Looming Roster Crunch

It is Lent right now, so the number 40 comes up.

Certainly, it's going around the M's front office too.

Picking the 25 players that open the season with the M's is going to be interesting enough, though most of the wide open battles are between relatively little-known players vying for relatively low impact positions. It's hard to get all that pumped up because of it.

However, the real interesting battle will be with the 40-man roster. There are going to be players cut, and some might grab headlines.

Here is the issue: the Mariners don't think many of their younger players are ready for the majors yet. So, stopgaps have been brought in as non-roster invitees. A handful of them are very strong candidates to make the roster. However, to be added, they have to also be on the 40-man roster - meaning someone has to get removed.

Serviceable Parts

With everyone paying attention to game seven of the NBA Finals, even me (gasp!...seriously, it's probably been a couple years since I've sat down to intentionally watch an NBA game), now is the perfect time for an obscure baseball post. A couple players hit waivers today that pique my interest.

The first is soon-to-be former Marlin Renyel Pinto. He is a huge lefty, listed at 6'4" and 265 pounds, and he has respectable 3.62 ERA for his career. I am quite surprised that a lefty as good as Pinto, at a rather young 28 years old, is available for anyone to claim.

There are a few buyer bewares with Pinto. First of all, over his career, his most effective pitch has been change-up. Consequently, he runs inverted splits - for his career, he has been better against righties. He certainly should not be a situational lefty. Also, Pinto's peripheral stats say his ERA should be about a run worse than it usually is.

With all that said, Pinto has a spot in someone's bullpen. The Mariners certainly should claim him, though I'll be shocked if he makes it that far in the waiver process (everyone in the NL gets a crack at him first).

The second player that hit waivers interests me even more. His name is Jayson Nix, a 28-year-old utility player. The White Sox designated him for assignment to reportedly make room for Dayan Viciedo. Nix had a pleasant surprise of a season last year, flashing moderately surprising power with pleasant defense. This year, his slash line is underwhelming, but his playing time has been limited to say the least.

Nix is what he is. He provides somewhere between solid and good defense at second base and the corner outfield slots. He also can defend shortstop and third base if needed. At the plate, Nix has enough pop in his bat to make pitchers pay for mistakes, but not enough to be a pivotal piece in a good offense. In Mariners terms, Jayson Nix is a better version of Matt Tuiasosopo.

If I were Jack Zduriencik, I would put claims in on both Pinto and Nix. The 40-man roster sits at 38 players, so there is room without booting anyone out. At the MLB level, Tui and Brian Sweeney could be sent down.

Nix and Pinto are far from franchise or season savers, but they would make several teams better, including the Mariners.

Byrnes Is Gone, More To Come

That was fast. I was hoping for some action tomorrow, but it happened tonight. Eric Byrnes has been released, and Matt Tuiasosopo sent down. Taking their places are Ryan Langerhans and Josh Wilson.

These are both good moves. I was a fan of bringing up Langerhans a couple hours ago, and I still am. Josh Wilson is a fine addition for now as well. He was hitting in Tacoma (though I doubt he can keep it up), and I like the message being sent that production matters. However, even when Wilson proves he can't hit all that much, his defense at shortstop allows the M's to pinch hit for Jack Wilson in crucial situations late in ballgames.

The only minor problem is that neither Langerhans nor Wilson are on the 40-man roster. One of them will take the spot cleared with Byrnes's release. The other we don't know about yet. Lookout Landing tweeted that Ricky Orta recently had Tommy John surgery, and transferring him to the 60-day DL would do the trick. I also think they could get away with transferring Erik Bedard to the 60-day DL if they wanted to, given that they are targeting a late May return for him as of now. However, Shannon Drayer is reporting that the move won't be transferring anyone to the 60-day DL.

Who knows. This is obviously unfolding as we all digest it. Personally, I think a DL move is likely. I could also see Jesus Colome getting DFA'd, which would require another player to get promoted. Heck, Mike Sweeney came up with a stiff back today, so maybe he lands on the DL.

Something else must happen, we know that for sure. The Mariners don't have anything internally that can change the whole complexion of the offense; but, the roster just got a little better, and the M's aren't done tinkering yet. Zduriencik also made little moves for Ryan Langerhans and Jack Hannahan last year, and for all we know he has another trick up his sleeve.

For now, this is certainly good news. Something had to be done, and the obvious move was made.

Early Thoughts On Spring Training

It's about time I post something this month, but the problem is that there just isn't much to be said that isn't already being said by others. Spring training is fun, but it's hard to evaluate much of what going on when a) all you have are radio broadcasts b) players only get a few ABs, or 20-30 pitches, and c) in those few opportunities, many are trying to get rust off/work on something new.

So I don't write much about spring training, other than it's fun for what it is. Personally, I don't put too much stock in spring performances unless they are way too good or bad to ignore. So far, nobody has had time to be stellar, and only Garret Olson and Kenn Kasparek have had forgettable outings.

I've come up with a few thoughts to share though:

• I hope Chone Figgins stays at second, and Jose Lopez at third. Statistics and scouting both give good reasons to believe the move will work, and a few weeks into the experiment, both players seem to be acclimating fairly well.
• I wonder how long Dustin Ackley will stay in the major league camp. He is getting rave reviews much like Brandon Morrow did in his first spring training. That scares me a little, but there's absolutely no room for Ackley on the opening day roster. Personally, I would still send him down once minor league camp opens up. There are enough guys that need to get work in who figure to be a part of the 2010 Mariners, and Dustin will be best served getting a lion's share of time on the field, instead of a few innings here and there.
• Matt Tuiasosopo is off to a hot start, much like last spring training. Undoubtedly, that will increase interest in his chances to make the opening day roster. He projects as one of the final cuts anyway.
• Mike Sweeney is off to a hot start too. There is no spot for him on the roster, but if he continues to hit well, what do the Mariners do? The players are professionals, but Sweeney was such a big part of the team last year, and he has asserted himself in the clubhouse yet again. Add a strong spring, and his situation will be as delicate as an aging non-roster invitee's can be.
• I would like to see Ryan Garko get some time behind the plate. By all accounts, he only moved because Victor Martinez was ahead of him in the Indians organization. Garko becomes a much more valuable commodity if he can catch some.
• Respected M's reporter Shannon Drayer has said multiple times that Eric Byrnes "looks fast" out on the field. Coming off significant leg injuries, that is worth noting. I'm not convinced his legs caused all of his problems that past few seasons, but he at least has a chance to prove me wrong if his legs are indeed strong and healthy.

Those are some of my thoughts, in no particular order. I'm open to more, and may even post more of my own in the comments if something pops up. Most of all, it's nice to have some sort of baseball action to talk about again.

2009 M's: Good To The Last Drop

Football is here, so it is easy to forget about the baseball season. It is especially easy since the Mariners likely aren't on their way to the postseason. However, the Mariners are almost as interesting to watch as ever. Here are some reasons to keep a close eye on the team in the midst of all the pigskin coverage:

1. I'll give you three reasons why in one fell swoop. After tonight's victory against Tampa Bay, the Mariners are 79-72 on the year. Three more wins secures a winning record. They have 11 games remaining. At this point, a winning season is a highly attainable goal, but no less remarkable. This team is looking at improving by more than 20 wins, which teams just don't do. A winning record, even if it's just 82-80, would be a big deal.
2. There is no guarantee Ken Griffey Jr. is coming back. He has been better than his .218 batting average suggests, even if his clubhouse contributions aren't considered. However, he isn't getting any younger. The M's face a challenging decision with him if he wants to come back. Enjoy him while he lasts, which may be only another week.
3. Felix Hernandez is in the thick of the AL Cy Young discussion. Today, the M's announced that he will get an extra start on the last day of the season. A separate post on Felix's chances may be warranted in the near future, but it's pretty clear him, Zack Grienke, or CC Sabathia will take home the honors. A few more wins would really help Felix's chances.
4. Matt Tuiasosopo's performance in the next week could have a profound impact on the offseason. If he earns some trust from Don Wakamatsu, he will be a more viable option to start somewhere on the infield. That could mean that the M's don't re-sign Beltre or Russell Branyan. Or (what I think is more likely), if they get both of those players back, Jose Lopez could be shopped around. He should have trade value, especially with the season he has put together at the plate. No matter what, Tui's performance in the next week will have an impact on the team's offseason plans.
5. Every start matters. What will the 2010 rotation look like, outside of Felix Hernandez, and probably also Ryan Rowland-Smith? It's anybody's guess. The competition is already underway. Brandon Morrow and Ian Snell both have the stuff, but lack control. Fister lacks stuff, but has the control. Guys like Jason Vargas, Luke French, and Garrett Olson are somewhere in between. They all will be in the conversation in spring training, but strong finishes from any of them won't be forgotten.

Of course, the end of the season would be more excited if a playoff berth was on the line. There is no way around that. Still, the 2009 Mariners will be interesting to watch until the final pitch. There is a reason to watch every game the rest of the way, and not just to imagine what the future might look like. Besides, I know I need something to forget those Frank Gore runs from last Sunday...

Fixing the Mariners

Now that Lee Pelekoudas is taking over, the Mariners are clearly looking towards 2009. The team is already off to a good start with the news that Wladimir Balentien has been sent down and Jeff Clement called back up. Balentien needs to play every day, and hopefully he can get some confidence back with regular playing time in AAA. As for Clement, I expect him to show he is much better than what we saw in his first stint. He should assert himself as one of the best hitters in this lineup in little time. Bringing Clement back up was the obvious move that needed to be made, but here are some out things I would do to start turning things around:

• Send Brandon Morrow down to Tacoma (with a purpose) and recall Eric O'Flaherty - It is time to stretch out Morrow and try him as a starter. If this team were in contention it would be a dumb move, but this is one of the only times it pays to be out of the race. There is no need to pull off a Joba Chamberlain here. Morrow has all the time he needs to stretch out in AAA, and when he is ready to go, I put him in the M's rotation for the rest of the year. I am not convinced that O'Flaherty has his command back, but if he is that bad he can be sent back down once Putz comes off the DL. With Morrow in the minors, I would insert Miguel Batista as the closer until J.J. is back. There is a purpose behind picking him over what would seem to be the more logical option at this point, Mark Lowe. I would also make it clear to Jarrod Washburn that if he does not start pitching better, his rotation spot will go to Morrow. Otherwise, R.A. Dickey goes back to long relief.
• Place Jose Vidro, Kenji Johjima, Richie Sexson, Jarrod Washburn, Miguel Batista, and Carlos Silva on waivers - It is time to start assessing the market value of veterans on this team, especially the ones with significant contracts. Placing a player on waivers is not a real public thing, and there also is no commitment. If a team claims a player on waivers, one of three things could happen: 1) The Mariners could pull the player back off of waivers and keep him. 2) The Mariners could let the player go to the team that claimed him and get nothing in return. This sounds like a raw deal, but that also means the other team takes on all of the player's remaining salary. 3) The Mariners and the team that claimed him can work out a trade. I would cross my fingers and hope that Johjima and Batista are claimed in particular. Both of them could be replaced internally quite easily, and getting rid of their 2009 salaries would clear $16 million in payroll. More than anything though, I would be using the waiver wire as a cheap, quick way to assess the market value of the players I am most willing to trade. If a team is willing to claim one of these players, they may be willing to give up a worthwhile prospect to acquire him, especially if the Mariners pay some of the salary.
• If a team claims Vidro, work out a trade. If Vidro clears waivers, release him - There is absolutely no point in keeping Vidro around. With Jeff Clement back up, Vidro will see very little action the remainder of the year, and he is not part of the answer in 2009. I would expect him to clear waivers, and if he does, cutting him would give the Mariners another spot to play with on the 40-man roster. If some team does claim him, I would be willing to pay his whole salary to maximize whatever talent the team could get in return.
• Make it clear no veteran on the team is off-limits - I would entertain trade offers for any veteran on this team (including Ichiro), though I would not actively shop many of them. Still, I would be looking to maximize the number of trade offers at this point. Sometimes certain teams become enamored with certain players, and I would not want to stand in the way of that team offering a lop-sided deal.

That would take care of things up to the All-Star Break. Here is what I would do around the trade deadline:

• Actively try to trade Miguel Batista - There simply is not a place for Batista in my plan, thanks in large part to his poor performance, rather substantial contract, and availability of several cheaper arms in the system that could replace him (Morrow and Ryan Feierabend in particular come to mind). I think a market for Batista could be created by advertising him as the ultimate insurance policy. He can start, do long relief, short relief, or even be an emergency closer. He has experience in all the roles. Letting scouts watch Batista close is the reason that I would choose him to finish ballgames over Mark Lowe while Putz is on the DL. Since he still has good velocity, I think a team would take a chance on him around the trade deadline. If another team will take his whole salary, I would be tempted to give him away for nothing. More realistically, the M's will have to eat some of his salary, but it would be worth it. If Batista can't be traded, I hold on to him.
• Actively try to trade Richie Sexson - Unlike most, I would not cut Sexson immediately because I do not see anyone in the minors that is clearly better than him. However, at the same time, Richie clearly is not the answer moving forward either. It seems that some teams have shown tepid interest over the past couple years in him, and I would let it be known that I would pay his entire remaining salary to maximize interest. The Mariners were planning on paying him anyway, and it would make Richie much more attractive if he were free. Perhaps the Indians, Mets, or Rangers would give up a borderline prospect to try to revive Sexson for a few months, especially if it was at no financial cost. If Richie is traded, I would call up either Balentien or Bryan LaHair to take his place on the roster, whichever is performing better in Tacoma. Whoever is called up would play everyday. LaHair could directly take over at first, and Ibanez could be slid over to first to make room for Balentien in the outfield. If Richie cannot be traded before the deadline, I would release him and still call up either Balentien or LaHair.
• Trade Miguel Cairo and/or Willie Bloomquist - There will likely be a market for both players (especially in the NL), and there is no huge reason to keep either of them. They won't garner anything in return, and frankly I would prefer additional flexibility with the 40-man roster for September call-ups anyway. The first person I would call up to replace one of them is Bryan LaHair, if he is not already up. The next two in line would be Oswaldo Navarro and Tug Hulett, though Hulett's contract would have to be purchased.
• Hope for a lop-sided trade in the M's favor, and accept it if it comes - Wouldn't it be awesome to be on the other side of a Derek Lowe and Jason Varitek for Heathcliff Slocumb deal? Expecting something so gratuitous would be irresponsible, but maximizing slim odds cannot hurt. That is the idea behind exploring trades with all veterans, and adding flexibility on the 40-man roster by trading players like Miguel Cairo and Willie Bloomquist.

Once the dust settles after July 31, the next wave of roster moves would come with September call-ups. I would place Tug Hulett and Chris Jakubauskas on the 40-man roster if they are not already, and add Matt Tuiasosopo as well. All of them would come up in September, along with Ryan Feierabend. Tui is not having a sensational season in AAA, but adding him in September would hopefully add a little intrigue to the team for fans. It also would allow the M's to rest Adrian Beltre with his torn hand ligament, or maybe even shut him down for the remainder of the season altogether.

This season is not going to get any prettier, but the Mariners can get a head start on 2009. With Sexson and Vidro coming off the books after this season, the team already will have financial flexibility heading into the off-season. Freeing up spots on the 40-man roster by trading guys like Bloomquist and Cairo will add roster flexibility too. Flexibility is key in times of change, and the Mariners can add quite a bit while not making the team much (if any) worse this year and taking a look at some younger guys that could play important roles in 2009.

Mariners Announce Spring Invitees

Yesterday the Mariners announced that they had invited 18 players not on the 40-man roster to spring training. For any of these players to make the team a player would have to be dropped from the 40-man roster and thus potentially lost to another team for nothing, so it stacks the odds against any of them. However, just last year P Brandon Morrow (75/81), P Arthur Rhodes (76/72), and C Jamie Burke (69/70) were in these players' shoes and made the opening day roster.

Every year three types of players are on this list: prized prospects that will not make the ballclub, but that the team wants to introduce to the major league environment, prospects the front office wants to take a closer look at, and veterans of either the majors or minors who could make it on the opening day squad, but more than likely are ticketed for AAA as needed organizational depth. Though prospects tend to get the headlines, I enjoy looking at the veterans because they have the best chance to make the team, and also because it showcases what I believe is Bavasi's greatest talent - finding players cast away by other teams that probably should not have been set free. He drives much nuts as a GM much of the time, but I admire his exceptional ability to find quality role players for cheap. Here is this year's list of spring training invitees:

P Phillipe Aumont (-/-) - Aumont definitely falls into the category of prized prospect with no chance to make the team. He will likely be compared to Morrow at some point, especially if he looks good in his first couple appearances, but he is much younger and even more inexperienced than Morrow was at this point last year. That being said, I am eager to get a chance to see how he does.

P Phillip Barzilla (59/63) - Barzilla is a 28-year-old lefty that had been in the Astros organization his whole career until now. He has major league experience, though only one-third of an inning's worth. I do not think he is much, but he was switched to the bullpen mid-season last year and posted a sub-1.00 ERA. I am guessing that is what prompted the Mariners to extend him an invite.

P Roy Corcoran (65/70) - Corcoran got cups of coffee in the majors in three different seasons with the Expos/Nationals, but spent all of last year in AAA at Albequerque, Florida's affiliate. He is a classic example of the kind of player Bavasi is great at finding. Corcoran is not a guy I would like to see working the late innings, but he is good enough to be a middle reliever on many ballclubs.

P Brodie Downs (56/66) - Downs is somewhere between "unique" and "intriguing." At 28 years old and a former 23rd round draftee, he does not seem to be exactly a prospect. However, he was drafted just last June, making him the only player besides Aumont invited to camp from the most recent draft class. His rating is the reflection of only 25.1 innings worth of work last season, so I do not know how well it reflects his actual ability. He is worth keeping an eye on.

P Stephen Kahn (50/68) - Kahn missed all of last season thanks to reconstructive knee surgery, so his rating is based on his 2006 numbers. A reliever, Kahn struck better than a batter per inning and kept his home run rate low, but also walked a bunch of batters and gave up a fair number of hits too. Much like Downs, he is a prospect the Mariners want to take a closer look at, but is quite unlikely to make the team.

P Kameron Mickolio (65/76) - I really like this guy, and so do the Mariners. He was drafted in the 18th round in 2006, but logged ample time in AAA last year and excelled. At 6'9" he is an imposing presence on the mound and has a bright future. Of all the prospects on this list, I think Mickolio has the best chance to make the team.

P Chris Reitsma (50/50) - Reitsma has really fallen off the table the last couple season, thanks in large part to injuries. If he has truly healed he may have some gas left in the tank and make a run at a spot in the bullpen. I think his chances are slim, but the real question is how much allegiance John McLaren has to him. If McLaren wants Reitsma on the roster, he will get every opportunity to make it.

P Arthur Rhodes (72/68) - Wisdom says that a pitcher in his late 30s coming off of major elbow surgery that made him miss all of last season would have almost no chance of making the team. However, this is Arthur Rhodes, and he is an exception for two reasons. First and foremost, McLaren remembers how dominant Rhodes was for the M's back in his prime, and without a doubt he would like to add Rhodes to the bullpen. However, beyond that, the numbers indicate that if he has recovered from the elbow surgery, he still has something to offer. Of all the veterans invited to camp, Rhodes has by far the best chance to stick.

P Robert Rohrbaugh (65/75) - Rohrbaugh has torn through the minors the past couple years rather quietly, only garnering attention the second half of last year when he was promoted to Tacoma and ultimately was named the Rainiers Pitcher of the Year. He was one of my darkhorses for the fifth starter spot until the M's signed Carlos Silva (75/74), but even without a spot to compete for on the roster, he will probably survive several cuts in spring training.

P Chris Tillman (46/78) - Many people are high on this former prep star, including the Mariners. They are treating him like a big-time prospect by inviting him to camp this year, though I think he is ultimately going to start the year in AA. I am not as sold on him as most, though I like his potential and do think he could take a big stride forward in 2008.

P Jake Woods (51/57) - He was a quality middle reliever in 2006, but struggled mightily in 2007. If he is sticking in the M's organization past March, he will be in Tacoma.

C Jair Fernandez (42/71) - Jair got invited most likely because the Mariners needed more catcher to handle all the pitchers. He is only 20 years old, but did not log even 200 at-bats in low A Wisconsin last year. He will likely be cut once enough pitchers are cut.

C Adam Moore (52/71) - Moore also gets an invite because of a need for catchers, but he may very well have received an invite regardless. He opened many eyes with an impressive season at Inland Empire, though it should be noted he was a bit old for the league at 23. He should open up the season in AA, and if he duplicates his performance last year he will become an even more interesting prospect.

C Brant Ust (56/61) - Much like Fernandez, Ust is here just for the pitchers. He is a 28-year-old utility player who did not even play much catcher last year in Tacoma. Still, it is a nice gesture by the team to give this career minor-leaguer a chance to play in a major league camp, even if it ends up being for only a few weeks.

2B Tug Hulett (66/72) - Hulett is a new-comer to the organization acquired in the Ben Broussard (73/72) trade. Hulett is not a star in the making, but he would be a good bench player. I would not be surprised if he hung around until one of the final cuts.

3B Mark Kiger (63/74) - Though Kriger has never appeared in a regular season MLB game, he has appeared in the playoffs with the A's in 2006! In fact, according to the Elias Sports Bureau, Kiger is the only player in major league history to make his major league debut in the playoffs. Last year he was in the Mets organization, where he spent most of his time in AA. He posted great numbers, though at 27 years of age he was rather old for the league. Kiger has played mostly third in his career, though he has played some at all infield spots. Kiger is another example of a quality role player that Bavasi has a knack for finding. He likely will not make the M's, but he should provide depth down in Tacoma.

3B Matt Tuiasosopo (51/70) - Tui has been invited several times to major league camp now, and it would still be stunning if he made the team. With that being said, I expect the team to give him a longer look this spring training, because I think he will ultimately start the year in Tacoma.

OF Bronson Sardinha (62/68) - Sardinha is a former first-round pick of the New York Yankees, and finally made the majors last year as a September call-up, appearing in only 10 games. His numbers were disappointing in AAA last year, but his combination of power and speed is intriguing, and at 24 years old he certainly could bounce back. Bronson is this year's version of OF Charlton Jimerson (59/69), except a little younger and a little better.

2007 Fall and Winter League Spotlights

In the final post of this three-part series, I take a look at the fall and winter leagues. Major League Baseball may wrap up by the end of October, but that is when seasons begin in Arizona, Hawai'i, Mexico, the Dominican Republic, and Venezuela. A diverse set of players participate in these leagues, and a certain number shine. Though there are many others worth mentioning, here are 30 players whose performances are noteworthy. They are organized by league they played in, and a brief introduction to each league is included as well. The parentheses () next to a player's name includes the rating they have based on the stats they have accumulated in the league, followed by their rating according to their minor league numbers in the 2007 regular season.

Arizona Fall League

As you will notice, nearly half of the players highlighted in this post come from the Arizona Fall League (AFL). In essence, the AFL is like the Futures Game that takes place All-Star Weekend, except with more teams and for an entire month. With so much young talent on display, the AFL gets the most coverage of any post-season league. However, since it is only a month long, it is also possible for players to perform drastically above or below their capabilities. For the most part, I focused on the players who performed the absolute best, and even though many performed equally well in the AFL, they are not of equal talent.

RP Mitch Stetter (107, 77/89), Brewers - Stetter's ERA was mysteriously high in the minors, given his impressive numbers. However, he still got a quick look at the end of the season in the majors, and then Milwaukee sent him to the AFL, where he absolutely dominated. A 6'4" left-hander, Stetter definitely deserves to be in Milwaukee's bullpen next year. His numbers suggest he could be the 2008 version of Hideki Okajima (80).

OF Sam Fuld (106, 58/75), Cubs - Fuld was named the AFL MVP, as he should of been with the numbers he put up. With that being said, he played well over his head in the league, and still is not a real interesting prospect. He should start the year in AAA, but will likely get called up at some point in 2008.

RP Dewon Day (99, 66/77), White Sox - Chicago picked Day up in the minor league phase of the Rule 5 Draft a couple years ago, and have unearthed an interesting prospect. Day racks up a ton of strikeouts, but he also racks up a ton of walks. His numbers were much more impressive in the AFL because he cut down on his walks. My guess is that his Fall League performance was a bit of a fluke, but if he continues to show improved command in Spring Training, he may find himself on the opening day roster. Actually, even if his control is erratic he may still wind up on the team. His strikeout numbers are impressive enough to overcome his great weakness.

SP David Purcey (96, 61/78), Blue Jays - Toronto's pitching staff is quite strong, so there is not much of a path for Purcey to crack the majors. However, trading A.J. Burnett (82) may change that. Purcey is no blue-chip prospect, but he should be on the radar at this point.

RP Calvin Medlock (96, 64/81), Rays - Medlock started 2007 in the Cincinnati organization, but was one of the pitchers traded to Tampa Bay for 2B Jorge Cantu (66/77). Medlock is yet to make his Major League debut, but between the Rays atrocious bullpen last season and his success in the fall league, he is in good position to make the Rays opening day roster in 2008.

RP Fernando Hernandez (94, 60/82), White Sox - Fernando is still probably a year away from the majors, but he had a very good year in AA and followed that with a terrific AFL performance. He should be ticketed for AAA for sure in 2008, and may make the majors at some point during the year.

SP Jake Arrieta (93), Orioles - Arrieta was a draft choice this year and only played in the AFL. It will be interesting to see where Baltimore puts him next year, because I am guessing they sent him to the AFL just to give him some pro experience. I doubt they expected a performance quite this good. He did not even allow a run.

OF Brett Gardner (92, 63/81), Yankees - Trade rumors have circled around OF Melky Cabrera (76/86) and OF Hideki Matsui (84), and the team is less than thrilled with OF Johnny Damon's (79) 2007 performance, especially defensively. So, it seems potential outfield spots in the Bronx may be opening up in the next year or two. Gardner has great speed, and has also flashed good hitting ability. He may develop into a solid leadoff hitter, though he is still at least a year away from really pushing for a spot in the majors.

RP Brian Anderson (91, 52/73), Giants - San Francisco already has a pretty good pitching staff, so Anderson does not figure to get much of a look this year. However, his Fall League performance was good enough to merit consideration from other teams in trades which could net the Giants some much-needed younger position talent.

OF Nate Schierholtz (88, 74/87), Giants - The Giants are not completely devoid of young position talent. Nate Schierholtz had a great year in AAA, and he backed that up with a great AFL season. He should be ready to contribute in the major leagues now, though the Giants seem pretty set in the outfield with Randy Winn (80), Rajai Davis (79/85), Dave Roberts (70), and their big free agent signing, Aaron Rowand (84). I would look to trade Winn to a team needing a centerfielder (perhaps the Braves?) and get a couple decent prospects in return (perhaps SS/OF Brent Lillibridge (62/79) and someone else?). Maybe the Braves have no interest in Winn, but Schierholtz should be starting somewhere in the Giants outfield on opening day, and there is no spot for him right now.

OF Travis Snider (85, 46/80), Blue Jays - Really, at 19 years old after a season in A ball, Snider should still be a long way from the majors. However, his AFL performance is tantalizing. He did play in a pitcher-friendly league, and exploding in 2008 after this fall league performance is not out of the question. Snider probably played beyond his actual abilities right now, but he clearly was not outmatched despite being one of the youngest players in this league.

3B Evan Longoria (83, 63/85), Rays - Any hesitancy the Rays may have had handing the hot corner over to Longoria in 2008 seem to be squelched by his fall league performance. Only an injury could stop him from starting for the Rays on opening day at this point.

OF Matt LaPorta (81, 47/78), Brewers - The Brewers top pick in this year's draft (and #1 on my 25TW list) got a little pro experience after signing, and then got more of a look in the fall league. Camparing favorably to guys like Travis Snider and Evan Longoria in a month-long season is not enough to make LaPorta a great prospect himself, but it is a promising start.

3B Matt Tuiasosopo (77, 51/76), Mariners - Tuiasosopo failed miserably in the fall league last year, so while his performance was not spectacular, it was a huge leap forward. His best attribute is his plate discipline, and if he ever shows some power his stock will go up considerably.

Hawai'i Winter League

The Hawai'i Winter League is kind of like the AAA version of the AFL. Teams are only allowed to send a certain number of players to the AFL, and often if they have other younger players who they want to get an extended look at, they ship them to this league. The Hawai'i Winter League has only four teams, and interestingly a high number of Japanese players populate these rosters. Still, a few players from major league teams are worth taking a look at.

SP Blake Wood (90, 46/77), Royals - There were some Japanese pitchers that were better than Wood, but I am guessing they already have commitments to play in Japan. Wood was the best hurler from the states, which probably says more about the talent level of this league than it does about the Wood. He had a nice year in A ball, and a very nice season in Hawaii, but that is the general them with Wood. He is a nice-looking pitcher, but not a great-looking one, and his fantastic performance in Hawai'i does little to change that.

OF Michael Wilson (88, 45/67), Mariners - Wilson had enough of a breakout year in 2006 that the M's felt the need to protect him with a 40-man roster spot. However, if it is possible for a player to un-break-out, Wilson did that in 2007 by seemingly losing all hitting ability. The only thing that salvaged his rating was his tremendous power. Now, in Hawai'i, Wilsons seems to have re-emerged again. His raw power is about as good as it gets, but everything else about his game is checkered with question marks. Because I am not sold on the quality of competition in this league, I am not convinced Wilson has turned it around.

C Matt Wieters (79), Orioles - Wieters was easily the highest profile player in Hawaii, but his performance was not eye-popping. In fact, given that players like Wood and Wilson were significantly better, it is somewhat disappointing that Wieters did not make a stronger showing. However, this was his first taste of pro baseball after sitting around for over three months. Wieters likely had some rust to shake off.

Mexico Winter League

Mexico also has a full summer season, but in the winter some major league players migrate south to join the Mexican stars. Latin America and Japan get plenty of publicity for the baseball talent they produce, but Mexico should not be overlooked. Because this league features many veterans, the competition is much stiffer than in the AFL or Hawai'i. Also, the season is longer, so the performances are a bit more telling of a player's true abilities. Looking at this league, there are several Mexican players that I think are good enough to earn at least bullpen and bench roles in the majors, and I take the time to highlight one pitcher in particular. There were also some players who for sure will be looking to make MLB squads in 2008.

RP Adrian Ramirez (92) - A number of Mexican pitchers have made strong showings in this league, but I chose to highlight Ramirez in particular for a couple reasons. First, he is still young, as he turned 24 in October. Second, he is a left-handed reliever. Listed at 5'6" and 185 pounds, Ramirez is not exactly an imposing figure on the mound, but he obviously does something that makes him hard to hit in an underrated league. Some team should give this guy a look.

SP Dana Eveland (88, 75/88), Athletics - Acquired in the Dan Haren (86/89) mega-deal, Eveland is one of the newest A's, and should have a very good chance to make the A's starting rotation out of spring training. He was injured most of 2007, so my player rater uses his 2006 numbers to determine his rating. If Eveland's Mexico numbers are any indication, it appears he has recovered from his injury well, and should be more than ready to compete in spring training.

1B Jason Botts (84, 71/80), Rangers - Botts has received some fairly long looks in the majors the last couple years, and with 1B Mark Teixeira (87/90) gone figures to have a chance to stay in the majors for all of 2008. He certainly has not hurt his chances with his showing in Mexico this winter.

1B Brian Myrow (82, 78/83), Padres - Myrow has only received nominal looks in the majors the last couple years, in 2006 with Dodgers, and 2007 with the Padres. However, his minor league numbers suggest that he could be a real contributor if given the chance. At 31 years old he is not exactly a prospect at this point, but he is good enough to be on a major league team. Myrow has not shown much power in Mexico, but his .464 on-base percentage is sensational. At worst, he should be a good left-handed pinch-hitter.

Dominican Winter League

The Dominican Republic is a great baseball country, but the winter league is strengthened by the number of players shipped to it by MLB teams for further development. Often, these players are making some major transition, such as from starter to reliever, or from bench player to everyday starter. Also, some players looking for one more chance in the big leagues will perform here, hoping to catch the eye of some MLB team.

RP Julio Manon (92, 73), Athletics - At 34 years old, Manon is a player who is not a prospect, but he also has not logged much time in the majors. He did appear in 23 games for the Expos in 2003, and 22 games for the Orioles in 2006, but his cumulative major league numbers are not that impressive (4.66 ERA, 1.70 WHIP). Manon is not on the A's 40-man roster, so his affiliation with the organization is loose at best. The bottom line is that some team with thin relief pitching (Orioles, Rays, et al.) should give Manon a try.

RP Oneli Perez (91, 62/82), White Sox - Chicago had a couple young relievers light up the AFL, but this young reliever should not be overlooked. He posted great numbers in AA, and figures to be in AAA to start 2008, with a pretty good chance to see some action in the majors before the season over.

OF Vince Sinisi (90, 70/81), Padres - I have read some rumors that the Padres are interested in trading for OF/1B Xavier Nady (76/78) to serve as their top bench player, getting spot starts in the outfield and first base. While I am a fan of Nady, I think Sinisi is an in-house option the team should seriously consider. He had a solid year in AAA that suggests he is a good bench option, and he has backed it up with a huge winter league. Between Sinisi and Brian Myrow (refer to the Mexico League section for more on him), I think the Padres bench is in solid shape as is.

RP Francisco Cruceta (90, 73/85), Rangers - Faithful Rainiers fans may remember Cruceta from 2006, when he led the PCL in strikeouts while pitching for Tacoma, earning a fleeting glance in the majors with the Mariners. The Rangers picked him up off waivers last offseason and he pitched in Oklahoma the entire year, eventually getting switched to the bullpen. He has pitched exclusively out of the bullpen in the Dominican and looked very good. Texas would be wise to give Cruceta a very long look in Spring Training, because he is good enough to contribute to their bullpen.

SS Erick Aybar (74, 62/77), Angels - There is not much about Aybar's offensive game worth getting excited about, which is precisely why I am taking the time to point him out. Aybar, according to Angels manager Mike Scioscia, will get the first chance to replace SS Orlando Cabrera (79). Simply put, he will be a huge offensive downgrade. The Angels would be much wiser to give INF Maicer Izturis (79/83) the starting job, even despite the injury concerns.

Venezuela Winter League

Venezuela's winter league is quite similar to the Dominican Republic's winter league. Even though I do not think there is much of a difference in the talent level between the two leagues, I would send prospects to the Dominican if I were a major league team because of the ongoing political unrest in Venezuela (several years ago the M's pulled Gil Meche out of this league because the political tension was so high). Still, there are players in this league fighting for roster spots that have made strong showings.

RP Francisco Butto (92) - Butto has never appeared in the majors, but was with the Yankees in 2006 and made it as high as AAA. A native Venezualan, he played in the Mexican summer league this past season, where he had a 3.27 ERA with 51 strikeouts in 44 innings pitched. Running his 2006 numbers through my player rater yielded a 56 rating, with a peak of 75. Though I doubt Butto has suddenly transformed into an incredible pitcher, his performance is noteworthy, and considering he is only 27 years old it looks to me like he has developed into a potential middle reliever.

SP Sean White (87, 65/72), Mariners - Most that are paying attention to M's in the winter leagues have focused on Brandon Morrow (75/86) and Ryan Rowland-Smith (73/84) as they have been stretched out to prepare for potential starting rotation spots. However, under the radar, Sean White has also been stretched out, and his WHIP is comfortably under 1.00 for the winter league season. White's already slim chances to make the M's starting staff effectively went to zero with the signing of Carlos Silva (75), but if he does not make the team as a reliever he has shown enough to merit regular starts in AAA.

INF Edgardo Alfonzo (86) - At 34 years old, Edgardo Alfonzo's best days are well behind him. However, in his prime, he was a pretty good player, and it looks like he still has a little something to offer. If the Mariners are serious about bringing someone in to compete with 2B Jose Lopez (68/81) for the starting job, they should give Alfonzo a look. They likely would only need to give him a minor league contract with an invitation to spring training, so there would be no risk at all. I do not think Alfonzo is as good as Lopez, or maybe even the recently acquired Tug Hullett (66/78) at this point, but I think Lopez would perceive Alfonzo as a legitimate threat. A veteran like him could push Lopez to start realizing his potential, and he is the ideal option because he would not require a guaranteed major league contract.

2B Jose Castillo (86, 62/70), Marlins - Castillo was with the Pirates in 2007, and as his rating suggests, did not perform real well (even the Pirates let him go, enough said). He took a step backwards in 2007, but at 26 years old he could still take a couple steps forward. Florida is considering moving Castillo to third base, but they also are toying with the idea of switching 2B Dan Uggla (76/80) to third and keeping Castillo at second, since he is considered the superior defender between the two. Personally, I would stick the better of the two defenders at third base, because it is a more demanding defensive position. That decision is made even easier because Uggla is the incumbent at second. Ultimately, Castillo will not be in the lineup at all if he hits as poorly as he did in 2007. However, looking at his career numbers and strong showing in winter ball, he appears to be poised for a bit of a rebound.

These are only 30 of the hundreds of baseball players performing in these leagues. If history is any guide, huge performances in these leagues lead to better opportunities in spring training, which leads to major league opportunities and success for a couple players each year. The dynamic of watching older guys trying to squeeze one last chance competing against young guys just getting their feet wet as a professional adds a certain character to the winter leagues that even AAA does not have. The collision of prospects at all levels in the AFL is special to that league as well. Every league has at least a couple diamonds in the rough; the only question is if teams find them and give them a chance. They may not be stars, but a quality pinch-hitter or middle reliever is worth something.

Prospect Profile: Matt Tuiasosopo

Now that the offseason has arrived, plenty of people will weigh in with their opinion on what the Mariners should/will do this winter. However, every Mariner fan needs to look in the mirror and realize that the Mariners are still a long way from being a playoff contender. So, the real question heading into this offseason is: When will the Mariners be a contender again? The answer lies in their farm system because every team improves by developing major league prospects. Luckily, the Mariners future looks bright thanks to many youngsters at the major league level (Felix Hernandez, Yuniesky Betancourt, Jeremy Reed, et al.) and many other promising youngsters in the minor leagues. Throughout the offseason, I will write short prospect profiles and by spring training I will have covered every prospect worth watching going into 2006. For the first prospect profile, I wanted a name any Seattle sports fan will recognize. The choice was a no-brainer.

Matt Tuiasosopo, SS, 19 years old

LOW A STATS

	AB		OBP		SLG		AVG
	409		.359		.386		.276
	2B		3B		HR		RBI
	21		3		6		45
	K		BB		SB		CS
	96		44		8		5

Everyone agreed that the Mariners hit a home run when they picked Tuiasosopo in the third round of the draft in 2004 but his first full year of professional baseball brought mixed results. Nothing about his numbers evoke excitement, but there is nothing discouraging either. Some would point to Tuiasosopo's low slugging percentage as disappointing, but he is only 19 and the Wisconsin League generally favors pitchers. Tuiasosopo played well enough in Low A this year to get promoted to high A in 2006 and it will be interesting to see what he does in the California League. Look for his power numbers to go up simply because he will have matured more physically and because the league is more hitter friendly than the Wisconsin League. If Tuiasosopo's on-base percentage improves he will truly be progressing. It is still too early to tell if Tuiasosopo is a legitimate major league prospect, but if he continues to progress at the rate of one minor league level per year he will be ready for the major leagues in 2009.