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2009 Division Series Odds

An extension of my projected standings formula is predicting the odds of a team winning a series. I will update this daily, since each game played impacts the odds in the series. Odds are based on run differential, the team's strength of schedule, and the current state of the series. Here are the odds, along with my personal pick (which won't change daily), based mostly on my gut and nothing else:


Twins vs. Yankees - Yankees won series 3-0

My pick: Yankees in four games. Even if the Twins weren't exhausted after their epic tiebreaker with the Tigers, they would be huge underdogs. I think Minnesota will get one in the Metrodome, but much more is a bunch to expect.

Red Sox vs. Angels - Angels won series 3-0

My pick: Red Sox in five games. These are two evenly matched teams. Maybe this is the year the Angels finally get past the BoSox, but I hate the Angels. The fan in me refuses to let me pick them, especially with numbers that give their opponent the slightest of edges.


Rockies vs. Phillies - Phillies won series 3-1

My pick: Rockies in four games. I'm picking with my heart here, as the Rockies are my favorite NL team. However, they finished the season as hot as they have been all year, and Raul Ibanez's defensive deficiencies should be exposed in Coors Field. It's not a huge stretch picking Colorado.

Cardinals vs. Dodgers - Dodgers won series 3-0

My pick: Cardinals in five games. The Dodgers have been fading all season, and the Cardinals are a much better team than the one that started the year. The formula is blind to both, so I think the odds are not so lopsided. However, the NL West featured way stiffer competition than the NL Central. Los Angeles was clearly the better team during the season, but the Cardinals have the best position player in this series (Albert Pujols) and the best pitcher (Chris Carpenter). It's hard to pick against that, especially against a fading team.