Mariners Order Another Round, Pitch in a Lefty Too

Tom Wilhelmsen, the Bartender

The Mariners added two new arms after another frustrating loss last night - though one of the arms is a very familiar face. They signed RHP Tom Wilhelmsen off the free agent market, and acquired LHP Wade LeBlanc from the Blue Jays for a player to be named later or cash considerations.

Wilhelmsen will be in Detroit, but that's probably about it. Bob Dutton has all the gory roster rule details, but long story short Wilhelmsen must go through waivers to get sent down to Tacoma. He is a safe bet to pass through waivers, and once he does he will go down and open up a spot for a new pitcher on Friday, conveniently when the M's need a starter to cover for Taijuan Walker's bum heel. That starter seems likely to be LeBlanc.

Let's start with The Bartender. He was last seen in Safeco wielding a lethal power fastball, knee-buckling curve ball combination. Sometimes he struggled to throw the combination for strikes, but he had enough command to be a solid reliever overall with spectacular hot stretches. Wilhelmsen would easily be a bullpen upgrade if he was the pitcher last seen in Mariners blue.

The problem is that Wilhelmsen imploded in Texas. He gave up dingers on a quarter of his fly balls. He simply got annihilated every time he toed the rubber. Wilhelmsen's fastball velocity has not dropped much but it might be below whatever threshold allows him to be effective. There is a reason the Rangers cut him loose and that he is likely to pass through waivers. Still, Wilhelmsen has a good arm and a track record of success in Seattle. He's had a couple horrific months after six solid years. There are reasons to think this move could work out, and it comes at virtually no risk anyway.

Wade LeBlanc

LeBlanc is new to the Mariners but not new to Jerry DiPoto. He acquired LeBlanc as the Angels GM and now has acquired him again. LeBlanc is hardly a prospect at 31 years old, though he only has 446.2 innings in the majors (about 2 or 3 seasons worth). LeBlanc is a "pitchability" lefty, meaning he does not throw all that hard but makes do with command and deception. In fact, pitch f/x data suggests that LeBlanc's fastball sits in the 86-87mph range, which is rather slow by modern MLB standards. However, LeBlanc has never posted disastrous strikeout rates and is enjoying a terrific season in AAA thus far with an ERA under 2.00 as a starter. Still, LeBlanc is the definition of replacement level, though Safeco might do a nice job of hiding his weaknesses.

Frankly, these are moves that only happen when a team is desperate. The Mariners have a critically crippled pitching staff at the moment, one so crippled that nobody can reasonably complain about a lack of depth. They literally have over half of their pitching staff on the DL. These moves are the MLB equivalent of bailing water out of a sinking ship which is unfortunately what the Mariners need to do in the storm they find themselves in. Still, these are the kinds of players that for whatever reason Jack Zduriencik never acquired, and we watched some positions become black holes over the years. These are the kinds of moves the give teams a chance to whether particularly crushing stretches.

Mariners Acquire Zach Lee

Zach Lee

The Mariners made a minor trade of sorts yesterday, in that it involved minor league players who are sort of prospects but sort of not. Jerry Dipoto shipped INF Chris Taylor to the Dodgers for RHP Zach Lee.

The motivation for the move is relatively obvious, at least from the Mariners perspective. The Mariners could really use some starting pitching depth, or pitching depth in general. This is more a function of an inordinate amount of injuries to the pitching staff that leave it dangerously thin than poor planning from the M's front office. Felix Hernandez and Wade Miley are on the DL from the starting rotation, and news just broke that Taijuan Walker is getting an MRI on his foot. In the bullpen Charlie Furbush, Ryan Cook, and Evan Scribner are all yet to make their season debuts. No team suffers that many arm injuries without consequences.

All in all, the Mariners have almost half a pitching staff with significant injury concerns. Furthermore, Jerry Dipoto had to work in the offseason to build pitching depth that was largely ignored and decimated by the end of the Zduriencik era. This is approaching (if not arriving) at a worst-case scenario for how the year could have unfolded for the pitching staff.

So, on some level, Zach Lee fills a need that developed with the way the season unfolded. However, Dipoto announced that Lee will report to AAA Tacoma, meaning he does not fill an immediate need on the 25-man roster.  He also does not fit the profile of a typical stop-gap player. There is a little more to this deal beneath the surface.

Zach Lee, not all that long ago, was an interesting prospect. The Dodgers drafted him in the first round straight out of high school and backed up a Brinks truck to the tune of $5.25 million to sign him away from playing quarterback at LSU. He signed, and the rest is history to some degree. Lee steadily climbed the minor league chain before stalling in AAA where has neither flourished nor floundered. Lee now profiles as a durable innings-eater. He doesn't miss a ton of AAA bats, which suggests he will pitch to even more contact in the majors. However, Lee also does not walk that many batters. One might say he controls the zone. I would sandwich Lee somewhere between Blake Beavan and Doug Fister, for those of us who enjoy comps.

Chris Taylor is sort of a known commodity. I saw him play several times in Tacoma and am sorry to see him go. He has hit too much in AAA to stay as anemic in the majors as he has. Taylor has gap power and just needs to cut down on strikeouts to stick and be a serviceable MLB infielder. He has no amazing tools but relatively few weaknesses as well. Taylor is simply a solid, fundamentally sound baseball player.

This trade is about more than immediate depth though. Zach Lee is almost exactly a year younger than Chris Taylor with about half a season less of MLB experience. Maybe more importantly, only one of his option years is used up. Lee might never become a frontline starter in the M's rotation, but he brings several years of minimal cost-controlled certainty to the team.

If the Mariners really just needed another arm they could have probably found a veteran for cheap. For instance, Mat Latos is in DFA limbo right now after the White Sox removed him from their roster. There were ways to add arms that involved holding on to a guy like Chris Taylor.

So this move isn't just about the injuries to Mariner arms. Zach Lee fits the Dipoto mold. He throws lots of strikes and comes to Seattle with lots of cheap, team-controlled years. I would hazard to guess that Lee has been on the Dipoto's radar for some time but Dipoto was holding out for a better deal that did not involve Chris Taylor. However, the M's current situation might have convinced Dipoto to pull the trigger.

In general, I would rather be the team acquiring a shortstop for a pitcher. However, Lee's extra team-controlled years and the immediate need for pitching depth over infield depth have to be considered. I think the Mariners gave up a better player than they received but they might have acquired the better asset. Lee won't just add depth this season; he adds depth for many seasons to come and he is young enough to still develop a bit.

Minor Moves

The best part of the Seahawks loss to the Panthers yesterday is the relief I have knowing that it's socially acceptable in this region to pour more energy into the Mariners than any other team at the moment. Therefore, it is also socially acceptable (or at least closer to socially acceptable) to talk about minor league transactions!

I have a soft spot for minor league transactions. There are so many of them and they get almost no coverage, probably because they rarely amount to anything at the MLB level. In fact, most moves are for bolstering minor league depth with no eye towards the MLB roster. Still, as someone who owns a mini season ticket package to the Rainiers, these moves impact my viewing pleasure of baseball arguably more than most other moves. Here is a recap of what the Mariners have done at the minor league level so far this offseason, at least in the upper levels. I will limit myself to players with AA and AAA experience:

Lost in free agency:

• 1B Ji-Man Choi (Angels) - I liked Choi for years as a darkhorse prospect. He lacked power but had solid on-base and hitting skills across every level he played. Unfortunately, he did not play much, thanks to things like broken legs and drug suspensions. He will likely roll through Tacoma as a member of the Salt Lake Bees, and might see some time in the majors if things go right for him.
• LHP Anthony Fernandez (Tigers) - Fernandez was never noted for his arm strength, but he profiled as the classic "crafty lefty." He has an array of pitches, none of them elite, but all decent enough with good command. I don't know how much arm power he has left after major arm surgery though. He is probably minor league depth, but a spacious park like Comerica could be a decent landing spot for him if injuries accumulate on the Detroit staff and he somehow finds himself in the majors.
• 1B/3B Jordy Lara (Braves) - Lara has power, but it comes with contact and defense concerns. In most places I would assume he is minor league depth, but the Braves are in a fairly substantial rebuild. This is one of the few places I could imagine him getting some playing time just in case he finds a way to make enough contact to take advantage of his power.
• LHP Lucas Luetge (Angels) - The former Rule 5 draft pick that posted a shockingly great start to his MLB career slowly sunk into AAA depth. He likely remains that for the Angels, but given his MLB experience he is likely seen as a guy that could be called upon in a pinch.
• RHP J.C. Ramirez (Reds) - Ramirez spent time in the majors last year, and dials up a fastball in the mid to upper 90s. The Reds are rebuilding so he has a good chance to log some innings in the majors this year. The arm has never been the question. Everything else is though.
• RHP Chien-Ming Wang (Royals) - Wang, now 35 years old, is becoming the AAA version of Bartolo Colon. He simply soldiers on! Also, since the Royals are affiliated with Omaha, he could pitch in Tacoma this year. I don't see any way Wang cracks the Royals staff at any point this year, but who knows? I don't know what would be a more entertaining story - Wang getting back to the majors, or building a small career in AAA without any MLB appearances.

Still free agents:

I can't believe I actually found a Leury Bonilla picture.
(Joel Dinda, Wikimedia Commons)

• UT Leury Bonilla - Bonilla is the ultimate utility player. Frankly, his flexibility probably earned him at least half of his career. He played the infield mostly, but the most noteworthy part of his career are his rather ludicrous 11 pitching appearances in the minors as a position player. Perhaps more amazing is his career 1-0 record. I will forever love Leury Bonilla because I was at his victory. He was the first (and is still the only) position player I have seen pitch in person, which was one of the highest desires on my baseball bucket list. He came in during the 17th inning of a tie ballgame because the Rainiers were out of other options. Incredibly, Bonilla retired the side in order and even STRUCK OUT a batter with a mix that included a BREAKING BALL. It was a fairly slurvy, tumbling breaking ball, but it was enough to be devastating when it comes from the hand of a third baseman at 12:45am. Bonilla's pitching performance in the wee hours of that August morning stands as one of the most memorable and wonderful innings I have ever watched in person. The win was the cherry on top. I will always have a soft spot for Leury Bonilla because he gave me this memory.
• LHP Jimmy Gillheeney - I don't have a similarly captivating story about Gillheeney. He's a softer-tossing lefy with a big, looping curveball.

New acquisitions:

• OF Mike Baxter - Baxter is a scrappy spare outfielder. He brings 232 games worth of MLB experience to the Mariners, along with a decent batting eye. If all goes right he will stay in Tacoma the whole year, though he could conceivably help the Mariners survive a litany of outfield injuries.
• RHP Casey Coleman - Coleman is an undersized right-hander with limited control on the mound and stuff that plays up quite a bit better in the bullpen. I would assume he slots into Tacoma's bullpen as a middle reliever but time will tell. He has a fair amount of MLB experience but none of his stints have gone tremendously well.
• INF Benji Gonzalez - Gonzalez is a small, pesky switch-hitter with little power to speak of. He gets by with a decent eye at the plate. It's hard to imagine him playing anywhere beyond Tacoma, though at only 26 years old perhaps he still develops further.
• INF Ed Lucas - Lucas is no spring chicken at 33 years old. That's rather old for a minor league free agent. He flashes an advanced eye in AAA, though it has not followed him to the MLB level in the looks he has received. Lucas could prove to be a very good infielder for the Rainiers in 2016 and helps build up some emergency depth in the Mariners system in case injuries pile up at the MLB level.
• LHP Brad Mills - Mills has bounced around quite a bit the last few years as a pitcher intriguing enough to pick up but not good enough to hang on to. He is a lefty with some strikeout potential but control and command issues. It will be interesting to see if the M's make him rotation depth in Tacoma or slot him in the bullpen, where he just might be able to serve as MLB depth.
• RHP Blake Parker - Parker is a surprisingly intriguing acquisition. He barely pitched at all last year, but before that racked up some impressive numbers in AAA and the majors. It's easy to see him as a contributor in the Mariners bullpen, assuming he is healthy and recovered. That's a significant assumption, but as a minor league signee there is no risk involved here. I will be watching him closely early on.
• RHP Donn Roach - Roach has some MLB experience but for all intents and purposes looks like a solid veteran signed to soak up some innings in Tacoma. He likely slots into the Rainiers rotation as a capable arm that rarely dazzles but hopefully keeps the team in ballgames.

Few to none of these players are going to play in the majors next year, much less make an impact in the majors. No individual loss or acquisition on this list is significant. With that said, the signees are different than the players the Mariners let walk away. The new acquisitions are types of players that the Zduriencik regime generally ignored, for better or worse. Many of the new players are not all that "toolsy," but they are polished. They know how to maximize what skills they have. The hitters tend to have good plate discipline, and the pitchers tend to know how to navigate a handful of innings somewhat capably at the AAA level (instead of having big arms with little to no command). This will likely make for a better overall Rainiers squad, for whatever that is worth.

More significantly, these minor moves further illuminate the differences between Zduriencik and Dipoto. There are tons of minor league free agents that are not appreciably more or less talented than one another. So, teams differentiate based on particular traits that they prefer. Zduriencik tended to prefer raw tools, especially with pitchers. Dipoto is more interested in plate discipline and command. This is not surprising given Dipoto's public comments but it's good to see the integrity of his vision seeping into minor league moves.

Chapman Traded, Bigger Concerns Glossed Over

Aroldis Chapman (Keith Allison, Owing Mills: Wikimedia Commons)

I generally avoid analysis of trades not involving the Mariners, especially given the plethora of deals Jerry Dipoto showered us all with. However, the Yankees pulled off an interesting trade with the Reds today. They acquired flame-throwing closer Aroldis Chapman from the Reds for four prospects.*

*The prospects are 3B Eric Jagielo, INF Tony Renda, RHP Rookie Davis, and RHP Caleb Cotham.

The trade interests me for two very different reasons, one about baseball, the other less so.

Major League Baseball has never seen a hurler like Aroldis Chapman before, and it might be a long time until someone like him is seen again. He throws absurdly hard and it shows up in his eye-popping strikeout numbers. It also shows up in other absurd ways, like the necessity to add a filter just for his velocities on MLB statcast. To say that Chapman throws hard is an understatement; he throws so much harder than everyone else that it almost seems like he is throwing a different ball or something. So, placing a value on Chapman is hard because there are no real comps for him.

Still, the Yankees at first glance are an obvious landing place for Chapman just based on their overall brand and prestige. Of course the hardest-throwing pitcher of all time would wear pinstripes! What else could he possibly wear?

Not so fast. The Yankees aren't the juggernaut they used to be. They have labored for modest winning seasons in recent years and face significant question marks in their starting rotation. The back end of their bullpen was already among the best in baseball before acquiring Chapman, thanks to the dynamic duo of Andrew Miller and Dellin Betances - the two relievers with the highest strikeout rates in baseball not named Aroldis Chapman. The Yankees make a strength stronger with this deal and leave question marks unanswered.

What a strength the Yankees have though. They just assembled the greatest bullpen baseball has ever seen. I try to avoid hyperbole, but in this case it seems like anything short of calling this 'pen the greatest would be hyperbole. Maybe the Yankees trade one of their premium relievers, but I hope they don't out of curiosity for how the trio would perform together.

The 2015 Yankees bullpen could be the ultimate realization of what Tony La Russa unleashed on the game when he got serious about specializing bullpen roles with the Athletics. Bullpens have become more and more specialized over the last quarter century and teams increasingly value those roles. Many quality arms are now funneled towards the back end of a bullpen, which would have been unthinkable a quarter century ago. Bullpens have steadily evolved in modern baseball and at some point some team was going to go out and build an elite bullpen despite holes elsewhere. The 2015 Yankees could be that team.

I remain skeptical that Chapman makes a big difference for the Yankees because I tend to be old-fashioned with my bullpen views. I think they tend to be overrated in today's game. Basically, my argument is an age-old one: just how much more valuable is one inning near the end of a game than the six or so from a starting pitcher? Especially when a team is adding a third elite reliever like Chapman? Essentially the Yankees purchased an upgrade for the seventh inning. Theoretically they are now set up to "shorten" games down to six innings with Chapman's acquisition.

Sabermetrics provide a tool for figuring out the value of later innings compared to earlier ones. It is called a Leverage Index, which is built upon Win Probabilities. A Win Probability is simply the odds of a team winning in the given game state at the moment. So, for instance, a team that just got the 27th out and has a lead would have a Win Probability of 100 (they just won, therefore they will win 100% of the time in that situation). The Leverage Index measures how much Win Probability fluctuates in a given situation, depending on the outcome of an at-bat. If you've ever heard the term "high leverage situation," it is referencing this statistic, and more importantly, referencing a particular moment where a game's outcome hangs in the balance.

The Hardball Times ran a study a few years ago to get a feel for average leverage by inning. Their results surprised me. The average leverage in each inning is shockingly stable, with one major exception: the bottom of the ninth inning. This data suggests that an elite closer is most valuable when trying to protect a lead on the road, but that all other situations are not all the different over the course of a season.

However, even though the overall average leverage in each inning is not all that different, the distributions vary a noteworthy amount. The same Hardball Times article explored how frequently each inning had a Leverage Index above 2 (which is a very high index; it basically suggests the game is likely won or lost on the next play) and found a steady climb in frequencies throughout the course of a game. First innings only peaked above 2 around 10% of the time, whereas the rate had climbed to 26% in the 8th inning, and goes all the way up to 51% in the bottom of the ninth.

The frequencies are a bit more abstract to understand but more insightful when it comes to bullpen use. The reality is that elite relievers do not pitch every day and a manager chooses when they are deployed. It is possible to hold them in reserve for higher leverage situations, and over the course of a season it is reasonable to expect a good reliever to face high leverage situations twice as frequently as a starter.

There is a bit of a chicken-or-the-egg quality to all this analysis though. Bullpens face lower leverage situations more often when starters shut down opponents over six or seven innings, and also when their own team's offense blasts off and builds a huge lead. This is why leverage is a poor tool for analyzing individual performance. It is easily swayed by things entirely out of an individual player's control.

The Yankees bullpen was already automatic in the 8th and 9th inning, so what is the value of an automatic 7th? It largely depends on what happens the first 6 innings, though the elite arms used to depend on what happened in the first 7. There is some value added there, but I am not convinced it is worth $10+ million for only 1 guaranteed year at the cost of a quartet of prospects - marginal prospects, to be fair, but still prospects.

Still, theoretically, a team that looks something like the current Yankees would seem likely to maximize the value of an elite bullpen. They have questionable starting pitching with an aging offense that is probably still okay but features a handful of sluggers in the decline phase of their careers. This is a team likely to have many decent starts and decent offensive outputs, which will hand many close games (the high leverage situations) to their bullpen if things go right.

There is also the ugly reason that the Yankees could acquire Chapman at what is considered a cheap price. He is going through an alarming domestic violence investigation.

There will be no formal charges against Chapman due to conflicting witness accounts, which is important to note. Still, avoiding legal charges because eyewitness accounts conflict is different from saying that nothing happened. Eyewitness accounts agree that Chapman fired a gun multiple times and his girlfriend, at some point, fell on the ground with some sort of assistance from him. It appears likely that a trade between the Dodgers and Reds fell apart once the domestic violence charges surfaced. The Yankees swooped in the ensuing vacuum and picked up Chapman at what is being characterized as a discount price because of the risk that MLB will suspend him.

The NFL gets (rightly) raked over the coals for their blind eye towards domestic violence. Frankly, the severity of the allegations surrounding Chapman approach the concerns in the high-profile cases of Ray Rice and Greg Hardy, but they are not as widespread because MLB is not a pop-culture behemoth steadily turning the North American viewing public into pigskin zombies on Sundays.**

**and Mondays and Thursdays and Saturdays in December, plus the weekends of the scouting combine and draft

MLB commissioner Rob Manfred is in a tough spot here, given the touchy nature of Chapman's situation. Chapman technically committed no crime, but this is a chance for Major League Baseball to take a stand on domestic violence that other leagues, notably the NFL, are yet to take. I do not envy the decision that weighs on his shoulders.

Regardless, the discussion around Aroldis Chapman the past 24 hours leaves much to be desired. There is plenty of chatter about how overwhelming he makes the Yankees bullpen, which is true and germane. Mentions of his alarming domestic incident are scattered and woefully shallow. His incident is typically brought up in the context of the threat of a suspension which would keep this hallowed Yankee bullpen from full force. There is no consideration for the woman he at least traumatized.

When did Aroldis Chapman's golden arm become more valuable than the well-being of another human? I wish this was the kind of problem that only existed in the NFL.

Maybe sports reports are not the place for commentary on domestic violence, but framing a domestic violence concern one-dimensionally as an on-field consequence comes across as crass and irresponsible to me. Locking down the end of a Yankees win in April or May is only so important. There might be a few things in life more important.

It was not that long ago that bullpens were holding tanks for all the pitchers not good enough to crack a team's starting rotation. Anyone in a bullpen was an afterthought a generation ago. That certainly is not the case anymore.

'Kuma Caps Auspicious Offseason

Hisashi Iwakuma (LiAnna Davis, wikimedia commons)

The Mariners re-signed Hisashi Iwakuma last Friday in a surprise turn of events. I had counted on the Mariners making a smattering of minor moves that I could post about at my leisure over break, but Jerry Dipoto's wheelings and dealing know no bounds.

Also, to simply say Iwakuma was retained understates the drama that played out. Iwakuma had an agreement with the Dodgers but they wanted to renegotiate based on some things that popped up in a physical they administered. It is rare for deals to fall through because of a physical, and even more rare to watch one disintegrate and have another team so swiftly jump in and take advantage. It appears that 'Kuma's deal with the Mariners took less than 24 hours to come together.

Physicals and medical records are hardly a reasonable blog topic. I am far from a trained medical professional, and there is the whole medical privacy thing that means I have not seen anything of Iwakuma's anyway. Still, it is hard to imagine whatever the Dodgers found to be all that concerning. Iwakuma turns 35 years old early in the 2016 season. The odds of some wear and tear on 'Kuma's arm are extremely high, and it is not as if his arm needs to hold up for another decade. It needed to last three seasons, if the reported deal with Dodgers was accurate. What was so dangerous that the Dodgers, the team spending more money than any other in baseball, worried about their investment?

Also, it seems reasonable that Iwakuma wanted to stay in Seattle. Why would he backpedal out of the Dodgers deal so quickly and sign an incentive-laden deal with the Mariners? He did not even shop around as was his right as a free agent. All I am saying is that I am not convinced whatever concerns popped up in Iwakuma's physical were at the heart of his deal with LA falling apart. The Dodgers might have simply been doing their due diligence and accidentally triggered some soul-searching for Iwakuma.

Bottom line, Hisashi Iwakuma is back with the Mariners, and seems legitimately excited to return. His dabbling with the Dodgers turned out to be a blessing in disguise too.

Jerry Dipoto said that the Mariners had to extend their budget to re-sign Iwakuma, though he also mentioned that it took "less than five minutes" to get authorization. It is clear that ownership thinks highly of Iwakuma, as they should. Still, the reason that the Mariners did not have budget room was because Dipoto had moved on from Iwakuma. In particular, the addition of Wade Miley cost money.

The Mariners baked their cake and ate it too by happenstance. They nabbed a replacement for Hisashi Iwakuma and then got Iwakuma back anyway. This would not have happened if they had signed Iwakuma in the first place, because then there would not have been an authorization to add payroll. Ultimately, this is the real blessing of how the Iwakuma situation played out.

Dipoto and the Mariners already had a solid offseason before signing Iwakuma. Now they have had a very good offseason, if not a great one. The metamorphosis of the 40-man roster is largely done, which is not to say that moves are over and done with, but the overall shape and feel is in place with capable players in each spot.

The 2016 Mariners have the look of a contender, especially with Iwakuma back in the fold. Jerry Dipoto stuffed many stockings with all his moves, and thankfully he doled out very little coal.

Dipoto's Deals Know No End

You know what might be a fun game right now? Trying to guess who is on the Mariners roster right now. The names change daily. I like to keep transactions separate in unique posts, but Dipoto's frantic remodeling has made me reconsider. Plus, this week's moves seem more like a larger suite of deals that all go together. The recap:

DEPARTURES

• 1B/"OF" Mark Trumbo and LHP C.J. Riefenhauser traded to the Orioles for C/1B/3B Steve Clevenger - Trumbo was likely to earn around $9 million with a skillset that is essentially the antithesis of what we've come to expect from Dipoto. Trumbo is a very limited defender with minimal on-base skills. Riefenhauser was acquired earlier this offseason from the Rays, which means Dipoto has now traded someone he traded for! That seemed inevitable with his wheeling and dealing. In return, the Mariners got a replacement-level catcher who may or may not allow the M's to give Mike Zunino some development time in AAA. I suppose he adds some defensive versatility too. The Mariners gave up more talent than the Orioles in this trade, but also shed Trumbo's salary and opened up a roster spot to sign someone more in Dipoto's mold.
• OF/3B Patrick Kivlehan traded to the Rangers as the player to be named later in the Leonys Martin deal - Kivlehan is significant by player-to-be-named-later standards, and he has a chance to carve out an MLB career. It stings a bit to see him leave. However, he helped the Mariners get the center fielder they needed, and his loss opens up another 40-man roster spot.
• RHP Jose Ramirez traded to the Braves for a player to be named later or cash considerations - Ramirez has control problems but a big arm with some home run troubles. He is not all that far off from the Dipoto mold for pitchers, and Dipoto wants to build up pitching depth. However, he decided that whatever talent Ramirez possesses on the mound did not outweigh the added roster opening at this stage in the offseason. The move reduced the M's from a full 40-man roster to 39. I think it is safe to assume that Ramirez was going to get cut loose at some point in the near future when the Mariners acquire yet another player, and Dipoto found a team who wanted Ramirez bad enough to give the Mariners something.

ARRIVALS

• 1B Andy Wilkins, via waiver claim - I don't have much to say about this one. He looks like AAA depth, though Dipoto took the time to claim him on waivers and use a 40-man roster spot on him. This probably says more about his (lack of) faith in Jesus Montero than anything else.
• OF Nori Aoki, via free agency - I wrote about this move yesterday.
• RHP Justin De Fratus, via free agency - De Fratus fits the mold for Dipoto bullpen arms. Some success in the past, but not last year, despite underlying peripheral stats that suggest no real change in overall skill.
• Steve Clevenger, as already mentioned above in the Trumbo trade.

I think it is easier to think of all these separate deals as one big deal because then some clearer trade-offs emerge.

Mark Trumbo was probably a first baseman with the re-worked Mariners roster. He is gone and Wilkins takes his place on the depth chart. Wilkins is not as good as Trumbo, but he also costs $8+ million less. Trumbo was about to become an overpriced starter that produced some value, but not an incredible amount.

Nori Aoki takes Patrick Kivlehan's spot on the roster. This is a clear upgrade for 2016. His salary is also negligible because he costs about as much as Trumbo did in 2015. A trade of Trumbo and Kivlehan for Aoki and Wilkins makes quite a bit of sense for the Mariners. It makes them a better team in 2016 and could only look bad in the years to come if Kivlehan develops into an everyday player in Texas.

Jose Ramirez and Justin De Fratus essentially trade places too. This is another upgrade for the Mariners. De Fratus struggled last year, but he was still better than Ramirez and also comes with a track record of modest success in the majors.

That leaves C.J. Riefenhauser and Steve Clevenger as the final pair in this overall deal. This one is more abstract to figure out since they do not play the same positions. The overall value might be equal here. Clevenger plays the more demanding position (catcher) and has a little more success in the majors to his name, but he is also out of minor league options. Additionally, Riefenhauser is left-handed, which should account for something. However, Clevenger's presence allows the Mariners to much more comfortably make the right decision with Mike Zunino's development. If Zunino can develop into the star that many think he can be as a result of this little depth-bolstering move, then this is a huge gain for the Mariners.

So, overall, the only downgrade the Mariners made this week was at first base, but in the process they got better in several other areas. Moreover, the value they lost at first base should be relatively easy to replace at some point in the offseason. Dipoto might solve first base tomorrow at the rate he is going. The M's 40-man roster stands at 39 players so he might already have someone lined up for all we know.

Still, even before Jerry Dipoto find the M's starting first basement for 2016, the moves this week make sense when considered together. He is doing the equivalent of roster gerrymandering - trying to reallocate skill levels in different levels and different places which will make wins pile up better.

Nori Aoki Signed

Nori Aoki (Keith Allison, Flickr via UCinternational, Wikimedia Commons)

Jerry Dipoto flooded my queue with moves to digest yet again this week. I'll start with free agent signee Nori Aoki.

Aoki, in retrospect, was destined to be a Seattle Mariner once Jerry Dipoto took over. Dipoto has publicly pined for more athletic outfielders and better on-base skills. Aoki fits that profile perfectly and on a budget. He will earn $5.5 million in 2016, and in all likelihood his playing time will trigger a $6 million option for 2017.

There are a few reasons Aoki is relatively cheap. He is not a bargain, but rather probably slated to earn what he is worth. Aoki really only has one above-average skill, and that's his ability to make contact. That drives his batting average north of average, into the .280 range, and since he combines that good contact with average plate discipline his on-base percentage is also above average. Aoki also has some good speed on the basepaths, but how valuable that is remains up for debate in quantitative circles. It's something, but certainly does not make up for his lack of power. Overall, Aoki is a nice hitter.

Aoki is also a decent outfielder, and maybe even a good one. Traditional scouting seems to suggest that he is better than analytics like UZR suggest. However, every metric agrees that Aoki is at least a capable defender in left or right field, and maybe a good one. This is noteworthy given the defensive eyesores Jack Zduriencik was willing to place in corner outfield slots with regularity the past few years. Aoki is a defensive upgrade. The only question is how much of one.

The Mariners starting outfield might be set at this point. Dipoto said that he expects Aoki to play left field regularly and bat leadoff. That would allow the Franklin Gutierrez/Seth Smith platoon to shift to right field while recently acquired Leonys Martin roams around center field. This also assumes that Nelson Cruz will DH more often next year.

All in all, Dipoto has pieced together what promises to be the M's best defensive outfield in years. Catching fly balls and taking more pitches are less sexy skills than CRUSHING BASEBALLS, but it is refreshing to watch the Mariners embrace those "Safeco'd" fly balls instead of trying to rather literally beat the data-confirmed stereotype into submission.

Dipoto Grabs More D, Acquires Sardinas

Jerry Dipoto, it turns out, is a man of his word. He said he wanted to make the Mariners more athletic and focus on run prevention. Both of his outfield acquisitions, Boog Powell and Leonys Martin, fit that mold. However, the Mariners were starved for outfielders. Dipoto's most recent trade really begins to show his value in defense.

Yesterday the Mariners made a minor move, shipping OF Ramon Flores to the Brewers for INF Luis Sardinas. I would argue this trade is the most interesting of Dipoto's so far because it gives us the best look at his vision. It's the first deal he made that did not address a gaping hole on the roster, so presumably this says something about how he values Sardinas and his skills.

Let's start with Flores though. We hardly got to know him. He was part of the package the Mariners got in return from the Yankees for Dustin Ackley at the trade deadline. Flores got off to a torrid start in Tacoma but broke his leg and missed the remainder of the season.*

*I was at the game where Flores broke his leg. It was weird. No contact involved. He crumpled to the ground in the middle of running down a ball in the right-center field gap.

I felt that Flores had a fringy toolset, but in areas where the Mariners lacked any skills. He batted leadoff in Tacoma and I quickly fell in love with his approach at the plate. Flores worked counts and was a safe bet to put the ball in play, often enough in the form of a pretty solid line drive. I liked him as a darkhorse to make the Mairners opening day roster, assuming he had recovered from his broken leg.

Luis Sardinas is an interesting return for a player like Flores. Sardinas is not much of a hitter (at least yet) but he can play shortstop and already has experience at second and third base. At worst he is a utilitiy infielder. However, Sardinas is only 22 years old and has a few cups of coffee in the majors to his credit already. He was also listed among the top 100 prospects in all of baseball in 2013 and 2014 by Baseball America. For a little perspective, neither Brad Miller nor Chris Taylor had gone beyond AA by the time they were 22 years old, and neither were ever listed as a top 100 prospect. This is hardly a guarantee that Sardinas will be an impact player in the majors, but he brings some interesting upside to the Mariners while also adding defensive depth around the infield.

I doubt anyone, Jerry Dipoto included, thinks that Luis Sadinas is a better hitter than Ramon Flores. So, Dipoto is banking on Sardinas providing value defensively, especially at shortstop. However, the Mariners already have Ketel Marte and Chris Taylor on the roster, so Sardinas is a bit buried on the depth chart. He is almost certainly more buried than Ramon Flores was.

Perhaps the Sardinas deal is actually a harbinger of yet another trade, ala when Dipoto acquired Joaquin Benoit and then shipped away Tom Wilhelmsen. However, this deal can also stand on its own. Sardinas is younger with better reports on his defense. He fits the Dipoto of team control and run prevention. He appears to show just how serious Dipoto is about both, given that Sardinas does not play a position of need like other Dipoto acquisitions have.

Ultimately, Sardinas reminds me some of Joaquian Arias, who is the definition of a replacement-level infielder. So, this trade is not likely to make a huge impact. However, from a skillset perspective, it says something about how devoted Jerry Dipoto is to defense and run prevention.

Mariners Acquire Joaquin Benoit

Joaquin Benoit
(Keith Allison, Flickr via Wikimedia Commons)

The Mariners made a relatively small deal today, but nonetheless a trade that impacts the 2016 roster and sends a message. They acquired RHP Joaquin Benoit from the Padres for minor-leaguers Nelson Ward and Enyel De Los Santos.

First of all, a couple quick blurbs on the minor-leaguers. Ward is organizational depth. He is 23 years old and finished the season in advanced A ball in Bakersfield. Ward has put together some nice hitting numbers but nothing sensational.

Enyel De Los Santos is the baseball equivalent of a lottery ticket. He is just 19 years and has a whopping total of two months' professional experience. Granted, those couple months looked good, but we are talking about a 19-year-old pitching prospect in short-season rookie league. If De Los Santos ever makes it to the majors, and especially if he becomes an impact player in the majors, it will be thanks to the Padres development of him over the next two to four years as much as his natural ability.

Benoit is an interesting acquisition for the Mariners. It is relatively easy to see why the Padres wanted to get rid of him. He is owed $8 million next year and will turn 39 years old - all as a reliever. Spending $8 million on relievers crowding 40 is not the most efficient use of funds.

However, while Benoit may not be the most efficient use of salary, he is pretty darn good. In fact, Benoit might be among the most underrated relievers of the past decade. His career has largely flown under the radar because he has rarely been his team's closer, but his numbers compare favorably with glitzier names.

Moreover, Benoit shows no signs of slowing down. His average fastball velocity remains steady around 94 mph, his pitch selection has not changed much over the past decade, and his results have been remarkably steady as well. Even if Benoit loses some fastball velocity his best pitch is a deadly change-up, so he should be able to stay productive for the near future. Basically Joaquin Benoit is Fernando Rodney with a little less velocity and way more command.

The Mariners needed some bullpen depth, but I had assumed Jerry Dipoto would address it through waivers - essentially collecting castoffs from other teams, such as Cody Martin (who the M's picked up on waivers October 19). Benoit does not fit this mold at all.

The only point in acquiring Benoit is if you plan to contend in 2016. Benoit is an expensive asset in one of the more flexible areas of any roster, the bullpen. Kevin Mather said he wanted a GM who would not waste the prime years of King Felix, Cano, and Nelson Cruz. Jerry Dipoto said he wanted to build a winner. These are easy things to say, but picking up Benoit, as relatively small as the move is, puts some teeth in those words.

This is going to be a busy offseason. Jerry Dipoto is not playing around. The Mariners are going to be a contender next year.

Robertson Claimed, Piles Grow

The Mariners made a small move yesterday, claiming OF Daniel Robertson off of waivers. He is the second waiver pick-up by Jerry Dipoto so far. The other is RHP Cody Martin, which happened so far underneath the radar that I did not notice until yesterday. The move actually happened October 19.

Neither Robertson nor Martin are exceptional on their own, but they both provide more clues on Dipoto's vision.

It is easy to see why Robertson was available on waivers. He is 30 years old and listed at 5'8". Unsurprisingly, Robertson has never hit for power, and really has not hit at all in the majors. However, Robertson is a capable defender at all three outfield positions and has a strong history of plate discipline throughout his time in the minor leagues. Jerry Dipoto has stated publicly that he wants athletic outfielders and prefers a style of baseball with lots of baserunners moving from station to station. Robertson is hardly an impact bat, but his limited skills are the ones that the Mariners did not have under Jack Zduriencik.

Cody Martin made his MLB debut last year and was about as unfortunate as unfortunate gets. He got lit up to the tune of a 7.92 ERA out of the bullpen. That was caused, predictably, by a high home run rate (21.1% of fly balls, over double the league average). Martin also suffered from a very low strand rate, meaning his baserunners came around to score well more than average. Martin has a track record of solid success starting in the minor leagues though, and Jerry Dipoto is clearly banking on both regression to the mean and Safeco's friendly confines masking the dinger issue. Plus, the Mariners needed some pitching depth. Martin is exactly the kind of pitcher that Dipoto should be going after to fill in roster depth.

Obviously, the offseason has barely begun and Jerry Dipoto likely has many more moves left before the Mariners report to Peoria next spring. However, even with the few moves on the books, it is clear that Dipoto is focused on finding strikeout pitchers with lots of team control (even if they have elevated home run rates), and speedy outfielders with on-base and defensive skills. So why not take a peek at what the Mariners opening day roster might look like right now? Here is my best guess:

STARTING LINEUP

1. Boog Powell (CF)
2. Ketel Marte (SS)
3. Robinson Cano (2B)
4. Nelson Cruz (DH)
5. Kyle Seager (3B)
6. Mark Trumbo (1B)
7. Seth Smith (RF)
8. Franklin Gutierrez (LF)
9. Mike Zunino (C)

BENCH

• Chris Taylor (INF)
• Shawn O'Malley (UT)
• Daniel Robertson (OF)
• Jesus Sucre (C)

STARTING ROTATION

1. Felix Hernandez
2. Taijuan Walker
3. Nate Karns
4. James Paxton
5. Roenis Elias

BULLPEN

• Cody Martin
• Tony Zych
• C.J. Reifenhauser
• Vidal Nuno
• Tom Wilhelmsen
• Charlie Furbush
• Carson Smith

This is just my best guess, and actually I would guess that neither Dipoto nor Scott Servais has conducted this thought experiment with how crazy early it is in the offseason. I assumed all Mariners free agents were gone (hence no Iwakuma) and also assumed no free agent signings.

The 2016 Mariners will obviously look different, and in all likelihood better, than this current projected roster. That's not really the point of the exercise though. The point is that it is pretty easy to see the overall structure of the roster already. The outfield looks different, and the skillset Dipoto is focused on out there is likely to make the top and bottom of the lineup look very different. The pitching staff already looks like it will generate lots of swings and misses, but also more than fair share of fly balls. This makes a good defensive outfield all the more important.

I hope that Dipoto builds up some more depth, and there is little doubt he will do that. I like the overall feel of the Mariners team he is building. The little moves so far are building up some piles of serviceable players in spots where the Mariners had no replacement level players. It seems like the players being brought in are puzzle pieces that contribute to a better whole. This is progress.

Crazy Legs for Boog (and Others): Offseason Begins Unexpectedly

Brad Miller
(Flickr via Wikimedia Commons, Keith Allison)

Jerry Dipoto consummated his first deal as Mariners GM, a six-player swap with the Rays. It also doubles as the first transaction of the offseason made by any team. The trade is (probably) not star-studded, but nonetheless and interesting six-player deal that raised some eyebrows. The blow-by-blow recap:

Rays acquire:

• RHP Danny Farquhar - Lord Farquhar was a revelation in 2014, and really near the end of 2013 too. He combined a 96-mph heater with a very good cutter and racked up strikeouts at a prolific rate. However, Farquhar struggled mightily last season and shuttled between Seattle and Tacoma a bit. Farquhar could regress next year, which for him means improving to his 2014 form, but his inclusion in this deal suggests that Dipoto saw him as fringy depth.
• SS? Brad Miller - Crazy legs is clearly the key piece in this deal, and in all likelihood the best player of all six traded. However, Miller's value is hard to judge, and his trade value is especially mysterious. Miller is a polarizing player because of his skillset. He has gap power, nice speed, and just enough contact and plate discipline to be a respectable hitter. This is a tremendous combination for a shortstop, but opinions of Miller's defense at shortstop vary wildly. Some think he is awful and must move off the position immediately. Others point to data like UZR and suggest that he his at least league average. An average defender at short with a league-average bat is a borderline all-star. An average defender in left field with an average bat is a fringe starter. So, a team who sees Miller as a shortstop would value him much more than a team who thinks he must move off the position. Any team acquiring Crazy Legs likely sees him as a shortstop, but also likely knows that he should come at a bit of a reduced price because other teams would have no interest in him. I always liked Miller as a shortstop so his inclusion in this trade his hard for me to stomach. More on this in the analysis to follow.
• 1B Logan Morrison - Frankly, I view LoMo as less than a throw-in. He penciled in as a bench bat slated to make around $4 million in arbitration. There was little doubt in my mind that Dipoto would get rid of him one way or another. The Mariners collected way too many 1B/DH types under Jack Zduriencik. The $4 million man most likely to sit on the bench many days was a very logical guy to go.

Mariners acquire:

• RHP Nate Karns - Karns fits the Dipoto mold. He is a hard-throwing righty that racks up strikeouts, along with a disproportionate amount of home runs. Whether his high home run rate is an unsustainable fluke or an underlying flaw in his game remains to be seen. Either way, Safeco Field is likely to mask this problem. At worst, Karns is a serviceable starting pitcher under cheap team control for several years. At best, he could take a step forward and be a legitimate mid-rotation starter.
• CF Boog Powell - Powell also fits the Dipoto mold, or at least the vision he shared of his kind of Safeco Field team. Powell has little power to speak of, but has exhibited great patience, plate discipline, and contact ability throughout the minors. Moreover, scouting reports suggest that Powell can serviceably defend all three outfield positions. Powell's skillset screams marginal MLB talent, but his specific things he is good at are things that were virtually non-existent on the Mariners roster.
• LHP C.J. Riefenhauser - A lefty reliever yet to do much in the majors (albeit in limited opportunities), Riefenhauser has been productive in the minors and has lots of years of team control remaining. The lengthy team control is probably his greatest asset, though he is also highly likely to log some time in the M's bullpen in 2016.

It is easy to look at this trade and be disappointed in Dipoto and the Mariners. Farquhar, Miller, and Morrison all logged significant time with the Mariners the last two years. Only Karns has done much of anything in the majors among the trio the Mariners receieved. Also, Farquhar, Miller, and Morrison were among the Mariners more interesting, charismatic players. Brad Miller with his crazy legs and gorgeous stirrups, Farquhar with his brutal honesty in interviews (like saying he was sent down because he sucked), and LoMo with things like running to the mound and asking Fernando Rodney where his arrow went. I simply enjoyed the presence of the players the M's got rid of in this trade, and the players received are, at least at the moment, so anonymous.

I am glad I waited a day to write this post though. The deal has grown on me considerably in the past 24 hours. It is a tad risky, but makes good sense, especially when some hidden assets in the deal are considered.

The Mariners needed some team-controlled, cost-controlled depth. Robinson Cano, King Felix, and Kyle Seager are all signed for $100+ million for the next several years. Nelson Cruz is not exactly cheap either and has three years remaining on his deal. The Mariners have to count on these players being the core of their team. However, the Mariners won't win with this core if they cannot assemble decent talent around them, and that talent will have to come on a budget. These players do not need to be stars, but they need to be complimentary pieces at reasonable prices - in other words, decent players who are years short of hitting free agency.

Boog Powell has 6 years of team control remaining. His MLB clock hasn't started. Riefenhauser has at least 5 years of team control. Karns has at least 4. LoMo had 1 year of team control left, Farquhar and Miller were at 3 or 4 apiece. The Mariners added several years of cheap, team-controlled talent in this trade, which cannot be ignored in the overall valuation of this deal. In fact, the gap in team-controlled years involved in this trade is large enough to expect the Mariners needed to give up more talent to offset this gain - and pursuing decent players with lots of team-controlled years, given the current structure of the Mariners payroll, is somewhere between wise and necessary.

So, Danny Farquhar is probably a more talented reliever than C.J. Riefenhauser. However, I would argue he is a less valuable overall asset. Riefenhauser is left-handed with a couple more years of team control. If both Farquhar and Riefenhauser project as bullpen depth - either in middle relief in the majors or as one of the first call-ups from Tacoama - taking the guy with more cheap, team-controlled years is a no-brainer. The talent gap doesn't matter as much as the millions of dollars that can be spent somewhere else.

Similarly, this is why Logan Morrison could almost be considered a liability for the Mariners. He projected to have marginal playing time at best*, with only one year of team control remaining, and a relatively pricey year given his projected role. LoMo's lumbering lefty power would have been nice to have stashed away on the bench, but LoMo as an overall asset did not make much sense for the 2016 Mariners. The price point and lack of team control are not good fits at all.

*Assuming Mark Trumbo plays first base, which seems especially safe with this trade.

Ultimately, this all suggests that the talent gap between Brad Miller and the combination of Nate Karns and Boog Powell has to be substantial before this deal turns out bad for the Mariners. There is room for Miller to blossom for the Rays and for the Mariners to still be better for making this trade. 

The deal is even less likely to turn out bad given the complexion of the Mariners roster. They desperately needed capable defensive outfielders and some plate discipline, the two things Zduriencik completely ignored the last few years as he horded ALL THE DINGERS FOREVER. Boog Powell has plate discipline and outfield defense. It remains to be seen if Powell's skills are strong enough to carve out a legitimate spot in the majors, but he at least possesses skills the Mariners sorely lacked. 

As for Karns, he will help eliminate the need to stretch out relievers to start, which is what the Mariners ended up doing after the All-Star break (Vidal Nuno, Edgar Olmos, and even Tony Zych for one start). Rotation depth was absolutely necessary, especially with Hisashi Iwakuma as an impending free agent.

At worst, the Mariners got a little depth with lots of cheap, team-controlled years. At best, they got themselves a nice mid-rotation starter and an everyday centerfielder who could also be an effective leadoff hitter. Dipoto's comments suggest that he believes he got the latter, not the former, which makes it easy to see why he would part with Brad Miller. I think Dipoto is looking through this trade with rose-tinted glasses based on his comments, but even an outcome noticeably short of Dipoto's vision is still one worth making.

Mariners Decide They Want To Field Actual MLB Outfield

Austin Jackson (wikimedia commons)

Lo and behold, the Mariners were active at the trade deadline! When the dust settled the Mariners grabbed a pair of right-handed outfielders for nobody on the current MLB roster. Clearly they are better, and addressed their most glaring spots of need. Time to get to know the newest Mariners, just how much better they've made the team, and how much was given up to get them:

Mariners acquire OF Chris Denorfia from the Padres for OF Abe Almonte and RHP Stephen Kohlscheen

Denorfia is what he is, a right-handed bat with a bit of gap power and good corner outfield defense. He becomes a free agent at the end of the year and is 34 years old. He is a rental and marginal upgrade for most teams, though not the Mariners. Keep in mind he will replace a slew of right-fielders that have combined for about -1.5 WAR this season. He could be as much as a 2-win upgrade because he supplants players posting negative totals.

The Mariners gave up a surprising amount at first glance, though not an alarming amount. It depends on how much you like Almonte. I still like him as a fourth outfielder, and frankly he was a better option than James Jones in center this whole time (though Jones likely has more long-term upside). Kohlscheen also looks like a solid bullpen piece, but he was buried in the Mariners embarrassment of bullpen riches.

Usually, a player like Denorfia comes at virtually no cost (like cash or a player to be named later), but this wasn't a normal market. Very few bats were available, and the ones that went tended to go for surprising prices. Asdrubal Cabrera, in a down year, netted Cleveland a surprisingly decent shortstop prospect in Zach Walters. Gerardo Parra, an all-glove, limited-bat type, went to the Brewers for a pair of prospects. It seems to me that the price the M's paid for Denorfia is in line with this year's market values. More importantly, the Mariners kept their group of core prospects together. At least until a few hours later...

Mariners acquire OF Austin Jackson from the Tigers for 2B Nick Franklin (who goes to the Rays in the David Price blockbuster)

It's hard not to like this deal for the Mariners. Jackson is a bona fide center fielder, though his defense has slipped the last few years according to advanced metrics. Still, defensively, he's an upgrade over James Jones (at least until Jones develops further; I like his raw tools) and is lightyears ahead of Jones with the bat. Jackson strikes out a bit, but with some power. He was a 5-win player a few seasons ago and is still just 27 years old. He should be entering his prime right about now. Jackson is also under team control through next season, so he is not a pure rental.

Nick Franklin is a more than fair price for Jackson. Franklin had no spot on the Mariners once Robinson Cano signed. He continues to crush AAA pitching and strike out too much in the majors. Either he will figure out MLB pitching or he won't. I think Franklin will, and if/when he does he could be a good everyday player for the Rays. However, his high strikeout rates make me wonder if Sean Rodriguez is a reasonable comp for him at this point - and if that's the comp, then the Mariners swung a great deal.

Honestly, I am pleasantly surprised that the Mariners could get Jackson for Franklin, straight up, and also pleasantly surprised that Zduriencik pulled the trigger on this deal. I have a hard time imagining this trade turning into a disaster, even if Franklin develops into a good player.

Overall, the Mariners are probably 2 or 3 wins better between now and the end of the season with Jackson and Denorfia, and only gave up one core prospect to improve - and of the core prospects, Nick Franklin was the most expendable thanks to Robinson Cano.

The Mariners may or may not make the playoffs with the roster they have, but they should hang around the race. Their rotation could get huge boosts from James Paxton and Taijuan Walker if either can get totally healthy and locked in between now and September. Denorfia and Jackson aren't the same kind of additions the A's and Tigers made grabbling Lester and David Price, respectively, but I'm not sure what else the Mariners could have done that would have made good sense. Two thumbs up from me. Time to see how the pennant race unfolds.

Forever Young

Chris Young

The Mariners signed RHP Chris Young to an MLB deal this morning, meaning the Mariners finally signed a starting pitcher! He likely thrusts either Blake Beavan or Roenis Elias out of a rotation spot (odds are it will be Beavan). The Mariners made room on the roster by designating LHP Bobby LaFramboise for assignment.

First, a note on LaFramboise. He's a side-arming lefty reliever who has been very productive in AAA the past two seasons. He got a quick look from the M's last year and in 10 innings gave up quite a few runs. However, he also struck out over a batter an inning without many walks. He's a capable bullpen arm and I'll be very surprised if he sneaks through waivers. Somebody will claim him, and he might even get some legitimate big league time depending on who claims him. Hector Noesi seemed like a more logical DFA candidate, given that he is out of options, seems to fit the role that Chris Young will now fill, and has struggled more than LaFramboise the last two seasons. I won't get up in arms yet though; it seems likely that there will be more casualties to get non-roster guys on the roster.

Young got cut loose by the Nationals just days ago so he wasn't an option when the Mariners signed (and cut loose) veterans like Scott Baker and Randy Wolf. Young is more interesting than either Baker or Wolf, and he just might be better too.

The first thing that stands out about Young is him standing - literally. He is 6'10", the same height as Randy Johnson. The height likely makes him more True to the Blue than either Baker or Wolf, both of whom are diminutive in comparison. That's about all that Young and the Big Unit have in common though.

Young is now tower of power on the mound. His fastball topped out in the low 90s when he cracked the majors back in 2007, and averaged a stunningly low 84.6 miles an hour in 2012. He didn't pitch at all in the majors in 2013 thanks to major shoulder problems. Furthermore, Young combines his soft pitches with extreme fly ball tendencies - so extreme, in fact, that he has a lower ground ball percentage than any other pitcher in the past decade.

Ladies and gentleman, your fifth starter! A 6'10" monolith to fly balls, finesse pitching, and shoulder problems. In all honesty I make this move sound worse than it probably is, though it is every bit as absurd as I make it sound.

Chris Young's injury history the past four seasons very strongly suggests that he will break down at some point this season. That's probably okay though. What the Mariners really need to know is that he can make it through April, and since he's healthy right now that's not a bad bet to make.

Also, velocity has never been a big part of Chris Young's game. That 85-mph heater in 2012 was good for a 4.15 ERA and 0.9 WAR over 115 innings with the Mets. Moreover, his only bad season was an injury-marred 2009 campaign (other than the missing seasons he has accumulated with injuries.) There are reasons to believe that the Mariners will get some solid starts out of Chris Young until he inevitably gets hurt.

In the end I wonder what makes Chris Young more desirable than Scott Baker or Randy Wolf. I will say that Young performed better in Nationals camp than Baker did with the Mariners. He's had a year off like Wolf, but was more productive before his injury than Wolf was with his, and Young's shoulder woes are arguably less impactful than Wolf's Tommy John surgery. However, it's worth noting that Chris Young got an MLB deal from the Mariners, which is a much higher commitment than the non-roster deals both Baker and Wolf signed.

Chris Young is a Mariners starting pitcher as of today. That's probably a good thing despite the odd, twisting path that got Young and the Mariners to this point. There is a good chance he pitches better than Beavan, Wolf, or Baker would have. I don't understand how the Mariners justify giving him the money they wouldn't hand Randy Wolf, but whatever. The Mariners added a starting pitcher today instead of dropping one and that's a positive development.

Mariners Play Hardball With Wolf, Everybody Loses

The camo can't hide that Randy Wolf's best days are
behind him at this point in his career.

Another day, another starting pitching casualty, this time thanks to some odd roster gerrymandering. Today was when MLB players signed to minor league deals needed to be told whether they made the opening day roster or not across Major League Baseball. The M's had three such players in this boat - OF Endy Chavez, C Humberto Quintero, and LHP Randy Wolf. The M's had two such players in this boat - OF Endy Chavez and C Humberto Quintero. For good measure they gave LHP Randy Wolf a decision today as well.

Both Chavez and Quintero were informed they would not make the club. Quintero was a no-brainer with Mike Zunino and John Buck in the fold. Endy Chavez also was an unsurprising decision, and there is word the he already agreed to a minor league deal. I look forward to seeing him roam Cheney Stadium's outfield this summer (I make it to many more Rainiers games than Mariners ones).

Then there was Randy Wolf. He made the team and as a result got released, because this team is just loaded with starting rotation options at the moment. Bob Dutton tweets that Hector Noesi is now in the mix for a rotation spot after most (including me) assumed he would be among the first in line to get cut loose for 40-man roster space.

Only the Mariners. Is this what it means to be "true to the blue?"

Ryan Divish has nicely detailed breakdown of what happened with Randy Wolf today. Basically, Wolf made the Mariners, which guaranteed him $1 million this season - with one catch. The Mariners asked him to sign a 45-day out clause, which essentially gives the M's the option to cut him loose after a month and not give him all $1 million. Zduriencik says that it is a common agreement with players in Wolf's situation, and Divish points out that the rules do not allow the Mariners (or any team) to offer the clause until they have formally told a non-roster invitee like Wolf that they have made the team.

So, the Mariners didn't really offer a bait-and-switch or poison pill, but the damage was done. Wolf felt the clause substantially altered the contract he initially agreed to and he wasn't going to stand for that. Wolf wouldn't sign the out clause, so he and the Mariners are going their separate ways.

It's painfully easy to see why the Mariners wanted Wolf to sign the out clause. Both Taijuan Walker and Hisashi Iwakuma will likely be ready to go 45 days into the MLB season, which will come in mid-May. Wolf would have to outpitch either James Paxton or Erasmo Ramirez to keep a spot in the rotation, and potentially by a noticeable margin given that both could be long-term fixtures on the team for years to come. Wolf decided to take his chances now in the free agent market than a month down the road.

Wolf wasn't all that amazing in spring training, though not horrible either - but the fact remains that he is an old starting pitcher who didn't pitch at all last season and is even farther removed from being a productive contributor. I doubt he will find an MLB deal anywhere without signing that 45-day clause and he's even less likely to find a team as starved for starting pitching as the Mariners right now. It's plausible that Randy Wolf just turned down his best, and maybe even final, chance to make it back to the big leagues. It's also possible he gets scooped up tomorrow. The next week will be an interesting one for him, but at best he's making a lateral move, and the lateral move probably represents a better outcome than he can expect.

The Mariners clearly had the leverage in this situation and good reasons to both offer Wolf the out clause and expect him to take it. I don't think they were malicious or misguided offering it. Also, although the Mariners rotation depth is maligned, they have other options in guys like Blake Beavan and Hector Noesi. They are the kind of options that make a fan crinkle their nose, but to be honest Randy Wolf is much closer to smelling salts than citronella or chamomile at this stage in his career too.

However, in the end, I am not sure the Mariners made a good decision, even though it is easy to justify. Think about it: 45 days in the majors is roughly 40 or 41 games, depending on off days. In other words, a quarter of the season. So, the out clause would allow the Mariners to pay Randy Wolf about $250,000 instead of $1 million.

The Mariners just stood firm and let Randy Wolf walk over $750,000 after deciding he was good enough to make the opening day roster. The M's projected payroll as of right now is $74 million, $10 million below last year's mark (even after signing Cano.)* Ownership said the money is there to expand payroll for the right player, but the team's actions aren't remotely close to these words. Somehow they decided to tighten the purse strings further with Cano, even though he came out and publicly said that the Mariners need more pieces.

*Worth noting that this projection does not include bonuses which Corey Hart could earn. Those would push the payroll closer to $80 million. Doesn't change the overall point I'm making.

In the end, the Wolf saga leaves everybody a loser. Wolf increased his risk substantially of making an opening day roster with no realistic chance at more money or guarantees. The Mariners lost another rotation option in a group already considered thin. In the end, given that Wolf is near the end of his career and probably not much beyond a replacement-level pitcher, none of the on-field ramifications mean all that much. It's the fact that the Mariners were so stubborn over $750,000 that sticks with me, given the rotation needs and the context of their offseason. I don't get it; I really don't get it at all.

Scott Baker Joins Roster Mix

Scott Baker, back in the day (Keith Allison, photographer)

The Mariners made a couple small moves today, ditching Carlos Peguero on the Royals for cash or a player to be named later, and signing Scott Baker to a minor league deal with an invite to spring training (plus incentives for innings pitched). The Peguero move is minor - he was already in DFA limbo - though I will miss his mammoth at-bats in Tacoma. He was a fun one to watch, much in the same way Dan Cortes was a few years back. POWER and FATAL FLAWS, which will win?! In AAA, the outcome wasn't so certain as it is in the majors. Hence the fun.

The more interesting move is Scott Baker, who has been rumored as a fit for the Mariners for some time now. He joins Mark Rogers on the M's scrap heap of possible rotation arms, though is much stronger bet than Rogers, given that Rogers has struggled to throw strikes throughout his minor league career. Baker, on the other hand, sports 17.5 career WAR in nearly 1,000 MLB innings.

Baker, now 33 years old, isn't exactly a workhorse, given that he has only topped 200 innings once in his career. He also doesn't do anything particularly well - he has a decent strikeout rate, good walk rate, average home run rate, his fair share of ground balls, doesn't work all that deep into ballgames - literally no stand-out skill. However, Baker also doesn't have any real flaws, and no flaws over 170-ish innings racks up some surprising WAR.

Now, there is the possibility that Baker is finished, particularly given that he had Tommy John surgery in 2012. However, he made it back for three starts right at the end of last season and held his own. Many Tommy John arms bounce back more the second year after returning to the mound too, so there is a non-zero chance that Scott Baker gets stronger as 2014 wears on. If he does, the Mariners have themselves a solid rotation arm.

Frankly, a roster spot is Baker's to lose. His contract reportedly includes incentives tied to innings pitched. The only way he doesn't crack the rotation is if both James Paxton and Erasmo Ramirez look good in spring training, and in that case Baker is likely a bullpen arm.

Ervin Santana and Ubaldo Jimenez, the top arms left in free agency, have had some up-and-down years recently, though both entered the market after "up" seasons. Baker hits the market "down." He probably isn't as good as Santana or Jimenez, but there isn't a $10 million talent gap between them, and his contract isn't about to make things awkward if/when more of the M's young arms are ready for a try in the rotation. It's been a while since I've felt this good about a move the Mariners made.

Joe Saunders, the Cheaper/Older Jason Vargas

The Mariners pulled a neat trick with their starting rotation this offseason that has not received enough attention. The moves received attention separately, but together the Jason Vargas trade and Joe Saunders signings are worth thinking about.

Vargas was traded to the Angels for Kendry Morales in a deal that made good sense for both sides once the Angels signed Josh Hamilton. Morales gives the Mariners offense, Vargas gives the Angels a pitcher they needed to round out their rotation. Both players were eligible for arbitration one final time before free agency, so financially the swap was a great combination.

Morales agreed to a contract with the Mariners for $5.25 million. Vargas agreed to a contract with the Angels for $8.5 million. Advantage (financially), Mariners - although Vargas left a significant question mark behind in the starting rotation.

The Mariners have since signed Joe Saunders to a $7 million contract, with an option for next season worth $6.5 million. He is a southpaw that relies on a change-up to get batters out. On the surface he sounds a bunch like Jason Vargas, except he will cost $1.5 million less.

I took a closer look at the data to see how comparable Saunders and Vargas are. Similar might not be a strong enough word. They might as well be each other.

He's Ours

There are 175 million more reasons that Felix Hernandez is a Seattle Mariner as of this afternoon. The deal is official, and was even signed at a public press conference, so there can be no doubt - Felix Hernandez is Mariners property for the next seven years.

To quote some local independent artists who just went triple platinum, this is (blank)ing awesome.

Jack Zduriencik simply said about Felix, "he's ours," and there isn't a better title for this post. Z's quote is literally true, but more importantly speaks to the heart of what was at stake until today, and why this deal was historic and inevitable at the same time.

When I watched the replay of King Felix's press conference, I saw a young man who knows he has it good, and has no interest in finding out if the grass is greener anywhere else. I was struck by how Felix talked about the Mariners, Safeco Field, and the city of Seattle. He described how supportive the fans are of him, how awesome the King's Court is, and how exciting it is to pitch in Safeco Field - as if his physics-bending change-up wouldn't play well anywhere else. Felix would be loved wherever he pitches, but that doesn't seem to be the way Felix thinks. Felix knows that Seattle loves him, and he knows that he loves Seattle. Maybe he would like it elsewhere, but why tempt fate?

Wouldn't we all like to believe we know when we have it good, and we cherish good things when we have them?

Raul Ibanez Returns to Seattle (Again)

Much like many of us who travel far to return home and see family and relatives, news just broke that Raul Ibanez will be returning 'home' to Seattle for the third time. The only difference is that Ibanez will be making about $2.75 million with another $1.75 million in incentives, according to AP, and I'm guessing he won't be dealing with that weird aunt or uncle who pours too much 'Christmas cheer' in their eggnog and then rants about politics. Although, Erik Wedge seems like a guy who likes his eggnog.

Mariners Make Flurry of Minor Moves

There was a mini firestorm of moves across baseball yesterday because baseball teams procrastinate. Yesterday was the last day to add players and protect them from the Rule 5 draft. Every move the Mariners made (and everyone else for that matter) must be looked through with the Rule 5 draft in mind, because it is the reason for all the movement on what would have otherwise been the latest, slow-as-molasses offseason day in baseball.

I will go in reverse order from how things are usually reported, because it helps make more sense of what happened. Here are the players the Mariners added to their 40-man roster yesterday:

The Somewhat Shocking Pineda Trade

Maybe this is finally the deal that convinces the national media that the Mariners will not trade Felix Hernandez.

Michael Pineda and Jose Campos are both gone, to the Yankees for Jesus Montero and Hector Noesi. The deal involves lots of young, talented blood, which makes it the kind of deal that stings for both teams.

The upside for the Yankees is clear. They already had offense, but coupled that with a shaky rotation. If Pineda has any sort of legitimate encore to his rookie campaign, the Yankees are in good shape to contend for a world championship. I wrote a post on Pineda back in May, when he was emerging as a force. I stand by my words I wrote back then.

Campos is a loss that could make the Mariners look bad. He's still young, and a young pitcher to boot, but he looks like he is going to be quite good. The Yankees might have just acquired a decade worth of talent in the front end of their rotation.

The Mariners definitely got some talent in return though.