If I Were In Charge (August Edition)

The trade deadline has come and gone for the Mariners, with only a minor deal shipping away Arthur Rhodes happening. The complete truth around the Jarrod Washburn trade rumors may never be known, but if I were the M's I would have given him away for fairly cheap (especially if the Yankees could have been coaxed into taking most of his salary). Now, the dog days of August are here, but thanks to the Morrow transition there is still some intrigue around this ballclub. There is also the potential for some more deals. As is pounded into everyone's head by sports media outlets these days, deals can be made after July 31. In fact, since the "trade deadline" rules for baseball are so mysterious, here is exactly how they work:

1. July 31 is the last day in a season that players can be traded without passing through waivers. Without going into detail too much on the waiver process, basically a player can be placed on waivers at any time. When they are put on waivers, any team can put a "claim" on the player. If a player is claimed, then the current organization can let the player go and receive nothing in return. In this scenario, the new team must take on all of the player's remaining contract. However, if a player is claimed, the player can be pulled off of waivers and kept by the original team, or the player can be pulled from waivers and a trade can be worked out with the team that claimed the player. So, basically, July 31 is the last day during the season that trades can be made with complete freedom.
2. September 1 is known best as the day that rosters can be expanded, but it is perhaps more important for another reason. Any players added to a team's 40-man roster after September 1 are not eligible for a team's post-season roster. That is why August 31 is considered a trade deadline of sorts, especially for teams in contention. September trades are extremely rare (the last one I can remember is when the Pirates traded Brian Giles to the Padres), but they can happen. Waiver rules for trades still apply in September.
3. Once the off-season starts, the rules "reset" in a sense. In other words, players do not have to pass through waivers to be traded in the off-season, and can be moved without passing through waivers until after next July 31.

So, technically, there is no trade deadline in baseball at all. It is just convenient to think of a couple days as trade deadlines, because rules make July 31 and August 31 quasi-deadlines. Hopefully this clears up some confusion on what is a rather confusing set of rules, since the actual rules are rarely all stated together.

Anyway, the actual point of this post is not to just outline what the Mariners could do, but specifically what I would do if I were the Mariners interim GM right now. Any post-July 31 discussion must start with placing players on waivers. Here are the players I would put out there, and what I would hope/expect to happen:

1. Kenji Johjima - His contract is horrible, and even though Jeff Clement is yet to light up major league pitching, he is a safe bet to be a better backstop than Johjima for the next three years. At the very least, Clement will be a much cheaper ineffective catcher. Given Johjima's bad contract, I would expect him to pass through waivers, and I also doubt anyone would want him in a trade. I wouldn't cut Johjima either, so in the end this waiver move is one that would probably never be known publicly. But, if a team does claim Johjima, I would let them take him, solely because I want to get his contract off the books. Why not test the waters risk-free, to see if some team will take Kenji's contract?
2. Miguel Batista - I could copy what I just wrote for Johjima. Batista goes on the waiver wire for the same reasons: he is rather pricey, and rather ineffective. However, Miguel still has pretty good velocity, and he does have post-season experience, as well as considerable experience as a starter and reliever. Furthermore, his contract does not have as many years remaining as Kenji's, so it is not quite as bad. I still would not expect a team to claim Batista, but I think he has a much better chance of being claimed than Kenji. Once again, if a team claims him, I would let them have him. If Miguel passes through waivers, I would strongly consider releasing him.
3. Miguel Cairo - I would much rather use Cairo's roster spot on an additional September call-up than on him for the remainder of the season. I do think there is a very good chance someone would claim him, and I would let him go. If he passes through waivers, then I would release him. I would call up Tug Hulett to replace Cairo, and add Matt Tuiasosopo to the 40-man roster, and call him up on September 1.
4. Willie Bloomquist - Willie has stunningly little power, and he thinks he might be able to grab a starting job somewhere next year through free agency. Even though he is a local product, I think the chances of him leaving in the off-season are pretty good, and I would not be heart-broken since he brings absolutely no power to the table. However, a guy with his versatility, his speed, a .280 batting average, and .380 on-base may be appealing to a contender looking to bolster their bench for cheap. If Bloomquist were claimed, I would work out a trade with whomever claimed him, keeping in mind that there may be a compensatory draft pick coming if he is lost in free agency, given how much he has played this year.
5. Jarrod Washburn - Washburn is probably the most interesting player waiver-wise the Mariners have. He was close to getting dealt at the deadline, so there is obviously some interest in him. If the Yankees were willing to take his whole salary at the deadline and it was the prospect package that held up the deal, they certainly would claim him on waivers. My suspicion is that some team would claim Jarrod, and if he is claimed, I would work out a trade. Of all the players I have on this list, I think a Washburn move is the most realistic.

Hypothetically, let's suppose that Cairo, Bloomquist, and Washburn are claimed, and that Cairo is allowed to go, a trade is worked out with the team that claims Washburn, and Bloomquist is pulled back from waivers and kept. This means that Kenji and Miguel passed through waivers. Given this hypothetical, this would be my plan through August:

1. I already said that Tug Hulett would replace Miguel Cairo on the roster, so that was basically given in this scenario.
2. A Bloomquist/Hulett platoon at shortstop could work surprisingly well, and I would recommend that Riggleman try it. In AAA, Hulett has destroyed righties but struggled against lefties (though in limited opportunities), while Willie has been noticably better against lefties this year. As much as I like Betancourt, he really needs to learn to take a few pitches, and I think a legitimate benching may be the best way to get across the message at this point.
3. As a side note, especially with Bloomquist in a platoon at shortstop, I would put Jeremy Reed in left field, Ichiro back in center, and Balentien in right. Raul Ibanez stays in the lineup as the DH. This gets the two M's outfielders with best range in left and center (where Safeco field is most spacious), and the two M's outfielders with the strongest arms in center and right (where the longest outfield throws come from). That outfield alignment may do more for to improve the pitching than anything else.
4. Getting rid of Washburn is key, because I want to take a look at Brandon Morrow, Ryan Rowland-Smith, and Ryan Feierabend as starters. I would call up Rowland-Smith to take Washburn's place, because I think he is the closest to ready (unless Erik Bedard is ready to come off the DL). Miguel Batista and R.A. Dickey are the next two out of the rotation once Feierabend and Morrow are ready, and to make room for both of them I would send down Jared Wells and and release Miguel Batista (the salary hit is easier to take with Washburn's contract off the books). If Erik Bedard gets healthy, I would strongly consider a six-man rotation the rest of the way, just to see RRS, Morrow, and Feierabend all get regular starts.

This is a very realistic hypothetical scenario, and could be executed by an interim GM. These are not moves that greatly alter the talent pool for future years, but do allow for better evaluation of prospects and a little more payroll flexibility. However, this is a team that held on to Jose Vidro until August, so I am not holding my breath.

Opening Day Roster Set

During the broadcast of the M's/Cubs game today, the 2008 opening day roster for the Mariners was announced. Here they are:

STARTING LINEUP

• C - Kenji Johjima
• 1B - Richie Sexson
• 2B - Jose Lopez
• SS - Yuniesky Betancourt
• 3B - Adrian Beltre
• LF - Raul Ibanez
• CF - Ichiro
• RF - Brad Wilkerson

Analysis: There is not much to say here. The lineup was for all intents and purposes set before spring training began. There was little competition here, and no surprises either.

STARTING ROTATION

1. Erik Bedard
2. Felix Hernandez
3. Carlos Silva
4. Jarrod Washburn
5. Miguel Batista

Analysis: Much like the starting lineup, the rotation was set before spring training started. John McLaren even announced the order before spring training games began, so there was absolutely no competition all spring. To say there are no surprises here is an understatement.

BULLPEN

• Cha Seung Baek
• Ryan Rowland-Smith
• Sean Green
• Eric O'Flaherty
• Mark Lowe
• J.J. Putz

Analysis: This is the first place where there were a few surprises. McLaren was not sure whether he would go with a six or seven man bullpen the entire spring, and all along I thought the odds were the M's would go with seven, though any six-man scenario would include R.A. Dickey. In the end, McLaren surprised me twice, both with the bullpen and taking Baek over Dickey. Instead, the team "traded" C Jair Fernandez to the Twins for Dickey, allowing the team to keep him in AAA and not lose him. Listening to Bavasi on the telecast today, it was clear that Baek's lack of remaining minor league options was a major factor in the decision, and I am fine with that. Baek and Dickey are different pitchers, but one is not much better than the other. Preserving depth is certainly worth something, and because of that I am happy to see Baek in the bullpen.

The other interesting bullpen story is Mark Lowe. He has looked fairly sharp in spring training, and that coupled with Morrow's arm injury and overall lack of control opened up a spot for him. However, it is clear that the M's are planning on bringing Morrow back up once he is ready to go, so Lowe may have to hit the ground running to stay around.

Another player worth watching is Arthur Rhodes. He did not make the team, but he has looked good in the spring and he will continue to rehab from arm surgery. If he looks good in the minors, McLaren is going to have a hard time keeping him off the team. If either O'Flaherty or Rowland-Smith falter, he could be up soon.

BENCH

• Willie Bloomquist
• Miguel Cairo
• Mike Morse
• Charlton Jimerson
• Jamie Burke

Analysis: I am quite pleased with this bench. Keeping one less man in the bullpen allowed for one more bench player, which opened up the space needed for Mike Morse. However, after listening to the telecast today, it sounds like the last man on was actually Jimerson or Cairo. McLaren has been so impressed with Morse's spring that he now thinks he will platoon with Brad Wilkerson. Though looking at the numbers it would make more sense to have Morse platoon with Ibanez, I like that McLaren is rewarding such a great spring training peformance.

As for the rest of the bench, there is lots of versatility and speed. Both Bloomquist and Cairo can play virtually everywhere and grab a bag when needed, but Jimerson will likely be the primary pinch-runner. It is obvious that McLaren really wants to run this year, because he kept these three players and did not keep either Greg Norton or Jeremy Reed, both left-handed hitters but not as big of threats to steal. Personally, I probably would have kept Greg Norton and not Miguel Cairo (well, if I really was running the team I never would have signed Cairo to a major league contract), but I credit McLaren for a thinking a little outside of the box and starting the season with no left-handed hitters on the bench.

All in all, the final opening day roster excites me. The Mariners rewarded the good spring performances that Baek and Morse turned in, which I really like. They also went with less proven players, like Charlton Jimerson and Ryan Rowland-Smith, over more experienced guys, like Greg Norton and Arthur Rhodes. John McLaren has a clear vision of what he wants the 2008 Mariners to look like, and he built the roster by picking the 25 guys that fit his vision best. He did not just favor experience, or just talent. This team has a good mix of both, and also has a little depth in the minors too at all positions. This is the best roster the M's have put together under Bill Bavasi.

The Next Great Knuckler?

The Mariners pitching staff got a whole lot less intriguing in spring training once Erik Bedard was acquired, but not all intrigue was wiped away. Aside from guys like Arthur Rhodes, Chris Reitsma, and Mark Lowe working back from injuries, the M's have arguably one of the most intriguing pitchers in all of baseball right now - R.A. Dickey. Aside from a great name, Dickey throws a knuckleball, which remains the most intriguing pitch in baseball.

The knuckleball is a spectacle, and always will be simply by its nature. A pitcher's talent is essentially evaluated on their power and control. When it comes to power, that generally either means the pure velocity they have, or how sharp of a break they get on their breaking balls. Control of course is how well the pitcher locates their pitches. The knuckleball has no power and is impossible to control. In fact, it is arguably better with less power, and there is no way to determine how well or sharp it breaks either. As for control, not only is the knuckleball terribly difficult to locate, success with the pitch depends on an inability to locate it! At its best, the knuckleball dances where it pleases, which gives the pitcher a limited idea at best of where it is going, and guarantees there is no way the hitter knows what to expect. Deception is an age-old part of pitching, but the knuckleball provides it in such a counterintuitive way that it always will be a bit of an interloper among the rest of the pitches.

Since the knuckleball is so different, scouts have a hard time evaluating a knuckleball pitcher. On top of that, the pitch itself is difficult to develop into a "consistent" pitch (whatever that means for a knuckleball), so not many pitchers seriously try to learn it. As a result, there simply are not that many pitchers around that throw the knuckleball. However, the knuckleball refuses to die, and there always seem to be at least one pitcher in the majors that lives and dies by it. Ever since Steve Sparks retired, that man has been Tim Wakefield, but at some point he will likely retire. It is about time for his successor to emerge.

Enter R.A. Dickey. At 33 years old, Dickey would not be considered much of a prospect by most, but he should be treated as one to a certain extent. Dickey used a traditional repertoire of pitches up until about three years ago, and worked his way all the way to the major leagues. He was not all that great, but he had toyed with a knuckleball, and made the decision to focus on it. He has been in the minors since working on the pitch, and the pitch has obviously developed. It is easy to see in his AAA numbers:

• 2005: 10-6 record, 5.99 ERA, 1.57 WHIP, 5.99 K/9
• 2006: 9-8 record, 4.92 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 4.17 K/9
• 2007: 13-6 record, 3.72 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 6.32 K/9

Granted, Dickey is old by AAA standards, and his experience gives him a competitive advantage that would be virtually non-existent in the majors, but there is more at work in his improvement than getting older than his competition. Dickey says he is getting the knuckleball figured out, and that statistics back him up. The Mariners were intrigued enough this offseason to make him a Rule 5 draft pick.

So far Dickey has been quite impressive this spring, and could not have done any more to give himself a chance at making the M's roster to this point. I hope he makes it too. He deserves a chance with the way he has performed this spring, and there is good reason to believe he would be an effective long reliever at least. Dickey would also allow the M's to go with only a six man bullpen because the knuckleball stresses the arm less than traditional pitches, meaning Dickey can pitch more innings with less rest and remain effective. This would allow the M's to carry an extra bench player, which should allow them to keep Mike Morse around.

However, above all that, it is time for a successor to Tim Wakefield, and why can't it be R.A. Dickey? He had talent, and switching to the knuckleball was not a last-ditch effort to hang around (though he was likely to spend the rest of his career in AAA). The knuckler may have been Dickey's last chance at prolonged major league success, but it was still more of a willing switch instead of a choice out of desperation. Dickey may be older by traditional baseball terms, but knuckleballers have been known to pitch well into their 40s. In knuckleball terms, Dickey is more like 23 or 24 years old, and just hitting his stride. At worst, the M's have an inning-eating middle reliever that really is not that great, but does save the rest of the bullpen arms. However, I like Dickey's chances at being more.

Mariners Bullpen Far From Finalized

The one place the Mariners actually have some legitimate spring training competition is in the bullpen. As much as the Bedard trade impacted the M's starting rotation, its effects are prominent in the bullpen too, thanks to the departure of George Sherrill (86/84) and "return" of Brandon Morrow (75/81). Here is how the bullpen is shaping up as of now:

LOCKS TO MAKE THE OPENING DAY BULLPEN

• J.J. Putz (89/87) - He is one of the best closers in baseball, and there is no way anybody is taking away his job, no matter how he or others perform.
• Brandon Morrow (75/81) - Morrow went to Venezuela as a starter to prepare for a likely job in the rotation, but the acquisitions of Carlos Silva (75/74) and Erik Bedard (96/94) changed things. He will be back as the right-handed setup man, the same role he worked his way into last year.
• Sean Green (73/72) - Green was a bit of an unsung hero for the Mariners last year, but his breakout performance did not go unnoticed by McLaren and the front office. He will man primarily the seventh inning, as he did by the end of last year.

Depending on the number of position players the Mariners keep, that leaves either three or four spots in the bullpen yet to be determined. Here are the prime contenders for the remaining spots:

LEFT-HANDERS

• Eric O'Flaherty (78/83) - Though Sean Green was a pleasant surprise, the real unsung hero for me from last year's bullpen was O'Flaherty. He is a better left-hander than he gets credit for, even from the Mariners. For me, he would be a lock to make the bullpen, but that does not seem to be the case with the Mariners. He should take over Sherrill's role the last couple years, and even though he is not a lock, he is still the clear front-runner.
• Cesar Jimenez (60/72) - Jimenez missed a bunch of time last year due to injury, but showed some promise in Tacoma in his 16 appearances. He is healthy again, and the Mariners like him enough to give him a chance to compete with O'Flaherty for the lefty specialist job. Cesar has a very nice change-up, and it is the main reason the M's see him as a viable option this year. If I were in charge he would be ticketed for Tacoma, both because I think he still has a little room to grow before being a good bullpen option, and also because I think highly of O'Flaherty.
• Horacio Ramirez (55/55) - There is no spot for Ho-Ram in the rotation, but he's still making over $2 million a year, so it is hard to believe the M's will have no qualms sending him down to Tacoma to start the season. That is where he should be, but at this point he seems to be a leading candidate for long relief.
• Ryan Rowland-Smith (73/79) - I cannot tell what the Mariners are thinking with Rowland-Smith. Along with Morrow, Ryan was stretched over the winter to become a potential starter, though he was a long shot to make the rotation even before the Bedard trade. The M's seem quite enamored with Jimenez, and may opt to keep him and O'Flaherty, and send Rowland-Smith to Tacoma and let him develop as a starter. They may also decide to keep Ho-Ram around as a long reliever, which would also squeeze Ryan out of the picture. To me it is obvious that O'Flaherty and Rowland-Smith should be the two bullpen lefties though.

RIGHT-HANDERS

• Chris Reitsma (50/50) - Listening to McLaren talk about Reitsma, one of the bullpen slots may be his to lose. Chris has been a solid major league pitcher for a long time, but really fell off the table last year thanks to several arm injuries. He is healthy again, and according to the M's coaching staff he has looked impressive. If he returns to form, he would be a valuable pitcher to have. He is a non-roster invitee, so a spot on the 40-man roster would have to be cleared for him.
• Mark Lowe (68/87) - Lowe's rating in my system is based off of his 2006 numbers, because he did not play much in 2007 thanks to a very serious arm injury. Lowe throws hard and has good mound presence, but he still looks a little rusty to me. If the M's can afford to (and they can), it would be best to let him get back in the groove of professional baseball in AAA.
• R.A. Dickey (64/67) - The Rule 5 selection and knuckleball specialist does not have as good of a chance to make the roster now that Erik Bedard is in town, but he still has a chance. Thanks to the low strain a knuckleball puts on the body, he could pitch multiple innings on consecutive days, making him an intriguing option as a long reliever. His first couple spring outings were rather rocky, but his most recent was quite good.

OTHERS WITH AN OUTSIDE CHANCE

• Ryan Feierabend (57/72) - The M's are giving him a bit of a look as a left-handed reliever. He may be a solid option, but there are at least three better options for that role in O'Flaherty, Rowland-Smtih, and Jimenez. He should continue to develop as a starter in AAA.
• Jake Woods (51/59) - Also a lefty, but he simply is not as good as other ones in camp. He is off to a hot start this spring, and if he stays hot he may stick around and be considered a little more seriously.
• Cha Seung Baek (73/73) - Baek was going to get a look as a potential starting candidate until the Bedard trade, so now he is an option for long relief. However, I think there are too many pitchers in front of him the M's prefer for him to have a realistic chance.
• Sean White (65/65) - White was a Rule 5 selection last year, but did not play much thanks to an injury. Like Baek, I think there are too many guys the M's prefer in front of him. He was stretched out as a starter in the winter, and he may get a chance to continue to start in Tacoma.
• Jon Huber (53/62) - Huber turned heads when he posted a 1.08 ERA in 16 appearances with the M's in 2006, but really struggled in 2007. He'll likely have to bounce back in Tacoma before the Mariners strongly consider him again.

As of now, here is who I think the Mariners will carry in their bullpen:

• R.A. Dickey
• Horacio Ramirez
• Chris Reitsma
• Sean Green
• Eric O'Flaherty
• Brandon Morrow
• J.J. Putz

R.A. Dickey is the one I'm least confident on by far. I could see the M's going with Jimenez or Rowland-Smith instead, or deciding to go with only a six-man bullpen. Here is who I would keep in the bullpen:

• R.A. Dickey
• Ryan Rowland-Smith
• Sean Green
• Eric O'Flaherty
• Brandon Morrow
• J.J. Putz

Between more effective starters and Dickey, who can pitch multiple innings any given night, I think the bullpen would be just fine with only six members. Also, if the M's only carry a six-man bullpen, it will make it easier to keep INF Mike Morse (69/75), who is out of minor league options. As long as O'Flaherty takes over for Sherrill, I do not think there is much the Mariners can do to really irk me with their bullpen selections.

2007 Rule 5 Draft

Here's a pick-by-pick look at the 2007 Rule 5 Draft (position, name, rating, team drafted by):

1. P Tim Lahey (47), Devil Rays (subsequently traded to White Sox) - Lahey has good size at 6'5" and 250 pounds, and between that and Chicago's affinity for flame-throwers, my guess is that Lahey possesses a power arm. However, he hasn't shown an ability to strike a high number of batters out. He was a decent AA reliever last year, and the White Sox would be making a mistake if they hold on to him.
2. P Evan Meek (55), Pirates - Meek is from Bellevue and went to Bellevue CC, so I can't help but root for a local guy. He is a somewhat promising reliever, but he's also not quite ready for the majors. However, the Pirates roster isn't exactly a spoil of riches, so Meek has a good chance to stick in their bullpen.
3. P Randor Bierd (65), Orioles - I really like this pick. Baltimore's bullpen was atrocious last year, and Bierd was dominant in AA last year. He's good enough to contribute to many bullpens, but he'll especially be a welcome addition to this staff. His chances of staying and contributing are excellent.
4. P Jose Capellan (23), Giants - Capellan is really hard to project because he played in short-season advanced rookie ball last year, five levels below the major leagues. His numbers are fantastic, but it's hard to imagine he can make such a huge jump successfully.
5. P Carlos Guevara (62), Marlins (subsequently traded to Padres) - Guevara is one of the better picks of the Rule 5 draft, but the Padres pitching staff is already strong, so I wonder if he will make their roster. He was picked out of the Reds organization, and given how bad Cincinnati's bullpen is, I don't understand why they did not have him on their 40-man roster.
6. P Sergio Valenzuela (34), Reds - Maybe there is a reason the Reds' pitching staff is so bad. They don't protect a pitcher like Carlos Guevara, but do have the room on their roster to add a guy like Sergio Valenzuela. There's no way this guy will make their staff. He's horrible. His ERA was an even 7.00 last year, and he split time between high-A and AA.
7. 3B Matt Whitney (51), Nationals - Whitney showed great power last year, belting 32 homers and 30 doubles. Overall, his numbers are solid, but they were accumulated between high-A and AA. He's not major league material right now.
8. P Wesley Wright (53), Astros - Wright, a southpaw, is intriguing. He's difficult to hit, as evidenced by a low batting average against and high number of strikeouts. However, he also walks quite a few hitters, and he's a little prone to giving up home runs as well. Looking at his numbers, it looks like he has really good stuff, but little control. I'm sure the Astros see him as a specialty lefty though, so he has a chance to stick even if he should not.
9. P Fernando Hernandez (58), Athletics - Fernando fits the moneyball mold: low walks, low home runs allowed, and a high strikeout rate. He could be a decent option as a mop-up man right now, with the potential to be more in the future. I'm not sure he is good enough for the A's to keep him, but he should get a chance to make the team.
10. OF Brian Barton (59), Cardinals - I kind of like this pick. Barton has shown good plate discipline in the minors, and a little speed. I don't know how good his defense is, but if it is good he could be a nice defensive replacement/pinch runner off the bench, with the chance to develop into a solid fourth outfielder.
11. P Randy Wells (62), Blue Jays - Wells had a 4.52 ERA in AAA last year, but he is better than that number suggests. He struck out a bunch of batters, and has a chance to stick on Toronto's staff as a mop-up man out of the bullpen.
12. P R.A. Dickey (64), Mariners - Dickey is 33 years old, which is significantly older than most Rule 5 draft picks, but he still has plenty of intrigue. Dickey has been working on mastering a knuckleball that past couple years, and he seemed to really start to get command of it the second half of last year. He'll get a look as a number five starter, and considering his competition is Ho-Ram right now, he's liable to get it. He'd also be a nice long reliever.
13. P Steven Register (53), Mets - Register saved an impressive 37 games in AA last year, but that statistic is misleading. He was good, but not great, and I do not think he is good enough to earn a spot on the Mets.
14. P Michael Gardner (57), Padres - Gardner had a nice year in AA, most notably allowing only 1 home run in 81 1/3 innings. I would keep Guevara over Gardner though, and I'm not sure there is room for either, much less both, on the Padres staff.
15. P Travis Blackley (64), Phillies - Pat Gillick continues to collect every prospect he loved when he was with the Mariners. Honestly, Blackley is one of the best players picked in this year's Rule 5 draft, and between the Phillies' relatively weak pitching staff and Gillick's adoration of him, he has a good chance to stay with the team.
16. OF Garret Guzman (57), Nationals - Guzman was drafted out of the Twins organization, and given their offensive struggles, it would not be the first place I would look for offensive talent in the Rule 5 draft. Guzman is not bad, but he's not real good either.
17. 2B Callix Crabbe (69), Padres - The Padres really did their homework for this year's Rule 5 draft, as evidenced by three selections, and their ability to pick up a hidden gem like Crabbe. At first glance, his numbers aren't impressive, but he doesn't really have a weakness either. He has always shown good plate discipline, but added more power this past season. Moreover, second base is a glaring hole for the Padres right now, and they do not want to sign a free agent that will block Matt Antonelli's path. Crabbe is no savior, but the only pick that may have been better than this one in the whole draft is Randor Bierd.
18. P Lincoln Holdzkom (52), Phillies - Holdzkom split time between AA and AAA, and appears to have pretty good stuff, but a lack of control. He's not major league material at this point.

There are a number of players from this Rule 5 draft that have the potential to be productive major league players. Most of them aren't quite ready for the majors, but Bierd, Dickey, Blackley, and Crabbe all appear to be, at least in some capacity. Whether this year's bunch has a guy as good as Johan Santana, Dan Uggla, or Shane Victorino, time will tell.