The Rotation Situation

Cliff Lee is starting April 30, according to Don Wakamatsu. Incidentally, his first start will be on Felix Hernandez bobblehead doll night. It feels like the sort of coincidence that has some sort of mysterious, cosmic meaning. I hope it is a some sort of sign of an impending Cy Young race between the two.

Anyway, with Lee back, someone has to leave the rotation. On opening day, the logical candidates were Doug Fister and Jason Vargas. However, both Fister and Vargas are pitching very well right now. The obvious guy to replace, based on what we've seen so far, is Ian Snell.

Snell may be a better pitcher than Fister or Vargas, and as they all accumulate more innings, that may begin to show. However, I think it is important for players performing at high levels to get priority, because quality production needs to be a priority of any winning organization. Thus, if I were Don Wakamatsu, this decision is fairly easy to make. Ian Snell is the odd man out, at least until Fister or Vargas cools down. I would call Snell into my office this afternoon too, informing him of the decision.

Why notify Snell almost two weeks in advance of Lee's return? It's thanks to the schedule. The Mariners have consecutive Thursdays off, and Snell's next scheduled day to start is this Thursday. If his spot is skipped, everyone else starts on their normal rest. With the groove everyone else is in, keeping everyone in their normal rhythm makes good sense. Snell would still make one more start before Cliff Lee's return, but it wouldn't be until April 27, in Kansas City. In the meantime, he could be an extra reliever.

The other advantage of skipping Snell this Thursday is that it allows Ryan Rowland-Smith to start next Wednesday in Kansas City. Then, there is an off-day, and then Cliff Lee's glorious return. That means that both Fister and Vargas's spots will be skipped in the process. So, after Cliff starts on April 30, and Felix on May 1, the Mariners can pick Fister, Vargas, or Snell to start that Sunday. With only one start for each of them between now and May 2, I don't see any way Snell could grab it. The May 2 spot would go to Fister or Vargas, with Fister being the front-runner.

Ian Snell is out of options though, so I wouldn't try to sneak him down to Tacoma. Instead, I would place him in the bullpen, and send Jesus Colome down to make room for Cliff Lee. Snell's stuff may translate well in the bullpen, and he is a better fit for a long relief role than Colome anyway.  I would like to see Snell take Vargas's spot in the rotation, but the performances of both pitchers can dictate that decision. For now, Vargas has earned his keep, and he may earn it all the way to Erik Bedard's return.

We will see what Wakamatsu does, but I think the best choice is to slide Ian Snell to the bullpen for the time being. I will be surprised if anyone but Snell or Vargas loses their rotation spot.

2010 Mariners Preview

It has been a while since I've woken up and known the M's are going to play a game that matters. That is the beauty of opening day for me.

By now you have probably checked out enough previews and predictions, so I will try to take a bit different approach. Instead of giving some broad overview, or trying to give exact numbers, I will focus on key changes, and key players. With this team, that's more than enough to write about.

So, here are my reasons the 2010 Mariners won't be just like the 2009 bunch.

First of all, the changes:

1. Chone Figgins replaces Adrian Beltre - It is debatable which of these two players is actually better, but let's not forget how bad Beltre's 2009 campaign was. He missed significant time with injuries, and even when playing, they made him a shell of the hitter he can be. Figgins in 2010 will blow away Beltre's 2009 production, even if the defense isn't as good. This is one of the biggest reasons to expect the M's offense to be better this year.
2. Casey Kotchman replaces Russell Branyan - Kind of an opposite argument here to the Figgins/Beltre one. With Branyan's back problems, it is pretty clear who is the superior player right now. However, there is no getting around the gaping hole Branyan's 2009 production at the plate leaves. Kotchman won't fill it, but he should at least hit for average, and he brings a much, much better glove with him to first. Casey is a very different player than Branyan, but overall I think he is a better replacement then most are giving him credit for right now.
3. Jack Wilson replaces Yuniesky Betancourt/Ronny Cedeno/et al - Jack isn't a great hitter, but he's definitely better than Yuni or Ronny was in 2009. His defense is light years ahead of virtually every shortstop too (especially Yuni). It's easy to point at Jack and say he is a reason this team won't score enough runs, but don't forget who he is replacing from 2009. He is a big reason this team has a better starting nine this year - and even a reason it is reasonable to expect the M's to score some more runs.
4. Milton Bradley replaces Endy Chavez/Michael Saunders - I don't care how good Bradley's legs are, the defense takes a hit with him out there. However, he is the superior hitter. Yet another reason this team will score some more runs, though not as clear-cut if this is a significant upgrade, considering the defense, and Bradley's well-documented past.
5. The starting rotation has more upside - Chris Jakubauskas, Garrett Olson, and Carlos Silva combined to make 25 starts for the 2009 Mariners. That's not going to happen this year. Ian Snell is in line to eat up a lion's share of those starts. Certainly, Snell is a question mark, but I'll take him over the trio he replaces. Furthermore, Cliff Lee is in line to take Jarrod Washburn's starts, and while Wash was surprisingly fantastic, I'll take Lee too.
6. Kanekoa Teixeira and Shawn Kelley are taking over middle relief - Both of these pitchers have question marks around their ability to handle this role, but would you rather have them, or the Miguel Batista/Garret Olson/Chris Jakubauskas cross-your-fingers-for-a-few-innings mix the M's had in that role in 2009? I thought so.
7. Brandon League is in the bullpen too - Brandon Morrow, Roy Corcoran, and Randy Messenger combined for 44 relief appearances last year. A healthy Sean White and Shawn Kelley may take some of those appearances, but many of them will likely be handed to Brandon League. That's a good thing.

There are key holdovers to watch too. Here are some particular situations worth watching:

• Ichiro will be worse, but how much worse? Ichiro had one of his best years in 2009. Age and regression to the mean should catch up to him in 2010. He can't be banked on to put an equally insane year, though he should still be great. However, on a team offensively challenged, this is worth pointing out, and worrying some about.
• How good will David Aardsma be? I liked Aardsma as a breakout candidate last year, but never expected him to be as good as he was. He isn't likely to keep his home run rate as low as he did last year, and he has been beaten around pretty hard in spring training too. I wonder how long Wak will stick with Aardsma in the closer's role. I think Mark Lowe takes over as early as mid-May. I'm that worried about Aardsma.
• How good will the catchers be? I mean this in a positive way. The M's have suffered through a couple seasons where the backstops have more or less been a black hole on offense. That shouldn't be the case this year. Both Rob Johnson and Adam Moore have some offensive upside, and in this case, even being below average is a noticeable improvement. Johnson and Moore are more than capable of that. Plus, gone are the days of pitchers whining about Kenji's pitch selection.
• Will Ken Griffey Jr. be better than last year? Supposedly, Griffey's knee has been bad for a few years, but is better now. For what it's worth, Griffey's walk rate increased significantly the past few years, and his BABIP went way down. There is a correlation, but that doesn't mean causation, especially at Griffey's advanced age. If the knee has really been that big of a problem, perhaps Griffey can bounce back more than almost anyone (including myself) thinks he can.
• How good is Franklin Gutierrez? As big as Guti's 2009 campaign was, 2010 is in some ways even bigger. He established that he is a good player, but how good? It's easy to look at his breakout season, and assume he will regress down towards his career rates in 2010. That's okay if that happens, but I'm just going to throw this out there: Guti finally got a chance to play every day. He flashed some serious power at times in 2009. The M's want to see more of that, along with more patience. They've seen enough of both out of Guti in spring training to toy around with hitting him third. What if he sticks in the third spot, and hits around 25 home runs? That would put him close to 100 RBIs, if not over. Combine that with a decent batting average, improved on-base percentage, elite defense (and the newfound love for defense in the media), and a pennant run by the M's, and Franklin Gutierrez might get some MVP consideration.

The 2009 Mariners befuddled many experts, and just as people started to pick out what was skill from luck, the roster changed drastically. The 2010 team has tons of new faces, and more than its fair share of question marks. Combine questions with a poor spring training, and it is not surprising that the M's have gone from a novel pick to do great things, to an overrated posse with obvious holes.

For me, the questions remain unanswered. About the only thing I am sure of is that this team will score some more runs. How many more though? Will the pitching and defense stay just as good too?

I don't know how good this team is, but I think guys like Franklin Gutierrez, Casey Kotchman, Milton Bradley, Erik Bedard, Ian Snell, and David Aardsma will go a long ways toward determining this team's fate. I just listed a quarter of the roster, and that's the point. Turn anywhere on this team, and there is a looming question mark. No matter how much the roster is analyzed, those answers won't come until the season starts to unfold.

Hopefully the answers are more good than bad.

2009 M's: Good To The Last Drop

Football is here, so it is easy to forget about the baseball season. It is especially easy since the Mariners likely aren't on their way to the postseason. However, the Mariners are almost as interesting to watch as ever. Here are some reasons to keep a close eye on the team in the midst of all the pigskin coverage:

1. I'll give you three reasons why in one fell swoop. After tonight's victory against Tampa Bay, the Mariners are 79-72 on the year. Three more wins secures a winning record. They have 11 games remaining. At this point, a winning season is a highly attainable goal, but no less remarkable. This team is looking at improving by more than 20 wins, which teams just don't do. A winning record, even if it's just 82-80, would be a big deal.
2. There is no guarantee Ken Griffey Jr. is coming back. He has been better than his .218 batting average suggests, even if his clubhouse contributions aren't considered. However, he isn't getting any younger. The M's face a challenging decision with him if he wants to come back. Enjoy him while he lasts, which may be only another week.
3. Felix Hernandez is in the thick of the AL Cy Young discussion. Today, the M's announced that he will get an extra start on the last day of the season. A separate post on Felix's chances may be warranted in the near future, but it's pretty clear him, Zack Grienke, or CC Sabathia will take home the honors. A few more wins would really help Felix's chances.
4. Matt Tuiasosopo's performance in the next week could have a profound impact on the offseason. If he earns some trust from Don Wakamatsu, he will be a more viable option to start somewhere on the infield. That could mean that the M's don't re-sign Beltre or Russell Branyan. Or (what I think is more likely), if they get both of those players back, Jose Lopez could be shopped around. He should have trade value, especially with the season he has put together at the plate. No matter what, Tui's performance in the next week will have an impact on the team's offseason plans.
5. Every start matters. What will the 2010 rotation look like, outside of Felix Hernandez, and probably also Ryan Rowland-Smith? It's anybody's guess. The competition is already underway. Brandon Morrow and Ian Snell both have the stuff, but lack control. Fister lacks stuff, but has the control. Guys like Jason Vargas, Luke French, and Garrett Olson are somewhere in between. They all will be in the conversation in spring training, but strong finishes from any of them won't be forgotten.

Of course, the end of the season would be more excited if a playoff berth was on the line. There is no way around that. Still, the 2009 Mariners will be interesting to watch until the final pitch. There is a reason to watch every game the rest of the way, and not just to imagine what the future might look like. Besides, I know I need something to forget those Frank Gore runs from last Sunday...

Snell and Wilson Coming To Seattle

Word is breaking that the Mariners and Pirates have pulled a swap involving seven players total. I probably should wait a little longer to make sure the deal is correct, but it looks like the trade is going to happen. Seattle acquires SS Jack Wilson and RHP Ian Snell from the Pirates for SS Ronny Cedeno, C/1B/let's be honest, DH Jeff Clement, RHP Nathan Adcock, RHP Brett Lorin, and RHP Aaron Pribanic. It was obvious something was up last night when Jeff Clement was pulled from the game in Tacoma, but nobody had this rumor.

The trade makes perfect sense from Pittsburgh's perspective. Wilson will be a free agent at year's end, assuming his player option is bought out as it should be. Snell didn't want to pitch for Pittsburgh ever again. In return they get a middle infielder to take Wilson's spot on the roster, a guy to place first base in the wake of the Adam LaRoche trade, and three young pitching prospects. I'm surprised they had enough leverage to get this much for these two guys.

However, the Mariners didn't get fleeced. Jack Wilson is a big upgrade at shortstop. He's always been a great defender, and he's been among the elite this year. Wilson is arguably as big of an upgrade over Cedeno on defense as Cedeno was over Betancourt. On top of that, Wilson isn't a great hitter, but he's Babe Ruth compared to what we've seen at shortstop most of the year. Because of how bad shortstop has been for the M's this year, acquiring Wilson might help the M's as much as Holliday helps the Cardinals. That sounds crazy, but might be true.

Ian Snell should not be overlooked either. He is under contract for several years. He has struggled the past season and a half in Pittsburgh, but has dominated in AAA. Relations were definitely icy between Snell and the Pirates front office, so a change of scenery is great for him. I'm a little worried Snell has some character issues because of the situation, but the Mariners have a secret weapon, Mike Sweeney. I swear he is the cure for clubhouse cancers.

Giving up five players is scary for a shortstop who may be here for only two months, and a pitcher with possible character issues. However, this isn't anywhere close to the package given up in the Erik Bedard trade. Ronny Cedeno can't be sent to the minor leagues (he's out of options), so he couldn't be sent to Tacoma to work on his hitting troubles. Jeff Clement had no future with the Mariners either. He hasn't caught in months, and Mike Carp is the clearly the first baseman of the future.

Of the trio of young pitchers included, I'm most disappointed to see Brett Lorin go. However, he is no Chris Tillman. Pribanic profiles as a back-of-the-rotation type at best, and Adcock has a pretty big arm but still not that great of command. The M's have many young arms ahead of these three in the system, and several arms from the 2009 draft look promising already. The prospects in this trade are replaceable, and the M's may have already found them in last June's draft.

Even though the Mariners gave up five younger players, this trade did not deplete the farm system. I'd argue it barely put a dent in it, actually, and in return the Mariners got a couple guys who will definitely improve the team significantly right now.

Interestingly, this trade makes the M's look like buyers. I would probably be selling right now, but I'm still fine with this deal. Keep in mind that most players will sneak through waivers, so the M's can sell in August if they really want to.

Felix, Washburn, Bedard, Snell, and RRS could be the best rotation in baseball down the stretch, especially playing behind what may be the best defense in baseball with the acquisiton of Wilson, and impending return of Adrian Beltre. That's not an outlandish stretch. If Beltre comes back with a healthy bat, the offense will look significantly better too. All of sudden, this team looks pretty decent. A below-average offense can work with the best pitching and defense in all of baseball.

I'm sure many will say this was too much to give up, and this isn't a team worth buying players for. I like the deal though. It pales in comparison to the marvelous J.J. Putz and Yuni Betancourt deals, but it is a fine one. I'd like to think that this team can make a surge with Beltre's return, especially with Snell and Wilson added to the roster. It's nice to at least give the team a chance to make a push once they get back to full strength. They deserve that chance with how hard they've played, and how admirably well they've hung tough with all the injuries.

The plot seems to continually thicken with the 2009 Mariners. A new day, a new way indeed.

UPDATE (11:56 AM PDT) - The Pirates reportedly will pay virtually all of Wilson and Snell's salaries the rest of this year. Jack Wilson is not in today's lineup for the M's, and he is not listed as an option on the bench. Also, early comments from Jack Z indicate he may pick up Wilson's option, meaning Jack is probably more than a rent-a-player. Clement is going to AAA for Pittsburgh, and all the pitchers will be going to A ball. Also, for a closer look at Pribanic and Lorin, check out my post about the Clinton LumberKings a few weeks ago.

Pirates Pair Could Fit M's

Pirates GM Neal Huntington said some strong words about RHP Ian Snell the other day. Snell, who has struggled the past couple seasons after signing a contract extension, was demoted to AAA. In his first start, he struck out 17 batters and was practically unhittable. Still, Huntington called Snell's contract extension a mistake, which is an awfully strong statement to make about a player currently under contract on your own team. The closest thing we have seen to this in the past couple years was when Bavasi started taking small shots at Erik Bedard last year, essentially blaming him for the trade not working out as expected.

Snell, even after a brilliant start in AAA, does not appear to be a part of Pittsburgh's plans anymore. His ERA is well over 5.00 for the past two seasons, and his walk rate has noticably increased this year, while his strikeout rate has sunk badly. At 27 years old, Snell is still young, but not an up-and-coming prospect. He looked like a pitcher on the rise a couple years ago, but after the past couple seasons it is hard to say what the future holds for him.

For a mistake of a contract, Snell's is not too bad. He is making $3 million this year, and will make $4.25 million next year, with a couple club options after that. The club options are pricy, but there appears to be no buyout. In addition to Snell, Pittsburgh has a shortstop they have been trying to ditch for a few years now, Jack Wilson. He is not a particularly great hitter, but is a good defender, and even at his offensive worst is significantly better than what the Mariners have fielded at shortstop this year. He is making $7.25 million this season, but to keep his extension from kicking in (which needs to happen), the remainder of the contract needs to be bought out for $600,000. So, in reality, Jack Wilson is making $7.85 million.

What if the Mariners tried to get both Snell and Wilson in a trade? Their combined salaries for this year (including Wilson's buyout) would be $10.85 million. The Mariners could start by offering Miguel Batista, who is making $9 million in the final year of his contract. The difference in money is already under $2 million, and this deal should already look somewhat appealing to the Pirates. They do not seem to care much about Jack Wilson anymore, and they get off the hook for the rest of Ian Snell's deal, which again they have publicly stated is a mistake. Throw in a middle infield replacement (a guy like Josh Wilson) and/or a marginal pitching prospect (Jesus Delgado, Andrew Baldwin, Doug Fister), and maybe Pittsburgh decides they have salvaged enough in this trade.

I will admit that Miguel Batista has done a nice job in his role this year. However, looking at his peripheral numbers, and what he has done over the course of his career, I think he is due to trail off. Besides, even if he does not, he is an impending free agent anyway, and at worst Snell can replace him in the bullpen, and Jack Wilson can be our starting shortstop the remainder of the year. Upgrading at shortstop by trading a middle reliever is good value.

This is not a trade the Mariners have to make, and they should not trade any significant part of their future to go after Ian Snell or Jack Wilson. Wilson is simply a rental player, but one that fits this team's needs well right now. Yuniesky Betancourt was starting to turn it around before he got hurt, but I still think Wilson is better than him right now by a significant margin. Batista is the perfect guy to trade for an overpriced rental player. As for Snell, he is still just 27 years old, his contract is not awful, and I have a hard time believing a completely washed up pitcher stikes out 17 in AAA. It looks to me that part of Snell's problem is that he no longer trusts his stuff, which would explain the spike in his walk rate. With comments like his contract is a mistake coming from Pittsburgh's front office, and that they are just trying to salvage something out of the deal, it is easy to see how he may lose confidence in himself. A change of scenery would do Snell good.

Both Ian Snell and Jack Wilson are guys that could help the Mariners. There are reasons both have been shopped, but no one has acquired them, so the price has to be right. However, the pieces might be there for a deal that satisfies both sides.