Ichiro, All-Time Hits King*(?)

Ichiro, in a pose that I hope one day is preserved as a statue somewhere in Safeco Field.

Ichiro is having himself a fine season with the Miami Marlins. He finds himself up to 2,979 career MLB hits and seems nearly certain to get 3,000 this season (likely sooner rather than later). More significantly, Ichiro just passed Pete Rose for the most hits ever by a professional baseball player if his hits in Japan are included with his MLB stats.

Understandably, there are divided opinions on whether Ichiro's Japanese league hits should count or not. Shockingly (note the sarcasm) Pete Rose doesn't think they should. His argument is essentially the age-old "slippery slope" one: the Japanese leagues are not the same caliber as MLB, so where does the line stop? Should Rose's minor league hits count then? What about Negro League stats?* If Japanese stats are included, our record books live in an entirely new world.

*Editorial note: those should totally count, and it would be a worthy challenge to try to translate those to Major League equivalencies.

Rose is obviously biased, especially given that the hit record is all he has thanks to his banishment from baseball for gambling. I am obviously biased too, given that I am a Mariners fan and watched Ichiro's prime up close. Still, even I can admit that Rose has a valid point. I think he is asking the wrong question though. The Japanese leagues are strong, but not as strong as Major League Baseball. That is not the real question at the heart of this debate between Ichiro and Pete Rose.

Who is the true hit king? And how do we figure that out?

I, for one, propose a different investigation. What if Ichiro had played his whole career in Major League Baseball? How different would his hit total be?

Obviously, we can never know for certain how different Ichiro's career would have been if he played his whole career in Major League Baseball. However, we have seven full seasons of data in Japan (plus a couple cups of coffee early on) and over a decade of data in MLB to look at. This is enough to make some educated guesses on.

So, I made some educated guesses. This whole next section is about my method. You can skip it if you want to avoid the details underneath the hood and go straight to the results (look for the next bold headline) if you prefer.

Translating Ichiro's Japanese hits into MLB equivalencies

Simply translating hits would be a pretty sloppy way to make the jump from Japan to MLB. Really at the heart of the transition is the quality of pitching and how Ichiro responded to it. There is at least a belief that MLB pitchers are quite a bit better than Japanese pitchers as a cohort. Better pitchers tend to strike out more batters, issue fewer walks, and/or induce weaker contact.

So, I chose to look at five stats: plate appearances (PA), walk percentage (BB%), strikeout percentage (K%), home run percentage (HR%) and batting average on balls in play (BABIP). Plate appearances log how many times Ichiro steps to the plate (walks and at-bats together). BB%, K%, HR% and BABIP all describe outcomes at the plate: either Ichiro walked, struck out, hit a home run, or put the ball in play somewhere. This is as true in MLB as it is in Japan. The real trick is figuring out how these factors changed when Ichiro faced MLB pitching. We would see evidence both of better pitching and any strategic adjustments Ichiro made within these numbers. Finding the conversions, and then using those conversions to adjust his Japan numbers, would give a good idea how Ichiro's seasons would have translated in MLB.

The other reason to use these underlying numbers is that they all stabilize relatively quickly. Fangraphs sample size suggestions say that BABIP of all these numbers is the most unstable, and the only one which would not stabilize within the confines of one season. The same could not be said for many other statistics. Eliminating noise in the data by picking stats that stabilize the quickest should help with accuracy.

Lastly, I decided to consider sample size anyway. I took all seven of Ichiro's full seasons in Japan but weighted them with his age 26 season worth 1, 25 worth 1/2, 24 worth 1/3, and so on until his age 20 season was worth 1/7. I went through the same process with his first 7 seasons in MLB, though with his age 27 season worth 1, age 28 worth 1/2, age 29 worth 1/3, and so on. Essentially, my assumption is that we really want to find the conversion between his age 26 and 27 seasons and use that to gauge as best we can how the rest of his Japanese seasons would have unfolded if they had happened against MLB pitching. Ichiro no doubt developed over his time (both in Japan and the United States), but he also had some up and down seasons. Including multiple years, but weighting them in the way I did, is an attempt to have neighboring seasons inform the investigation without obscuring that the most important and helpful data is closest to when Ichiro made the transition.

With the conversions for all five stats, it is easy to reverse engineer Ichiro's estimated hit total. I took Ichiro's plate appearances and multiplied them by 1.2 to account for the MLB season, which is approximately 20% longer than the Japanese regular season. I then took Ichiro's BB%, K%, HR%, and BABIP for each Japanese season and adjusted them according to the conversions I found based on his numbers in Japan versus his numbers in MLB. Then, with these four rate stats altered, I went back to his projected plate appearances and extrapolated how many walks, home runs, at-bats, and most importantly, hits he would get.

Results

First of all, the conversion rates I found with my method of investigating Ichiro's statistics confirmed that Japanese pitching is not as strong as MLB pitching, and that there is a noteworthy gap. I estimated that Ichiro's walk rate sunk about 37%, strikeout rate rose 18%, home run rate dipped 64%, and BABIP rate sunk 13% when he transitioned from Japan to MLB. In other words, pitchers walked Ichiro less while also striking him out more and inducing weaker contact (given that he hit way fewer home runs and less balls in play went for hits). These are strong indicators across the board that MLB pitching was a noteworthy step up for Ichiro.

Here are Ichiro's Japanese numbers, adjusted for MLB competition based on how he transitioned to MLB:

Age	| Jpn PA	Jpn AVG	Jpn HR	Jpn Hits	| MLB PA	MLB AVG	MLB HR	MLB Hits
18	| 99	.253	0	24	| 119	.216	0	25
19	| 67	.188	1	12	| 80	.168	0	13
20	| 616	.385	13	210	| 739	.345	6	242
21	| 613	.342	25	179	| 736	.321	11	220
22	| 611	.356	16	193	| 733	.323	7	223
23	| 607	.345	17	185	| 728	.316	7	215
24	| 558	.358	13	181	| 670	.323	6	206
25	| 468	.343	21	141	| 562	.324	9	171
26	| 459	.387	12	153	| 551	.352	5	179

The results are fairly interesting, and counterintuitive at first. Clearly, Ichiro's batting suffers against MLB pitching. His projected batting average dips 20-30 points every year and his projected home run totals plummet. However, his projected hit totals increase.

This counterintuitive result is largely driven by the longer MLB season, and more directly the assumption that Ichiro would be playing every day. However, the only reason that matters is because of how all the other factors combine.

Ichiro's shrinking walk and home run rates, while harmful to his overall value as a hitter, actually helped him more than offset his increased strikeout rate. Simply put, overall, Ichiro put more balls in play in MLB than he did in Japan because he walked so much less and hit so many fewer home runs that they more than offset his elevated strikeout rate. All three of these factors take balls out of play, and the main driver of how many hits a player gets is how many balls they put in play. Moreover, while Ichiro's BABIP shrunk some, it did not shrink a ton. The net result is a relatively similar hit rate extended over a longer season. In fact, I project Ichiro would have over 200 more hits if he had played in the majors - 1,494 projected hits to his actual 1,278.

There is one last big catch though that's pretty impossible to answer: when would Ichiro have debuted in Major League Baseball? He almost certainly would not have played as an 18 or 19 year old, especially given his struggles. 20 years old is also very young for a player to debut, much less start a whole season, but Ichiro's age 20 season was arguably his best in Japan. 20 isn't so ridiculously young to think Ichiro couldn't have made the majors at that age, especially given that he is a Hall of Fame talent and that he performed at such a high level in Japan. However, there really is no way to know.

If Ichiro had debuted playing every day as a 21-year-old, I have him projected at 4,193 total hits if he played his whole career in MLB. That would be less than 100 hits short of Pete Rose. So, if Ichiro had debuted halfway through his age 20 season and performed as well as he did, then he would theoretically have the all-time hit record. It's certainly plausible that Ichiro could have done this. Is it probable that he would have though? Hard to say, maybe even impossible.

Of course, this all assumes that Ichiro doesn't get another hit in MLB, and he isn't done yet. He is likely to collect several more hits between now and the end of his career. The more he gets, the later he would have to debut to be the all-time hit king with my projection method.

So, is Ichiro the new all-time hits king? It's hard to say. If he isn't, he is darn close. He is most certainly in a realm only Ty Cobb and Pete Rose have entered before him. That's ultimately the whole point in my eyes.

Ichiro's hit total tells a story; it says something about who he is and what a marvel he is when he steps into the batter's box. History suggests that there will be another hitter something like Ichiro at some point, but hitters like him are exceedingly rare, not even once in a generation. There is no guarantee we see another hitter like Ichiro in our lifetimes. That's what his Japanese numbers help us see and appreciate. That's the real story here. Long live Ichiro.

Ichiro

Ichiro got traded to the New York Yankees for RHP Danny Farquhar and RHP D.J. Mitchell. Let's get the most uninteresting part out of the way, scouting Farquhar and Mitchell.

Danny Farquhar is a diminutive 25-year-old reliever that has bounced around some, clocking some very brief time in the majors in 2011. He was a 10th round draft pick in 2008 out of the Lousiana Lafayette. Farquhar consistently posts solid AAA numbers, and maybe he could produce some decent innings in an MLB bullpen. However, Farquhar is what he is, organizational depth.

D.J. Mitchell is an undersized right-hander (though not as undersized as Farquhar) out of Clemson University. He has an ERA over 5.00 in the rather pitcher-friendly International League (AAA). He was also a 10th round draft pick in 2008. He is now 25 years old, and for the most part has posted decent enough numbers to get steadily promoted through the minors. He looks like organizational depth.

In other words, the Mariners got nothing for Ichiro (with all due respect to Farquhar and Mitchell). These are pitchers who could contribute, but in much the same way that Josh Kinney currently contributes to the Mariners. These are the kinds of pitchers that Jack Zduriencik is able to consistently find as minor league free agents to fill out his bullpen. They aren't the type of guys a team really needs to trade for.

Then again, with all due respect to Ichiro, the Mariners did not give up a highly valuable contributor at this point. Ichiro is a 38-year-old outfielder in the final year of his contract. His performance dipped considerably last season, and it hasn't rebounded much, if at all. Overpaid, over-the-hill superstars just months away from free agency due do not cost much to acquire, shockingly enough. From the Yankees perspective, that's the kind of player they just acquired.*

*Maybe. Ichiro's road numbers are much better than at home (.297 batting average versus .214), as is the case with virtually every Mariner. Perhaps Ichiro will be a decent hitter for the Yankees. Time will tell.

From the Mariners perspective, and particularly Mariner fans, we just lost a franchise icon. We lost this:

And we lost this:

Progress Report: Hitters

Here's part two in my series of grading player performances based on their performances so far. If you want to read part one on the pitching staff, go here. I will note that these grades are mostly based on the players' hitting performance, rather than defense, or fashion sense.The rest of the grades are arbitrarily determined and whatever I felt like giving them. Enjoy!

Japan Series Recap

I like to write a game recap for the season opener. This isn't a blog that really does game-by-game analysis, but one game out of the year is fun. With a couple games (both in the wee hours of the morning), why not recap the "series" as a whole? Here are some unassorted bullet points, particularly if these games were just box scores for you:

Punches In The Face

After a pretty ugly sweep at the hands of the Indians, it seemed appropriate to reference one of the best quotes Ichiro has graced us with.

It was a rough weekend, no doubt about it. The series was great until the first pitch was thrown, very literally. The pre-game festivities for the home opener were fantastic. I was lucky enough to be there, and the Niehaus memorial/celebration met the high standards that the Mariners have set for themselves. Marilyn Niehaus was the perfect choice to throw the first pitch, and it was an excellent touch to bring the whole family on the field. Renaming a block on first avenue "Dave Niehaus Way" is amazing, and I try not to use that word lightly. Safeco Field's home plate entrance now sits at the intersection of Edgar Martinez Drive and Dave Niehaus Way. That is so unbelievably cool.

The short awards ceremony to hand out the hardware from last year was sensational too. The team deftly kept Ichiro out on the field after he got his Gold Glove to recognize him with something for becoming the franchise's all-time hits leader. The organization got him a nicely framed photo, but it was all about who delivered it - Edgar Martinez, the man he passed. Edgar is my favorite Mariner of all time, so of course I was excited to see him unexpectedly come out of the dugout. However, the best part was seeing Ichiro and 'Gar shake hands, pose for some pictures, and in general symbolize the best the M's have had to offer for the past 20 seasons. That alone was worth the price of admission...

...which is good, because the Mariners didn't do much after the games started to warrant a portion of a paycheck. Here are some fun numbers from the series:

Ichiro Gets His Hits

I haven't written enough on this blog about Ichiro. I think that says more about me than him. I'm not trying to be a counter-cultural blog here, but I am trying to give fresh thoughts and perspectives. Ichiro is rather robustly covered, and so he doesn't cross my mind very often as a writing topic.

Ichiro just knocked off my favorite player ever, Edgar Martinez, from the top of the M's career hit list. Even as a die-hard Edgar fan, I'm anything but bitter. Ichiro is known for his hit totals much, much more than Edgar ever was. There is no doubt that Ichiro deserves the honor he reached tonight, and I hope nobody catches him anytime soon.

Well, nobody with the exception of Dustin Ackley. It's okay with me if he gets 3,000 career hits.

Back to Ichiro though. Another reason I don't write much about him is because I don't know what to say. He is magnificent, but it is hard to describe exactly what makes him him.

Thoughts on Opening Eve 2011

I just finished watching the Giants and Dodgers play a quintessential pitcher's duel, and I eagerly await the debut of the Mariners tomorrow. In the meantime, a random assortment of thoughts:

• In 2003, Bob Melvin made his managerial debut on opening night, and it was also in Oakland. That's about all that is the same between Eric Wedge and him, but it was an excuse to unearth the box score from that game. It is one of those random games I vaguely remember for no good reason. I remember the M's looking bad, and they did in a 5-0 loss. I didn't remember Mark McLemore starting at shortstop, Ben Davis at catcher, or Giovanni Carrera pitching a scoreless eighth. This is a team that won 93 games. Therefore, if the M's are shut out tomorrow, I will expect a 93-win season.

Current Hall of Famers

I have been watching college football all day, which is awesome, but it still isn't baseball. The holidays stalled my posts too. Well, that and a lack of any sort of news in baseball. There still is not much to say, though Hall of Fame inductees will be announced on the fifth.

That will do for a subject. I won't write a "who I would pick" kind of post, because I don't have a vote.

Instead, how about active players just waiting to make the Hall of Fame? Here is my starting lineup of active players who could end up in the Hall of Fame:

Matsui's No Trade Clause

Hideki Matsui signed with the A's, which has been known for a few days, but became official this morning. I wasn't going to write about it, but then I saw the terms. Matsui's contract includes a limited no trade clause. He cannot be traded to six teams: the Orioles, Blue Jays, Indians, Royals, Twins, and Mariners.

I am taking a guess that Matsui wants to play for a contender, and that might have something to do with the first four teams on the list. Who knows, maybe Matsui is also like Ichiro, and would have to punch himself in the face* if he said he enjoyed playing in Cleveland.

*Scroll down for quote, it's right above the "For the Record" heading

However, the list of teams can't be all about wins and losses. The Twins are contenders in the AL Central every year right now. Also, even though the Mariners are not in a position to contend in 2011, there could be more to their inclusion on Matsui's list too.

Today Says It All

Really, doesn't today's Mariners game say it all?

Ichiro got to 200 hits in the middle of the game. King Felix wasn't his most dominant self, but still relatively dominant: 8 innings, 2 hits, 4 walks, 5 strikeouts, and 1 measly run. Yet, at the end of the day, the Mariners lost 1-0.

Seriously, what if some random person on the street was told to sit down and watch this game? Someone with absolutely no knowledge of what's happened this season. They would see Ichiro, and hear the announcers laud him for his 200th hit, and how amazing of an accomplishment it is. Once that was over, the focus would return to the mound, where they would notice that Felix looked like he was cruising. If the fan was asked at the end of the game to take a guess at what the 2010 Mariners have been like, they would say something to the effect of, "Ichiro and Felix are great, but even they aren't enough to keep the rest of the team from losing."

Isn't that the story of the 2010 season?

The 2011 Core

This is 2011 Mariners week at the Musings, as I said with the first post yesterday. I split the roster into three basic parts: the guaranteed contracts, the arbitration eligible players, and everyone else (the folks making the minimum salary with no way out unless the team ditches them). Today is a look at the guaranteed 2011 contracts.

A guaranteed contract is a big deal, both for a player and a team. On the team's side, all the money is guaranteed, even if the player is cut loose. It's a significant financial commitment. On the player's side, the system is set up to make them go about a decade in pro ball before hitting free agency.

The system is set up for players with guaranteed contracts, particularly big ones, to be the core of a team. Players need to be good in a team's eyes to warrant big money, and they have to have accumulated enough MLB service time to make it this far. We will see that the Mariners have a few exceptions to this rule, but the basic premises set up how I will evaluate the core.

The first question is as simple as they come: How good is the core? Is it a group a winning team can be built around? What are its strengths and weaknesses?

The second question is almost as important: Is the core worth the money it is getting paid? There is only so much money to go around, and if players are gobbling up more salary than they are worth, it means that the overall core probably isn't that good, and also limits the ability to improve it with outside help. This is why bad contracts are so crippling.

I will start with the second question and get back to the first. Here is a look at each 2011 Mariner with a guaranteed contract:

2010 Mariners Preview

It has been a while since I've woken up and known the M's are going to play a game that matters. That is the beauty of opening day for me.

By now you have probably checked out enough previews and predictions, so I will try to take a bit different approach. Instead of giving some broad overview, or trying to give exact numbers, I will focus on key changes, and key players. With this team, that's more than enough to write about.

So, here are my reasons the 2010 Mariners won't be just like the 2009 bunch.

First of all, the changes:

1. Chone Figgins replaces Adrian Beltre - It is debatable which of these two players is actually better, but let's not forget how bad Beltre's 2009 campaign was. He missed significant time with injuries, and even when playing, they made him a shell of the hitter he can be. Figgins in 2010 will blow away Beltre's 2009 production, even if the defense isn't as good. This is one of the biggest reasons to expect the M's offense to be better this year.
2. Casey Kotchman replaces Russell Branyan - Kind of an opposite argument here to the Figgins/Beltre one. With Branyan's back problems, it is pretty clear who is the superior player right now. However, there is no getting around the gaping hole Branyan's 2009 production at the plate leaves. Kotchman won't fill it, but he should at least hit for average, and he brings a much, much better glove with him to first. Casey is a very different player than Branyan, but overall I think he is a better replacement then most are giving him credit for right now.
3. Jack Wilson replaces Yuniesky Betancourt/Ronny Cedeno/et al - Jack isn't a great hitter, but he's definitely better than Yuni or Ronny was in 2009. His defense is light years ahead of virtually every shortstop too (especially Yuni). It's easy to point at Jack and say he is a reason this team won't score enough runs, but don't forget who he is replacing from 2009. He is a big reason this team has a better starting nine this year - and even a reason it is reasonable to expect the M's to score some more runs.
4. Milton Bradley replaces Endy Chavez/Michael Saunders - I don't care how good Bradley's legs are, the defense takes a hit with him out there. However, he is the superior hitter. Yet another reason this team will score some more runs, though not as clear-cut if this is a significant upgrade, considering the defense, and Bradley's well-documented past.
5. The starting rotation has more upside - Chris Jakubauskas, Garrett Olson, and Carlos Silva combined to make 25 starts for the 2009 Mariners. That's not going to happen this year. Ian Snell is in line to eat up a lion's share of those starts. Certainly, Snell is a question mark, but I'll take him over the trio he replaces. Furthermore, Cliff Lee is in line to take Jarrod Washburn's starts, and while Wash was surprisingly fantastic, I'll take Lee too.
6. Kanekoa Teixeira and Shawn Kelley are taking over middle relief - Both of these pitchers have question marks around their ability to handle this role, but would you rather have them, or the Miguel Batista/Garret Olson/Chris Jakubauskas cross-your-fingers-for-a-few-innings mix the M's had in that role in 2009? I thought so.
7. Brandon League is in the bullpen too - Brandon Morrow, Roy Corcoran, and Randy Messenger combined for 44 relief appearances last year. A healthy Sean White and Shawn Kelley may take some of those appearances, but many of them will likely be handed to Brandon League. That's a good thing.

There are key holdovers to watch too. Here are some particular situations worth watching:

• Ichiro will be worse, but how much worse? Ichiro had one of his best years in 2009. Age and regression to the mean should catch up to him in 2010. He can't be banked on to put an equally insane year, though he should still be great. However, on a team offensively challenged, this is worth pointing out, and worrying some about.
• How good will David Aardsma be? I liked Aardsma as a breakout candidate last year, but never expected him to be as good as he was. He isn't likely to keep his home run rate as low as he did last year, and he has been beaten around pretty hard in spring training too. I wonder how long Wak will stick with Aardsma in the closer's role. I think Mark Lowe takes over as early as mid-May. I'm that worried about Aardsma.
• How good will the catchers be? I mean this in a positive way. The M's have suffered through a couple seasons where the backstops have more or less been a black hole on offense. That shouldn't be the case this year. Both Rob Johnson and Adam Moore have some offensive upside, and in this case, even being below average is a noticeable improvement. Johnson and Moore are more than capable of that. Plus, gone are the days of pitchers whining about Kenji's pitch selection.
• Will Ken Griffey Jr. be better than last year? Supposedly, Griffey's knee has been bad for a few years, but is better now. For what it's worth, Griffey's walk rate increased significantly the past few years, and his BABIP went way down. There is a correlation, but that doesn't mean causation, especially at Griffey's advanced age. If the knee has really been that big of a problem, perhaps Griffey can bounce back more than almost anyone (including myself) thinks he can.
• How good is Franklin Gutierrez? As big as Guti's 2009 campaign was, 2010 is in some ways even bigger. He established that he is a good player, but how good? It's easy to look at his breakout season, and assume he will regress down towards his career rates in 2010. That's okay if that happens, but I'm just going to throw this out there: Guti finally got a chance to play every day. He flashed some serious power at times in 2009. The M's want to see more of that, along with more patience. They've seen enough of both out of Guti in spring training to toy around with hitting him third. What if he sticks in the third spot, and hits around 25 home runs? That would put him close to 100 RBIs, if not over. Combine that with a decent batting average, improved on-base percentage, elite defense (and the newfound love for defense in the media), and a pennant run by the M's, and Franklin Gutierrez might get some MVP consideration.

The 2009 Mariners befuddled many experts, and just as people started to pick out what was skill from luck, the roster changed drastically. The 2010 team has tons of new faces, and more than its fair share of question marks. Combine questions with a poor spring training, and it is not surprising that the M's have gone from a novel pick to do great things, to an overrated posse with obvious holes.

For me, the questions remain unanswered. About the only thing I am sure of is that this team will score some more runs. How many more though? Will the pitching and defense stay just as good too?

I don't know how good this team is, but I think guys like Franklin Gutierrez, Casey Kotchman, Milton Bradley, Erik Bedard, Ian Snell, and David Aardsma will go a long ways toward determining this team's fate. I just listed a quarter of the roster, and that's the point. Turn anywhere on this team, and there is a looming question mark. No matter how much the roster is analyzed, those answers won't come until the season starts to unfold.

Hopefully the answers are more good than bad.

M's In the 2000s: A Series of Fun Facts

Everyone has some sort of decade in review of their own. Time to add mine to the masses. Staying true to this blog's title, this post is a true Mariners musing. Here is a review of the decade that was for the Seattle Mariners, in a series of fun facts:

• Average regular season record (rounded to the nearest win) in the decade: 84-78
• 9-10 record in postseason games in the decade
• Three general managers and five managers in the decade
• Two Rookies of the Year (Kazuhiro Sasaki in 2000, and Ichiro in 2001)
• One MVP (Ichiro in 2001)
• One Manager of the Year (Lou Piniella in 2001)
• One All-Star Game hosted (2001)
• No Cy Young awards or World Championships

Here are some fun facts about the hitters:

• Ichiro played the most games (1,426). Raul Ibanez played the second most (847).
• Ichiro had the most hits of any Mariner in the decade with 2,030. Not a big surprise. What's incredible is that he had almost 400 more than #2 and #3 combined.
• Ichiro had more intentional walks (142) than #2 through #4 combined (130)
• Ichiro had more triples (68) than #2 through #5 combined (67)
• Ichiro had more steals (341) than #2 through #5 combined (325)
• Ichiro also led the team in at-bats, plate appearances, runs, doubles, and hit-by-pitches
• Most RBIs in the decade? That's Ichiro too, with 515.
• Bret Boone hit more home runs than any other Mariner in the decade (127)
• Dan Wilson had more sacrifice hits (a.k.a. successful bunts) than any other Mariner (37)
• Mike Cameron struck out the most times (601)
• John Olerud drew the most walks (418), had the most sacrifice flies (36), and grounded into the most double plays (83)

The pitchers aren't quite as fun to look at as the hitters. Their biggest problem is that none of them are Ichiro:

• Jamie Moyer had the most wins (93), complete games (10), and innings pitched (1,371.1)
• Arthur Rhodes made the most pitching appearances (312)
• Aaron Sele pitched more complete game shutouts (4) than any other M's starter this decade
• Kazuhiro Sasaki notched the most saves (129), though J.J. Putz finished the most games (207)
• Felix Hernandez struck out more batters (810) and threw more wild pitches (46) than any other Mariner
• Ryan Franklin balked the most (six times)

Finally, my personal favorite, which is hard to believe but true...

• Ken Griffey Jr. started and ended the decade a Seattle Mariner

Weren't those fun? They were definitely facts.

Ichiro Does It Again For The First Time

We needed some reason to wait out all the rain in Texas. Seriously, since when does it rain for days on end deep in the heart of Texas? Alas, not only did the M's win their first series in Arlington since 2006, but Ichiro made history. He got his 200th hit this season, as he always does, literally. Nine seasons in the majors, nine 200-hit campaigns. Nobody has ever done that.

Nobody.

Ty Cobb didn't do it.

Pete Rose didn't do it.

Nobody.

This isn't something remarkable because Ichiro came over from Japan and did it. I repeat, no baseball player has ever collected nine straight 200-hit seasons. Rattle off any of Ken Griffey Jr.'s, Randy Johnson's, or any M's player's career accomplishments, and they don't include something the game has never seen before. That is, until tonight, with a little dribbler that Ichiro beat out.

Ichiro's 200th hit of 2009 was the 453rd infield hit of his MLB career. Let that sink in for a second. Ichiro debuted in the majors at 27 years old. Considering how great his rookie season was, we can only imagine what could have been if Ichiro had signed with the Mariners as an up-and-coming 18-year-old prospect. He could be on pace for over 1,000 infield hits in his career.

What we are witnessing right now is more than special enough though. Just this year, Ichiro surpassed 3,000 career hits, 2,000 MLB hits, and now notched 200-hit season number 9 - in a row, because 9 all by itself just isn't impressive enough.

It is difficult to put Ichiro into any sort of historical perspective. He is, essentially, a slap-hitter extraordinaire. His approach to hitting was the preferred method until about 1920 or so, when Babe Ruth started bludgeoning baseballs new lengths, and accumulating unfathomable home run totals. Since Ruth, anyone with the power to hit the ball out of the ballpark on a consistent basis has been encouraged to tune their game towards power.

Slap-hitting didn't leave the major leagues with Babe Ruth. It left the spotlight though. Ty Cobb was universally considered the best player ever to play the game before Ruth. Debate ensued for decades after both players retired, largely fueled by their drastically different hitting styles. Now, the debate includes legends like Ted Williams and Willie Mays, both players with over 500 career home runs.

Baseball isn't devoid of great slap-hitters since Ty Cobb. Pete Rose and Rod Carew come to mind. Still, take a look at the hitters most comparable to Ichiro according to Baseball Reference. It is a hodgepodge of players that mostly played before World War II. There are some notable contemporary ballplayers in the mix, such as Kenny Lofton and Ken Griffey Sr., but Ichiro plays a throw-back style of game as good as any of the old-timers.

Yet, at the same time, Ichiro is as new-age as they come. He is the first position player from Japan to ever play in the major leagues. He has his first name stitched on the back of his uniform. He's not exactly the type of guy that rubs a little dirt in his bare hands, spits a wad of tobacco juice out of his cheek, and digs in at the plate. He has his own clothing line back in Japan, after all. Ichiro maintains an unquestionably modern persona, so much so it masks his old-style game. It only adds to Ichiro's mystique and complexity.

Ichiro is a hall-of-famer. Just how great is he though? 3,000 MLB hits would be highly impressive. He basically would have to average 200 hits a season until he is 40 to reach that. It seems unlikely, but this is a man that has put together nine straight 200-hit seasons, and is putting together a season comparable to his rookie one at 35 years old. There is Ichiro's defense too, which I haven't even touched on at all. That's certainly part of what makes him so great.

There is the pressure Ichiro plays under too. When asked how he feels when he breaks a record, he said, "When I break a record I never feel satisfaction and I feel that is from the expectation from Japan, I strongly feel the expectation from Japan. It kind of, (pause) my records are things I feel that I feel the Japanese in Japan feel I must have. I always want to feel satisfaction but whenever I accomplish a record I only feel relief. It is not allowed for me to not accomplish this."

Ichiro is one of a kind. Purely from a cold, hard, statistical standpoint, I think his offensive impact is overrated. His OPS is always good, but not great. His batting average is consistently great, but his on-base percentage is only good because he is so aggressive. I thought re-signing Ichiro to the big deal he got was a bad decision, especially with his age.

However, at this point, there is no denying Ichiro's greatness. The more I watch him, the more I'm convinced he is the closest thing to Ty Cobb that baseball has seen in the past century. However, Cobb never had to deal with the culture shock that Ichiro did, the stigma that Japanese position players are not MLB caliber, or the pressure from an entire nation that comes with breaking a stigma. All of that's old news now because of how well Ichiro has done, but it is still worth mentioning. The fact that it is old news says plenty about Ichiro.

Comparisons are hard with Ichiro because there simply is no comparison. He has carried the high expectations of a nation with remarkable ease and acumen. He has brought a host of old players to life, and forced us to blow the dust off of long-standing records. He has been the one and only Ichiro.

Pelekoudas Assessing

John McLaren getting fired is news, but some of Lee Pelekoudas's comments when fielding questions were more interesting. In particular, he made it clear that he will be assessing players before the trading deadline to figure out how valuable they are to the team. Lee likely has particular players in mind, but who? He will never say, but I have a few guesses:

• Kenji Johjima - It looks like he is going to play some first base, especially once Richie Sexson is gone. He is the first guy I thought of when I heard Lee's comment about assessing players before the deadline. Given his big contract and Japanese ties, I don't think the Mariners would cut him loose. But, the team finally is making a legitimate commitment to Jeff Clement, so Kenji's future with the team may be at first.
• Raul Ibanez - Raul should be a known commodity to Pelekoudas, but his contract expires at the end of the year, and this year is now all about preparing for 2009. I think Lee will be keeping a closer eye on Raul to figure out if that big slump he had earlier this year was a fluke, or a harbinger of something bigger. If he concludes that Raul is not part of the 2009 plans, Raul should have value to a number of teams at the deadline.
• Miguel Batista - He pretty much flamed out as a starter this year, but Pelekoudas is probably seeing if he can fill a role as a reliever for the remainder of his contract. With a season and a half left on the deal, he would be more than a rent-a-player for a contender at the deadline...which in Batista's case probably hurts his trade value.
• Adrian Beltre - There have been enough rumors about Beltre deals over the past few years for me to believe other teams actually have inquired about him. Though I doubt the Mariners have ever seriously considered trading him, he is making a bunch of money and not hitting as well as expected when he was signed. Adrian seems to heat up with the weather, and perhaps Lee is waiting to see if he does. However, between Beltre's hand and contract, I strongly doubt any deal will come close to fruition this year.
• Ichiro - Rumors persist that Ichiro has fallen out of favor in the clubhouse, but I would be looking to trade him based on production. Granted, he is the current face of the franchise, and moving him would be controversial, but there are reasons to assess his value. He is perceived as one of baseball's brightest stars, and maybe he is from a marketing standpoint, but he has not been on the field this year. Honestly, he has always been overrated as a player after his rookie season, and he is showing signs this year that he may be aging. Ichiro's trade value is only going to diminish as time goes on, and if a contending team is looking to make a splash, Ichiro could be their guy. Of all the players on the Mariners right now, Ichiro is the most likely to net a lop-sided package in the Mariners favor, even with his huge contract. If Pelekoudas concludes that age is catching up with Ichiro, maybe Lee will strongly consider a trade.

Nobody really knows what Lee Pelekoudas will do as general manager, but only a couple days in he is off to quite the start. He seems to be decisive, and I am sure he will come to conclusions on whatever players he is assessing. What Pelekoudas does after fully assessing the mess he has may lead to even more upheaval.

Mariners First Half Review

Nobody can be disappointed with the first half the Mariners just turned in. Between snowouts, struggles at the back end of the rotation (to put it lightly), injuries to Felix and several bullpen arms, and the stunning resignation of Mike Hargrove, the first half wasn't particularly easy. Yet somehow, through all that, the Mariners find themselves only two and a half games behind the Angels for the AL West lead. The team should get a collective pat on the back for a job well done, and that's largely what this post is going to be. Using my hitter and pitcher rating formulas, I have rated every player who has appeared for the Mariners this season. They are listed in order from best to worst.

Ichiro (95) - What more is there to say? Ichiro is at it again. Despite all the great seasons he has had, this is arguably his finest offensively, and defensively he is amazing. I know Ichiro has six gold gloves, but he's not getting the credit he deserves this year. He's right there with Ken Griffey Jr. and Mike Cameron in their best years in Seattle. Really, he is that good. If the M's get into the playoffs, only Magglio Ordonez can stop Ichiro from being the AL MVP.

Jamie Burke (88) - Once again, what more is there to say? In limited action, Burke has been sensational. To properly estimate Burke's value I should include AAA and/or MLB at-bats from previous years (which would knock his rating down considerably), but this is the M's first-half review and this is what he has done when he has played. I hope McLaren plays Burke a little more and gives Kenji more rest. It wouldn't hurt Kenji, and thanks to Burke it won't hurt the M's.

J.J. Putz (85/95) - J.J.'s "true" value is an 85, but an average reliever is a 65 instead of a 75. So, basically, Putz in his role is a 95, and there is no better closer in baseball. I never thought he could live up to last year, but he might be even better. Make no mistake, Putz is the best closer in Mariners history, and there is nobody else in baseball I'd rather hand the ball to in the ninth inning right now.

George Sherrill (84/94) - J.J. has turned games into eight-inning affairs, and George Sherrill has turned them into seven-inning ones. Hargrove used him pretty much solely against lefties, and admittedly that is tempting because nobody is tougher on lefties in all of baseball than him. However, it looks like McLaren knows that George is also pretty darn effective against righties too. Hideki Okajima got the All-Star nod, but Sherrill was just as deserving. Sherrill and Putz have re-captured the Rhodes-Nelson-Sasaki magic, if not taken it a step further.

Jarrod Washburn (83) - Rather quietly, Washburn is putting together a really good year. On a starting staff that's had consistency issues, Jarrod has really been a rock. He's no ace, but he's going to go six innings and keep the team in the game. Washburn has really earned his money this year, and should get a little more credit for the M's success this year than he has.

Felix Hernandez (80) - Felix's rating is adjusted to reflect his time on the DL, and with no adjustment it would've been 86. It's really amazing how off his game he can be and still end up being a really good pitcher. Felix looks like he has regained his form, and he could be heading for a monster second half.

Ben Broussard (79) - Relegated to the bench by Hargrove but called upon when injuries mounted, Broussard has been another real bright spot on the ball club. I hope McLaren gets Ben on the field more, because he's a more than adequate fill-in for Ibanez, Guillen, or Sexson.

Kenji Johjima (78) - Kenji has really trailed off in the last month, but he still had a great first half, especially for a catcher. I think a little more rest would be good for him, and luckily the M's have a surprisingly great back-up in Jamie Burke.

Adrian Beltre (78) - Beltre was red-hot as the break hit, and with the M's he has tended to put up much better numbers in the second half. This is the best first half he has had since being a Dodger, and it will be interesting to see if his surge continues.

Jose Guillen (77) - The Mariners took a risk when they signed this guy, but so far it could not have turned out any better. Guillen's range in right field leaves much to be desired, but he has provided some needed punch to the lineup.

Jose Vidro (75) - Vidro doesn't supply any power, but he does still know how to hit. He's not the most inspiring DH, but thanks to him the position is no longer the black hole that it was the last couple years.

Cha Seung Baek (74) - Baek's ERA doesn't show it, but he was really a solid starter for the M's. His rating would have been higher if not for going on the DL too. Baek is no ace, but he stepped up when Weaver was horrible and Felix went down with the arm injury. Baek also deserves more credit for the M's first half success than he has received.

Raul Ibanez (74) - After a career year, it should have been expected that Ibanez would regress some, but not this much. He's been a little banged up the whole year, but seems to be getting healthier, and with improved health his power seems to be returning. The offense will be even better if Raul can return to his career averages in the second half. Even if he duplicates his first half though, he's still serviceable.

Jose Lopez (73) - Jose's production doesn't match his talent, and it's because he still isn't very selective at the plate. He's slowly improving, but until he gets better this is about what to expect.

Eric O'Flaherty (73/83) - The whole bullpen is filled with unsung heroes, and O'Flaherty is another one of them. I thought he needed more seasoning in AAA, but he's proven me wrong. He's tough on lefties, but can also be stretched out and go multiple innings. His emergence has provided depth in the bullpen that wasn't expected.

Miguel Batista (73) - He isn't worth the money, but he continues to get better as the season wears on. He's now a consistent bet to pitch six innings and keep the M's in the game.

Ryan Rowland-Smith (70/80) - Surprised to see this guy so high? Granted, the vast majority of his innings are with the Rainiers this year, so this rating is pretty much a reflection of his AAA stats adjusted. However, The Hyphenated One has looked good in the limited chances he has had, and I hope the M's strongly consider keeping him in the bullpen for the remainder of the year. A trio of lefties like Rowland-Smith, O'Flaherty, and Sherrill could give the team a huge advantage.

Sean Green (69/79) - I also included Green's AAA numbers for his rating, and adjusted it accordingly. However, he has seen extended action with the Mariners this year and has forced himself into later roles thanks to the job he has done. His ERA is deceptive because it should be higher, but that doesn't take away from the really good job he has done.

Brandon Morrow (68/78) - I'm interested to see what the ballclub does with Brandon as other pitchers get healthy. He probably does have the best stuff of anyone down in the bullpen, but he's easily got the worst command. It all adds up to about an average reliever right now, though as he learns to harness his stuff he'll really be something. Personally, I would send Morrow down once Mark Lowe is healthy and start to develop him into a starter.

Yuniesky Betancourt (68) - Of the position players, Betancourt is the biggest disappoint this side of Richie Sexson. He's young though, and he was in a slump at the plate to end the first half. By the end of the year, I think his throwing problems will be mostly hammered out, and his batting average will be approaching .300.

Richie Sexson (67) - Here's the biggest disappointment on the team, and even Richie is showing signs of life. He's still got his power, and if he can have a second half as good as last year's, this offense could be really dangerous. I'm not sure he will rebound, but there is reason to believe he will.

Julio Mateo (64/74) - At this point, Mateo's adjusted AAA numbers have more weight than what he has done with the Mariners. It looked like Seattle had a hard decision with what to do with him after his assault charge, but thanks to the emergence of so many guys in the bullpen he shouldn't be with the team right now, even if he did not have any legal troubles.

Jeff Weaver (62) - How can Weaver's first half be summed up with one rating? Really, it can't, but given his horrendous start it's hard to fathom that his rating is even this good. I really have to give the M's credit for sticking with him.

Willie Bloomquist (62) - Willie's .272 batting average and two homers are much nicer to look at, but he's still a bench player, though a valuable one thanks to his versatility.

Jon Huber (62/72) - The focus is on Ramirez and Lowe as they rehab, but Huber's close to returning too. He's likely to stay in AAA once completely healthy, but he's another solid option to call up if someone gets injured.

Sean White (58/68) - White's injury has dampened his rating some, but at this point he shouldn't be with the team once he's healthy. The only problem is he'll have to be returned to the Braves if not put back in the bullpen. Maybe Bill Bavasi can go to the Braves and work out a "trade" that allows the Mariners to send White to Tacoma.

Horacio Ramirez (57) - The Ho-Ram era has been far from glorious, but he's a better option than Feierabend as the fifth starter. Plus, he has been much better than this over his career, so there is reason to believe that he can bolster the rotation in the second half.

Ryan Feierabend (51) - Speaking of Feierabend, here he is. His adjusted AAA numbers are factored in for his rating too, which really works in his favor thanks to some really rough outings he has had recently. The bottom is that he's just not ready right now, no matter how much departed manager Mike Hargrove likes his competitiveness and grit.

Chris Reitsma (50/60) - This isn't a very fair rating thanks to two DL stints, and trying to pitch through arm problems. Chris is another candidate to do much better in the second half, and I'm glad McLaren has decided to make him the primary set-up guy instead of Morrow.

Jason Davis (49/59) - Davis just got DFA'd, so the chances of him ever wearing a Mariner uniform again are pretty low. He was ineffectively wild in his brief Seattle tenure, but he did eat up some innings, which was worth something with how the first half schedule unfolded.

Jake Woods (46/56) - Woods was up at the beginning of the year for a little bit, and he's a far cry from what he was last year. He may get called up with the expanded rosters in September, but he shouldn't be before that.

Jason Ellison (45) - This isn't a fair rating at all since the guy never gets to hit, but maybe he'll get a few more opportunities with McLaren. Mac is already using him as a defensive replacement more, which is good to see. Ellison does get big props for sprinting in with his fists clenched to defend Ichiro from Joe Blanton yesterday. Plus, Ellison and Willie Bloomquist were great friends in high school, so it's nice that the two of them can keep each other entertained while they sit around.

It's nice to write about a bunch of bright spots and pleasant surprises. Here's hoping that the second half is just as good, if not better.