If I Were In Charge (August Edition)

The trade deadline has come and gone for the Mariners, with only a minor deal shipping away Arthur Rhodes happening. The complete truth around the Jarrod Washburn trade rumors may never be known, but if I were the M's I would have given him away for fairly cheap (especially if the Yankees could have been coaxed into taking most of his salary). Now, the dog days of August are here, but thanks to the Morrow transition there is still some intrigue around this ballclub. There is also the potential for some more deals. As is pounded into everyone's head by sports media outlets these days, deals can be made after July 31. In fact, since the "trade deadline" rules for baseball are so mysterious, here is exactly how they work:

1. July 31 is the last day in a season that players can be traded without passing through waivers. Without going into detail too much on the waiver process, basically a player can be placed on waivers at any time. When they are put on waivers, any team can put a "claim" on the player. If a player is claimed, then the current organization can let the player go and receive nothing in return. In this scenario, the new team must take on all of the player's remaining contract. However, if a player is claimed, the player can be pulled off of waivers and kept by the original team, or the player can be pulled from waivers and a trade can be worked out with the team that claimed the player. So, basically, July 31 is the last day during the season that trades can be made with complete freedom.
2. September 1 is known best as the day that rosters can be expanded, but it is perhaps more important for another reason. Any players added to a team's 40-man roster after September 1 are not eligible for a team's post-season roster. That is why August 31 is considered a trade deadline of sorts, especially for teams in contention. September trades are extremely rare (the last one I can remember is when the Pirates traded Brian Giles to the Padres), but they can happen. Waiver rules for trades still apply in September.
3. Once the off-season starts, the rules "reset" in a sense. In other words, players do not have to pass through waivers to be traded in the off-season, and can be moved without passing through waivers until after next July 31.

So, technically, there is no trade deadline in baseball at all. It is just convenient to think of a couple days as trade deadlines, because rules make July 31 and August 31 quasi-deadlines. Hopefully this clears up some confusion on what is a rather confusing set of rules, since the actual rules are rarely all stated together.

Anyway, the actual point of this post is not to just outline what the Mariners could do, but specifically what I would do if I were the Mariners interim GM right now. Any post-July 31 discussion must start with placing players on waivers. Here are the players I would put out there, and what I would hope/expect to happen:

1. Kenji Johjima - His contract is horrible, and even though Jeff Clement is yet to light up major league pitching, he is a safe bet to be a better backstop than Johjima for the next three years. At the very least, Clement will be a much cheaper ineffective catcher. Given Johjima's bad contract, I would expect him to pass through waivers, and I also doubt anyone would want him in a trade. I wouldn't cut Johjima either, so in the end this waiver move is one that would probably never be known publicly. But, if a team does claim Johjima, I would let them take him, solely because I want to get his contract off the books. Why not test the waters risk-free, to see if some team will take Kenji's contract?
2. Miguel Batista - I could copy what I just wrote for Johjima. Batista goes on the waiver wire for the same reasons: he is rather pricey, and rather ineffective. However, Miguel still has pretty good velocity, and he does have post-season experience, as well as considerable experience as a starter and reliever. Furthermore, his contract does not have as many years remaining as Kenji's, so it is not quite as bad. I still would not expect a team to claim Batista, but I think he has a much better chance of being claimed than Kenji. Once again, if a team claims him, I would let them have him. If Miguel passes through waivers, I would strongly consider releasing him.
3. Miguel Cairo - I would much rather use Cairo's roster spot on an additional September call-up than on him for the remainder of the season. I do think there is a very good chance someone would claim him, and I would let him go. If he passes through waivers, then I would release him. I would call up Tug Hulett to replace Cairo, and add Matt Tuiasosopo to the 40-man roster, and call him up on September 1.
4. Willie Bloomquist - Willie has stunningly little power, and he thinks he might be able to grab a starting job somewhere next year through free agency. Even though he is a local product, I think the chances of him leaving in the off-season are pretty good, and I would not be heart-broken since he brings absolutely no power to the table. However, a guy with his versatility, his speed, a .280 batting average, and .380 on-base may be appealing to a contender looking to bolster their bench for cheap. If Bloomquist were claimed, I would work out a trade with whomever claimed him, keeping in mind that there may be a compensatory draft pick coming if he is lost in free agency, given how much he has played this year.
5. Jarrod Washburn - Washburn is probably the most interesting player waiver-wise the Mariners have. He was close to getting dealt at the deadline, so there is obviously some interest in him. If the Yankees were willing to take his whole salary at the deadline and it was the prospect package that held up the deal, they certainly would claim him on waivers. My suspicion is that some team would claim Jarrod, and if he is claimed, I would work out a trade. Of all the players I have on this list, I think a Washburn move is the most realistic.

Hypothetically, let's suppose that Cairo, Bloomquist, and Washburn are claimed, and that Cairo is allowed to go, a trade is worked out with the team that claims Washburn, and Bloomquist is pulled back from waivers and kept. This means that Kenji and Miguel passed through waivers. Given this hypothetical, this would be my plan through August:

1. I already said that Tug Hulett would replace Miguel Cairo on the roster, so that was basically given in this scenario.
2. A Bloomquist/Hulett platoon at shortstop could work surprisingly well, and I would recommend that Riggleman try it. In AAA, Hulett has destroyed righties but struggled against lefties (though in limited opportunities), while Willie has been noticably better against lefties this year. As much as I like Betancourt, he really needs to learn to take a few pitches, and I think a legitimate benching may be the best way to get across the message at this point.
3. As a side note, especially with Bloomquist in a platoon at shortstop, I would put Jeremy Reed in left field, Ichiro back in center, and Balentien in right. Raul Ibanez stays in the lineup as the DH. This gets the two M's outfielders with best range in left and center (where Safeco field is most spacious), and the two M's outfielders with the strongest arms in center and right (where the longest outfield throws come from). That outfield alignment may do more for to improve the pitching than anything else.
4. Getting rid of Washburn is key, because I want to take a look at Brandon Morrow, Ryan Rowland-Smith, and Ryan Feierabend as starters. I would call up Rowland-Smith to take Washburn's place, because I think he is the closest to ready (unless Erik Bedard is ready to come off the DL). Miguel Batista and R.A. Dickey are the next two out of the rotation once Feierabend and Morrow are ready, and to make room for both of them I would send down Jared Wells and and release Miguel Batista (the salary hit is easier to take with Washburn's contract off the books). If Erik Bedard gets healthy, I would strongly consider a six-man rotation the rest of the way, just to see RRS, Morrow, and Feierabend all get regular starts.

This is a very realistic hypothetical scenario, and could be executed by an interim GM. These are not moves that greatly alter the talent pool for future years, but do allow for better evaluation of prospects and a little more payroll flexibility. However, this is a team that held on to Jose Vidro until August, so I am not holding my breath.

Sexson Latest Casualty

The Mariners called up two players from Tacoma today, INF Tug Hulett and RHP Jared Wells. Tug has been playing primarily second base, but he has also played some shortstop and has limited experience at third, first, and even in the outfield. He primarily batted lead-off for the Rainiers, and while he will not be a star, he is a pretty solid player. He has more power than his size implies, and he has good plate discipline. Hulett was the player the M's received when they traded 1B Ben Broussard to the Rangers. Jared Wells was a promising prospect in the Padres system until he started to suck, to put it bluntly. He still possesses plus stuff, and he has pitched better since joining Tacoma. He was the player the Mariners received from San Diego when they traded RHP Cha Seung Baek to them after designating Baek for assignment.

Now to the real news. The new players took two spots vacated by much more noteworthy moves. There was room for Wells once the M's placed Erik Bedard on the 15-day DL. Popular thought was that Bedard would go on the DL to clear a spot for Felix's return, so either Wells is only around for a few days, or another move is in the works (my hunch is that Batista might head to the DL). As for Hulett, he takes the spot formerly filled by Richie Sexson. After weeks of speculation and a year and a half of lackluster production, Big Richie finally became the latest casualty in this debacle of a season. The timing was a little odd, especially with Richie being on a mild hot streak by Richie standards, but Jim Riggleman said he could tell that Richie was not pleased with being benched, and Riggleman did not see how he would get off the bench much with how the next couple weeks were going to go. Whatever the reason, this move seemed inevitable ever since the Mariners started making major changes.

Richie became a popular target for 2008's frustrations, but the collapse is not his fault. This team won 88 games a year ago with him underperforming just as badly at first base last year. He worked hard to regain his old form, but he just could not find it. Despite the boos and benchings, Richie never complained. The closest he did was apparently on Tuesday night, when Riggleman felt his body language showed frustration over not playing. Frankly, I would be concerned if an everyday player did not react somehow to being benched. It is easy to point a finger at the man hitting around .200 with minimal power and limited defense making $15.5 million, because the team definitely did not get its money's worth. However, Richie did not become lazy, or a clubhouse cancer. He tried as hard as he could. The reality is that Richie is what he is at this point. This is more than a slump. This is what a player past his prime looks like.

Fingers should be pointed at the man who signed Richie Sexson, Bill Bavasi. I guess they already have been pointed since he was fired, but the contract he offered Sexson was doomed the second Richie inked it. Let's flash back to when Richie was a free agent. He was coming off of a major shoulder injury that cost him nearly all of his lone year as a Diamondback. However, while with the Brewers, he had developed into a feared power hitter. Despite the shoulder injury, Bill Bavasi decided to sign the then 30-year-old Sexson to a whopping 4 year, $50 million contract.

It is easy to say that was a bad decision now, but even then it should have been obvious that this was a bad contract. Even if the M's had full confidence that the shoulder was fine (and it turned out to be), most teams were concerned, and I doubt the Mariners really needed to give Sexson as much money as they did. Plus, injury not withstanding, Richie in his prime was still 6'8" and struck out a ton. He offset both of these significant disadvantages by developing great plate discipline and shortening his stroke. Though his height is a major source for his power, the list of hitters as tall as Richie Sexson succeeding is painfully short. This game is just tougher for taller hitters, likely due to a larger strike zone to cover and naturally longer swings. So, was it reasonable to expect Richie Sexson to continue to produce at a high level as he entered the twilight of his physical prime? The answer is obvious now, but given how difficult it was going to be for Richie to beat father time with his body type, the Mariners should have known back when they signed him that there was a decent chance he would not age gracefully.

What is even worse is that the previous Mariners regime was completely oblivious to all the warning signs. In 2005, Richie's first year with the M's, he was fantastic. Even in 2006 he was still good, but he slipped noticeably. Some noticed, but then-manager Mike Hargrove did not bat an eye, claiming Richie was here to hit home runs and nothing else mattered. True, Richie still swatted his share of bombs. But, at the very least an observant baseball person should have furrowed their brows over the drop-off, noticed the complete lack of first baseman in the farm system that precipitated Richie's signing in the first place, and drafted a first base prospect. Year after year the Mariners did not, all while Richie went from regressing to plummeting off the face of the earth.

That is how the Mariners got to this point. That is how a team dumps a light-hitting first baseman making $15.5 million with no legitimate replacement. I am rooting for Bryan LaHair, and I have to give credit to Bavasi and scouting director Bob Fontaine for finding a talent as good as him in the 35th round of a draft. But, he is not starting material, and I do not think he ever will be. Marshall Hubbard and Johan Limonta both offer a little promise in AA, but the fact remains that the previous leadership was relying on fringe prospects to pan out in the farm system. They never had a legitimate long-term plan for first base despite every indication that disaster would strike if the issue was not addressed. Bavasi and company seemed to all close their eyes, cover their ears, and tell themselves over and over, "Richie hits the ball a country mile. Richie hits the ball a country mile. Richie hits the ball a country mile..."

Well, Richie did hit the ball a country mile, but he does not so much anymore. It is as if he continues to get older. Fancy that. Thanks, Bill Bavasi. Thanks alot.

Mariners Announce Spring Invitees

Yesterday the Mariners announced that they had invited 18 players not on the 40-man roster to spring training. For any of these players to make the team a player would have to be dropped from the 40-man roster and thus potentially lost to another team for nothing, so it stacks the odds against any of them. However, just last year P Brandon Morrow (75/81), P Arthur Rhodes (76/72), and C Jamie Burke (69/70) were in these players' shoes and made the opening day roster.

Every year three types of players are on this list: prized prospects that will not make the ballclub, but that the team wants to introduce to the major league environment, prospects the front office wants to take a closer look at, and veterans of either the majors or minors who could make it on the opening day squad, but more than likely are ticketed for AAA as needed organizational depth. Though prospects tend to get the headlines, I enjoy looking at the veterans because they have the best chance to make the team, and also because it showcases what I believe is Bavasi's greatest talent - finding players cast away by other teams that probably should not have been set free. He drives much nuts as a GM much of the time, but I admire his exceptional ability to find quality role players for cheap. Here is this year's list of spring training invitees:

P Phillipe Aumont (-/-) - Aumont definitely falls into the category of prized prospect with no chance to make the team. He will likely be compared to Morrow at some point, especially if he looks good in his first couple appearances, but he is much younger and even more inexperienced than Morrow was at this point last year. That being said, I am eager to get a chance to see how he does.

P Phillip Barzilla (59/63) - Barzilla is a 28-year-old lefty that had been in the Astros organization his whole career until now. He has major league experience, though only one-third of an inning's worth. I do not think he is much, but he was switched to the bullpen mid-season last year and posted a sub-1.00 ERA. I am guessing that is what prompted the Mariners to extend him an invite.

P Roy Corcoran (65/70) - Corcoran got cups of coffee in the majors in three different seasons with the Expos/Nationals, but spent all of last year in AAA at Albequerque, Florida's affiliate. He is a classic example of the kind of player Bavasi is great at finding. Corcoran is not a guy I would like to see working the late innings, but he is good enough to be a middle reliever on many ballclubs.

P Brodie Downs (56/66) - Downs is somewhere between "unique" and "intriguing." At 28 years old and a former 23rd round draftee, he does not seem to be exactly a prospect. However, he was drafted just last June, making him the only player besides Aumont invited to camp from the most recent draft class. His rating is the reflection of only 25.1 innings worth of work last season, so I do not know how well it reflects his actual ability. He is worth keeping an eye on.

P Stephen Kahn (50/68) - Kahn missed all of last season thanks to reconstructive knee surgery, so his rating is based on his 2006 numbers. A reliever, Kahn struck better than a batter per inning and kept his home run rate low, but also walked a bunch of batters and gave up a fair number of hits too. Much like Downs, he is a prospect the Mariners want to take a closer look at, but is quite unlikely to make the team.

P Kameron Mickolio (65/76) - I really like this guy, and so do the Mariners. He was drafted in the 18th round in 2006, but logged ample time in AAA last year and excelled. At 6'9" he is an imposing presence on the mound and has a bright future. Of all the prospects on this list, I think Mickolio has the best chance to make the team.

P Chris Reitsma (50/50) - Reitsma has really fallen off the table the last couple season, thanks in large part to injuries. If he has truly healed he may have some gas left in the tank and make a run at a spot in the bullpen. I think his chances are slim, but the real question is how much allegiance John McLaren has to him. If McLaren wants Reitsma on the roster, he will get every opportunity to make it.

P Arthur Rhodes (72/68) - Wisdom says that a pitcher in his late 30s coming off of major elbow surgery that made him miss all of last season would have almost no chance of making the team. However, this is Arthur Rhodes, and he is an exception for two reasons. First and foremost, McLaren remembers how dominant Rhodes was for the M's back in his prime, and without a doubt he would like to add Rhodes to the bullpen. However, beyond that, the numbers indicate that if he has recovered from the elbow surgery, he still has something to offer. Of all the veterans invited to camp, Rhodes has by far the best chance to stick.

P Robert Rohrbaugh (65/75) - Rohrbaugh has torn through the minors the past couple years rather quietly, only garnering attention the second half of last year when he was promoted to Tacoma and ultimately was named the Rainiers Pitcher of the Year. He was one of my darkhorses for the fifth starter spot until the M's signed Carlos Silva (75/74), but even without a spot to compete for on the roster, he will probably survive several cuts in spring training.

P Chris Tillman (46/78) - Many people are high on this former prep star, including the Mariners. They are treating him like a big-time prospect by inviting him to camp this year, though I think he is ultimately going to start the year in AA. I am not as sold on him as most, though I like his potential and do think he could take a big stride forward in 2008.

P Jake Woods (51/57) - He was a quality middle reliever in 2006, but struggled mightily in 2007. If he is sticking in the M's organization past March, he will be in Tacoma.

C Jair Fernandez (42/71) - Jair got invited most likely because the Mariners needed more catcher to handle all the pitchers. He is only 20 years old, but did not log even 200 at-bats in low A Wisconsin last year. He will likely be cut once enough pitchers are cut.

C Adam Moore (52/71) - Moore also gets an invite because of a need for catchers, but he may very well have received an invite regardless. He opened many eyes with an impressive season at Inland Empire, though it should be noted he was a bit old for the league at 23. He should open up the season in AA, and if he duplicates his performance last year he will become an even more interesting prospect.

C Brant Ust (56/61) - Much like Fernandez, Ust is here just for the pitchers. He is a 28-year-old utility player who did not even play much catcher last year in Tacoma. Still, it is a nice gesture by the team to give this career minor-leaguer a chance to play in a major league camp, even if it ends up being for only a few weeks.

2B Tug Hulett (66/72) - Hulett is a new-comer to the organization acquired in the Ben Broussard (73/72) trade. Hulett is not a star in the making, but he would be a good bench player. I would not be surprised if he hung around until one of the final cuts.

3B Mark Kiger (63/74) - Though Kriger has never appeared in a regular season MLB game, he has appeared in the playoffs with the A's in 2006! In fact, according to the Elias Sports Bureau, Kiger is the only player in major league history to make his major league debut in the playoffs. Last year he was in the Mets organization, where he spent most of his time in AA. He posted great numbers, though at 27 years of age he was rather old for the league. Kiger has played mostly third in his career, though he has played some at all infield spots. Kiger is another example of a quality role player that Bavasi has a knack for finding. He likely will not make the M's, but he should provide depth down in Tacoma.

3B Matt Tuiasosopo (51/70) - Tui has been invited several times to major league camp now, and it would still be stunning if he made the team. With that being said, I expect the team to give him a longer look this spring training, because I think he will ultimately start the year in Tacoma.

OF Bronson Sardinha (62/68) - Sardinha is a former first-round pick of the New York Yankees, and finally made the majors last year as a September call-up, appearing in only 10 games. His numbers were disappointing in AAA last year, but his combination of power and speed is intriguing, and at 24 years old he certainly could bounce back. Bronson is this year's version of OF Charlton Jimerson (59/69), except a little younger and a little better.

Broussard Dealt to Rangers

Last Wednesday, the deadline to tender arbitration-eligible players, the Mariners traded 1B Ben Broussard (74) to the Rangers for 2B Tug Hulett (66/77). Though this is a small deal, there was much more behind it than a simple swap of talent. Most likely, the M's were not going to tender Ben Broussard, which means he would have become a free agent. So, that means they were likely shopping him around to see if anyone was interested in acquiring him. Obviously the Rangers were, and they gave up a relatively anonymous minor-leaguer.

First off, while Tug Hulett may not have superstar written all over him, he is a better player than the type that usually are received in trades like this. Tug provides some needed depth in the infield, and he is good enough to push Jose Lopez for the starting job in spring training. He will be a welcome addition to the team. More importantly though, with Ben gone there now is a need for a left-handed bat on the bench, preferably with a little power. That job should be Jeff Clement's (70/83) to lose. McLaren was clearly impressed by him in September, and the general consensus seems to be that his bat is too good to leave in the minors at this point. Clement will most likely be the third catcher, but the team can afford to do that if they keep both Willie Bloomquist (68) and Mike Morse (69/81).

The Broussard trade may have been small, but it gave many implications about the complexion of the 2008 Mariners. It looks like the youth movement is going to continue, which is worth getting excited about. The system is a little better than advertised, and it looks like baseball will begin to find that out.