnson, Orlando Hudson, or Felipe Lopez. One alternative to this I would look at is signing Jason Bay. I would offer 3 years, $30 million or so with a vesting option for a 4th year, and if that's enough, I'd be happy to have him. That clearly would not have been at the start of the off-season, but the climate has changed. If Bay really wants to be a Mariner, that might be enough. We could at least find out. If neither a trade nor Bay pan out, I'd secure Russell Branyan.
2. One more dependable starter - The M's are more then set at the top with Felix Hernandez and Cliff Lee. What would be ideal is to find another dependable guy to go with Ryan Rowland-Smith. Someone who will throw a solid six innings on a consistent basis. If you are looking for an intriguing free agent name, there is Randy Johnson. More realistic free agent targets are Jarrod Washburn, Jon Garland, Doug Davis, and Joel Pineiro. Of the bunch, I probably like Garland best, though the price for Washburn might be right. I am not sure there is a logical guy to trade for out there.
3. Sign Felix Hernandez to a long-term deal - The King likes Seattle right now, and he should only like it even more with the way the off-season has gone. Also, he won't earn as much money in arbitration as he would in a contract extension, and all of a sudden that couple million saved might be worth placing towards a different piece of the puzzle. The M's look like an 85-88 win team on paper right now. Another four victories or so, and they go from probably on the outside of the playoffs to probably in. In other words, the Mariners are right in the vicinity where spending money even on rather small improvements is well worth it. That was not the case at the start of the off-season. Felix can wait at least until possible free-agent fits are no longer available. Still, the fact remains that Felix is an integral part of this team's long-term future.
4. Sign some catchers to minor league deals - They already have Eliezer Alfonzo, but I want more. Sign as many as possible, and keep the best ones.  That's how I prefer to use the minor league free agent process.

The best-case scenario is a trade that brings in a cost-effective player. However, there are free agents out there that make the 2010 Mariners a playoff contender, especially if the Angels continue to get shut out of major aquisitions.

Looking at the free agent options I suggested in this plan, it may take $15-$20 million to secure all the pieces. That is probably more than the M's have to play with. I would be interested to see if ownership is willing to go over payroll. I would push for that with this team, because they are at a point where one player might be the difference between going to the playoffs or not. That, by itself, is remarkable, especially given where this team was about 15 months ago.

UPDATE (9:14 PM) - The plan is already blown. Looks like Brandon Morrow is going to Toronto for Brandon League and a prospect. Interested to hear details, but clearly he is no centerpiece of a deal for a hitter.

UPDATE (9:28 PM) - As of now, it's looking like the prospect is C J.P. Arencibia. There goes my idea of adding minor league catchers too. I should stop trying to make up off-season plans. This deal, whoever is involved, is post-worthy.

Washburn To Tigers

After lots of speculation, Jarrod Washburn is indeed gone. He is going to the Detroit Tigers for pitchers Luke French and Mauricio Robles. Detroit was not a place that ever popped up in Washburn rumors, so the move is a bit surprising. The Yankees in particular have to be disappointed. Let's take a closer look at the deal.

We all know about Jarrod Washburn. He found a new way to throw the two-seamer and it practically changed the course of Mariners history. He has been fantastic with the new weapon, and a new defense behind him. It's all added up to a perfect storm that has resulted in the best year of Washburn's career. He will team with Edwin Jackson and Justin Verlander to make a formidable front three in the Tigers rotation. It may help them separate a little in the AL Central, and certainly helps their chances in the playoffs. Additionally, Washburn's fly ball tendency will play even better in Comerica than it did in Safeco.

Mauricio Robles is a young left-hander in advanced A ball right now. Just 21 years old, he is on the rise. Robles has struck out 111 batters in just 91.1 innings in the minors this year, which is way up from last year. Furthermore, his ground out to air out rate has doubled, though it is still only around 0.9. These are all positive signs though, especially since he has improved so much while also jumping levels.

Luke French pitched against the Mariners when they traveled to Detroit. He will turn 24 in about a month, so he is also young. French seemed to find something this year, because his strikeout rate has also gone up considerably this year despite jumping a level. He also has been somewhat effective in 29.1 innings with the Tigers this year. French seems to be cut out of the Garrett Olson/Jason Vargas/Jarrod Washburn pre-2009 mold. He looks like a number four or five starter waiting to happen.

Initial reaction in the cyberworld to this deal seems to be "that's it?" I felt the same way to a certain extent, but do not after thinking about the deal a little. Only Jack Z will know the other offers on the table. However, if the Yankees weren't willing to talk about guys like Joba, Phil Hughes, or Jesus Montero, I doubt they had better prospects to offer than these two. Also, Washburn is a free agent in two months. He is a rent-a-player. That suppresses his value.

Jarrod looks like he will be a Type B free agent at this point, meaning the Mariners would have received a compensatory draft pick after the second round if they held on to him the rest of the year and then lost him in free agency. In my eyes, Seattle acquired two pitchers talented enough to warrant selecting at that point in an amateur draft. With the Mariners out of contention at this point, this is a good deal. Additionally, people worried about the organizational pitching depth after the Wilson-Snell trade should feel better now. We got one back with Robles.

I doubt Z is done for the day. He certainly will keep talking to other teams. At the very least Roy Corcoran needs to go somewhere. It would not surprise me if another bullpen piece went somewhere either. Sean White might make sense. I do think the Mariners are done making big deals though.

UPDATE (12:11 PDT) - Both U.S.S. Mariner and Lookout Landing love the Washburn deal, so initial bum reactions (mostly based on sporadic tweets) are going to change. I still wonder how the M's clubhouse will react, but before today most players seemed to think a Washburn deal was quite possible. It should not shock them.

Trade Deadline Looms

A legitimate heat wave is sweeping the northwest, and my computer doesn't do well once it gets above about 70 degrees. With 90-100 degree heat for days on end, updating the musings has proven difficult, and will likely stay that way through the trade deadline. However, too much is going on to stay completely silent. This year's trade deadline is shaping up to be a pretty decent one. First of all, a recap of some deals over the past couple days:

• The Rockies acquired Rafael Betancourt from the Indians for minor leaguer Connor Graham. Colorado gets needed help in the bullpen. Cleveland gets a young starter that is sneaky good. Somehow Graham keeps the ball in the yard in the California league. Decent deal for both sides, but I'd say Cleveland got the better end of it.
• The Giants acquired Ryan Garko from the Indians for minor leaguer Scott Barnes. The Giants acquired some offense, which they desperately needed. Garko is relatively young, so he could be more than a short-term answer. As for Cleveland, they got a promising young pitching prospect. Barnes has an ERA under 3.00 in the California League, which is remarkable. He's a bit of a fly ball pitcher, but clearly hitters struggle to square up his pitches. Barnes is also a lefty, only increasing his value. This is definitely a trade that helps both teams. The Giants have pitching galore, but need offense. The Indians are okay on offense, but really need young pitchers. Both teams win in what looks like a very fair deal on paper.
• The Red Sox acquired Brian Anderson from the White Sox for Mark Kotsay. Kotsay was designated for assignment by Boston, so the trade is not shocking. Anderson is in some ways a younger version of Kotsay, though Kotsay in his prime was a superior hitter and defender. Still, Boston turned a non-asset at this point into a player with a similar skillset they can control for a few years. Anderson didn't fit in with Chicago at this point, and I'm not sure how Kotsay will fit any better. In the end, it's probably a next-to-meaningless deal, but I'd give a slight advantage to Boston.

At this point, what's way more interesting are the potential deals. Here are my bold predictions, based mostly on my gut and a little bit on rumors. I have no inside information at all, but I enjoy intrepid guesses as much as anyone:

• Victor Martinez is not going to be traded. It sounds to me like Cleveland's ownership loves him too much. He's not that expensive for how valuable he is either. With Ryan Garko traded, Cleveland can play Victor at first base more if they really want to give Carlos Santana a chance to play in the majors. Travis Hafner is starting to look old in the DH spot too. The bottom line is that Santana and Martinez can co-exist on Cleveland's roster, so clearing room for Carlos is not an issue.
• Roy Halladay is not going to be traded. Toronto GM J.P. Ricciardi has really botched this deal in my opinion. He said way too much in the media, though Halladay is a remarkable professional and did not let it impact his performance. Additionally, if some of the rumored deals nixed are true, I think Toronto's asking price has been too low. Still, with a low asking price, they can't get something done. I don't see a team trading the farm for Roy at this point, given how expensive he is, and that he is only signed through 2010.
• Cliff Lee is going to be traded to the Rays. I doubt Tampa Bay ever seriously entered the Roy Halladay sweepstakes, given how expensive he is. There are a few too many whispers about the Rays trying to make a big splash for them to not be looking to make a deal though. I'd put my money on Lee. He is much more affordable than Halladay for the next few years, and he complements the power arms that Tampa Bay has quite nicely. My guess is that Lee lands in Tampa Bay as part of a three-way deal that sends Kazmir to the third team involved, and both Tampa and the third team sends prospects to the Indians.
• Jarrod Washburn is going to be traded to the Phillies. At this point, Philadelphia has to have some pressure to acquire a starting pitcher. They've aggressively pursued Roy Halladay, but that deal is falling through. They will (or perhaps already have) turned their attention to Cliff Lee, but I like my darkhorse Rays to nab him. That leaves the Phillies scrambling with only a few days to go to get a legitimate starting pitcher. Since they've already convinced themselves they can part with some good prospects to get a good pitcher to help them now, I think a deal between the M's and Phillies could happen quickly. Surely shortstop Jason Donald would look interesting to Jack Z. Throw in a guy like Carlos Carrasco too and that might be enough, unless a bidding war over Washburn happens between all the teams that lost out on Halladay and Lee.
• Freddy Sanchez is going to the Giants. It makes way too much sense to not happen. I don't know who San Francisco will give up, but it will happen.
• Jack Wilson will not be traded. His expiring contract is not as big of a problem as Sanchez's vesting option, so I think Pittsburgh will focus on dealing Freddy. The Pirates will run out of time to put together a deal they like to ship Wilson away.
• The Twins will acquire Orlando Cabrera. Talks have heated up, and he seems quite expendable by the A's at this point. A deal is not imminent, but the two sides are talking, and will meet in the middle by July 31.
• The Brewers will acquire Justin Duchscherer. They don't want to mortgage much of their future, and Justin should come cheap since he has been injured. He'll certainly come cheaper than Halladay or Lee, or even Jarrod Washburn at this point.
• Adrian Gonzalez isn't going anywhere, but Heath Bell is. Too many teams want relievers, and San Diego has too many holes. My sleeper team to get Bell is the Angels. They seem determined to make a deal, and while they'd like a starting pitcher, I'm sure they would like the idea of Bell and Fuentes nailing down the end of ballgames. They could offer someone like Sean Rodriguez to San Diego, or maybe even Jose Arredando. That's purely speculation though.

The deadline should be fun. I think there will be significant movement, regardless of what happens with bigger guys like Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee. Too many teams in contention have glaring holes that they can patch with trades. I'm looking forward to seeing what deals actually happen, and if any of my "educated" random guesses come to fruition.

A Dramatic Comeback Bigger Than Most

I usually like to look ahead and stay focused on the big picture on the blog, but every now and then a game comes along that deserves a recap. This is one of those games. It was almost one of those games before the eighth inning, and definitely one of those after it.

The Mariners came into tonight a beat up team, more emotionally than physically. Rob Johnson and Russell Branyan were both back after attending funerals, but it is not as if the grieving process is completely over now that they are back. On top of that, the bullpen got taxed pretty badly yesterday as the team continues to stretch out Brandon Morrow, so it was up to Jarrod Washburn to pitch deep into tonight's ballgame, with a back that has been giving him problems lately. One look at the starting lineup gave a sense of how the team is faring right now. The last four hitters combined have hit a total of three home runs this season.

The game got frustrating quickly. The Mariners were getting hits off Jon Garland, but stranded runners all over the bases. Jarrod Washburn started to get squeezed a bit with the strike zone, and then got a really bad break with the Stephen Drew bunt. Drew was on the grass for a few steps, which is clearly inside the baseline. Not surprisingly, Washburn hit him with the throw to first, allowing a run to score without any out being recorded. Drew should have been called out, and the runners should not have advanced. That changed the whole complexion of the inning, allowed a couple runs to score, and ran up Washburn's pitch count on a night the M's needed him to work deep into the ballgame. Meanwhile, the offense continued to strand runners. It was a frustrating game.

Frustration gave way to despair in the fifth inning on a soft fly ball to short left field. It was in no man's land, and both Yuniesky Betancourt and Endy Chavez charged after it full speed. Betancourt caught it, but in the process uprooted Chavez, who went down hard, and immediately was writhing in obvious pain. It was an ugly collision that halted the game for several minutes. Endy was ultimately carted off the field, a very rare sight in baseball. The moment was sobering, and made the frustration of the game sink into an even worse feeling. With how the game was going, and how that past few weeks have gone off the field for this team, this felt like the latest blow. If there was ever a game to mail in, this was it.

Washburn had other plans though. He settled into a nice groove, and made it through seven innings. He has been criticized many times for his inability to pitch deep into ballgames as a Mariner, but he deserves credit tonight. Considering his back was not feeling completely healthy, and the bad non-call on the bunt early on, Washburn hung in the game valiantly. He deserves credit for stepping up and delivering a quality start in the face of adversity, frustration, and watching a teammate getting carted off the field. Washburn sent the message that this game was not over.

Then came the eighth inning. The Mariners still had not scored. Russell Branyan scorched a missile into the right field seats to finally get the Mariners on the board. Adrian Beltre got on base, bringing the tying run to the plate. With two outs, Wladimir Balentien was slated to come to the plate, but Don Wakamatsu decided to pinch-hit with Ken Griffey Jr. Safeco Field came to life with a standing ovation, as thousands of fans in the ballpark and across the Pacific Northwest got the same magical vision in their head, dreaming, "what if..."

Tony Pena set, and delivered his high-octane gas. Ken Griffey Jr., the aging, 30-something slugger that has lost more than a step or two, and sat on the bench the entire game through unseasonably cold weather, had the odds stacked against him. The odds should have been stacked against him at least. However, Griffey wasted no time and attacked the heater with that sweet black bat of his, and even sweeter swing.

The click.

The drop of the bat.

The gaze.

The deficit was erased. Ken Griffey Jr., the aging, 30-something slugger, is still Ken Griffey Jr.

The game was far from over though. The inning was far from over for that matter. Chris Woodward reached base for the second time on the night via a grounder that was just a tad too far to Stephen Drew's right. That set the stage for Rob Johnson, fresh off the bereavement list after attending the funeral for his mother-in-law, who unexpectedly lost her life in a car accident. Not known for his hitting anyway, Johnson found a way to turn on a Tony Pena fireball too, and laced it down the left field line. It kicked away from Eric Byrnes, easily allowing Woodward to score, and with a headfirst dive Johnson made it all the way into third base with his first triple of the season. It might be the sharpest Johnson has hit a ball all year. The Mariners, a team frustrated, battered, and bruised in about every way imaginable, dug down somewhere deep and pulled out some magic. An inspired David Aardsma came out of the bullpen, and shut the door emphatically, striking out the side with pure heat.

The Mariners came into the game a team that could use some good news. The road trip was not all that bad on the field, but spirits had to be down with the personal problems mounting. Throw on top of that injuries, especially the one to Chavez in the middle of tonight's game, and it all seemed unfair. In the end, this team made their own breaks tonight, and gutted out a magical victory that they can feel great about.

It is dangerous to put lots of stock in one game, especially in baseball, but tonight's game was bigger than most. This clubhouse needed something to go right after all the things that have unexpectedly gone wrong the past couple weeks. It was not to the point where this team was going to completely lose it, but you could feel the season slowly slipping away. Tonight stopped the bleeding. It may not be the start of a hot streak, and it did not transform the team, or fix any of its holes. However, this team really needed something to feel good about it, and it got exactly that tonight. This is the kind of victory the team can rally behind, and think back on when the next rough patch happens. Tonight said something about this team's mettle, and also galvanized the team further. The Mariners needed a game like this to stay in the pennant race.

Trade Worth Exploring #3

There are a couple versions of this deal. I am not sure if either are realistic, but they are worth exploring.

Brewers trade SS J.J. Hardy to the Mariners for SS Yuniesky Betancourt, SP Jarrod Washburn, RP J.J. Putz, and RP Mark Lowe

Why it makes sense for the Mariners: The Mariners need offense and defense, and they have a logjam in their pitching staff. While the loss of Putz would be noticed, Washburn and Lowe's combined 2008 production is replaceable from within, and Hardy would be a major upgrade over Betancourt.

Why it makes sense for the Brewers: With Ben Sheets and CC Sabathia hitting the free agent market (and Salomon Torres unexpectedly retiring), Milwaukee has all sorts of pitching holes. Washburn and Putz would fill a couple of them. Betancourt would be a downgrade at shortstop, but Milwaukee thinks top prospect Alcides Escobar is nearly ready for the majors anyway. If he is ready now, Betancourt could slide over to second, and Milwaukee's infield defense would be better than last year's. All of those are fairly short-term fixes though, so Mark Lowe is a piece that can stay in the organization for years to come, given that they are giving up a young shortstop that could be a Mariner for years to come.

Problems with the deal: The legitimacy of this deal is contingent on what the Brewers think of Betancourt and Lowe. Do they still think Yuni is a great fielder, and could be a decent hitter? Do they think Mark Lowe can re-gain the dominance he flashed when he first came up? If they say yes to both, this deal should be tempting. If they say no to both (as I would), they will probably look for better deals.

I'm not sure how Milwaukee would react to trade posed above. If they rejected it, I would make the follwing offer:

Brewers trade 2B Rickie Weeks and SS J.J. Hardy to the Mariners for SS Yuniesky Betancourt, SP Erik Bedard, RP J.J. Putz, OF Jeremy Reed, and RP Mark Lowe.

Why it makes sense for the Mariners: It's pretty much the same as above. The Mariners need offense and defense. Rickie Weeks could be the DH (as the M's try to move him to the outfield), and J.J. Hardy becomes the every-day shortstop. They M's also alleviate their pitching logjam with this deal.

Why it makes sense for the Brewers: If Bedard and Putz return to All-Star form, they more than offset the loss of J.J. Hardy, especially if Alcides Escobar is ready for the majors. Even if Escobar isn't ready though, Betancourt can play shortstop and utility man Bill Hall could take over at second. The bench would not be left bare thanks to Jeremy Reed, who is a decent pinch-hitting option and solid fourth outfielder.

Problems with the deal: How healthy do the Brewers think Putz and Bedard are, and how much are the Brewers thinking only about next year? This would be a risky trade with the possibility for big immediate returns. If they like Betancourt and Lowe enough as long-term options, this deal would look more attractive to them.

The Mariners should aggressively pursue a J.J. Hardy trade. If the Brewers are intrigued by J.J. Putz, Erik Bedard, and Jarrod Washburn, there may be a deal to be made. Hardy would be an upgrade offensively and defensively, and he is also under team control for a few years before he is even eligible for free agency. Beltre and Hardy would be oen of the best left diamond combos in all of baseball.

Looks Like Washburn Is Staying

Today, John Hickey of the Seattle Post-Intellegencer reported that the waivers on Jarrod Washburn and Raul Ibanez have expired, meaning both are staying in Seattle through at least the remainder of this season. There is still no report on the team that claimed Ibanez, but Hickey says it was the Twins that put a claim on Washburn. I am pleased to see that Ibanez is staying, but I cannot say the same for Washburn.

Taking a super quick look at Minnesota's farm system, I do not think they were as good of a trading partner as the Yankees. So, it is not surprising at all that no deal was struck. Still, if this report and the reports at the deadline are true, Seattle has now passed up two opportunities to dump Washburn's salary. To me, that borders on inexcusable.

I have never been a big fan of Jarrod Washburn's, so admittedly I am a little jaded. On top of that, I also have to admit that he is far from the biggest problem on the team. However, this team's payroll will be perpetually handcuffed as long as they continue to pay Washburn, Miguel Batista, and Carlos Silva big money to be mediocre pitchers (and combined they aren't even close to mediocre this year). Nobody will trade for Batista because he's been so awful, and Silva's contract is too big for a team to be interested in trying to revive him. That leaves Washburn as the only piece in the trio that could realistically be traded, and the level of interest he has received over the past month gave the Mariners surprising leverage. It should have been a no-brainer to trade Jarrod at some point in the past month.

The Mariners treated Washburn like he is an indespensible part of the team, when in reality he is part of a trio that needs to be broken up. I doubt his value will ever be higher than it was at the trade deadline, though he probably can still be moved in the off-season for something. Once the team starts interviewing candidates for the GM job, I hope they are all asked what they would do with the Silva/Batista/Washburn trio. If a candidate answers with anything besides "try to trade at least one of them," I would cross them off the list immediately.

If I Were In Charge (August Edition)

The trade deadline has come and gone for the Mariners, with only a minor deal shipping away Arthur Rhodes happening. The complete truth around the Jarrod Washburn trade rumors may never be known, but if I were the M's I would have given him away for fairly cheap (especially if the Yankees could have been coaxed into taking most of his salary). Now, the dog days of August are here, but thanks to the Morrow transition there is still some intrigue around this ballclub. There is also the potential for some more deals. As is pounded into everyone's head by sports media outlets these days, deals can be made after July 31. In fact, since the "trade deadline" rules for baseball are so mysterious, here is exactly how they work:

1. July 31 is the last day in a season that players can be traded without passing through waivers. Without going into detail too much on the waiver process, basically a player can be placed on waivers at any time. When they are put on waivers, any team can put a "claim" on the player. If a player is claimed, then the current organization can let the player go and receive nothing in return. In this scenario, the new team must take on all of the player's remaining contract. However, if a player is claimed, the player can be pulled off of waivers and kept by the original team, or the player can be pulled from waivers and a trade can be worked out with the team that claimed the player. So, basically, July 31 is the last day during the season that trades can be made with complete freedom.
2. September 1 is known best as the day that rosters can be expanded, but it is perhaps more important for another reason. Any players added to a team's 40-man roster after September 1 are not eligible for a team's post-season roster. That is why August 31 is considered a trade deadline of sorts, especially for teams in contention. September trades are extremely rare (the last one I can remember is when the Pirates traded Brian Giles to the Padres), but they can happen. Waiver rules for trades still apply in September.
3. Once the off-season starts, the rules "reset" in a sense. In other words, players do not have to pass through waivers to be traded in the off-season, and can be moved without passing through waivers until after next July 31.

So, technically, there is no trade deadline in baseball at all. It is just convenient to think of a couple days as trade deadlines, because rules make July 31 and August 31 quasi-deadlines. Hopefully this clears up some confusion on what is a rather confusing set of rules, since the actual rules are rarely all stated together.

Anyway, the actual point of this post is not to just outline what the Mariners could do, but specifically what I would do if I were the Mariners interim GM right now. Any post-July 31 discussion must start with placing players on waivers. Here are the players I would put out there, and what I would hope/expect to happen:

1. Kenji Johjima - His contract is horrible, and even though Jeff Clement is yet to light up major league pitching, he is a safe bet to be a better backstop than Johjima for the next three years. At the very least, Clement will be a much cheaper ineffective catcher. Given Johjima's bad contract, I would expect him to pass through waivers, and I also doubt anyone would want him in a trade. I wouldn't cut Johjima either, so in the end this waiver move is one that would probably never be known publicly. But, if a team does claim Johjima, I would let them take him, solely because I want to get his contract off the books. Why not test the waters risk-free, to see if some team will take Kenji's contract?
2. Miguel Batista - I could copy what I just wrote for Johjima. Batista goes on the waiver wire for the same reasons: he is rather pricey, and rather ineffective. However, Miguel still has pretty good velocity, and he does have post-season experience, as well as considerable experience as a starter and reliever. Furthermore, his contract does not have as many years remaining as Kenji's, so it is not quite as bad. I still would not expect a team to claim Batista, but I think he has a much better chance of being claimed than Kenji. Once again, if a team claims him, I would let them have him. If Miguel passes through waivers, I would strongly consider releasing him.
3. Miguel Cairo - I would much rather use Cairo's roster spot on an additional September call-up than on him for the remainder of the season. I do think there is a very good chance someone would claim him, and I would let him go. If he passes through waivers, then I would release him. I would call up Tug Hulett to replace Cairo, and add Matt Tuiasosopo to the 40-man roster, and call him up on September 1.
4. Willie Bloomquist - Willie has stunningly little power, and he thinks he might be able to grab a starting job somewhere next year through free agency. Even though he is a local product, I think the chances of him leaving in the off-season are pretty good, and I would not be heart-broken since he brings absolutely no power to the table. However, a guy with his versatility, his speed, a .280 batting average, and .380 on-base may be appealing to a contender looking to bolster their bench for cheap. If Bloomquist were claimed, I would work out a trade with whomever claimed him, keeping in mind that there may be a compensatory draft pick coming if he is lost in free agency, given how much he has played this year.
5. Jarrod Washburn - Washburn is probably the most interesting player waiver-wise the Mariners have. He was close to getting dealt at the deadline, so there is obviously some interest in him. If the Yankees were willing to take his whole salary at the deadline and it was the prospect package that held up the deal, they certainly would claim him on waivers. My suspicion is that some team would claim Jarrod, and if he is claimed, I would work out a trade. Of all the players I have on this list, I think a Washburn move is the most realistic.

Hypothetically, let's suppose that Cairo, Bloomquist, and Washburn are claimed, and that Cairo is allowed to go, a trade is worked out with the team that claims Washburn, and Bloomquist is pulled back from waivers and kept. This means that Kenji and Miguel passed through waivers. Given this hypothetical, this would be my plan through August:

1. I already said that Tug Hulett would replace Miguel Cairo on the roster, so that was basically given in this scenario.
2. A Bloomquist/Hulett platoon at shortstop could work surprisingly well, and I would recommend that Riggleman try it. In AAA, Hulett has destroyed righties but struggled against lefties (though in limited opportunities), while Willie has been noticably better against lefties this year. As much as I like Betancourt, he really needs to learn to take a few pitches, and I think a legitimate benching may be the best way to get across the message at this point.
3. As a side note, especially with Bloomquist in a platoon at shortstop, I would put Jeremy Reed in left field, Ichiro back in center, and Balentien in right. Raul Ibanez stays in the lineup as the DH. This gets the two M's outfielders with best range in left and center (where Safeco field is most spacious), and the two M's outfielders with the strongest arms in center and right (where the longest outfield throws come from). That outfield alignment may do more for to improve the pitching than anything else.
4. Getting rid of Washburn is key, because I want to take a look at Brandon Morrow, Ryan Rowland-Smith, and Ryan Feierabend as starters. I would call up Rowland-Smith to take Washburn's place, because I think he is the closest to ready (unless Erik Bedard is ready to come off the DL). Miguel Batista and R.A. Dickey are the next two out of the rotation once Feierabend and Morrow are ready, and to make room for both of them I would send down Jared Wells and and release Miguel Batista (the salary hit is easier to take with Washburn's contract off the books). If Erik Bedard gets healthy, I would strongly consider a six-man rotation the rest of the way, just to see RRS, Morrow, and Feierabend all get regular starts.

This is a very realistic hypothetical scenario, and could be executed by an interim GM. These are not moves that greatly alter the talent pool for future years, but do allow for better evaluation of prospects and a little more payroll flexibility. However, this is a team that held on to Jose Vidro until August, so I am not holding my breath.

Mariners Slowly Improving

I went away on vacation over two weeks ago, and I just got back yesterday. I did not have any ridiculous hopes of some miraculous turn-around or amazing trade happening while I was away. However, I had a list of fairly realistic things that I hoped the Mariners would do while I was gone:

1. Get rid of Jose Vidro
2. Begin transitioning Brandon Morrow into a starter
3. Trade Miguel Cairo and/or Willie Bloomquist
4. Trade Jarrod Washburn and/or Miguel Batista
5. Get rid of Jose Vidro

Admittedly, trades take a partner, so I realized wishes three and four may not happen even if the Mariners tried. From what I've gathered, Jarrod Washburn was quite close to being shipped ot the Yankees, but the Mariners had too high of an asking price. As disappointing as that was to hear, I was going to be quite upset if one, two, and five had not been taken care of. Thankfully, they were...though it took until the very last day of my vacation.

The timing of the moves really says something about the state of the organization right now. It is in better shape now, because I doubt the Bavasi/McLaren combo would have considered releasing Vidro, or moving Morrow from the bullpen. However, the current interim regime seems to have a hard time pulling the trigger on even the most obvious moves. I understand a reluctance to make major trades that would alter the franchise for years to come, given the interim status. However, everyone could tell that Vidro was not helping the ballclub now, and he certainly had no future with the team either.

The Morrow "conundrum" was even more pathetic. Supposedly, the organization as a whole was split on what to do with him. Those who wanted him to remain in the bullpen argued that there is no guarantee he will be as good as a starter, and that was apparently a good enough argument to keep him from transitioning for months. How pathetic is that? I happen to agree with the argument, yet also think that it is obviously the right move to try Morrow as a starter. This season is now all about evaluation, as even the Mariners have admitted. So, will there ever be a better time to try Morrow as a starter, and take the risk that he may be much worse as a starter than a reliever? Hopefully not.

At least the Mariners are getting better, but much too slowly. I understand that outside help through free agency and major trades has to wait until the off-season, once a permanent GM and manager are hired. However, there is no excuse for how long some of the blatantly obvious internal moves have taken. At least they finally were made, but whoever takes over next year needs to be more punctual.

Fixing the Mariners

Now that Lee Pelekoudas is taking over, the Mariners are clearly looking towards 2009. The team is already off to a good start with the news that Wladimir Balentien has been sent down and Jeff Clement called back up. Balentien needs to play every day, and hopefully he can get some confidence back with regular playing time in AAA. As for Clement, I expect him to show he is much better than what we saw in his first stint. He should assert himself as one of the best hitters in this lineup in little time. Bringing Clement back up was the obvious move that needed to be made, but here are some out things I would do to start turning things around:

• Send Brandon Morrow down to Tacoma (with a purpose) and recall Eric O'Flaherty - It is time to stretch out Morrow and try him as a starter. If this team were in contention it would be a dumb move, but this is one of the only times it pays to be out of the race. There is no need to pull off a Joba Chamberlain here. Morrow has all the time he needs to stretch out in AAA, and when he is ready to go, I put him in the M's rotation for the rest of the year. I am not convinced that O'Flaherty has his command back, but if he is that bad he can be sent back down once Putz comes off the DL. With Morrow in the minors, I would insert Miguel Batista as the closer until J.J. is back. There is a purpose behind picking him over what would seem to be the more logical option at this point, Mark Lowe. I would also make it clear to Jarrod Washburn that if he does not start pitching better, his rotation spot will go to Morrow. Otherwise, R.A. Dickey goes back to long relief.
• Place Jose Vidro, Kenji Johjima, Richie Sexson, Jarrod Washburn, Miguel Batista, and Carlos Silva on waivers - It is time to start assessing the market value of veterans on this team, especially the ones with significant contracts. Placing a player on waivers is not a real public thing, and there also is no commitment. If a team claims a player on waivers, one of three things could happen: 1) The Mariners could pull the player back off of waivers and keep him. 2) The Mariners could let the player go to the team that claimed him and get nothing in return. This sounds like a raw deal, but that also means the other team takes on all of the player's remaining salary. 3) The Mariners and the team that claimed him can work out a trade. I would cross my fingers and hope that Johjima and Batista are claimed in particular. Both of them could be replaced internally quite easily, and getting rid of their 2009 salaries would clear $16 million in payroll. More than anything though, I would be using the waiver wire as a cheap, quick way to assess the market value of the players I am most willing to trade. If a team is willing to claim one of these players, they may be willing to give up a worthwhile prospect to acquire him, especially if the Mariners pay some of the salary.
• If a team claims Vidro, work out a trade. If Vidro clears waivers, release him - There is absolutely no point in keeping Vidro around. With Jeff Clement back up, Vidro will see very little action the remainder of the year, and he is not part of the answer in 2009. I would expect him to clear waivers, and if he does, cutting him would give the Mariners another spot to play with on the 40-man roster. If some team does claim him, I would be willing to pay his whole salary to maximize whatever talent the team could get in return.
• Make it clear no veteran on the team is off-limits - I would entertain trade offers for any veteran on this team (including Ichiro), though I would not actively shop many of them. Still, I would be looking to maximize the number of trade offers at this point. Sometimes certain teams become enamored with certain players, and I would not want to stand in the way of that team offering a lop-sided deal.

That would take care of things up to the All-Star Break. Here is what I would do around the trade deadline:

• Actively try to trade Miguel Batista - There simply is not a place for Batista in my plan, thanks in large part to his poor performance, rather substantial contract, and availability of several cheaper arms in the system that could replace him (Morrow and Ryan Feierabend in particular come to mind). I think a market for Batista could be created by advertising him as the ultimate insurance policy. He can start, do long relief, short relief, or even be an emergency closer. He has experience in all the roles. Letting scouts watch Batista close is the reason that I would choose him to finish ballgames over Mark Lowe while Putz is on the DL. Since he still has good velocity, I think a team would take a chance on him around the trade deadline. If another team will take his whole salary, I would be tempted to give him away for nothing. More realistically, the M's will have to eat some of his salary, but it would be worth it. If Batista can't be traded, I hold on to him.
• Actively try to trade Richie Sexson - Unlike most, I would not cut Sexson immediately because I do not see anyone in the minors that is clearly better than him. However, at the same time, Richie clearly is not the answer moving forward either. It seems that some teams have shown tepid interest over the past couple years in him, and I would let it be known that I would pay his entire remaining salary to maximize interest. The Mariners were planning on paying him anyway, and it would make Richie much more attractive if he were free. Perhaps the Indians, Mets, or Rangers would give up a borderline prospect to try to revive Sexson for a few months, especially if it was at no financial cost. If Richie is traded, I would call up either Balentien or Bryan LaHair to take his place on the roster, whichever is performing better in Tacoma. Whoever is called up would play everyday. LaHair could directly take over at first, and Ibanez could be slid over to first to make room for Balentien in the outfield. If Richie cannot be traded before the deadline, I would release him and still call up either Balentien or LaHair.
• Trade Miguel Cairo and/or Willie Bloomquist - There will likely be a market for both players (especially in the NL), and there is no huge reason to keep either of them. They won't garner anything in return, and frankly I would prefer additional flexibility with the 40-man roster for September call-ups anyway. The first person I would call up to replace one of them is Bryan LaHair, if he is not already up. The next two in line would be Oswaldo Navarro and Tug Hulett, though Hulett's contract would have to be purchased.
• Hope for a lop-sided trade in the M's favor, and accept it if it comes - Wouldn't it be awesome to be on the other side of a Derek Lowe and Jason Varitek for Heathcliff Slocumb deal? Expecting something so gratuitous would be irresponsible, but maximizing slim odds cannot hurt. That is the idea behind exploring trades with all veterans, and adding flexibility on the 40-man roster by trading players like Miguel Cairo and Willie Bloomquist.

Once the dust settles after July 31, the next wave of roster moves would come with September call-ups. I would place Tug Hulett and Chris Jakubauskas on the 40-man roster if they are not already, and add Matt Tuiasosopo as well. All of them would come up in September, along with Ryan Feierabend. Tui is not having a sensational season in AAA, but adding him in September would hopefully add a little intrigue to the team for fans. It also would allow the M's to rest Adrian Beltre with his torn hand ligament, or maybe even shut him down for the remainder of the season altogether.

This season is not going to get any prettier, but the Mariners can get a head start on 2009. With Sexson and Vidro coming off the books after this season, the team already will have financial flexibility heading into the off-season. Freeing up spots on the 40-man roster by trading guys like Bloomquist and Cairo will add roster flexibility too. Flexibility is key in times of change, and the Mariners can add quite a bit while not making the team much (if any) worse this year and taking a look at some younger guys that could play important roles in 2009.

Washburn Finally a Mariner

The Mariners finally officially inked starting pitcher Jarrod Washburn, days after the deal had been reported. In the end, the two sides agreed to a 4 year, $37.5 million contract.

In Washburn, the Mariners get a 31-year-old left-hander who is mediocre in many respects. He strikes out an average amount of hitters, gives up an average amount of hits, and pitches an average amount of innings. Though he has never sustained a serious injury, he has been on the disabled list each of the last two years. Washburn will not get alot of double plays either because he relies heavily on fly ball outs. The only thing impressive about him is his ability to limit the running game as no one stole a base when he was on the mound last year. He also put up an impressive 3.20 ERA in 2005, though it should have been much higher based on any other number. Overall, the Mariners probably overpaid for Jarrod Washburn.

However, that does not mean this was a bad signing. The only better free agent starter available was Kevin Millwood, and he wanted a five year deal, which the Mariners were probably smart to balk at. In Washburn, the Mariners get a remarkably steady starter who is productive. Though that may not sound exciting, it is when you look at how the Mariners' starters performed as a whole in 2005. There is no doubt that Jarrod Washburn will improve the Mariners starting rotation and that is why this is a good signing, even if the price tag was too high.