MLB Projected Standings

No April Fool's post for me. My prank was not posting through February and March. I got all you folks that kept checking in!

I am bringing back a regular post I have done in years past, though it has been several years now. Every Friday I aim to deliver MLB projected standings with a bit of commentary. It is a fun post to put together and a nice way for me to stay in touch with happenings around baseball. I hope it is at least as much fun to read. Today's the day to roll out the first projection because next Friday we will have the first update with actual games in the books!

The Model

(skip if you want to get straight to the preseason predictions)

My model takes a team's existing record and tacks on wins and losses based on a projection for how they will do the rest of the season. So, in this preseason run of the projections, the wins and losses are based entirely on the projection. However, at the end of the season, the model will be completely based on a team's existing record because there will be no remaining games to project. So, over the course of the season, the projection becomes gradually less and less weighted.

Projecting a team's remaining games is driven by two major components: how good the team is and how good their opponents are. Estimates of team talent are taken from Fangraph's rest of season (RoS) WAR projections for teams. WAR is the most encompassing stat of all skills available, so I use it in the model.

To convert WAR into an expected win percentage, I first find the average WAR total for a team in baseball and treat that as a .500 winning percentage. This should make sense as a perfectly average WAR would suggest a perfectly average team that wins and loses the exact same amount of games. Then I compare a team's actual WAR total to the average WAR total. If a team's WAR total is, say, 10 larger than the average WAR, then we would expect that team to be 10 wins above .500. Each team's WAR total is compared to the average WAR in this manner until we obtain expected winning percentage for every team.

WAR aims to eliminate context as much as possible, but for projecting records the context is important. For instance, the Cubs on paper appear to be a really good team, so they would be expected to win more games than an average team. However, not only do the Cubs have the good fortune of being better than many (or maybe all) of their opponents, they also never have to face themselves. In general, this means that good teams not only should perform better against average competition, but they also tend to play "softer" schedules because their schedules do not include themselves. Similarly, bad teams often play "tougher" schedules because they do not get to play themselves.

My model incorporates the strength of divisional opponents, the interleague division a team faces, and then the strength of opponents in the other divisions intraleague proportionally to the number of games a team plays each of these major groups within their schedule. The strength of these groups is determined by the projected WAR total of teams, based on the process mentioned before. It should be noted that WAR totals will change as we get more data on individual players during the season, and so this model indirectly incorporates breakout performances, sudden declines, significant injuries, and major trades.

Finally, a team's expected winning percentage is increased or decreased proportionally according to the strength of their remaining schedule. So, if a team is expected to face exactly .500 opponents, then their expected win percentage does not move at all. However, if they face weaker opponents, then their winning percentage is bumped up. Similarly, stronger opponents nudge it down. All of these conversions are done proportionally so that the system remains closed - in other words, the structure of the model guarantees that summing all of the wins and losses together will come up with an exact .500 record for all of baseball. This is important since every game must have both a winner and a loser.

Once a team has a projected win percentage it is multiplied by the number of games remaining in their schedule to figure out how many projected wins remain. Those are tacked on to the games they have already won to obtain their projected win total. The projected loss total is simply 162 (all the games in a season) minus their projected win total.

This is the one time I will dive in with details about how the model works. In future weeks I will get straight to the results. Transparency with the model is important though, and I even see several places I could dig further into how the model works. Anyway...

MLB Projected Standings, Preseason

AL WEST	AL CENTRAL	AL EAST
Astros, 85-77, 0 GB	Indians, 85-77, 0 GB	Red Sox, 84-78, 0 GB
Mariners, 80-82, 5 GB	White Sox, 81-81, 4 GB	Yankees, 83-79, 1 GB
Angels, 80-82, 5 GB	Tigers, 80-82, 5 GB	Blue Jays, 82-80, 2 GB
Rangers, 79-83, 6 GB	Twins, 80-82, 5 GB	Rays, 80-82, 4 GB
Athletics, 79-83, 6 GB	Royals, 79-83, 6 GB	Orioles, 80-82, 4 GB
.
NL WEST	NL CENTRAL	NL EAST
Dodgers, 89-73, 0 GB	Cubs, 89-73, 0 GB	Mets, 88-74, 0 GB
Giants, 85-77, 4 GB	Cardinals, 84-78, 5 GB	Nationals, 86-76, 2 GB
Diamondbacks, 79-83, 10 GB	Pirates, 83-79, 6 GB	Marlins, 80-82, 8 GB
Padres, 76-86, 13 GB	Reds, 77-85, 12 GB	Braves, 73-89, 15 GB
Rockies, 76-86, 13 GB	Brewers, 75-87, 14 GB	Phillies, 72-90, 16 GB

Wild card play-in games: Blue Jays at Yankees, Giants at Nationals

ALDS match-ups: play-in vs. Indians, Red Sox vs. Astros

NLDS match-ups: play-in vs. Cubs, Mets vs. Dodgers

Some musings:

• Preseason projections when using WAR always look a little bunched up. It's a result of regression to the mean. Basically by definition playoff teams exceed expectations in statistical models.
• With that said, the American League looks especially bunched up again this year. If that was simply a result of the projection system than the NL would be similarly bunched, but it isn't. The AL East in particular looks incredibly wide open.
• The National League has a stratified look with rather clear "first" and "second" divisions. Only the Marlins and Diamondbacks do not fall neatly into one of the two categories.
• The Astros, Indians, Dodgers, and Cubs should all be considered legitimate favorites to win their divisions. None of them are so much beyond their divisional opponents to say they are prohibitive favorites though.
• The Indians being frontrunners should probably be flagged with an asterisk. The Royals and WAR do not get along. They have looked like a middling team on paper the last two years but have back-to-back World Series with a championship to show for it. It's possible that the Royals are lucky, but the gap between their actual results and projections is noteworthy, and has been for two years now. Consider me skeptical of their projection this year too.

Next Friday we will find out how much movement only a few games make, even ones supposedly less meaningful early in the season.

Minor Moves

The best part of the Seahawks loss to the Panthers yesterday is the relief I have knowing that it's socially acceptable in this region to pour more energy into the Mariners than any other team at the moment. Therefore, it is also socially acceptable (or at least closer to socially acceptable) to talk about minor league transactions!

I have a soft spot for minor league transactions. There are so many of them and they get almost no coverage, probably because they rarely amount to anything at the MLB level. In fact, most moves are for bolstering minor league depth with no eye towards the MLB roster. Still, as someone who owns a mini season ticket package to the Rainiers, these moves impact my viewing pleasure of baseball arguably more than most other moves. Here is a recap of what the Mariners have done at the minor league level so far this offseason, at least in the upper levels. I will limit myself to players with AA and AAA experience:

Lost in free agency:

• 1B Ji-Man Choi (Angels) - I liked Choi for years as a darkhorse prospect. He lacked power but had solid on-base and hitting skills across every level he played. Unfortunately, he did not play much, thanks to things like broken legs and drug suspensions. He will likely roll through Tacoma as a member of the Salt Lake Bees, and might see some time in the majors if things go right for him.
• LHP Anthony Fernandez (Tigers) - Fernandez was never noted for his arm strength, but he profiled as the classic "crafty lefty." He has an array of pitches, none of them elite, but all decent enough with good command. I don't know how much arm power he has left after major arm surgery though. He is probably minor league depth, but a spacious park like Comerica could be a decent landing spot for him if injuries accumulate on the Detroit staff and he somehow finds himself in the majors.
• 1B/3B Jordy Lara (Braves) - Lara has power, but it comes with contact and defense concerns. In most places I would assume he is minor league depth, but the Braves are in a fairly substantial rebuild. This is one of the few places I could imagine him getting some playing time just in case he finds a way to make enough contact to take advantage of his power.
• LHP Lucas Luetge (Angels) - The former Rule 5 draft pick that posted a shockingly great start to his MLB career slowly sunk into AAA depth. He likely remains that for the Angels, but given his MLB experience he is likely seen as a guy that could be called upon in a pinch.
• RHP J.C. Ramirez (Reds) - Ramirez spent time in the majors last year, and dials up a fastball in the mid to upper 90s. The Reds are rebuilding so he has a good chance to log some innings in the majors this year. The arm has never been the question. Everything else is though.
• RHP Chien-Ming Wang (Royals) - Wang, now 35 years old, is becoming the AAA version of Bartolo Colon. He simply soldiers on! Also, since the Royals are affiliated with Omaha, he could pitch in Tacoma this year. I don't see any way Wang cracks the Royals staff at any point this year, but who knows? I don't know what would be a more entertaining story - Wang getting back to the majors, or building a small career in AAA without any MLB appearances.

Still free agents:

I can't believe I actually found a Leury Bonilla picture.
(Joel Dinda, Wikimedia Commons)

• UT Leury Bonilla - Bonilla is the ultimate utility player. Frankly, his flexibility probably earned him at least half of his career. He played the infield mostly, but the most noteworthy part of his career are his rather ludicrous 11 pitching appearances in the minors as a position player. Perhaps more amazing is his career 1-0 record. I will forever love Leury Bonilla because I was at his victory. He was the first (and is still the only) position player I have seen pitch in person, which was one of the highest desires on my baseball bucket list. He came in during the 17th inning of a tie ballgame because the Rainiers were out of other options. Incredibly, Bonilla retired the side in order and even STRUCK OUT a batter with a mix that included a BREAKING BALL. It was a fairly slurvy, tumbling breaking ball, but it was enough to be devastating when it comes from the hand of a third baseman at 12:45am. Bonilla's pitching performance in the wee hours of that August morning stands as one of the most memorable and wonderful innings I have ever watched in person. The win was the cherry on top. I will always have a soft spot for Leury Bonilla because he gave me this memory.
• LHP Jimmy Gillheeney - I don't have a similarly captivating story about Gillheeney. He's a softer-tossing lefy with a big, looping curveball.

New acquisitions:

• OF Mike Baxter - Baxter is a scrappy spare outfielder. He brings 232 games worth of MLB experience to the Mariners, along with a decent batting eye. If all goes right he will stay in Tacoma the whole year, though he could conceivably help the Mariners survive a litany of outfield injuries.
• RHP Casey Coleman - Coleman is an undersized right-hander with limited control on the mound and stuff that plays up quite a bit better in the bullpen. I would assume he slots into Tacoma's bullpen as a middle reliever but time will tell. He has a fair amount of MLB experience but none of his stints have gone tremendously well.
• INF Benji Gonzalez - Gonzalez is a small, pesky switch-hitter with little power to speak of. He gets by with a decent eye at the plate. It's hard to imagine him playing anywhere beyond Tacoma, though at only 26 years old perhaps he still develops further.
• INF Ed Lucas - Lucas is no spring chicken at 33 years old. That's rather old for a minor league free agent. He flashes an advanced eye in AAA, though it has not followed him to the MLB level in the looks he has received. Lucas could prove to be a very good infielder for the Rainiers in 2016 and helps build up some emergency depth in the Mariners system in case injuries pile up at the MLB level.
• LHP Brad Mills - Mills has bounced around quite a bit the last few years as a pitcher intriguing enough to pick up but not good enough to hang on to. He is a lefty with some strikeout potential but control and command issues. It will be interesting to see if the M's make him rotation depth in Tacoma or slot him in the bullpen, where he just might be able to serve as MLB depth.
• RHP Blake Parker - Parker is a surprisingly intriguing acquisition. He barely pitched at all last year, but before that racked up some impressive numbers in AAA and the majors. It's easy to see him as a contributor in the Mariners bullpen, assuming he is healthy and recovered. That's a significant assumption, but as a minor league signee there is no risk involved here. I will be watching him closely early on.
• RHP Donn Roach - Roach has some MLB experience but for all intents and purposes looks like a solid veteran signed to soak up some innings in Tacoma. He likely slots into the Rainiers rotation as a capable arm that rarely dazzles but hopefully keeps the team in ballgames.

Few to none of these players are going to play in the majors next year, much less make an impact in the majors. No individual loss or acquisition on this list is significant. With that said, the signees are different than the players the Mariners let walk away. The new acquisitions are types of players that the Zduriencik regime generally ignored, for better or worse. Many of the new players are not all that "toolsy," but they are polished. They know how to maximize what skills they have. The hitters tend to have good plate discipline, and the pitchers tend to know how to navigate a handful of innings somewhat capably at the AAA level (instead of having big arms with little to no command). This will likely make for a better overall Rainiers squad, for whatever that is worth.

More significantly, these minor moves further illuminate the differences between Zduriencik and Dipoto. There are tons of minor league free agents that are not appreciably more or less talented than one another. So, teams differentiate based on particular traits that they prefer. Zduriencik tended to prefer raw tools, especially with pitchers. Dipoto is more interested in plate discipline and command. This is not surprising given Dipoto's public comments but it's good to see the integrity of his vision seeping into minor league moves.

Hall of Fame Eve

not this year, but one year...maybe, hopefully

The Baseball Writers Association of America (BBWAA) announced the Hall of Fame class of 2016 tomorrow afternoon. I will be teaching when the inductees are formally announced. I may or may not post tomorrow depending on how interesting the results are.

Honestly, I probably will post something tomorrow. The early indications suggest a very interesting vote.

Let's start close to home with the story that I, personally, thought would not be a story.

Ken Griffey Jr. is going to make it into the Hall of Fame. That has been unofficially known for years, and will be made official tomorrow. However, as of this evening, Griffey is listed on all the publicly disclosed ballots.* Nobody has ever been a unanimous hall-of-famer and Tom Seaver's record percentage might be in reach. We won't know how historic Griffey's vote total is until the final voting is officially revealed.

*Side note: I love how many ballots get leaked publicly. I think it increases intrigue around the Hall of Fame voting. The BBWAA has accidentally stumbled into a beautiful system that gives us a chance to make educated guesses on Hall of Fame voting while still not knowing final answers until the official reveal.

Both Jeff Bagwell and Tim Raines project to be right on the razor edge for enshrinement this year. Their vote totals hover near the 75% threshold as of now, but both also exhibited some of the largest gaps in voting patterns between public and secret ballots. Their percentages will almost assuredly go down, and if the splits from last year hold true, their percentages should sink enough to keep both out of the Hall of Fame another year.

However, there is a pretty strong reason to believe that secret ballot voting patterns will change noticeably this year. The BBWAA amended their rules for who gets to vote and essentially did not mail out ballots to 100 old-time writers who have not covered the sport for over a decade.

It's impossible to say exactly how this will change voting, but the candidacy of Bagwell depends on wading into the murky waters of the PED "era" and differentiating within the large cloud of suspicion and shame that sits over that time in baseball history. The candidacy or Raines depends on advanced analytics much more than traditional statistics. Neither of these topics seem to be the types of things that a writer whom stopped covering baseball years ago would go to incredible effort to investigate and understand. This might go a long way towards explaining the huge gaps between the public and private voting patterns for Bagwell and Raines too, given that one of the largest motivators for revealing Hall of Fame ballots is through blog posts published for the teams, papers, and websites that active reporters write for.

It is vitally important, at least in my eyes, that Bagwell and Raines get in sooner rather than later. Edgar Martinez is not getting in this year, but he has gained more votes among returners to the ballot than anybody else, which is saying something because a handful of players are poised to make significant strides. My hypothesis is that the historically large class of 2015 helped clear out some needed ballot spaces. In other words, I think a number of the votes Edgar will pick up this year come from people who have always considered Edgar a hall of famer but squeezed him off the ballot in favor of others. Another historically large class would help clear the ballot further and get the BBWAA members back to a point where they are simply asking themselves if a player is a Hall of Famer or not, instead of also feeling pressure to rank who deserves a vote or not.

Tomorrow will be a significant day in Mariners history no matter the outcome of the 2016 Hall of Fame vote. The only question is how significant. Ken Griffey Jr. will become the first player in the Hall of Fame displaying a Mariners cap. As much as I love Dave Neihaus and Randy Johnson, the Hall of Fame is about the players and those caps. The Mariners become a little more concrete and everlasting once that trident gets chiseled on a Cooperstown plaque, and that will finally happen tomorrow. It will be a great moment in Mariners history that has been a long time coming.

How special will that moment be? Will it also be historic within the grand context of Hall of Fame voting? It very well could be. And how many others will join Griffey in the class of 2016? There is a real chance that the Hall elects another quartet, which would be good news for Edgar's continued campaign.