Bonderman Signed, Others Still Available

The Mariners signed Jeremy Bonderman to a minor league contract with an invitation to spring training.  In other words, he will show up in Peoria with a shot to crack the Mariners starting rotation. If he doesn't, the M's aren't out anything really. Bonderman hasn't pitched anywhere competitively for two full seasons so I don't expect him to make the roster. However, this is a risk-free move, so there is nothing to complain about.

Bonderman's signing speaks to a need on the Mariners roster. The starting five looks something like this as of right now:

1. Felix Hernandez
2. Hisashi Iwakuma
3. Erasmo Ramirez
4. Blake Beavan
5. Hector Noesi/Danny Hultzen/Andrew Carraway/pray for rain

That's an interesting rotation in every sense of the word. Adding others to the mix would make the interest a little less dangerous.

Bedard Nets Pair of Young Hitters

This post is a day late, and I apologize, but better late than never. I probably don't even have time tonight, but I can only wait so long to say something. No need to worry - I was with good baseball friends when the trade deadline came and went, so I knew immediately. I just didn't have time to write immediately.

Before going much further, I probably should say what this post is all about. The Red Sox acquired Erik Bedard from the Mariners for Chieh-Hsien Chiang and Trayvon Robinson, both 23-year-old outfielders. Boston had to acquire Robinson from the Dodgers, so this is a three-team deal.

We probably all have a pretty decent idea what the Mariners just gave up. When Bedard is healthy, he is a darn good starter. Sometimes he racks up high pitch counts, but he typically is tough to square up. When Bedard's curveball is really working, he can be particularly tough. Erik certainly had a strong comeback campaign, and this trade reflects that. He has been untradeable for a few years, and now a contender wanted him to bolster their staff.

The inclusion of Trayvon Robinson says plenty about the deal. Clearly, the Red Sox wanted Bedard rather bad, because it is a bit of a hassle to pull an additional deal just to get another done. It also says something about how much the Mariners valued Bedard. They clearly had a type of player, or list of specific players, that would get the deal done. They did not budge until they got what they wanted. Otherwise, this would not have involved a third team.

Thoughts on Opening Eve 2011

I just finished watching the Giants and Dodgers play a quintessential pitcher's duel, and I eagerly await the debut of the Mariners tomorrow. In the meantime, a random assortment of thoughts:

• In 2003, Bob Melvin made his managerial debut on opening night, and it was also in Oakland. That's about all that is the same between Eric Wedge and him, but it was an excuse to unearth the box score from that game. It is one of those random games I vaguely remember for no good reason. I remember the M's looking bad, and they did in a 5-0 loss. I didn't remember Mark McLemore starting at shortstop, Ben Davis at catcher, or Giovanni Carrera pitching a scoreless eighth. This is a team that won 93 games. Therefore, if the M's are shut out tomorrow, I will expect a 93-win season.

The Heartwarming Erik Bedard

Earlier this week, the Mariners signed Erik Bedard to a non-guaranteed contract. Or, just as accurately, Erik Bedard signed a non-guaranteed contract with the Mariners. On paper, it does not look like a big deal, particularly from a financial standpoint.

However, it is a big deal.

Mild Surprises At Non-Tender Deadline

Yesterday was the deadline for teams to tender arbitration-eligible players. In more natural terms, that means yesterday was the last chance for teams to decide they would bring back players without contracts, and without enough service time to walk away in free agency.

Even that last statement doesn't make a whole lot of sense, because non-tendered players become free agents. Some people say baseball's roster rules are excessively complex. I say they are just complex enough to be amusing.

The Mariners did not make any huge moves, but each is worth a few thoughts.

Roster Purge Begins

I like to stick with Major League Baseball's etiquette and not talk about anything but the postseason while the postseason is happening, so it's time to talk about the Mariners again!

Honestly, though, we all needed a break from the Mariners after such a disastrous season. There were things I almost wrote about, but then reminded myself how uninteresting those things would be in the midst of meaningful and interesting baseball. Now the postseason is over though, meaning every team is relevant again, even the Seattle Mariners.

Also, the Mariners have been very busy in the few days since baseball's moratorium on news has lifted. Here are some quick-hitters on all the moves:

Erik Bedard, The Sequel

He's back, and this time he didn't cost the farm, and he isn't expected to be an ace. Erik Bedard is returning, to the tune of $1.5 million guaranteed with boatloads of incentives that could net him up to $8.5 million when it is all said and done.

The deal itself is another good one. Yes, Bedard has some serious injury concerns. However, is he that much worse than Ben Sheets, who got $10 million guaranteed from the A's? Here are their cumulative numbers from the last three seasons, side-by-side:

	Erik Bedard	Ben Sheets
Game Started	58	55
Innings	346	339.2
Hits	276	319
Walks	128	74
Strikeouts	383	264
Home Runs	36	34
WHIP	1.17	1.16
ERA	3.20	3.40

How exactly did one of these guys get $10 million guaranteed, while the other got only $1.5 million (plus lots of incentives)?

Also, if you care about the difference in leagues (and you should), Sheets compiled his numbers in the National League, which has clearly been weaker for many years now. Furthermore, Sheets missed ALL of last year, while Bedard missed significant parts of the last two years. Maybe that points to more chronic injury concerns for Erik, but at the same time, I think it makes him less of an enigma heading into this season.

Given that Bedard is guaranteed to miss at least a few months, I can see how Sheets would net more guaranteed money. The gap between the contracts is too extreme though.

Anyway, that's all to say that this is a good deal for the Mariners, based on the market set this off-season. However, what does this deal do for the Mariners on the field?

The short answer is nothing, and as the season rolls along, hopefully something. Bedard probably comes back sometime in June, and he will be rusty. It is one thing to get back on the field, and another to regain form. This could especially be the case with Bedard, considering his big pitch is a devastating curve ball. The thing has so much movement it was hard for him to control even when he was at his best, as evidenced by all the walks. Even if Bedard retains his curve's devastating movement after arm surgery, he will have to rediscover his feel for it. That likely translates to lots of walks, which means many precarious (and brief) outings.

However, the upside is inescapable. What if Bedard rounds back into form after a couple months back on the mound? He should get sharper as the season progresses. The M's could roll out three pitchers capable of completely shutting down teams on a routine basis. In a playoff series, that would be terrifying for an opponent.

The terms of the deal are interesting too. Although the M's budget is unknown, it seems unlikely that they had $8.5 million left to spend. I seriously doubt that Bedard earns all the incentives, even though I have no idea what it takes for them to kick in. Still, ownership had to sign off on the deal, which means they are willing to potentially pay that much if everything goes a certain way. I'd think part of the reason is because, realistically, if Erik reaches his incentives, the M's have three aces, and that is probably enough to make the playoffs.

Still, it's worth noting what this deal signals about what we don't know. I think part of the reason Jack Z adamantly refutes budget rumors is because it is probably fluid. He will lobby for more money if a deal warrants it, and I think he did to make the Bedard deal happen. Ownership seems to be open to Z's persuasion too, and trusts him enough to go potentially beyond budget if it means winning big.

What a difference a couple years makes. Erik Bedard came to the Mariners the anointed ace, with all the pressure to be the missing piece. He came to Seattle a little surly, very stand-offish, and with a promise to test free agency when he got the chance. With how things went, it was so easy to hate him.

Now, Bedard comes back on an incentive-laden deal. He said Seattle was his top choice, and he sees himself as starter 3A once healthy. This is not the same pitcher, or situation, but ironically enough, the stage is set for him to be the missing piece the M's thought they were getting in the first place.

Sequels tend to be disappointments, but here's hoping that this one is different. There are good reasons to think it will be too.

2009 Offseason Plan (v 1.1)

As the offseason unfolds, I will update the plan I would have if I were the Mariners GM. This would be version 1.0, but the JJ Hardy deal already messed with my grand scheme considerably. Hence, this is version 1.1. The list is in order from most to least important, though I woudn't work linearly. If a scenario pops up where I can only have one or the other though, the higher one prevails:

1. Sign Felix Hernandez to a long-term extension. The time is NOW! My whole offseason would revolve around him. If a deal can't be worked out, it is time to explore trades involving him. The Bavasi bunch should have done this years ago, but here we are now, and he's going to get paid. The good news is that the M's only have about $40 million committed to the 2010 payroll. They have the flexibility to get this done. I'd prefer a four or five year deal, but I'd be willing to talk about six for Felix. Long-term contracts are risky, but I'm willing to gamble with Felix. He's still young, he does not have any documented arm problems, and he's way more than just a thrower. He's a fiery, competitive pitcher with a golden arm. I'll take my chances with that.
2. Keep Jack Wilson. I thought a deal involving Brandon Morrow and JJ Hardy had some potential, but no longer. I'd still prefer to work out an extension with Wilson that would cut his 2010 salary, but with all the payroll room, it is possible to pick up the option. It's clear that he needs to come back at this point. There are no other options that fit the team well.
3. Re-sign Adrian Beltre. The Mariners could use Matt Tuiasosopo or Jack Hannahan at third base, but neither are Adrian Beltre. He is still fairly young, still an unbelievable defender, and could be a bit of a bargain given the sub-par, injury-plagued year he just finished. Plus, word is that he was a clubhouse force.
4. Re-sign Russell Branyan. Russell the muscle won't be the same bargain he was last year, but he will still be worth the money. However, I'd like to bring him back as the DH if possible. That hinges more on some other priorities, namely the next one...
5. Add a bat, likely a first baseman, and likely through a trade. When I look at the roster, I see two prime trade chips: Brandon Morrow and Jose Lopez. If Beltre is re-signed, Matt Tuiasosopo can take over at second base. I think he will be a better defender, and he may not be much worse of a hitter. Somebody is bound to be intrigued by Lopez's power at second base. As for Morrow, I wonder if he will ever be a consistent starter, but teams would surely be interested in an arm of his caliber. I don't have a specific trade in mind, but my thought is to move Russell Branyan to DH, and acquire a first baseman (Russell isn't an incredible defender). Sean White and Mike Carp could also be part of a trade to get a first baseman.
6. Add a reliable starting pitcher through a trade. Whoever isn't dealt to get a bat is used to get a starter. He wouldn't be an amazing one, just a solid one. Maybe Carlos Silva can be that guy, but I'm not counting on it. The free agent pitching market is really thin, so I like the chances of bringing in the answer via a trade. I'd give Ben Sheets a look, but virtually nobody else in free agency. I think the most realistic idea is to use Morrow to get a bat, and then Lopez to get a starting pitcher.
7. Re-sign Ken Griffey Jr. and Mike Sweeney. I think that clubhouse benefits tremendously from one more year out of both of them. Sweeney and Branyan split time at DH, though I think Branyan would play close to every day by also serving as the backup first baseman. Griffey would be the primary left-handed bench bat. If both players are willing to accept those roles, they come back. Super sub Bill Hall gives the M's the ability to carry a couple guys who may never play the field.
8. Offer Erik Bedard a one-year MLB deal...as a reliever. The M's could use a lefty in the bullpen. Why not take a chance with Bedard? His stuff should translate really well into that role. The change should alleviate the injury concerns too. I have no idea what Bedard would think of this idea, but if the best he can get out of other clubs are spring training invitations, he would have to consider this deal. I've seen speculation that the Red Sox may take a chance on him though, like they did with Brad Penny and John Smoltz. That would not surprise me, and I think any guaranteed MLB contract with a promise to start would trump this offer.
9. Sign some veteran catchers to minor league deals. I would definitely go with Rob Johnson and Adam Moore as the catchers, but Kenji's departure leaves the overall depth a little thin. Someone with experience that's willing to play in Tacoma most of the season would be best. I'm sure there are several backstops out there that fit the bill. Keep one or two of them after they all compete in spring training.

The Mariners have limitless ways they could go this offseason, given all their financial flexibility, and improved organizational depth. They don't have amazing in-house options in many places, but in most places they at least have someone. Realistically, someone unproven is going to get a chance to play. My idea is that left field is Michael Saunders's to lose, and if he does, he gives it to Ryan Langerhans. Then, it's down to either Mike Carp or Matt Tuiasosopo getting a chance, and between those two I'd prefer Tui.

Still, outside help could (and should) come too. With so many options, I think prioritizing is as important as anything. There will always be lots of irons in the fire, and keeping organized amidst the chaos may be difficult. This front office is up to the challenge though.

A Magical Start

First of all, accept a hearty apology from me for a lack of activity to start 2009. Long story short, I have all sorts of commitments outside of the Mariners Musings that will not go away until mid June. It's all I can do to keep track of the Mariners and all the news they are making this year.

The season could not be starting any better for the Mariners. They are 7-2 (stunning enough), and have a 3 game lead in the AL West (perhaps even more stunning). The M's have already swept the A's, on the road no less, and guaranteed a series win against the Angels. To top it all off, a bevy of exciting and memorable plays have taken the hot start and made it magical.

Seriously, what is the signature moment of the season so far? Is it Ken Griffey Jr.'s opening day home run? Is it the standing ovation(s) Griffey received in the home opener? Perhaps it is Griffey's 400th career homer, a mammoth shot where he dropped his bat and watched, just like in his glory days? Or maybe the return of Ichiro is the signature moment so far, when he hit the grand slam on a full count in the seventh to blow open what had been a close game. As cool as Felix's grand slam was last year, there was no moment in 2008 like a handful we have already had in 2009.

Erik Bedard looks like an ace, nothing falls in the outfield anymore, Griffey is bringing back memories of the mid-'90s, and the M's are off to their best start since 2001. Admittedly, the team has some issues that are eventually going to pop up. They are converting virtually every scoring opportunity right now, so the offense is bound to cool off a little. Also, the bullpen has stranded more baserunners than is likely sustainable. Still, there are a bunch of smiles in the clubhouse. Players are stepping up in huge spots. The team clearly believes in itself right now, and that puts them in a much better position to continue to open eyes.

If I Were In Charge (August Edition)

The trade deadline has come and gone for the Mariners, with only a minor deal shipping away Arthur Rhodes happening. The complete truth around the Jarrod Washburn trade rumors may never be known, but if I were the M's I would have given him away for fairly cheap (especially if the Yankees could have been coaxed into taking most of his salary). Now, the dog days of August are here, but thanks to the Morrow transition there is still some intrigue around this ballclub. There is also the potential for some more deals. As is pounded into everyone's head by sports media outlets these days, deals can be made after July 31. In fact, since the "trade deadline" rules for baseball are so mysterious, here is exactly how they work:

1. July 31 is the last day in a season that players can be traded without passing through waivers. Without going into detail too much on the waiver process, basically a player can be placed on waivers at any time. When they are put on waivers, any team can put a "claim" on the player. If a player is claimed, then the current organization can let the player go and receive nothing in return. In this scenario, the new team must take on all of the player's remaining contract. However, if a player is claimed, the player can be pulled off of waivers and kept by the original team, or the player can be pulled from waivers and a trade can be worked out with the team that claimed the player. So, basically, July 31 is the last day during the season that trades can be made with complete freedom.
2. September 1 is known best as the day that rosters can be expanded, but it is perhaps more important for another reason. Any players added to a team's 40-man roster after September 1 are not eligible for a team's post-season roster. That is why August 31 is considered a trade deadline of sorts, especially for teams in contention. September trades are extremely rare (the last one I can remember is when the Pirates traded Brian Giles to the Padres), but they can happen. Waiver rules for trades still apply in September.
3. Once the off-season starts, the rules "reset" in a sense. In other words, players do not have to pass through waivers to be traded in the off-season, and can be moved without passing through waivers until after next July 31.

So, technically, there is no trade deadline in baseball at all. It is just convenient to think of a couple days as trade deadlines, because rules make July 31 and August 31 quasi-deadlines. Hopefully this clears up some confusion on what is a rather confusing set of rules, since the actual rules are rarely all stated together.

Anyway, the actual point of this post is not to just outline what the Mariners could do, but specifically what I would do if I were the Mariners interim GM right now. Any post-July 31 discussion must start with placing players on waivers. Here are the players I would put out there, and what I would hope/expect to happen:

1. Kenji Johjima - His contract is horrible, and even though Jeff Clement is yet to light up major league pitching, he is a safe bet to be a better backstop than Johjima for the next three years. At the very least, Clement will be a much cheaper ineffective catcher. Given Johjima's bad contract, I would expect him to pass through waivers, and I also doubt anyone would want him in a trade. I wouldn't cut Johjima either, so in the end this waiver move is one that would probably never be known publicly. But, if a team does claim Johjima, I would let them take him, solely because I want to get his contract off the books. Why not test the waters risk-free, to see if some team will take Kenji's contract?
2. Miguel Batista - I could copy what I just wrote for Johjima. Batista goes on the waiver wire for the same reasons: he is rather pricey, and rather ineffective. However, Miguel still has pretty good velocity, and he does have post-season experience, as well as considerable experience as a starter and reliever. Furthermore, his contract does not have as many years remaining as Kenji's, so it is not quite as bad. I still would not expect a team to claim Batista, but I think he has a much better chance of being claimed than Kenji. Once again, if a team claims him, I would let them have him. If Miguel passes through waivers, I would strongly consider releasing him.
3. Miguel Cairo - I would much rather use Cairo's roster spot on an additional September call-up than on him for the remainder of the season. I do think there is a very good chance someone would claim him, and I would let him go. If he passes through waivers, then I would release him. I would call up Tug Hulett to replace Cairo, and add Matt Tuiasosopo to the 40-man roster, and call him up on September 1.
4. Willie Bloomquist - Willie has stunningly little power, and he thinks he might be able to grab a starting job somewhere next year through free agency. Even though he is a local product, I think the chances of him leaving in the off-season are pretty good, and I would not be heart-broken since he brings absolutely no power to the table. However, a guy with his versatility, his speed, a .280 batting average, and .380 on-base may be appealing to a contender looking to bolster their bench for cheap. If Bloomquist were claimed, I would work out a trade with whomever claimed him, keeping in mind that there may be a compensatory draft pick coming if he is lost in free agency, given how much he has played this year.
5. Jarrod Washburn - Washburn is probably the most interesting player waiver-wise the Mariners have. He was close to getting dealt at the deadline, so there is obviously some interest in him. If the Yankees were willing to take his whole salary at the deadline and it was the prospect package that held up the deal, they certainly would claim him on waivers. My suspicion is that some team would claim Jarrod, and if he is claimed, I would work out a trade. Of all the players I have on this list, I think a Washburn move is the most realistic.

Hypothetically, let's suppose that Cairo, Bloomquist, and Washburn are claimed, and that Cairo is allowed to go, a trade is worked out with the team that claims Washburn, and Bloomquist is pulled back from waivers and kept. This means that Kenji and Miguel passed through waivers. Given this hypothetical, this would be my plan through August:

1. I already said that Tug Hulett would replace Miguel Cairo on the roster, so that was basically given in this scenario.
2. A Bloomquist/Hulett platoon at shortstop could work surprisingly well, and I would recommend that Riggleman try it. In AAA, Hulett has destroyed righties but struggled against lefties (though in limited opportunities), while Willie has been noticably better against lefties this year. As much as I like Betancourt, he really needs to learn to take a few pitches, and I think a legitimate benching may be the best way to get across the message at this point.
3. As a side note, especially with Bloomquist in a platoon at shortstop, I would put Jeremy Reed in left field, Ichiro back in center, and Balentien in right. Raul Ibanez stays in the lineup as the DH. This gets the two M's outfielders with best range in left and center (where Safeco field is most spacious), and the two M's outfielders with the strongest arms in center and right (where the longest outfield throws come from). That outfield alignment may do more for to improve the pitching than anything else.
4. Getting rid of Washburn is key, because I want to take a look at Brandon Morrow, Ryan Rowland-Smith, and Ryan Feierabend as starters. I would call up Rowland-Smith to take Washburn's place, because I think he is the closest to ready (unless Erik Bedard is ready to come off the DL). Miguel Batista and R.A. Dickey are the next two out of the rotation once Feierabend and Morrow are ready, and to make room for both of them I would send down Jared Wells and and release Miguel Batista (the salary hit is easier to take with Washburn's contract off the books). If Erik Bedard gets healthy, I would strongly consider a six-man rotation the rest of the way, just to see RRS, Morrow, and Feierabend all get regular starts.

This is a very realistic hypothetical scenario, and could be executed by an interim GM. These are not moves that greatly alter the talent pool for future years, but do allow for better evaluation of prospects and a little more payroll flexibility. However, this is a team that held on to Jose Vidro until August, so I am not holding my breath.

Opening Day 2008 Observations

The last three weeks or so have kept me quite busy, and as a result Opening Day snuck up on me more than usual this year. In fact, other commitments kept me from seeing the first four innings of the game, but by the time I was able to sit down and watch I was psyched out of my mind. Opening Day is a glorious day, and it quickly went from great to greater as the Mariners pulled out a 5-2 win over the Rangers. It was a beautiful game to start the season with, and many interesting things happened. Here are the things I took particular note of throughout the game:

• Erik Bedard was not dominant, but he pitched better than in any of his spring starts. I would have liked more than five innings and less than four walks out of him, but all things considered, he kept the M's in the game and put in a solid effort. I will take it.
• We got a glimpse of the McLaren way of doing things when Jose hit the weak dribbler out towards second base that turned into a hit because Ian Kinsler was covering second base on the hit and run. Generally I am not that big of a fan of putting the game in motion, but with this team it might be a good idea. Most of the guys on this team are not that patient, but they are good at making contact. Putting the game in motion would not really limit their plate discipline because there is not much discipline to start with, and it may make their ability to hit for contact a bigger weapon.
• Between the aforementioned hit-and-run dribbler and a clutch two out double, batting Jose Lopez second looked like a smart move for at least one day. I question batting Jose second, but his skill set should translate pretty well in the two hole, especially with the way McLaren wants the Mariners to play baseball this year. Even when struggling, Lopez has consistently been able to make contact, and somehow driven in more runs than he really should have looking at the rest of his numbers. It is fair to argue that both the dribbler and the double were lucky hits thanks to the defensive alignment, but I think that double would have gotten through even with the infield back, and the dribbler was mostly a product of Lopez doing his job and hitting the pitch to the right side.
• The Mariners lineup drew seven walks, though frankly it was against a Texas pitching staff that is not expected to be real good. Still, it was seven walks, and at least this lineup might have enough patience to let erratic pitchers hang themselves. There have been times over the past couple years where I was not convinced this team would even allow that because they have been so aggressive.
• There is no doubt the M's got some huge breaks from critical mistakes by the Rangers, and the mistakes were what allowed the M's to break through. Obviously, the Mariners cannot win every game by waiting for the other team to screw up, but good teams take advantage of mistakes and that is precisely what the Mariners did.
• I was impressed with what I saw out of the bullpen. Sean Green came in and looked as nasty as he did at the end of last year. Mark Lowe only faced one batter, but his velocity was up and his command looked decent despite all the excitement he must have been feeling. Eric O'Flaherty also looked really impressive, with a breaking ball that if anything is better than the one he had last year. He looks poised and ready to handle the role Sherrill filled last year. Though O'Flaherty did give up a run thanks to a grounder that found a hole, that made things perfect, because it allowed J.J. to come in and pick up the save on Opening Day.

Between seeing Bedard on the mound in the home white on Opening Day, and O'Flaherty coming in where Sherrill used to, the trade finally hit home for me. Something about Opening Day finally made it a reality for me that this team is about winning now, and it got me that much more excited. I have my concerns with this team and the trade, but it is great to be watching a team with a win now mentality, and if every game goes something like Opening Day did, this is going to be a great season.

Mariners Rotation Set

John McLaren continues to waste absolutely no time setting the Opening Day roster. Today, nearly a week before the first pitch in a spring game is thrown, he announced the order of the starting rotation. Up first will be Erik Bedard (96/94), followed by Felix Hernandez (83/91), Carlos Silva (75/74), Jarrod Washburn (74/72), and then Miguel Batista (76/72). It is perhaps a little surprising that Batista, the M's leader in wins last year, is penciled in as the fifth starter, but it was going to be hard lining up these guys in a surprising order. The most surprising thing is that McLaren named the entire rotation order so early.

Frankly, starting rotation orders are a little overblown. The most important thing is to make sure that the best pitchers on the staff get the most starts. Clearly, the M's two best are Bedard and King Felix, and they are in the top two spots. The last three could really go in any order. However, with that said, McLaren made sure Washburn was sandwiched between two right-handers, which may help him, and he finally decided Batista would be fifth because he is so versatile. At times, the fifth starter is skipped, and Batista has significant experience out of the bullpen. I also think versatility in a pitcher is overblown, but there is such a small difference in talent between the bottom three pitchers that I am fine with splitting hairs and looking at things like bullpen experience.

Ultimately, the most important thing a manager can do for their pitching staff is clearly define their roles, and McLaren seems to understand this. He understands that spring training is largely about preparing for the season, not figuring out who is on the roster. I cannot remember any team announcing their rotation order this early ever before, so I have to credit McLaren with thinking outside of the box a little. This is a veteran starting staff, and once the team acquired Bedard it was obvious who the starting five would be, so I see nothing but positives from this early announcement. As curious as some of McLaren's managerial decisions were last year, I like the start he is off to in Spring Training.

Bedard Trade Finally Official

It may have taken the whole off-season, but SP Erik Bedard (96/94) is finally a Seattle Mariner officially. In the end it took five players to get him, OF Adam Jones (73/86), RP George Sherrill (86/83), SP Chris Tillman (46/76), SP Tony Butler (40/70), and RP Kameron Mickolio (65/80). Jones and Sherrill were both safe bets to be on the Mariners opening day roster, with Mickolio having a faint chance, and Tillman and Butler still far away.

A five-for-one swap definitely eliminates a bunch of the organizational depth, but it should be noted who was not in the deal as much as who was. To start with, though Jones was the Mariners' best young positional player, they still have OF Wladimir Balentien (70/81), C Jeff Clement (70/82), and SS Carlos Triunfel (43/79). Rumors were that the Orioles asked for Triunfel, so the Mariners have to get some credit for keeping him out of the deal. Also, though they gave up four pitchers, they did hold on to their best young one (outside of Felix of course), Brandon Morrow (75/81). In addition, it should be noted that Tillman, Butler, and Mickolio were all members of the 2006 draft class, and in my opinion the pitchers the M's drafted in 2007 look at least as good as the ones they selected in 2006, if not better. P Nick Hill (53/77), P Jake Wild (49/74), and P Robbie Dominguez (45/75), all members of the 2007 draft class, had strong showings in rookie leagues last year, and P Phillipe Aumont, the M's top pick from 2007, is yet to make his professional debut. Furthermore, though not from the draft, 19-year-old P Juan Ramirez (48/81) just made his professional debut in the organization this past summer. Ultimately, this trade certainly put a dent in the farm system, but it far from crippled the system. Former GM Pat Gillick left a very weak farm system for Bavasi, but to Bavasi's credit he has brought in guys like scouting director Bob Fontaine and built up the system to a point it has not been at since the mid '90s. Ultimately, there is little doubt in my mind that the system will be able to absorb the hit it just took in this trade.

However, are the Mariners really a better team with Erik Bedard? I am not so sure. He certainly makes the rotation better, even though he is booting out Morrow, who I think would have been a pretty good starter this year. Sherrill was arguably the best left-handed specialist in all of baseball last year, but the bullpen can handle the loss thanks to young southpaws Eric O'Flaherty (78/83) and Ryan Rowland-Smith (73/79). Actually, it would not shock me if O'Flaherty proves to be just as good as Sheririll next year.

Unfortunately, there is still the hole left by the departure of Jones that must be considered. The Mariners signed OF/1B Brad Wilkerson (69/68) to take his place, and in some ways the outcome of this trade falls on him. Personally, I think Adam Jones was going to be quite a bit better than the M's expected (I think he will approach Guillen's 2007 offensive production with vastly better defense), and I also think Wilkerson will not be as good as the M's expect. Wilkerson is a noticeable downgrade, and I do not think any other team in baseball would hand him an opening day job right now as the Mariners appear to be doing. I would at the absolute least make right field an open competition between Wilkerson and Balentien, and perhaps the M's will do this as well.

In the end, two factors will determine how good the Erik Bedard trade is. First, how much better Bedard is than Morrow. Second, how much worse Wilkerson (or potentially Balentien) is than Jones. I discussed how good I think Bedard is in a previous post, and under my rating system I think Bedard will be 6 to 8 points better than Morrow. On the flip side, I think Wilkerson will be about 8 to 12 points worse than Jones in 2008 (though I think Balentien would prove to be 5 to 10 points worse). All in all, this deal is about making the M's better now, and I am not convinced it does. If Bedard stays as good as he was this past year, there is no doubt that this is a fantastic deal for the M's. However, nothing about Bedard's career path predicted such a high level of excellence, though he looked like he would become a very good pitcher.

The unknown is so large in this trade because there are so many young players involved, and because the supposedly established ace to this point has had one incredible year, and it is unknown yet if it was a spike or the start of an epic run like Johan Santana (89/88) has enjoyed. I am definitely looking forward to seeing Felix Hernandez (83/90) and Bedard in the same rotation, and I am going to love this trade if Bedard goes out and tears up the AL just like he did last year. It could happen, but I do not think it is the most likely outcome. Likely, this is a lateral move for the current team talent-wise, though it also added payroll and hurt the farm system. This trade could go down as a great one, but it could also turn out to be a terrible one, and for me the risk is not worth the reward in this case. I credit Bavasi for not shying away from a bold move and aggressively trying to make the team better, but this is not a trade I would have done.

Bedard for Jones Talks Red Hot

Last week, reports broke out of Venezuela that OF Adam Jones (73/85) had been pulled out of the lineup because a trade for SP Erik Bedard (96/94) was close. The rumor subsided when Jones returned to the lineup. Tonight, word broke again that Jones had been pulled from the lineup. However, this time is much, much different. According to reports, Jones received a call from Bavasi Saturday night telling him that he was the centerpiece of a deal for Bedard, and that he needed to go to Baltimore for a physical. Additionally, the Mariners have confirmed that Jones is finished in Venezuela, but would say no more. Still, considering Jones was hitting third in the lineup for a team in the midst of the Venezuelan championship series, it seems obvious that only something as major as a trade would make the Mariners suddenly rip him out of the lineup for good.

Of course, both sides said a final agreement has not been reached as of tonight, though Baltimore GM Andy MacPhail according to one report also said Jones was not coming to Baltimore for a physical. Furthermore, it is rather certain the deal will include as many as three more players going from the Mariners to the Orioles, and speculation is rampant on who those others could be. Interestingly, one player commonly brought up in the trade, RP George Sherrill (86/83), says he has not been contacted by anyone to this point.

Right now, I am not sure if the deal is actually done or not. Listening to Bavasi last week, it was clear he had laid out his final offer to the Orioles, and that he was also fairly confident the Orioles would agree to it. I think their GM clearly has at this point, but owner Peter Angelos must sign off on it. With most owners, this step can be dismissed, but not with Angelos. He is notorious for striking down deals, and considering a prospect is at the center of what they will receive, it is no given that he will give a final thumbs up. Still, he did approve the Tejada trade earlier this offseason, so between that and the Orioles apparent interest in acquiring a black star, the odds seem to be that he will approve this deal. That is, if he has not already.

The second key to this deal, from a baseball standpoint, is how much more beyond Jones the M's have to give up. My gut tells me SP Chris Tillman (46/78) will also be in the deal, and that C Jeff Clement (70/78) will not be. Tillman makes sense because I do not see the M's including Jones and SP Brandon Morrow (75/81), so Tillman is in effect a substitute for Morrow. As for Clement, I think he has more value to the Mariners than the Orioles since Baltimore just drafted a power-hitting catcher with their first pick this year, Matt Wieters. However, any additional pieces in the trade I have no idea about, though the report about Sherrill makes me believe he will not be a part of it (though I am not sold that he is not in it). I will write more about the trade once there are more details.

Bedard Rumors Continue to Swirl

Rumors concerning the Mariners acquiring SP Erik Bedard (96/94) from the Orioles refuse to die. The latest I have seen is that the M's are willing to part ways with OF Adam Jones (73/85) and RP George Sherrill (86/83), but the Orioles want in addition to those two either SP Brandon Morrow (75/81) or SS Carlos Triunfel (43/85). Currently, it appears the Mariners would prefer to include Triunfel between the two.

Jones, Sherrill, and Triunfel is an awfully high price to pay for any player. Erik Bedard was incredible last year (the only pitcher better than him last year according to my formula was Jake Peavy), but what he is actually worth needs to be examined further. Looking at his numbers, he exploded last year, and I doubt he will ever have a better year despite the fact he is only 28 years old. In fact, I really do not think he will reach the 94 rating my rating system projects for him next year. That is not to say Bedard will not be a great pitcher in the future, but to expect him to duplicate his 2007 output for the next several seasons is intrepid, to put it nicely. Taking Bedard's last three seasons and plugging them into my rating formula (with a slight injury adjustment), his rating drops to 86, with an expected decay to 85. That means Bedard is still a great pitcher, but the difference between a 96 rating and an 86 is significant.

After taking a closer look at Bedard, I think offering Jones and Sherrill for him is a fair deal. Baltimore needs a center fielder, and Jones fits that need perfectly, especially because he could become the black superstar that connects with the Baltimore community, which the Orioles covet badly. Though the Orioles would not receive a starter to replace Bedard in the trade, they added depth in the off-season by acquiring SP Troy Patton (61/78) and Matt Albers (59/63) in the Tejada trade, both of whom the team considers rotation candidates (I'm not as sold on them, but all that matters is if Baltimore believes in them). If they really wanted a starter, I would be willing to offer either Carlos Silva (75/74), Miguel Batista (76/72), or Jarrod Washburn (74/72), and get any one of those contracts off the books while making room in the rotation for Morrow. I doubt the Orioles would be interested in one of those three though.

As for the Mariners, Bedard would team with Felix Hernandez (83/90) and the mediocre, but effective, trio of Batista, Silva , and Washburn to turn the starting rotation into a decent, if not borderline formidable, group. Furthermore, though Sherrill would be missed in the bullpen, the M's have still have two very good bullpen lefties in Eric O'Flaherty (78/83) and Ryan Rowland-Smith (73/77), and Morrow would be pitching in the later innings as well. Adam Jones would also be missed, but Wladimir Balentien (70/80) is not a bad option, and there have been rumors the Mariners would sign Luis Gonzalez (79/74) if they were to trade Jones. So, it is not as if there would be a giant void in the outfield if Jones were to be traded, making it reasonable to say the upgrade Bedard brings to the starting rotation more than counteracts the loss of Jones in the outfield.

Still, it looks like the Orioles are not interested in only acquiring Jones and Sherrill for Bedard, and I would not be willing to offer much more for that. I would be willing to include INF Mike Morse (69/75) because there is no longer room for him on the 25-man roster thanks to INF Miguel Cairo (70/68), and Baltimore would be smart to take a look at Morse because he could fill their hole at shortstop, but I doubt that would be enough either. Bedard would be a great addition to the Mariners, but Baltimore's asking price is just a little too steep.

2007 Winter Meetings Predictions

The Winter Meetings are almost here, and with them will come some notable trades and free agent signings. This year could be especially good because there are some very big names being dangled by ballclubs. Here is my best attempt to provide some bold, yet realistic, predictions:

• The first big story is going to be Johan Santana, and if the rumors are true, a final decision on whether to trade him or not will come in the next 24 hours. It is being reported that the Yankees have submitted their final offer, and have told the Twins they must accept it by tomorrow or it will be rescinded. The Twins have been smart about these trade discussions, and have the Red Sox and Yankees in a bidding war that has reportedly brought Phil Hughes and Jacoby Ellsbury, both thought to be untouchable at first, into the discussion. However, it is clear at this point that both teams have submitted their best offers, and now it is up to the Twins to decide if either offer is worth pulling the trigger on. Of course, even if Minnesota agrees to one of the deals, Johan will likely only waive his no-trade clause if he gets a contract extension that makes him the highest paid pitcher in baseball history. I'm sure there are split opinions within the Twins organization on whether to pull the trigger or not, and between that and the difficulties of hammering out an astronomical contract in short amount of time, I think somehow or another Johan Santana will still be a Twin when the meetings are over.
• Miguel Cabrera will not be a Marlin by the end of the meetings. Not much has come out about him in the past week, but I believe a deal for him is far from dead. It sounded like the Angels had come all the way up to the Marlins' full initial asking price for Cabrera, and all of sudden the Marlins decided to ask for a bunch more to make the deal happen. This ticked off the Angels, but the two sides will likely strike up conversation again at the winter meetings. Personally, I think the Marlins are willing to take the Angels offer, but really like what the Dodgers could potentially offer. My guess is that Florida is trying to create a bidding war between the two of them to extract as much as they can out of one of the teams for Miguel Cabrera. It's good, hard negotiating, which is what the team should use with such a valuable player as Cabrera. The only question is if they were so hard that they turned the Angels off for good. It seems like the Angels are hell-bent on winning though, sparing no expense and guarding no prospect, so I think it would nearly be impossible for the Marlins to disgust the Angels so badly that they would lose all interest in Miguel Cabrera . Unless the Dodgers decide in the next few days that Clayton Kershaw and Matt Kemp can go to the Marlins, I expect to see the Marlins trade Miguel Cabrera to the Angels for Howie Kendrick, Jeff Mathis, Joe Saunders, and Reggie Willits.
• The Mariners will walk away from the winter meetings with a new starting pitcher. The rumor tonight is that they have given Hiroki Kuroda a 4-year, $44 million offer, and I believe he will accept that. In addition, Kuroda will be the biggest free agent signing that any team makes during the winter meetings (not a real bold prediction looking at the free agents available). Even if the M's don't land Kuroda, they will trade for someone. They are not leaving these winter meetings without a new starting pitcher.
• No one will walk away with either Joe Blanton or Dan Haren. Anyone who has read Moneyball and remembers Billy Beane's trading rules knows that he will never do a deal because he needs to. The Mets are the logical fit, but they do not have the pieces to get a trade done now that they got rid of Milledge, because I doubt the A's care about Carlos Gomez's speed all the much. The only reason Beane is entertaining offers for either pitcher is because the free agent pitching market is so weak, and so many teams seem desperate for pitching. Beane understands the principle of supply and demand, and that he has the kind of high ground that allows him to leave the bargaining table unless he gets everything he wants. The bottom line is that a team will have to blow away the A's to acquire either Blanton or Haren, which no team is willing to do.
• The Rangers will be rumored to be after Orioles starter Erik Bedard, but not come close to acquiring him. Admittedly, I am pulling this one completely out of thin air, but it makes too much sense and I am trying to make bold predictions. Texas desperately needs starting pitching, wants to make a splash this off-season, and has plenty of money to burn since Torii Hunter did not sign with them. There are already murmurs that Baltimore will listen to offers for Bedard, and even if Texas never actually inquires, at the very least some reporter will make this Bedard-Texas connection and spin it into an inside scoop.

There are five bold predictions for the winter meetings. Whether any of them are correct will be known by Wednesday.

M's Aggressively Pursuing Kuroda

Listen to Bill Bavasi talk for any longer than 15 seconds, and he will mention that the Mariners need starting pitching at least once, if not two or three times, in that span. After watching Jeff Weaver (63) and Horacio Ramirez (55) trot to the mound for a whole season, it would be hard to find anyone who would disagree with him. Both Ryan Rowland-Smith (71) and Brandon Morrow (75) are being sent to winter ball to stretch out and get some starting experience, and in addition to that duo the M's have Cha Seung Baek (73) and Ryan Feierabend (64) as in-house candidates. The group of potential replacements is not overwhelming, but it is not as if Weaver and Ho-Ram were either.

Apparently, the in-house options do not satisfy Bavasi, and he has set his eyes on the best Japanese pitcher available this year, Hiroki Kuroda (72). According to scouting reports, Kuroda primarily features a fastball that goes into the mid-90s and a sharp, biting slider that some believe is even better than Dice-K's. On top of that, Kuroda has a long track record of success in Japan, and overall the general consensus is that he translates into a number three starter in the major leagues. Bavasi must believe that Kuroda is easily the best free agent starter available, because he traveled to Japan with John McLaren this week to meet face to face and negotiate with him. Though several teams have expressed interest in Kuroda, the Mariners should have an edge because he says he wants to play on the west coast, and in particular likes the idea of having Kenji Johjima catching him. At this point there seems to be a high level of mutual interest between the two, and I would expect to see Kuroda officially sign with the Mariners in the next week or two. It is generally believed he will receive a contract worth at least $10 million annually for a minimum of four years.

I think the Mariners are on the verge of overpaying for another mediocre starter. I like Kuroda, but he is not quite as good as most believe. He is at the top of this year's free agent pitching crop, but all that says is that he is as good as Carlos Silva (75) and Kyle Lohse (73). Looking at Kuroda's Japanese numbers, he was nowhere near as good as Daisuke Matsuzaka (85), or even as good as some less successful Japanese players, namely Kei Igawa (64), Kazuhisa Ishii, and Hideki Irabu. I am not opposed to signing Kuroda, because he would be a solid addition to the Mariners rotation. However, I am opposed for signing him to a 4 year, $40 million deal. He is worth about $5 million annually in my estimation, and given that he is 32 years old, I would not offer him much beyond 3 years, $15 million. Simply put, I doubt the Mariners crossed the Pacific Ocean for a guy they think is worth 3 years, $15 million.

Clearly, Bavasi is scared to have two unproven starters in the 2008 rotation. However, there is reason to believe that the M's already have guys that can get the job done, or at least get the job done as well as anyone available on the free agent market. Since the Mariners have shown little interest in Silva or Lohse, I get the feeling that they understand that neither would improve the team. So, they must see Hiroki Kuroda as something much better, like a number three starter at worst with the chance to be a number two. Bavasi has overestimated pitchers in the past (look no further than Washburn and Batista), and it looks like he is well on his way to doing that again.