Dustin Ackley Gets The Call

Generally, I avoid stories that have already been covered by the excellent ensemble of reporters and bloggers that dutifully follow the Mariners. However, I have to say something about Dustin Ackley. I just have to. I first noticed him as a freshman at North Carolina, and imagined how good he could be. For a fleeting second, I even wondered how wonderful that left-handed stroke would look in Safeco.

That was a pipe dream. Tomorrow, it's reality.

Opening Day 2011

Don't expect recaps of every game on this blog, or many games at all for that matter. I recommend recaps on Lookout Landing if you want that sort of coverage.

This is opening day though, and what a delightful opener it was. It deserves a few thoughts:

• Something feels very "2011 Mariners" about having the first run of the season scored on a bases loaded walk. I can't explain why it felt that way, but it did. Anyone else get that same feeling? I think it helped that Jack Cust seemed genuinely pumped up about drawing the walk, with his little bat flip and fist pump. Really, after last season, I am okay with this team celebrating every run it scores.
• King Felix didn't dominate, but I would argue that we saw as complete of a performance as we will ever see out of him. I know I sound like some announcer desperately trying to be profound, but stick with me. When Felix dominates, he is untouchable. However, tonight we saw him have a rough first inning, then rebound, then battle, then seem to conserve pitches by inducing weak contact, and then blow away the A's with his nasty stuff in the ninth inning. I do not think it is a coincidence that two of his five strikeouts were the final two hitters he faced. Felix showed perseverance, craftiness, and then his pure talent. Frankly, he doesn't need all that when he's at his best. That's why I'd argue this is as complete of a look at Felix as we'll get.
• Honestly, I thought Trevor Cahill had better stuff than Felix tonight. Cahill's two-seemer was unreal. Its lateral movement had the Mariners frozen all night. However, it was a double-edged sword. While it allowed Cahill to rack up strikeouts, it also moved out of the strike zone a bunch. Both the walks and Ks upped his pitch count in a hurry. To the M's credit (I guess), they were content to sit around and watch a ton of Cahill's pitches.
• Between Cahill and the A's defense, I didn't see anything out of the M's offense tonight that gives me hope or despair. They sat around and watched Cahill for most of the first half of the game, and then allowed the A's to juggle the baseball around the diamond in the latter half. But hey, runs are runs, and every single one of them should be celebrated like a newborn child after what we saw last year.
• Michael Pineda got a fair amount of face time in the broadcast, because he seemed to be seated next to Felix much of the game. I'm not sure how much I believe in development through osmosis, but I know I want Pineda sitting next to Felix. I hope he thinks the only way he gets to stick in the majors is if he pitches just like Felix.
• By all accounts, Eric Wedge is the most intense manager the M's have had since Lou Piniella. It seemed like the Mariners were a little more animated than I was used to. This could be because it was opening day, it could simply be a fluke, or it could be something bigger. It is something to watch. Intensity isn't exactly a quantifiable thing, but if Wedge brings it, I think we can expect few errors, clean baserunning, longer at-bats, and a little bit of passion. At least tonight, I saw all of that.
• I have conflicting feelings about hit-and-runs. As a strategy, I hate it. I pretty much hate anything that takes pitch selection away from a hitter, especially since hitting and running also demands such a precise type of hit. However, the fan in me loves it when a hit-and-run is successful. It is poetry on grass. There is something so elegantly conniving about it. Aside from Felix's ninth inning, the highlight of the game for me was the successful hit and run executed by Jack Wilson and Brendan Ryan.

Really, almost everything looks beautiful to me on opening day. It is always a great day, especially when the Mariners win. As naive as it is of me, I always find myself believing that every team starts out with the same chance to do something special when they all line up 0-0 on the season.

Middle Infield Set

In a mildly surprising announcement, Brendan Ryan will be the M's starting shortstop, and Jack Wilson the starting second basemen. This officially puts an end to any hope Dustin Ackley would open the season with the Mariners, though really that was gone before pitchers and catchers reported.

What's surprising is that Ryan is at short, and Wilson is at second. The last time the Mariners tried shifting someone to second base wasn't all that long ago. It was Chone Figgins, last year, and he was horrible. Figgins also had 793.2 innings at second before the M's switched him over, whereas Jack Wilson has no experience at all.

Maybe this should not be surprising though. Brendan Ryan has some experience at second base, but much less than Figgins had. Really, he has played sparingly at second over the course of his career. Neither Wilson nor Ryan has played second base regularly, so one of them was going to be outside their comfort zone. The Mariners decided to push out the guy that is older, with worse legs, and likely worse defense at this point. Honestly, as great as Wilson was, Ryan is probably better. He is that good.

Aardsma's Trade Value

image from ESPN.com

It makes sense to trade David Aardsma. It has all off-season. His salary will go up, the Mariners don't have at one of money, and don't need a closer until they score a few more runs. Furthermore, David's value isn't likely to go any higher. It makes all the sense in the world.

However, if this report has any truth to it, David Aardsma may be around on opening day. Reports are that the M's are seeking an "impact" bat in return.

On some level, it makes a ton of sense to look for a bat with Aardsma. He is the Mariners most convenient trade chip right now, and their offense is still their biggest weakness. This isn't rocket science.

What exactly is an "impact" bat though?

Brendan Ryan Acquired

Finally, a move to feel really good about! Today, the Mariners acquired INF Brendan Ryan from the Cardinals for RHP Maikel Cleto.

I wrote about Cleto when he was added to the 40-man roster, and I've never been a big believer in him. I was concerned that the Mariners were too in love with him, but clearly, they were not. As much as I like Ryan, no team would trade a guy that they think will turn into an impact starting pitcher for him.

The 2011 Core

This is 2011 Mariners week at the Musings, as I said with the first post yesterday. I split the roster into three basic parts: the guaranteed contracts, the arbitration eligible players, and everyone else (the folks making the minimum salary with no way out unless the team ditches them). Today is a look at the guaranteed 2011 contracts.

A guaranteed contract is a big deal, both for a player and a team. On the team's side, all the money is guaranteed, even if the player is cut loose. It's a significant financial commitment. On the player's side, the system is set up to make them go about a decade in pro ball before hitting free agency.

The system is set up for players with guaranteed contracts, particularly big ones, to be the core of a team. Players need to be good in a team's eyes to warrant big money, and they have to have accumulated enough MLB service time to make it this far. We will see that the Mariners have a few exceptions to this rule, but the basic premises set up how I will evaluate the core.

The first question is as simple as they come: How good is the core? Is it a group a winning team can be built around? What are its strengths and weaknesses?

The second question is almost as important: Is the core worth the money it is getting paid? There is only so much money to go around, and if players are gobbling up more salary than they are worth, it means that the overall core probably isn't that good, and also limits the ability to improve it with outside help. This is why bad contracts are so crippling.

I will start with the second question and get back to the first. Here is a look at each 2011 Mariner with a guaranteed contract:

2010 Mariners Preview

It has been a while since I've woken up and known the M's are going to play a game that matters. That is the beauty of opening day for me.

By now you have probably checked out enough previews and predictions, so I will try to take a bit different approach. Instead of giving some broad overview, or trying to give exact numbers, I will focus on key changes, and key players. With this team, that's more than enough to write about.

So, here are my reasons the 2010 Mariners won't be just like the 2009 bunch.

First of all, the changes:

1. Chone Figgins replaces Adrian Beltre - It is debatable which of these two players is actually better, but let's not forget how bad Beltre's 2009 campaign was. He missed significant time with injuries, and even when playing, they made him a shell of the hitter he can be. Figgins in 2010 will blow away Beltre's 2009 production, even if the defense isn't as good. This is one of the biggest reasons to expect the M's offense to be better this year.
2. Casey Kotchman replaces Russell Branyan - Kind of an opposite argument here to the Figgins/Beltre one. With Branyan's back problems, it is pretty clear who is the superior player right now. However, there is no getting around the gaping hole Branyan's 2009 production at the plate leaves. Kotchman won't fill it, but he should at least hit for average, and he brings a much, much better glove with him to first. Casey is a very different player than Branyan, but overall I think he is a better replacement then most are giving him credit for right now.
3. Jack Wilson replaces Yuniesky Betancourt/Ronny Cedeno/et al - Jack isn't a great hitter, but he's definitely better than Yuni or Ronny was in 2009. His defense is light years ahead of virtually every shortstop too (especially Yuni). It's easy to point at Jack and say he is a reason this team won't score enough runs, but don't forget who he is replacing from 2009. He is a big reason this team has a better starting nine this year - and even a reason it is reasonable to expect the M's to score some more runs.
4. Milton Bradley replaces Endy Chavez/Michael Saunders - I don't care how good Bradley's legs are, the defense takes a hit with him out there. However, he is the superior hitter. Yet another reason this team will score some more runs, though not as clear-cut if this is a significant upgrade, considering the defense, and Bradley's well-documented past.
5. The starting rotation has more upside - Chris Jakubauskas, Garrett Olson, and Carlos Silva combined to make 25 starts for the 2009 Mariners. That's not going to happen this year. Ian Snell is in line to eat up a lion's share of those starts. Certainly, Snell is a question mark, but I'll take him over the trio he replaces. Furthermore, Cliff Lee is in line to take Jarrod Washburn's starts, and while Wash was surprisingly fantastic, I'll take Lee too.
6. Kanekoa Teixeira and Shawn Kelley are taking over middle relief - Both of these pitchers have question marks around their ability to handle this role, but would you rather have them, or the Miguel Batista/Garret Olson/Chris Jakubauskas cross-your-fingers-for-a-few-innings mix the M's had in that role in 2009? I thought so.
7. Brandon League is in the bullpen too - Brandon Morrow, Roy Corcoran, and Randy Messenger combined for 44 relief appearances last year. A healthy Sean White and Shawn Kelley may take some of those appearances, but many of them will likely be handed to Brandon League. That's a good thing.

There are key holdovers to watch too. Here are some particular situations worth watching:

• Ichiro will be worse, but how much worse? Ichiro had one of his best years in 2009. Age and regression to the mean should catch up to him in 2010. He can't be banked on to put an equally insane year, though he should still be great. However, on a team offensively challenged, this is worth pointing out, and worrying some about.
• How good will David Aardsma be? I liked Aardsma as a breakout candidate last year, but never expected him to be as good as he was. He isn't likely to keep his home run rate as low as he did last year, and he has been beaten around pretty hard in spring training too. I wonder how long Wak will stick with Aardsma in the closer's role. I think Mark Lowe takes over as early as mid-May. I'm that worried about Aardsma.
• How good will the catchers be? I mean this in a positive way. The M's have suffered through a couple seasons where the backstops have more or less been a black hole on offense. That shouldn't be the case this year. Both Rob Johnson and Adam Moore have some offensive upside, and in this case, even being below average is a noticeable improvement. Johnson and Moore are more than capable of that. Plus, gone are the days of pitchers whining about Kenji's pitch selection.
• Will Ken Griffey Jr. be better than last year? Supposedly, Griffey's knee has been bad for a few years, but is better now. For what it's worth, Griffey's walk rate increased significantly the past few years, and his BABIP went way down. There is a correlation, but that doesn't mean causation, especially at Griffey's advanced age. If the knee has really been that big of a problem, perhaps Griffey can bounce back more than almost anyone (including myself) thinks he can.
• How good is Franklin Gutierrez? As big as Guti's 2009 campaign was, 2010 is in some ways even bigger. He established that he is a good player, but how good? It's easy to look at his breakout season, and assume he will regress down towards his career rates in 2010. That's okay if that happens, but I'm just going to throw this out there: Guti finally got a chance to play every day. He flashed some serious power at times in 2009. The M's want to see more of that, along with more patience. They've seen enough of both out of Guti in spring training to toy around with hitting him third. What if he sticks in the third spot, and hits around 25 home runs? That would put him close to 100 RBIs, if not over. Combine that with a decent batting average, improved on-base percentage, elite defense (and the newfound love for defense in the media), and a pennant run by the M's, and Franklin Gutierrez might get some MVP consideration.

The 2009 Mariners befuddled many experts, and just as people started to pick out what was skill from luck, the roster changed drastically. The 2010 team has tons of new faces, and more than its fair share of question marks. Combine questions with a poor spring training, and it is not surprising that the M's have gone from a novel pick to do great things, to an overrated posse with obvious holes.

For me, the questions remain unanswered. About the only thing I am sure of is that this team will score some more runs. How many more though? Will the pitching and defense stay just as good too?

I don't know how good this team is, but I think guys like Franklin Gutierrez, Casey Kotchman, Milton Bradley, Erik Bedard, Ian Snell, and David Aardsma will go a long ways toward determining this team's fate. I just listed a quarter of the roster, and that's the point. Turn anywhere on this team, and there is a looming question mark. No matter how much the roster is analyzed, those answers won't come until the season starts to unfold.

Hopefully the answers are more good than bad.

Jack Wilson Signs

Not that Jack Wilson knows me, or cares, but I feel like an apology is in order. I'm only getting around to talking about his contract now. It was definitely a big enough deal to talk about the moment it was agreed to.

In case you have not heard, the Mariners have themselves a starting shortstop. Jack Wilson agreed to a 2 year, $10 million deal, with a few incentives tied to plate appearances. This voids the $8.5 million option on his previous contract.

This is a perfect deal for everyone involved. The Mariners save about $3 million dollars on the 2010 payroll, while Jack Wilson gets some longer term security. It is clear that Wilson wanted to come back, and is happy to be back. It was also clear, particularly after the JJ Hardy trade, that nobody fit the M's shortstop hole better than Wilson.

Jack's defense is worth about $5 million by itself, which is good because his hitting doesn't add much at all. He will be lauded for "professional" at-bats, but that's a nice way of saying he tries his best to make his outs productive somehow. I will take Wilson's at-bats to what we saw out of Yuni the last couple years though, in a heartbeat.

In the end, it's always good to have players around that want to be in your organization. Jack Wilson is one of those guys, and he was signed for more than fair market value, and he fills a hole on the roster as well as anyone available.

There is also a bigger message in this deal. When Jack Z made the trade with Pittsburgh, he always referred to Jack Wilson as a long-term solution at shortstop. Many (including myself) weren't sold on that. I know I thought the shortstop market may change this offseason, and that Jack Z would evaluate those options. In the end though, Z stuck to his word, even after Wilson struggled through an injury-plagued couple months in Seattle. With deals like Wilson's, Jack Z is proving that he is a man of his word, and that the M's will stick with their players.

The Mariners are creating the kind of environment that players want to play in. That's not enough to lure the Mark Teixeira's of the world to the northwest (money still talks), but Jack Z's aggressive approach to roster composition, combined with the environment he and Don Wakamatsu are fostering in the organization, make Seattle a more attractive destination.

2009 Offseason Plan (v 1.1)

As the offseason unfolds, I will update the plan I would have if I were the Mariners GM. This would be version 1.0, but the JJ Hardy deal already messed with my grand scheme considerably. Hence, this is version 1.1. The list is in order from most to least important, though I woudn't work linearly. If a scenario pops up where I can only have one or the other though, the higher one prevails:

1. Sign Felix Hernandez to a long-term extension. The time is NOW! My whole offseason would revolve around him. If a deal can't be worked out, it is time to explore trades involving him. The Bavasi bunch should have done this years ago, but here we are now, and he's going to get paid. The good news is that the M's only have about $40 million committed to the 2010 payroll. They have the flexibility to get this done. I'd prefer a four or five year deal, but I'd be willing to talk about six for Felix. Long-term contracts are risky, but I'm willing to gamble with Felix. He's still young, he does not have any documented arm problems, and he's way more than just a thrower. He's a fiery, competitive pitcher with a golden arm. I'll take my chances with that.
2. Keep Jack Wilson. I thought a deal involving Brandon Morrow and JJ Hardy had some potential, but no longer. I'd still prefer to work out an extension with Wilson that would cut his 2010 salary, but with all the payroll room, it is possible to pick up the option. It's clear that he needs to come back at this point. There are no other options that fit the team well.
3. Re-sign Adrian Beltre. The Mariners could use Matt Tuiasosopo or Jack Hannahan at third base, but neither are Adrian Beltre. He is still fairly young, still an unbelievable defender, and could be a bit of a bargain given the sub-par, injury-plagued year he just finished. Plus, word is that he was a clubhouse force.
4. Re-sign Russell Branyan. Russell the muscle won't be the same bargain he was last year, but he will still be worth the money. However, I'd like to bring him back as the DH if possible. That hinges more on some other priorities, namely the next one...
5. Add a bat, likely a first baseman, and likely through a trade. When I look at the roster, I see two prime trade chips: Brandon Morrow and Jose Lopez. If Beltre is re-signed, Matt Tuiasosopo can take over at second base. I think he will be a better defender, and he may not be much worse of a hitter. Somebody is bound to be intrigued by Lopez's power at second base. As for Morrow, I wonder if he will ever be a consistent starter, but teams would surely be interested in an arm of his caliber. I don't have a specific trade in mind, but my thought is to move Russell Branyan to DH, and acquire a first baseman (Russell isn't an incredible defender). Sean White and Mike Carp could also be part of a trade to get a first baseman.
6. Add a reliable starting pitcher through a trade. Whoever isn't dealt to get a bat is used to get a starter. He wouldn't be an amazing one, just a solid one. Maybe Carlos Silva can be that guy, but I'm not counting on it. The free agent pitching market is really thin, so I like the chances of bringing in the answer via a trade. I'd give Ben Sheets a look, but virtually nobody else in free agency. I think the most realistic idea is to use Morrow to get a bat, and then Lopez to get a starting pitcher.
7. Re-sign Ken Griffey Jr. and Mike Sweeney. I think that clubhouse benefits tremendously from one more year out of both of them. Sweeney and Branyan split time at DH, though I think Branyan would play close to every day by also serving as the backup first baseman. Griffey would be the primary left-handed bench bat. If both players are willing to accept those roles, they come back. Super sub Bill Hall gives the M's the ability to carry a couple guys who may never play the field.
8. Offer Erik Bedard a one-year MLB deal...as a reliever. The M's could use a lefty in the bullpen. Why not take a chance with Bedard? His stuff should translate really well into that role. The change should alleviate the injury concerns too. I have no idea what Bedard would think of this idea, but if the best he can get out of other clubs are spring training invitations, he would have to consider this deal. I've seen speculation that the Red Sox may take a chance on him though, like they did with Brad Penny and John Smoltz. That would not surprise me, and I think any guaranteed MLB contract with a promise to start would trump this offer.
9. Sign some veteran catchers to minor league deals. I would definitely go with Rob Johnson and Adam Moore as the catchers, but Kenji's departure leaves the overall depth a little thin. Someone with experience that's willing to play in Tacoma most of the season would be best. I'm sure there are several backstops out there that fit the bill. Keep one or two of them after they all compete in spring training.

The Mariners have limitless ways they could go this offseason, given all their financial flexibility, and improved organizational depth. They don't have amazing in-house options in many places, but in most places they at least have someone. Realistically, someone unproven is going to get a chance to play. My idea is that left field is Michael Saunders's to lose, and if he does, he gives it to Ryan Langerhans. Then, it's down to either Mike Carp or Matt Tuiasosopo getting a chance, and between those two I'd prefer Tui.

Still, outside help could (and should) come too. With so many options, I think prioritizing is as important as anything. There will always be lots of irons in the fire, and keeping organized amidst the chaos may be difficult. This front office is up to the challenge though.

Snell and Wilson Coming To Seattle

Word is breaking that the Mariners and Pirates have pulled a swap involving seven players total. I probably should wait a little longer to make sure the deal is correct, but it looks like the trade is going to happen. Seattle acquires SS Jack Wilson and RHP Ian Snell from the Pirates for SS Ronny Cedeno, C/1B/let's be honest, DH Jeff Clement, RHP Nathan Adcock, RHP Brett Lorin, and RHP Aaron Pribanic. It was obvious something was up last night when Jeff Clement was pulled from the game in Tacoma, but nobody had this rumor.

The trade makes perfect sense from Pittsburgh's perspective. Wilson will be a free agent at year's end, assuming his player option is bought out as it should be. Snell didn't want to pitch for Pittsburgh ever again. In return they get a middle infielder to take Wilson's spot on the roster, a guy to place first base in the wake of the Adam LaRoche trade, and three young pitching prospects. I'm surprised they had enough leverage to get this much for these two guys.

However, the Mariners didn't get fleeced. Jack Wilson is a big upgrade at shortstop. He's always been a great defender, and he's been among the elite this year. Wilson is arguably as big of an upgrade over Cedeno on defense as Cedeno was over Betancourt. On top of that, Wilson isn't a great hitter, but he's Babe Ruth compared to what we've seen at shortstop most of the year. Because of how bad shortstop has been for the M's this year, acquiring Wilson might help the M's as much as Holliday helps the Cardinals. That sounds crazy, but might be true.

Ian Snell should not be overlooked either. He is under contract for several years. He has struggled the past season and a half in Pittsburgh, but has dominated in AAA. Relations were definitely icy between Snell and the Pirates front office, so a change of scenery is great for him. I'm a little worried Snell has some character issues because of the situation, but the Mariners have a secret weapon, Mike Sweeney. I swear he is the cure for clubhouse cancers.

Giving up five players is scary for a shortstop who may be here for only two months, and a pitcher with possible character issues. However, this isn't anywhere close to the package given up in the Erik Bedard trade. Ronny Cedeno can't be sent to the minor leagues (he's out of options), so he couldn't be sent to Tacoma to work on his hitting troubles. Jeff Clement had no future with the Mariners either. He hasn't caught in months, and Mike Carp is the clearly the first baseman of the future.

Of the trio of young pitchers included, I'm most disappointed to see Brett Lorin go. However, he is no Chris Tillman. Pribanic profiles as a back-of-the-rotation type at best, and Adcock has a pretty big arm but still not that great of command. The M's have many young arms ahead of these three in the system, and several arms from the 2009 draft look promising already. The prospects in this trade are replaceable, and the M's may have already found them in last June's draft.

Even though the Mariners gave up five younger players, this trade did not deplete the farm system. I'd argue it barely put a dent in it, actually, and in return the Mariners got a couple guys who will definitely improve the team significantly right now.

Interestingly, this trade makes the M's look like buyers. I would probably be selling right now, but I'm still fine with this deal. Keep in mind that most players will sneak through waivers, so the M's can sell in August if they really want to.

Felix, Washburn, Bedard, Snell, and RRS could be the best rotation in baseball down the stretch, especially playing behind what may be the best defense in baseball with the acquisiton of Wilson, and impending return of Adrian Beltre. That's not an outlandish stretch. If Beltre comes back with a healthy bat, the offense will look significantly better too. All of sudden, this team looks pretty decent. A below-average offense can work with the best pitching and defense in all of baseball.

I'm sure many will say this was too much to give up, and this isn't a team worth buying players for. I like the deal though. It pales in comparison to the marvelous J.J. Putz and Yuni Betancourt deals, but it is a fine one. I'd like to think that this team can make a surge with Beltre's return, especially with Snell and Wilson added to the roster. It's nice to at least give the team a chance to make a push once they get back to full strength. They deserve that chance with how hard they've played, and how admirably well they've hung tough with all the injuries.

The plot seems to continually thicken with the 2009 Mariners. A new day, a new way indeed.

UPDATE (11:56 AM PDT) - The Pirates reportedly will pay virtually all of Wilson and Snell's salaries the rest of this year. Jack Wilson is not in today's lineup for the M's, and he is not listed as an option on the bench. Also, early comments from Jack Z indicate he may pick up Wilson's option, meaning Jack is probably more than a rent-a-player. Clement is going to AAA for Pittsburgh, and all the pitchers will be going to A ball. Also, for a closer look at Pribanic and Lorin, check out my post about the Clinton LumberKings a few weeks ago.

Trade Deadline Looms

A legitimate heat wave is sweeping the northwest, and my computer doesn't do well once it gets above about 70 degrees. With 90-100 degree heat for days on end, updating the musings has proven difficult, and will likely stay that way through the trade deadline. However, too much is going on to stay completely silent. This year's trade deadline is shaping up to be a pretty decent one. First of all, a recap of some deals over the past couple days:

• The Rockies acquired Rafael Betancourt from the Indians for minor leaguer Connor Graham. Colorado gets needed help in the bullpen. Cleveland gets a young starter that is sneaky good. Somehow Graham keeps the ball in the yard in the California league. Decent deal for both sides, but I'd say Cleveland got the better end of it.
• The Giants acquired Ryan Garko from the Indians for minor leaguer Scott Barnes. The Giants acquired some offense, which they desperately needed. Garko is relatively young, so he could be more than a short-term answer. As for Cleveland, they got a promising young pitching prospect. Barnes has an ERA under 3.00 in the California League, which is remarkable. He's a bit of a fly ball pitcher, but clearly hitters struggle to square up his pitches. Barnes is also a lefty, only increasing his value. This is definitely a trade that helps both teams. The Giants have pitching galore, but need offense. The Indians are okay on offense, but really need young pitchers. Both teams win in what looks like a very fair deal on paper.
• The Red Sox acquired Brian Anderson from the White Sox for Mark Kotsay. Kotsay was designated for assignment by Boston, so the trade is not shocking. Anderson is in some ways a younger version of Kotsay, though Kotsay in his prime was a superior hitter and defender. Still, Boston turned a non-asset at this point into a player with a similar skillset they can control for a few years. Anderson didn't fit in with Chicago at this point, and I'm not sure how Kotsay will fit any better. In the end, it's probably a next-to-meaningless deal, but I'd give a slight advantage to Boston.

At this point, what's way more interesting are the potential deals. Here are my bold predictions, based mostly on my gut and a little bit on rumors. I have no inside information at all, but I enjoy intrepid guesses as much as anyone:

• Victor Martinez is not going to be traded. It sounds to me like Cleveland's ownership loves him too much. He's not that expensive for how valuable he is either. With Ryan Garko traded, Cleveland can play Victor at first base more if they really want to give Carlos Santana a chance to play in the majors. Travis Hafner is starting to look old in the DH spot too. The bottom line is that Santana and Martinez can co-exist on Cleveland's roster, so clearing room for Carlos is not an issue.
• Roy Halladay is not going to be traded. Toronto GM J.P. Ricciardi has really botched this deal in my opinion. He said way too much in the media, though Halladay is a remarkable professional and did not let it impact his performance. Additionally, if some of the rumored deals nixed are true, I think Toronto's asking price has been too low. Still, with a low asking price, they can't get something done. I don't see a team trading the farm for Roy at this point, given how expensive he is, and that he is only signed through 2010.
• Cliff Lee is going to be traded to the Rays. I doubt Tampa Bay ever seriously entered the Roy Halladay sweepstakes, given how expensive he is. There are a few too many whispers about the Rays trying to make a big splash for them to not be looking to make a deal though. I'd put my money on Lee. He is much more affordable than Halladay for the next few years, and he complements the power arms that Tampa Bay has quite nicely. My guess is that Lee lands in Tampa Bay as part of a three-way deal that sends Kazmir to the third team involved, and both Tampa and the third team sends prospects to the Indians.
• Jarrod Washburn is going to be traded to the Phillies. At this point, Philadelphia has to have some pressure to acquire a starting pitcher. They've aggressively pursued Roy Halladay, but that deal is falling through. They will (or perhaps already have) turned their attention to Cliff Lee, but I like my darkhorse Rays to nab him. That leaves the Phillies scrambling with only a few days to go to get a legitimate starting pitcher. Since they've already convinced themselves they can part with some good prospects to get a good pitcher to help them now, I think a deal between the M's and Phillies could happen quickly. Surely shortstop Jason Donald would look interesting to Jack Z. Throw in a guy like Carlos Carrasco too and that might be enough, unless a bidding war over Washburn happens between all the teams that lost out on Halladay and Lee.
• Freddy Sanchez is going to the Giants. It makes way too much sense to not happen. I don't know who San Francisco will give up, but it will happen.
• Jack Wilson will not be traded. His expiring contract is not as big of a problem as Sanchez's vesting option, so I think Pittsburgh will focus on dealing Freddy. The Pirates will run out of time to put together a deal they like to ship Wilson away.
• The Twins will acquire Orlando Cabrera. Talks have heated up, and he seems quite expendable by the A's at this point. A deal is not imminent, but the two sides are talking, and will meet in the middle by July 31.
• The Brewers will acquire Justin Duchscherer. They don't want to mortgage much of their future, and Justin should come cheap since he has been injured. He'll certainly come cheaper than Halladay or Lee, or even Jarrod Washburn at this point.
• Adrian Gonzalez isn't going anywhere, but Heath Bell is. Too many teams want relievers, and San Diego has too many holes. My sleeper team to get Bell is the Angels. They seem determined to make a deal, and while they'd like a starting pitcher, I'm sure they would like the idea of Bell and Fuentes nailing down the end of ballgames. They could offer someone like Sean Rodriguez to San Diego, or maybe even Jose Arredando. That's purely speculation though.

The deadline should be fun. I think there will be significant movement, regardless of what happens with bigger guys like Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee. Too many teams in contention have glaring holes that they can patch with trades. I'm looking forward to seeing what deals actually happen, and if any of my "educated" random guesses come to fruition.

Pirates Pair Could Fit M's

Pirates GM Neal Huntington said some strong words about RHP Ian Snell the other day. Snell, who has struggled the past couple seasons after signing a contract extension, was demoted to AAA. In his first start, he struck out 17 batters and was practically unhittable. Still, Huntington called Snell's contract extension a mistake, which is an awfully strong statement to make about a player currently under contract on your own team. The closest thing we have seen to this in the past couple years was when Bavasi started taking small shots at Erik Bedard last year, essentially blaming him for the trade not working out as expected.

Snell, even after a brilliant start in AAA, does not appear to be a part of Pittsburgh's plans anymore. His ERA is well over 5.00 for the past two seasons, and his walk rate has noticably increased this year, while his strikeout rate has sunk badly. At 27 years old, Snell is still young, but not an up-and-coming prospect. He looked like a pitcher on the rise a couple years ago, but after the past couple seasons it is hard to say what the future holds for him.

For a mistake of a contract, Snell's is not too bad. He is making $3 million this year, and will make $4.25 million next year, with a couple club options after that. The club options are pricy, but there appears to be no buyout. In addition to Snell, Pittsburgh has a shortstop they have been trying to ditch for a few years now, Jack Wilson. He is not a particularly great hitter, but is a good defender, and even at his offensive worst is significantly better than what the Mariners have fielded at shortstop this year. He is making $7.25 million this season, but to keep his extension from kicking in (which needs to happen), the remainder of the contract needs to be bought out for $600,000. So, in reality, Jack Wilson is making $7.85 million.

What if the Mariners tried to get both Snell and Wilson in a trade? Their combined salaries for this year (including Wilson's buyout) would be $10.85 million. The Mariners could start by offering Miguel Batista, who is making $9 million in the final year of his contract. The difference in money is already under $2 million, and this deal should already look somewhat appealing to the Pirates. They do not seem to care much about Jack Wilson anymore, and they get off the hook for the rest of Ian Snell's deal, which again they have publicly stated is a mistake. Throw in a middle infield replacement (a guy like Josh Wilson) and/or a marginal pitching prospect (Jesus Delgado, Andrew Baldwin, Doug Fister), and maybe Pittsburgh decides they have salvaged enough in this trade.

I will admit that Miguel Batista has done a nice job in his role this year. However, looking at his peripheral numbers, and what he has done over the course of his career, I think he is due to trail off. Besides, even if he does not, he is an impending free agent anyway, and at worst Snell can replace him in the bullpen, and Jack Wilson can be our starting shortstop the remainder of the year. Upgrading at shortstop by trading a middle reliever is good value.

This is not a trade the Mariners have to make, and they should not trade any significant part of their future to go after Ian Snell or Jack Wilson. Wilson is simply a rental player, but one that fits this team's needs well right now. Yuniesky Betancourt was starting to turn it around before he got hurt, but I still think Wilson is better than him right now by a significant margin. Batista is the perfect guy to trade for an overpriced rental player. As for Snell, he is still just 27 years old, his contract is not awful, and I have a hard time believing a completely washed up pitcher stikes out 17 in AAA. It looks to me that part of Snell's problem is that he no longer trusts his stuff, which would explain the spike in his walk rate. With comments like his contract is a mistake coming from Pittsburgh's front office, and that they are just trying to salvage something out of the deal, it is easy to see how he may lose confidence in himself. A change of scenery would do Snell good.

Both Ian Snell and Jack Wilson are guys that could help the Mariners. There are reasons both have been shopped, but no one has acquired them, so the price has to be right. However, the pieces might be there for a deal that satisfies both sides.