Aardsma's Trade Value

image from ESPN.com

It makes sense to trade David Aardsma. It has all off-season. His salary will go up, the Mariners don't have at one of money, and don't need a closer until they score a few more runs. Furthermore, David's value isn't likely to go any higher. It makes all the sense in the world.

However, if this report has any truth to it, David Aardsma may be around on opening day. Reports are that the M's are seeking an "impact" bat in return.

On some level, it makes a ton of sense to look for a bat with Aardsma. He is the Mariners most convenient trade chip right now, and their offense is still their biggest weakness. This isn't rocket science.

What exactly is an "impact" bat though?

M's, Feller, and More From Cyberspace

Several things have been going on in the baseball world that I've wanted to write about, but me and my urge to spread holiday cheer to people I see face-to-face on a regular basis have kept me away from the blogosphere.

Luckily, several great writers have already said lots of what I'd like to talk about. So, instead of stealing their ideas, I'll link to them:

Joe Blanton Traded to Phillies

The Oakland A's traded their second starting pitcher away in as many weeks, this time dealing RHP Joe Blanton to the Phillies for LHP Josh Outman, 2B Adrian Cardenas, and OF Matthew Spencer. This is not nearly as big of a deal as the Rich Harden one, but still points towards the A's plan to re-stock their system with young players that will come of age (hit free agency) in their new ballpark in Fremont (when they have a bigger budget). In the wake of the Rich Harden deal, and going back to the off-season where Dan Haren and Nick Swisher were traded away, this pales in comparison. Nonetheless, a Billy Beane deal should never be overlooked:

The Phillies side - Welcome to the closest thing to the mid '90s Mariners since...well, the mid '90s Mariners. Philadelphia's lineup is loaded, but their pitching is rather weak, with the major exception of Cole Hamels, a tall lefty with a penchant for strikeouts (I'm not kidding, this team is similar to those mid 90's M's squads). Jamie Moyer and Kyle Kendrick are both somewhere between serviceable and solid, so the rotation could really use at least two arms. However, with limited depth in the farm system, getting impact pitchers may be tough. Enter Joe Blanton, who at the very least will eat up some innings and did not cost the team everyone down on the farm. He is an upgrade over Adam Eaton, the man he is likely to replace, and as an added bonus he won't hit free agency until 2010.

However, how well Blanton will do is up for debate. Conventional wisdom says that he should fare a little better in the NL because a talent gap still exists. However, while every other pitcher on the A's staff seems to produce beyond their ability level, Joe Blanton was having a worse year than expected. The rise of the entire pitching staff is likely due to an underrated defense, and yet Blanton is still worse despite that. So, between going to a worse defense and a worse park for pitchers, I do not see Blanton gaining anything from playing a bit worse competition. Still, I am not sure the Phillies could get a better pitcher for the price, especially when Blanton's favorable contract situation is also considered.

The Athletics side - Trade rumors have swirled around Joe Blanton for a very long time, and this is one of the few guys the A's have traded in recent memory at less than peak value. They very likely would have received a better package for him if they had traded him in the off-season, thanks to a sub-par showing thus far in 2008. That does not make this a disappointing deal necessarily though.

Blanton was the A's opening day starter, but at this point he was pretty clearly the fifth best starter in their rotation, even with Sean Gallagher replacing Rich Harden. Oakland also understands that their underrated defense has helped their pitching staff produce beyond expectations, making Joe Blanton's disappointing season even more disappointing than it may seem at first glance. Thus, even though Blanton's value has dropped some since last off-season, he probably is still overrated, especially in the trade deadline market, where teams tend to be willing to give up more for starting pitchers.

Oakland received three prospects in this deal, Matthew Spencer, Josh Outman, and Adrian Cardenas. I do not think Spencer will amount to much, though he is still only 22 years old. If he amounts to something, it will be with a powerful bat. Outman is a 23-year-old lefty in AA right now with both starting and relieving experience. What the A's will have him do in their system I do not know. Overall, his numbers are quite good, but not eye-popping. He seems to be a safe bet to make the majors, but be closer to a spare part than permanent fixture.

The best player Oakland got in this trade is Adrian Cardenas. He is just 20 years old, and holding his own well in high A right now. He has good speed, which should also mean good range at second base. He also already hits for good average, and shows a good approach at the plate. Cardenas is still a minimum of two years away from the majors, but he should be a good starting option at second base once he develops.

Bottom line - This should be a trade that helps both sides. Joe Blanton does upgrade the Phillies starting staff, and they certainly could afford to give up a second base prospect with Chase Utley entrenched there for many years to come. As for the A's, I think this deal is remarkably good for them. Gio Gonzalaez and Trevor Cahill both look like great starters down the road, so they will not have any problem replacing Joe Blanton in their long-term plan. In the short term, Gonzalez is also an option, but I think they should give Dallas Braden a look. He performed very poorly when given a chance last year, but his AAA numbers are too good over the last two years to not give him a chance. I would not be surprised if Braden ends up being an upgrade over what they have got out of Blanton this year. It would wreak of Billy Beane magic.

This trade is not badly lop-sided, but I still think Oakland got the better end of it. They have in-house options to fill Blanton's spot that are likely at least as good as Blanton has been. In the long-term, they definitely have guys who look even better. If I were the Phillies I would have tried to keep Outman out of the deal, given that they are trading for pitching because their pitching is thin in the first place, and Outman is ultimately what tips the scale in favor of the A's for me in this deal. However, it is not like Outman is going to make this deal look awful for Philadelphia.

In the end, this trade proves once again how bold, borderline insane, and brilliant Billy Beane is. Is there another GM that would trade two pitchers the caliber of Harden and Blanton mid-season, and seriously believe their team can still contend? I am not sure any other GM would even be allowed to do what Beane has done in the past year. He continues to be proactive in a sport where most are reactive, and above all, he understands how to maintain the upper hand in bargaining like no other. Beane has some old-fashioned traits that are integral to his success; he is more than Moneyball and sabermetrics.

2007 Winter Meetings Predictions

The Winter Meetings are almost here, and with them will come some notable trades and free agent signings. This year could be especially good because there are some very big names being dangled by ballclubs. Here is my best attempt to provide some bold, yet realistic, predictions:

• The first big story is going to be Johan Santana, and if the rumors are true, a final decision on whether to trade him or not will come in the next 24 hours. It is being reported that the Yankees have submitted their final offer, and have told the Twins they must accept it by tomorrow or it will be rescinded. The Twins have been smart about these trade discussions, and have the Red Sox and Yankees in a bidding war that has reportedly brought Phil Hughes and Jacoby Ellsbury, both thought to be untouchable at first, into the discussion. However, it is clear at this point that both teams have submitted their best offers, and now it is up to the Twins to decide if either offer is worth pulling the trigger on. Of course, even if Minnesota agrees to one of the deals, Johan will likely only waive his no-trade clause if he gets a contract extension that makes him the highest paid pitcher in baseball history. I'm sure there are split opinions within the Twins organization on whether to pull the trigger or not, and between that and the difficulties of hammering out an astronomical contract in short amount of time, I think somehow or another Johan Santana will still be a Twin when the meetings are over.
• Miguel Cabrera will not be a Marlin by the end of the meetings. Not much has come out about him in the past week, but I believe a deal for him is far from dead. It sounded like the Angels had come all the way up to the Marlins' full initial asking price for Cabrera, and all of sudden the Marlins decided to ask for a bunch more to make the deal happen. This ticked off the Angels, but the two sides will likely strike up conversation again at the winter meetings. Personally, I think the Marlins are willing to take the Angels offer, but really like what the Dodgers could potentially offer. My guess is that Florida is trying to create a bidding war between the two of them to extract as much as they can out of one of the teams for Miguel Cabrera. It's good, hard negotiating, which is what the team should use with such a valuable player as Cabrera. The only question is if they were so hard that they turned the Angels off for good. It seems like the Angels are hell-bent on winning though, sparing no expense and guarding no prospect, so I think it would nearly be impossible for the Marlins to disgust the Angels so badly that they would lose all interest in Miguel Cabrera . Unless the Dodgers decide in the next few days that Clayton Kershaw and Matt Kemp can go to the Marlins, I expect to see the Marlins trade Miguel Cabrera to the Angels for Howie Kendrick, Jeff Mathis, Joe Saunders, and Reggie Willits.
• The Mariners will walk away from the winter meetings with a new starting pitcher. The rumor tonight is that they have given Hiroki Kuroda a 4-year, $44 million offer, and I believe he will accept that. In addition, Kuroda will be the biggest free agent signing that any team makes during the winter meetings (not a real bold prediction looking at the free agents available). Even if the M's don't land Kuroda, they will trade for someone. They are not leaving these winter meetings without a new starting pitcher.
• No one will walk away with either Joe Blanton or Dan Haren. Anyone who has read Moneyball and remembers Billy Beane's trading rules knows that he will never do a deal because he needs to. The Mets are the logical fit, but they do not have the pieces to get a trade done now that they got rid of Milledge, because I doubt the A's care about Carlos Gomez's speed all the much. The only reason Beane is entertaining offers for either pitcher is because the free agent pitching market is so weak, and so many teams seem desperate for pitching. Beane understands the principle of supply and demand, and that he has the kind of high ground that allows him to leave the bargaining table unless he gets everything he wants. The bottom line is that a team will have to blow away the A's to acquire either Blanton or Haren, which no team is willing to do.
• The Rangers will be rumored to be after Orioles starter Erik Bedard, but not come close to acquiring him. Admittedly, I am pulling this one completely out of thin air, but it makes too much sense and I am trying to make bold predictions. Texas desperately needs starting pitching, wants to make a splash this off-season, and has plenty of money to burn since Torii Hunter did not sign with them. There are already murmurs that Baltimore will listen to offers for Bedard, and even if Texas never actually inquires, at the very least some reporter will make this Bedard-Texas connection and spin it into an inside scoop.

There are five bold predictions for the winter meetings. Whether any of them are correct will be known by Wednesday.

Cy Young Winner On the Move?

With the baseball winter meetings set to commence next week, plenty of trade rumors will begin to sprout and circulate. Most of them are bogus, but every now and then a rumor does come to fruition. The key to navigating through the myriad of smoke screens is following the transaction wire for supposedly minor deals leading up to the meetings. Today, one of those "minor" deals went down with the Athletics signing free agent starter Esteban Loaiza to a multi-year contract. The acquisition of Loaiza is not a big deal but why the A's acquired him is.

With Esteban Loaiza, Oakland now has seven legitimate starters on their 40 man roster: Barry Zito, Rich Harden, Dan Haren, Joe Blanton, Kirk Saarloos, Joe Kennedy, and now Esteban Loaiza. Only five will actually be starters for the Athletics next year. So, who are the two odd men out? Certainly not Loaiza, since the A's just signed him. It is hard to imagine Harden, Haren, Blanton, or Kennedy being left out either, considering how young they are and, more importantly, how good and inexpensive they are. As for Kirk Saarloos, he has a fair amount of experience coming out of the bullpen, so he could very well start the season as a long reliever until one of the starters inevitably misses a start. That leaves only one pitcher unaccounted for: Barry Zito. Most teams would drool over the possibility of acquiring a Cy Young Award winner, especially one with several prime years left like him. Furthermore, the A's could save money by dealing him and other teams would consider his $8.5 million salary a bargain thanks to the ridiculous free agent market set for pitchers this year (see this for more on the market).

So, when Barry Zito's name comes up in trade rumors, believe it. Since the A's signed Esteban Loaiza, it is all but a foregone conclusion that he will pitch elsewhere in 2006.