Hall of Fame Eve

not this year, but one year...maybe, hopefully

The Baseball Writers Association of America (BBWAA) announced the Hall of Fame class of 2016 tomorrow afternoon. I will be teaching when the inductees are formally announced. I may or may not post tomorrow depending on how interesting the results are.

Honestly, I probably will post something tomorrow. The early indications suggest a very interesting vote.

Let's start close to home with the story that I, personally, thought would not be a story.

Ken Griffey Jr. is going to make it into the Hall of Fame. That has been unofficially known for years, and will be made official tomorrow. However, as of this evening, Griffey is listed on all the publicly disclosed ballots.* Nobody has ever been a unanimous hall-of-famer and Tom Seaver's record percentage might be in reach. We won't know how historic Griffey's vote total is until the final voting is officially revealed.

*Side note: I love how many ballots get leaked publicly. I think it increases intrigue around the Hall of Fame voting. The BBWAA has accidentally stumbled into a beautiful system that gives us a chance to make educated guesses on Hall of Fame voting while still not knowing final answers until the official reveal.

Both Jeff Bagwell and Tim Raines project to be right on the razor edge for enshrinement this year. Their vote totals hover near the 75% threshold as of now, but both also exhibited some of the largest gaps in voting patterns between public and secret ballots. Their percentages will almost assuredly go down, and if the splits from last year hold true, their percentages should sink enough to keep both out of the Hall of Fame another year.

However, there is a pretty strong reason to believe that secret ballot voting patterns will change noticeably this year. The BBWAA amended their rules for who gets to vote and essentially did not mail out ballots to 100 old-time writers who have not covered the sport for over a decade.

It's impossible to say exactly how this will change voting, but the candidacy of Bagwell depends on wading into the murky waters of the PED "era" and differentiating within the large cloud of suspicion and shame that sits over that time in baseball history. The candidacy or Raines depends on advanced analytics much more than traditional statistics. Neither of these topics seem to be the types of things that a writer whom stopped covering baseball years ago would go to incredible effort to investigate and understand. This might go a long way towards explaining the huge gaps between the public and private voting patterns for Bagwell and Raines too, given that one of the largest motivators for revealing Hall of Fame ballots is through blog posts published for the teams, papers, and websites that active reporters write for.

It is vitally important, at least in my eyes, that Bagwell and Raines get in sooner rather than later. Edgar Martinez is not getting in this year, but he has gained more votes among returners to the ballot than anybody else, which is saying something because a handful of players are poised to make significant strides. My hypothesis is that the historically large class of 2015 helped clear out some needed ballot spaces. In other words, I think a number of the votes Edgar will pick up this year come from people who have always considered Edgar a hall of famer but squeezed him off the ballot in favor of others. Another historically large class would help clear the ballot further and get the BBWAA members back to a point where they are simply asking themselves if a player is a Hall of Famer or not, instead of also feeling pressure to rank who deserves a vote or not.

Tomorrow will be a significant day in Mariners history no matter the outcome of the 2016 Hall of Fame vote. The only question is how significant. Ken Griffey Jr. will become the first player in the Hall of Fame displaying a Mariners cap. As much as I love Dave Neihaus and Randy Johnson, the Hall of Fame is about the players and those caps. The Mariners become a little more concrete and everlasting once that trident gets chiseled on a Cooperstown plaque, and that will finally happen tomorrow. It will be a great moment in Mariners history that has been a long time coming.

How special will that moment be? Will it also be historic within the grand context of Hall of Fame voting? It very well could be. And how many others will join Griffey in the class of 2016? There is a real chance that the Hall elects another quartet, which would be good news for Edgar's continued campaign.

2016 Hall of Fame Ballot Announced

The BBWAA announced the 2016 Hall of Fame candidates today. This could be an interesting voting year for a few reasons. Let's dig in to the candidates. First of all, the newcomers:

First ballot: Ken Griffey Jr., Trevor Hoffman

'Nuff said. Maybe Hoffman has to wait because he is a reliever, but I doubt it. He and Rivera are in a world of their own, and quite possibly a world we will never see again as teams realize that relievers are more fungible than the monolithic Hoffman and Rivera suggest.

One and done: Luis Castillo, David Eckstein, Mark Grudzielanek, Jason Kendall, Randy Winn

Maybe someone in here gets at least 5% of the vote, but I doubt it. These were all good players, but not Hall of Fame players. Maybe Kendall gets a boost because he is a catcher.

Could linger, but won't make the Hall: Garret Anderson, Brad Ausmus, Troy Glaus, Mike Hampton, Mike Lowell, Mike Sweeney

The problem for all of these players is that they are (or at least should be) buried by existing candidates on the ballot. For instance, Mike Sweeney was really good - maybe even debatably a Hall of Famer - but can he really go in before Fred McGriff? Would Mike Hampton go in over Curt Schilling and Mike Mussina? Garret Anderson over Larry Walker? There are probably some debates worth having in this group, but not until the ballot opens up a little bit.

Borderline newcomers: Jim Edmonds, Billy Wagner

The case for Edmonds ultimately hinges on his defense. His hitting is quite good but pales in comparison to a guy like Larry Walker, who has some Hall of Fame support but is far from making the Hall at the moment. If Edmonds is viewed by voters as an elite defender with a good bat he might show well this year. In general, if/when the ballot clears up a bit, I think he could be a fun Hall of Fame case.

Billy Wagner is even more interesting because there is no doubt that he was an elite closer for several years. Was he elite enough for long enough though? We are just on the front edge of the one-inning closer era, so these debates are still getting sorted out. Trevor Hoffman won't settle where the line is. He is simply too good. Billy Wagner's vote total this year may give us a better idea.

The BBWAA elected four new Hall of Fame members last year, and I would think that this ballot only has two first-ballot members. So, that opens up at least two new slots on a minimum of three-quarters of ballots (since 75% is the magic marker for making the Hall of Fame). Here are the key people to pay attention to:

Above 60% support last year: Mike Piazza (69.9%)

Piazza is almost a shoo-in to make it this next year. He is too close and there are too many openings on ballots after last year's huge class.

Above 50% support last year: Jeff Bagwell (55.7%), Tim Raines (55.0%)

Both Bagwell and Raines need to be listed on about 20% more ballots, which is a huge jump, but in reality means only getting listed on 1 out of 5 more ballots. There is no reason to think they would get bumped off a ballot they were on last year given the nature of the newcomers and the abnormally large class inducted last season. Additionally, Raines is in his second-to-last year of eligibility, which could develop a sense of urgency around him.

Players in second year of eligibility: Gary Sheffield (11.75%), Nomar Garciaparra (5.5%)

Some voters believe in the mystique of the first ballot, thinking that there is a distinction between first ballot Hall of Famers and those who must wait a few years to get in. Voters who make this distinction may vote for a player in their second year who they believe is a Hall of Famer but did not support just because they did not believe they were First Ballot material. Only Sheffield and Garciaparra remain from last year's ballot. Given their low vote totals from last year, and the glut of strong candidates that remain, neither is likely to gain a ton of steam this year. I would not be surprised to see both of them take noteworthy jumps though.

Players in last year of eligibility: Alan Trammel (25.1%), Mark McGwire (10.0%)

Neither Trammel nor McGwire are going to make it into the Hall of Fame. But what do their supporters do on this year's ballot? Do they pull their support and start promoting other Hall of Fame cases? Is their a sudden surge of support for either of them?

Final hot take: 2016 could be another big Hall of Fame class, and it needs to be if the BBWAA is ever going to solve the ballot gridlock. Griffey, Hoffman, and Piazza are locks to make it in this year. Bagwell, Raines, and Wagner all have chances, I think. Not all of them will get in. The BBWAA has never elected more than five members in one class.

However, electing at least a fourth member would be good for future ballots, and more importantly good for the game. There are too many players on the ballot right now that deserve enshrinement. They won't all get in without some big classes for the foreseeable future.

I anticipate both Raines and Bagwell making the Hall of Fame at some point, but the sooner the better. Their candidacies aren't so much about them anymore. The clock is ticking on the likes of Edgar Martinez, Curt Schilling, Mike Mussina, and others. The longer that Bagwell and Raines linger, the more the door closes on some of the '90s and early 2000s best players. Hence why, as a staunch Edgar supporter, I have my fingers crossed for both Bagwell and Raines in 2016.

Historic Hall of Fame Class

I'll be in the middle of my actual full-time, paying job when the BBWAA officially announces the 2015 Hall of Fame class. I might sneak online to find out who made it, but no posts until well after the news breaks.

And there will be news. The 2015 vote will be historic, one way or another. There is significant drama going into the announcement too! Allow me to expand and explain.

Lots of voters reveal their ballots before the official announcement, and thanks to the internet, those are collected and gleaned for preliminary voting results. Think of them as an exit poll of sorts in politics - the very same exit polls that allow publications to call elections well before all the votes have been counted.

I kept track of the voting results over the past few weeks and developed a quick, simple computer program to glean a player's Hall of Fame odds. The methodology was rather simple. I simply asked how likely a player was to actually have the support of at least 75% of the actual BBWAA body based on the results in so far. The method assumes a random sample of the population (in this case, the BBWAA), which is actually rather problematic (more on that later) but not problematic enough to stop me from sharing the projected odds I have going into the official announcement:

Hall of Fame Odds (out of 100)

	87 BALLOTS	106 BALLOTS	183 BALLOTS
Randy Johnson	100	100	100
Pedro Martinez	100	100	100
John Smoltz	100	100	100
Craig Biggio	93	99	100
Mike Piazza	83	87	58
Tim Raines	35	0	0
Jeff Bagwell	37	25	0

These were the only seven players with a chance at enshrinement after 87 ballots.

Like I already mentioned, this class will be historic. There will be a minimum of four members elected with a legitimate chance at a fifth member. Five members in one year would tie the all-time record, which was set in 1936 - the very first year of the Hall of Fame, and still the greatest class ever. Just to remind you, that first inducted class was Ty Cobb, Honus Wagner, Babe Ruth, Christy Mathewson, and Walter Johnson. This year's class is on the cusp of going into the history books with that legendary group. Let that sink in for a second. It is legitimately epic and awesome.

However, my method assumes the public votes available right now are a random sample of the BBWAA voting body. That's a very dangerous assumption, so dangerous that I would say it is a poor one to make. Voters who make their ballots public don't just post their picks - they must also defend their picks. It's much easier, for instance, to vote for Nomar Garciaparra and Don Mattingly while omitting Randy Johnson and Pedro Martinez if you keep your ballot secret. These kinds of ballots are exceptional, but they pop up every year, and they are rarely (if ever) published. They are outliers for sure, but they still count, and unaccounted for in my method. In the cases of Johnson, Martinez, Smoltz, and Biggio, these odd ballots won't make a difference. In the case of Mike Piazza, however, every vote is going to matter, and it's those odd balls that lead me to believe his odds of enshrinement are actually closer to 50%, if not less than 50%.

Tomorrow will be a tremendous day for Major League Baseball. The only question is how great it will be. I have complained like many others about the ballot glut, but the voters are about to go a long ways towards fixing it. They should go farther, but beggars can't be choosers. We will get to celebrate a historically large Hall of Fame class and we should all be Mike Piazza fans tomorrow, especially those of us waiting for Edgar's turn. Clear out that ballot so 'Gar gets the recognition he deserves!

2015 BBA Hall of Fame Vote Recommends 7 for Cooperstown

The BBWAA will reveal the Hall of Fame's class of 2015 on Tuesday, but the Baseball Bloggers Alliance (which I am a member of) revealed their choices today. Here are the results, straight from the BBA press release:

Seven players from the 2014 Baseball Writers of America ballot were recommended for enshrinement in the Baseball Hall of Fame by the members of the Baseball Bloggers Alliance on Friday.

Given the backlog of quality players on the ballot, this year the BBA adopted the plan suggested by St. Louis Post-Dispatch columnist Derrick Goold of a binary ballot. Each player on the ballot was given a yes or no vote by the BBA voters and those receiving over 75% were then recommended.

With this format, pitcher Randy Johnson received 100% of the vote while pitcher Pedro Martinez was close behind at 95%. Others that topped the 75% mark were catcher/second baseman/outfielder Craig Biggio (90%), pitcher John Smoltz (89%), catcher Mike Piazza (85%), first baseman Jeff Bagwell (77%) and outfielder Tim Raines (77%).
Those that just fell short of the mark were designated hitter Edgar Martinez (71%) and pitcher Curt Schilling (68%).

The rest of the voting was as follows:

• Mike Mussina 67%

• Barry Bonds 65%

• Roger Clemens 63%

• Alan Trammell 53%

• Jeff Kent 44%

• Gary Sheffield 38%

• Larry Walker 37%

• Fred McGriff 33%

• Mark McGwire 33%

• Don Mattingly 31%

• Lee Smith 31%

• Sammy Sosa 23%

• Carlos Delgado 19%

• Nomar Garciaparra 13%

• Cliff Floyd 4%

• Brian Giles 4%

• Rich Aurilia 3%

• Darin Erstad 3%

• Troy Percival 3%

• Aaron Boone 1%

• Jason Schmidt 1%

• Jermaine Dye 0%

• Tom Gordon 0%

• Eddie Guardado 0%

Using this binary method, only 13% turned in a ballot with less than 10 names selected. 40% turned in a ballot with 15 or more names selected, with a high of 20.

I took liberal advantage of the binary ballot and ended up with 18 players I voted in favor of. I do not consider myself a proponent of a "big" Hall of Fame, but I suppose I will have to examine my position after my voting this year. I voted in favor of all seven enshrinees, the next nine highest vote-getters, and then both Mark McGwire and Sammy Sosa. Sheffield, Kent, McGwire, and Sosa were the last four on my ballot, if you were wondering, and probably the only four you could really talk me out of voting for on this year's ballot.

The BBA hasn't been around incredibly long, but has done its own Hall of Fame voting for several years. Historically I would call BBA votes "progressive." In general, the group votes more players into the Hall of Fame on each ballot than the BBWAA, but not more members in overall. The BBA simply votes in eventual Hall of Famers faster. For instance, Barry Larkin got in on the BBA's first ballot but the BBWAA's second. This year's vote looks like no exception as the BBWAA looks likely to elect five Hall of Famers but leave Bagwell and Raines out for now, though with high vote totals that usually end up with eventual enshrinement.

Just How Cramped is the 2015 Hall of Fame Ballot?

It's that magical time of the year where Hall of Fame voting occurs, which in recent memory has been the annual battle to get Edgar Martinez's incredible hitting accomplishments recognized. Edgar is my favorite player ever - a title he has a good chance of holding my whole life - so I am heavily biased. My love of him has probably only increased with the Hall of Fame battle he finds himself in. Others, such as the incomparable Jay Jaffe, bang the drum for Edgar every year, so I won't repeat my case for him.

However, Edgar's predicament has driven me to investigate the Hall of Fame in much more detail than ever before. This year's ballot is noted for how bloated it is, and I decided to see if it really is as clogged as many claim.

I started my investigation with a basic premise. There are two basic ways to get to the Hall of Fame: compile all-time great numbers over a long career, or without the counting stats, have an amazing peak that compares with the all-time greats. Career WAR can measure the compilers, and a simple best single-season WAR goes a long way towards describing a player's peak. Essentially, I approximated Jay Jaffe's JAWS stat by splitting it into its two core parts and treating those parts as an ordered pair. Below are the results:

Career bWAR vs. Single-season best bWAR

Current HOF (blue) and 2015 Candidates (red)

To start with, I was surprised at how compact the data is. I expected less of a relationship; in other words I expected more diversity (some players with mediocre peaks that played forever and some players without great careers that had absurd peaks). I do not know how much of this behavior is due to voting preference, but I would expect quite a bit of it. Anecdotally, different voters prefer different Hall of Fame sizes and different kinds of Hall of Fame careers, but a general consensus is forced by requiring 75% of ballots to name someone a Hall of Famer.

It's somewhat hard to see with the naked eye, but the relationship between season best and career WARs is more logarithmic than linear. That means career bWARs increase exponentially faster than single season bests with increasing larger bWAR totals. This phenomena is likely caused by a couple factors. First of all, it might be possible for a player to only be so phenomenal in one season, and all-time greats stay at that level longer than other players. This would result in a career bWAR that compiles every larger without creating a new standard for a season best bWAR. The second option is that Hall of Fame voters favor career accomplishments over phenomenal peaks at a predictable rate. I haven't looked into non-Hall of Famers, but that might be an interesting study to do at some point. My guess is that the relationship in this graph is caused more by the limits of how good a player can be than any voting bias.

Simple looking at the graph with a naked eye it's easy to identify four obvious Hall of Famers - Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Randy Johnson, and Pedro Martinez. Bonds and Clemens remain mired in PED purgatory, which creates the initial problem with this year's ballot. In normal circumstances Bonds and Clemens would have sailed into the Hall of Fame on the first ballot, but now their vote totals (or lack thereof) provide a barometer every year for how tolerant the voting bloc is of steroid use at the turn of the millenium.

Johnson and Martinez are newcomers to the ballot, neither with PED controversy around them, so they should theoretically sail through this year, emphasis theoretically.

The Big Unit's career, at least by peak and career WAR totals, is most similar to the likes of Tom Seaver, Lefty Grove, and Christy Mathewson, which is quite the trio. Mathewson went in as part of the first HoF class ever. Tom Seaver was also a first-ballot Hall-of-Famer and still holds the record for highest percentage of ballots (98.8%). Lefty Grove, though comparable to these pitchers, made it to the Hall in his fourth year of eligibility. So, who knows what kind of vote total Randy Johnson will end up with, but he's a strong candidate for enshrinement on his first try.

Pedro Martinez has two remarkably similar peers in the Hall of Fame already, Bob Gibson and Fergie Jenkins. Gibson went in on his first ballot with 84% of the vote, and Jenkins made it on his third try. It seems like many think Pedro is a given to make it on his first try, but I am not so certain. I agree that he should go in on his first try, but his case rests on a tremendous peak with nice, but not legendary, career totals. Neither Gibson nor Jenkins seem like borderline Hall of Famers at this point, but when they were voted on neither garnered phenomenal vote totals. Perhaps Pedro gets more votes than either of them because his iconic seasons came in the heat of the PED era, making him the first to get a bump from the era instead of a penalty, but Hall of Fame standards also keep escalating. I am curious to see Pedro's vote total, and I don't consider him a shoo-in to make it on his first try.

After that, there are lots of red dots on the chart well within the pack of "typical" Hall-of-Famers. Easily more than 10 dots, which speaks to the crowded ballot. It will simply be hard for players to get to the 75% line with so many viable candidates to choose from. So, theoretically, the players most "central" on the graph have the best chance - those who had both high peaks and lengthy careers. They have the kind of candidacies which should appeal to a broad enough swath of voters to cut through the backlog and make it into Cooperstown.

I found the median career bWAR for a Hall of Famer, and the median peak bWAR for a Hall of Famer, and then divided each individual player's WAR totals by the median to get a scaled score of how good they are relative to other Hall-of-Famers. Any number over 1 represents a player with a WAR total better than the Hall of Fame median. Below is the list of players who have above-average peak and career bWAR totals on this year's ballot, with their overall score (both peak and career scaled totals added) and their percentage on last year's ballot:

1. Barry Bonds (4.1, 34.7%)
2. Roger Clemens (3.8, 35.4%)
3. Randy Johnson (3.0, N/A)
4. Pedro Martinez (2.8, N/A)
5. Larry Walker (2.4, 10.2%)
6. Curt Schilling (2.4, 29.2%)
7. Mike Mussina (2.4, 20.3%)
8. Jeff Bagwell (2.3, 54.3%)
9. Craig Biggio (2.2, 74.8%)
10. Alan Trammell (2.2, 20.8%)

Only Pedro Martinez and Randy Johnson are newcomers to this list, which is mind-boggling when you think about it. These are players who had more productive careers AND better individual seasons than the CURRENT MEDIAN HALL-OF-FAMER. None of these 10 players should even be borderline cases - no matter a voter's preference for long-term success or a high peak - yet only two of the eight on this list that were on last year's ballot got over 50%. In fact, both Walker and Trammel seem likely to fall off the ballot altogether without sniffing enshrinement. Furthermore, only Bonds and Clemens have legitimate PED implications, though it seems that Jeff Bagwell has been lumped in with the PED crowd just because a bunch of voters feel like it.

It's lazy to blame the current glut on PED use. The steroid era certainly contributes, but the voting bloc has largely passed judgement already. Bonds and Clemens would already be Hall of Famers with well over 90% of the vote if not for steroid use. So, based on their vote totals, roughly 2/3 of voters won't even consider a steroid user no matter their career accomplishments - more than enough to keep any confirmed steroid user out of the Hall of Fame, and enough to have already cleansed the ballot of many PED users.

For fun, let's say that absolutely nobody voted for Bonds and Clemens on the 2015 ballot and instead put all their votes towards another player on the ballot. Only Biggio and Bagwell would get big enough boosts to make the Hall. Everyone else would still fall short,* even though nobody else with more than 20% of votes has PED suspicions in their past.

*Assuming that everyone who voted for Clemens also voted for Bonds, meaning there aren't 70% worth of votes to go around, but more like 35%. I would argue this is an extremely reasonable assumption.

The BBWAA, subconsciously, has turned into a club characterized by grumpy, cantankerous old men who I am convinced did not even watch the careers of most players on today's Hall of Fame ballots, and certainly does not bother to look at the production they accumulated over their illustrious careers. How else can some of these vote totals be explained? In what world do Mike Mussina and Curt Schilling have to fight to stay on the Hall of Fame ballot? Especially Schilling, with his Cy Young awards and fabled bloody sock to go with his Hall of Fame caliber stats. What exactly are 80% of these voters looking for?

As much as I want to argue in favor of Edgar Martinez, I am not sure I would even keep him on the Hall of Fame ballot with how crowded it is at the moment. The BBWAA, for whatever reason, has decided the Hall of Fame is pretty much closed. The current debates are pathetic and should not even be debates. There are blatant Hall-of-Famers who won't even sniff enshrinement this year, or the foreseeable future, until the complexion of the voting body changes. Good luck fixing the Hall of Fame with this group of voters.

Eighty Five Ballots Say Plenty

This morning I ran across a cool post called the Hall of Fame ballot collecting gizmo. It's simply an amalgamation of Hall of Fame ballots that have been made public. There are 85 as of the time I write this post (and the gizmo updates frequently).

I could debate who should or should not be in, but instead I'd rather offers some cold, hard facts to wrap up 2013. It turns out that we can figure out quite a bit from only the 85 ballots the gizmo has so far. The data already suggests a couple surprises to me at least.

2014 Hall of Fame Ballot

I have the pleasure of casting an unofficial Hall of Fame vote through the Baseball Bloggers Association. I look forward to seeing who bloggers would put in the hall this year. For the record, the BBA would have actually inducted someone last year (Jeff Bagwell), unlike the BBWAA.

Before revealing my ballot, I should say a few words about how I think about Hall of Fame voting. Everyone has their own twist on the Hall of Fame, which is why voting generates such heated and interesting debate. You deserve to know my own views.

First and foremost, I see the Hall of Fame as the physical manifestation of Major League Baseball's ongoing narrative. It should capture what it means to experience the game at its best through every generation. This view has some significant implications on this year's ballot:

• Steroid users should enter the Hall of Fame. Steroids were a part of a whole generation of the game at the turn of the millennium. The Hall of Fame should capture the best of every generation, regardless of how good or bad the generation was. I wouldn't say that I want to celebrate PED use, but letting steroid users in the hall is necessary to treasure the best the 1990s and 2000s had to offer. PEDs tarnished the generation, but rendering all accomplishments and memories for an entire time period meaningless is excessive.
• Designated hitters should also be in the Hall of Fame. The DH isn't an experiment anymore. It's been around for 40 years now. Like it or not, the DH is part of the game, so it demands some recognition in the Hall of Fame. It is part of MLB's narrative.
• Narratives are about more than performance. The best players tend to produce the best the game has to offer, but there is some wiggle room in my view. The absolute greatest of all-time transcend no matter what context they played in. However, the interesting Hall of Fame cases involve the tier of players below GOAT status. I'd rather enshrine a borderline player who contributed to some larger piece of MLB's narrative than a player who did not. This makes my Hall of Fame a bit less scientific, but welcome to reality. The best moments tend to be a combination of skill and good fortune. I'm okay with a Hall of Fame that embraces that reality.

Without further ado, my selections this year.

2014 Hall of Fame Ballot

The Hall of Fame ballot came out earlier this week, and thanks to a whole week off from school I've had lots of time to dig into it. This ballot stands out as a particularly important and invigorating one thanks to a confluence of factors. There are several first-time names on the ballot that are very sexy (Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, and Frank Thomas come to mind). There are holdovers like Roger Clemens, Barry Bonds, and Mark McGwire that continue to make voters think about the legacy of PEDs in the 1990s. Then there are also a few long-time ballot members that seem to be on the fence of induction. Chief among this final group is Jack Morris, who is on the ballot for the 15th and guaranteed final time. He earned over 67% of the vote last year, and needs to be named on 75% of ballots for enshrinement.

In other words, pick your favorite debate on this ballot. There are lots of fun ones, which is why this ballot might mean more than most. People are even debating the voting process itself. In fact, Deadspin has even purchased a ballot this year, presumably from a disgruntled voter. Literally any and all debates are on the table this year.

At some point I will offer my own Hall of Fame ballot on this blog, but this post isn't about who should be in the Hall of Fame. I decided it would be more interesting to ask who will make the Hall of Fame. I was pleasantly surprised when I realized that the voters and the voting process are more predictable than many believe - or at least I believed.

Edgar Martinez's Hall of Fame Chances

This is a guest post, courtesy an opportunity through FanDuel, so enjoy a non-Mariners fan's perspective of Edgar's Hall of Fame case.

* * *

It is another MLB offseason, which means for Mariners fans, the Edgar Martinez Hall of Fame debate heats up. While fans in the Pacific Northwest are pretty much unanimous in thinking that Martinez should be enshrined in Cooperstown, voters seem to be pretty mixed.

The biggest issue for Martinez right now has more to do with how the voters look at things than his actual numbers. It is not like he is getting new at-bats in-between each season to increase his odds. The numbers are staying the same, but as of right now, there needs to be a change in the way voters think for him to have a shot.

As has been the case since he first appeared on the ballot in 2010, the people against Martinez love to cite that he only played 592 games in which he needed to bring a glove. Defense has always been a tough thing to judge, but you can’t be judged at all if you are a designated hitter. That hurts him in the voting now just like it hurt him in the MVP voting during his playing days. Having just two top 10 MVP finishes in his career, many also believe he accumulated solid stats instead of ever dominating baseball.

Those voters who rely more on advanced statistics though are right with the Mariner homers who think Martinez should already be in the Hall of Fame. His career on-base percentage, which is a much more well-rounded metric than simply batting average, is .418. Since the 1940s, only Barry Bonds, Mickey Mantle and Frank Robinson have had better careers in that regard.

Winning batting titles while still slugging quite a few home runs is never an easy feat either. He has a pair of batting titles to his name, and with over 300 home runs, he has a rare blend of average and power that puts him in the upper-echelon of best all-around hitters.

Ever since receiving support somewhere in the 30-40% range, things have looked bleak for Martinez to make it into the Hall of Fame. He does have a few things working for him though that should get him in eventually.

For starters, he was well liked by the media, fans and fantasy baseball players. Character counts in the Hall of Fame, especially when it comes to fringe players. His numbers will age well as he is compared to other steroid-era guys and analyzed by a more analytical crowd. The wait your turn deal might seem silly to some (again, nothing changes between now and say 10 years from now regarding his statistics), but judging by the way the Hall of Fame votes, he still has some years to wait before finally being appreciated.

BBA 2013 HOF Inductee

Lots of capital letters flying around the title. I apologize. It beats the long-winded title I would have if I wrote out every word. "Inductee" is not a typo either. Despite a bloated Hall of Fame class, only one player earned 75% of the BBA vote.

Jeff Bagwell is the whole 2013 Hall of Fame class for the BBA - which might be one member larger than the real one the BBWAA releases on Wednesday. Bagwell received over 75% on last year's BBA ballot too (along with Barry Larkin) but obviously did not get the same support from the BBWAA.

The most interesting and telling vote totals are for Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens though.

My Argument For Edgar

Disclaimer: Edgar Martinez is my favorite baseball player, and always will be. He is part of my childhood kind of like my little Mickey Mouse doll, which accompanied me when I was put under to take out my tonsils. 'Gar isn't just any other Mariner to me. He was easily my favorite, even when Ken Griffey Jr. (in his prime), Alex Rodriguez, Randy Johnson, and Jay Buhner were around. So, Edgar's Hall of Fame debate admittedly strikes a personal chord with me. It is a strong enough one to warrant a disclaimer before I make my case for why he should be in the Hall of Fame.

The Hall of Fame will announce the 2010 inductees on Wednesday. Members of the Baseball Writers Association of America (BBWAA) for at least 10 years vote on eligible players. A player is eligible for the Hall of Fame five years after retiring. A player is inducted if 75 percent of ballots include their name. They may stay on the ballot up to 15 years, as long as they garner votes on at least five percent of the ballots cast.

This is Edgar's first year eligible. The good news is that it looks he will easily be on five percent of the ballots. The bad news is that it looks like he will also easily fall short of 75 percent.

Let the debate on Edgar's Hall of Fame credentials begin.

First of all, there is plenty already out there. Locally, the movement is well underway. First and Edgar is dedicated to getting 'Gar into the Hall of Fame, and also includes links to pro-Edgar articles/arguments. If you have Twitter, you should add this twibbon too.

On the national level, the Mariners sent this to every BBWAA member with a Hall of Fame vote. Furthermore, Edgar's candidacy is receiving attention from major national sports media outlets . Check out this article by David Schoenfield at ESPN if you haven't already. Joe Posnanski at Sports Illustrated dedicated this article mostly to Edgar's case as well.

I have been on the fence about a blog post on Edgar for a few weeks, especially with what has already been written. I like to try to add something a little different, and for the most part I find myself nodding in agreement with what's being written about Edgar. I don't have any new statistics to add that demonstrate Edgar's hitting prowess. I would cite the same players in the articles I've linked to above when it comes to comparisons as well.

Ever since Edgar retired, it has been obvious that he would be one of the more intriguing Hall of Fame cases in a long time. He is an inner-circle, no-brainer according to just about any sabermetric hitting statistic. However, he is easy to discard by the traditional counting statistics, with the exception of his career batting average. Compounding that are the facts that he played in Seattle, baseball's outpost, and that he was a designated hitter, a position half of baseball has not adopted, and that many frankly don't like. Just last month, Cardinals manager Tony La Russa said he wants the DH eliminated as a member of an advisory committee formed by Bud Selig.

Edgar Martinez, more than anyone else in a while, is going to make voters think about what makes a Hall of Famer a Hall of Famer. He is not like Jim Rice, Jack Morris, or Bert Blyleven, where he is relatively easy to categorize, and the debate is if his numbers warrant induction compared to players similar to him. Edgar is a highly unique case, thanks to the M's ineptitude that kept him in the minors until his late 20s, and then his hitting prowess once given a full-time job - but mostly as a designated hitter.

As I have read debates and considered the thinking both for and against Edgar Martinez, one thing continues to get overlooked. One of the most fundamental purposes of the Hall of Fame is to preserve the history of the game. Why else would it collect bats, balls, gloves, spikes, jerseys, and hats from important moments and games? The bronze busts and plaques made for enshrined players are an incredible individual accomplishment, but together they say something about the game of baseball. They lift up what makes baseball great. They make a commentary on what baseball is, and what it looks like at its finest.

The debate rages on over whether the designated hitter should be a part of baseball or not. However, like it or not, it is more than a fad. It is undeniably a part of baseball history at this point. It is an accepted part of the game. Yet, when it comes to the Hall of Fame, the position is being marginalized in a similar fashion to gambling and drug use. That's simply inexcusable.

For those who argue relievers were marginalized in the same way, they never were. The fundamental nature of bullpens has changed within the past few decades. Bullpens used to be comprised of pitchers not good enough to make the starting rotation. Now, some arms are groomed for the high-leverage, late-inning situations. Reserving a good pitcher for those situations revolutionized the bullpen, and I believe is also the primary reason starters do not work as deeply into ballgames nowadays. Consequently, the Hall of Fame has acknowledged the revolution by inducting some of the better relievers of all-time.

Whether or not Hall of Fame voters like the designated hitter, they need to acknowledge its role as an accepted part of the game in the American League for over 40 years. There is no better way to do that than inducting Edgar Martinez. He was one of the greatest hitters of his generation, and is among the best hitters baseball has seen since World War II. Statistics back that up, and the pitchers that faced him back that up too.

Edgar is much more than a sabermetric wonder. His 1995 ALDS against the Yankees is legendary, particularly the grand slam he hit off of John Wetteland in game 4, and "the double" in game 5, both with the Mariners trailing late in elimination games. He is one of the biggest reasons the Mariners continued to win despite losing Ken Griffey Jr. and Alex Rodriguez in their primes in back-to-back seasons. The DH of the year award was named in his honor upon his retirement too.

Like any of the best hitters of all-time, Edgar's anecdotal evidence supports the sabermetric evidence. He wasn't just a great designated hitter, he was an exceptional one. The best of all-time, hands down, and few would argue that.

Would Hall of Fame voters keep the best shortstop of all-time out of the Hall of Fame? What about the best starting pitcher, or the best closer, or best first baseman? No, absolutely not, unless they used steroids, or gambled, or agreed to throw the World Series. The designated hitter is unlike other positions, and I will concede that it is less demanding than most. However, it is still a position. That's a fact.

The best designated hitter of all-time should be in the Hall of Fame, especially when he compares favorably to many of the best hitters of all-time in many ways. Ultimately, that is why Edgar Martinez is a Hall of Famer in my eyes.

Ichiro Does It Again For The First Time

We needed some reason to wait out all the rain in Texas. Seriously, since when does it rain for days on end deep in the heart of Texas? Alas, not only did the M's win their first series in Arlington since 2006, but Ichiro made history. He got his 200th hit this season, as he always does, literally. Nine seasons in the majors, nine 200-hit campaigns. Nobody has ever done that.

Nobody.

Ty Cobb didn't do it.

Pete Rose didn't do it.

Nobody.

This isn't something remarkable because Ichiro came over from Japan and did it. I repeat, no baseball player has ever collected nine straight 200-hit seasons. Rattle off any of Ken Griffey Jr.'s, Randy Johnson's, or any M's player's career accomplishments, and they don't include something the game has never seen before. That is, until tonight, with a little dribbler that Ichiro beat out.

Ichiro's 200th hit of 2009 was the 453rd infield hit of his MLB career. Let that sink in for a second. Ichiro debuted in the majors at 27 years old. Considering how great his rookie season was, we can only imagine what could have been if Ichiro had signed with the Mariners as an up-and-coming 18-year-old prospect. He could be on pace for over 1,000 infield hits in his career.

What we are witnessing right now is more than special enough though. Just this year, Ichiro surpassed 3,000 career hits, 2,000 MLB hits, and now notched 200-hit season number 9 - in a row, because 9 all by itself just isn't impressive enough.

It is difficult to put Ichiro into any sort of historical perspective. He is, essentially, a slap-hitter extraordinaire. His approach to hitting was the preferred method until about 1920 or so, when Babe Ruth started bludgeoning baseballs new lengths, and accumulating unfathomable home run totals. Since Ruth, anyone with the power to hit the ball out of the ballpark on a consistent basis has been encouraged to tune their game towards power.

Slap-hitting didn't leave the major leagues with Babe Ruth. It left the spotlight though. Ty Cobb was universally considered the best player ever to play the game before Ruth. Debate ensued for decades after both players retired, largely fueled by their drastically different hitting styles. Now, the debate includes legends like Ted Williams and Willie Mays, both players with over 500 career home runs.

Baseball isn't devoid of great slap-hitters since Ty Cobb. Pete Rose and Rod Carew come to mind. Still, take a look at the hitters most comparable to Ichiro according to Baseball Reference. It is a hodgepodge of players that mostly played before World War II. There are some notable contemporary ballplayers in the mix, such as Kenny Lofton and Ken Griffey Sr., but Ichiro plays a throw-back style of game as good as any of the old-timers.

Yet, at the same time, Ichiro is as new-age as they come. He is the first position player from Japan to ever play in the major leagues. He has his first name stitched on the back of his uniform. He's not exactly the type of guy that rubs a little dirt in his bare hands, spits a wad of tobacco juice out of his cheek, and digs in at the plate. He has his own clothing line back in Japan, after all. Ichiro maintains an unquestionably modern persona, so much so it masks his old-style game. It only adds to Ichiro's mystique and complexity.

Ichiro is a hall-of-famer. Just how great is he though? 3,000 MLB hits would be highly impressive. He basically would have to average 200 hits a season until he is 40 to reach that. It seems unlikely, but this is a man that has put together nine straight 200-hit seasons, and is putting together a season comparable to his rookie one at 35 years old. There is Ichiro's defense too, which I haven't even touched on at all. That's certainly part of what makes him so great.

There is the pressure Ichiro plays under too. When asked how he feels when he breaks a record, he said, "When I break a record I never feel satisfaction and I feel that is from the expectation from Japan, I strongly feel the expectation from Japan. It kind of, (pause) my records are things I feel that I feel the Japanese in Japan feel I must have. I always want to feel satisfaction but whenever I accomplish a record I only feel relief. It is not allowed for me to not accomplish this."

Ichiro is one of a kind. Purely from a cold, hard, statistical standpoint, I think his offensive impact is overrated. His OPS is always good, but not great. His batting average is consistently great, but his on-base percentage is only good because he is so aggressive. I thought re-signing Ichiro to the big deal he got was a bad decision, especially with his age.

However, at this point, there is no denying Ichiro's greatness. The more I watch him, the more I'm convinced he is the closest thing to Ty Cobb that baseball has seen in the past century. However, Cobb never had to deal with the culture shock that Ichiro did, the stigma that Japanese position players are not MLB caliber, or the pressure from an entire nation that comes with breaking a stigma. All of that's old news now because of how well Ichiro has done, but it is still worth mentioning. The fact that it is old news says plenty about Ichiro.

Comparisons are hard with Ichiro because there simply is no comparison. He has carried the high expectations of a nation with remarkable ease and acumen. He has brought a host of old players to life, and forced us to blow the dust off of long-standing records. He has been the one and only Ichiro.

Dave Niehaus, HOF

Today the recipient of the Ford Frick Award was announced, and it was none other than Dave Niehaus. The award itself is prestigious, but the biggest perk of winning is enshrinement in the Hall of Fame. Niehaus had been a finalist for the Frick award for the past several years.

It seemed clear that Niehaus was getting closer and closer to winning the Frick award, and to a certain extent it seemed inevitable that he would get it and be inducted into the Hall of Fame. It also seemed likely that he would win the Frick award before any Mariner player would be enshrined in Cooperstown. However, even though in many ways this moment had been coming for years, it does not take away from the magnitude of this achievement. For Niehaus, there may be no greater honor. This award asserts him as a broadcaster for the ages, preserving his legacy at a level beyond the Pacific Northwest.

This is a big deal for the Mariners too. Sure, Gaylord Perry got his 300th win with the Mariners and is in the Hall of Fame, but he was more of a passer-by in franchise history. Dave Niehaus is not. He started with the Angels, but developed into a Frick award-winner as a Mariner. He has been with the franchise from the start. As important as Martinez, Griffey, Buhner, Johnson, Wilson, Moyer, and others have been to this franchise, Niehaus was here before all of them, and is still around now that they are all gone (though I hope Griffey comes back some day). Dave Niehaus is a Mariner and always will be. Truly, having a bona fide Mariner in the Hall of Fame is a major step forward in Mariners' history. It may not show up on the field, but there is a certain level of status that cannot be achieved without someone in the Hall of Fame.

Even though this day has been coming for years, it is still so sweet. As great as a number of the '90s Mariners were, I would not have wanted anybody but Dave Niehaus to be the first Mariner inducted into the Hall of Fame. With signature calls like "My oh my!" he was the first to give this franchise an identity. He has watched all the lows and celebrated all the highs, delivering them to the fans day in and day out in only the way that he can. He was one of the first two members of the Mariners hall of fame, he threw out the first pitch in Safeco Field history, and now he is the first Mariner hall of famer. This is a great honor for a great man that has given so much to the Mariners and the Pacific Northwest. I don't know what else to say besides my oh my. His impending induction speech this summer will be one of the greatest moments in Mariners history.